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☆ Comfortably cool US CPI suggests aggressive Fed hikes taking hold
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

read moreMARKET REACTION:STOCKS: S&P 500 futures turned sharply higher and were up 3.1%BONDS: The yield on 10-year Treasury notes tumbled and was down 21.5 basis points at 3.927%; The two-year U.S. Treasury yield was down 26.6 basis points at 4.362%. And I think the expectation now is the Fed hikes rates 50 basis points in December. ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK"A softer than expected inflation report is acting as a tailwind for markets. Next, we immediately turned our attention to the CPI and that clearly came in better than expected. "Given just this data, it would allow the Fed to raise by only 50 basis points rather than 75 at the next meeting.

☆ 3 Markets rejoice after surprisingly cool inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +9 min

YUNG-YU MA, CHIEF INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, BMO WEALTH MANAGEMENT, CHICAGO“The better-than-expected CPI numbers are welcome but show a lot of underlying volatility. What Powell said is that we are going to need a few more reads on good CPI data before he can say we’re done." Shelter is the main contributor to inflation and everyone should know by now that it’s a garbage indicator of where inflation is headed. ART HOGAN, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, B. RILEY WEALTH, NEW YORK"A softer than expected inflation report is acting as a tailwind for markets. “The good news is that we saw a significant sequential improvement, inflation is clearly moving in the right direction.

☆ Fed delivers fourth 75 bp hike, signals scale-back coming
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

This statement clearly suggests input from Vice Chair Brainard and opens the door for the Fed to slow down the pace of future rate hikes. Monetary policy today is not sufficiently tight enough. We’ll know when the Fed is done tightening; they’ll tell us by simply saying that monetary policy is sufficiently restrictive. “The last thing we need to see regarding what the Fed will do in the short run is the election. If there’s a sense that fiscal policy will be more cooperative with monetary policy, it will make the Fed’s job easier.”Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on shorter-dated Treasuries rise above those for longer-term ones. Here is a quick primer on what an inverted yield curve means, how it has predicted recession, and what it might be signaling now. The yield curve, which plots the return on all Treasury securities, typically slopes upward as the payout increases with the duration. "It's not unusual to get a yield curve inversion but it is unusual to get one of this magnitude. When the yield curve steepens, banks can borrow at lower rates and lend at higher rates.

☆ U.S. Q3 GDP rise burnishes soft landing case
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast GDP growth rebounding at a 2.4% rate. Exports will soon fade and domestic demand is getting crushed under the weight of higher interest rates. We expect the economy to enter a mild recession in the first half of next year." BRIAN JACOBSEN, SENIOR INVESTMENT STRATEGIST, ALLSPRING GLOBAL INVESTMENTS, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN“GDP was a weak bounce from the negative prints in Q1 and Q2. The Fed wants to see pain on Main Street.”Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News teamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Wall St drops as consumer data stokes inflation worry
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-15 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SummarySummary Companies JPM reports higher-than-expected Q3 profitS&P 500, Nasdaq post weekly declinesU.S. consumer sentiment edges up October; inflation ests. "The main thrust for the market right now is higher interest rates, higher inflation and the Fed is going to continue to move its fed funds target higher," said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial in Troy, Michigan. For the week, the Dow gained 1.15%, the S&P 500 lost 1.56% and the Nasdaq fell 3.11%. Analysts now expect third-quarter profits for S&P 500 companies to have risen just 3.6% from a year ago, much lower than an 11.1% increase expected at the start of July, according to Refinitiv data. The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 7 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 71 new highs and 235 new lows.

☆ Wall St drops as inflation worries persist
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., October 7, 2022. REUTERS/Brendan McDermidSummarySummary Companies JPM reports higher-than-expected Q3 profitS&P 500, Nasdaq poised for weekly declinesU.S. consumer sentiment edges up October; inflation ests. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterThe data came a day after a reading on consumer prices showed inflation remains stubbornly high. The Dow was on track to close out the week with a gain while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were poised for weekly declines. The S&P 500 posted 5 new 52-week highs and 5 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 56 new highs and 171 new lows.

☆ Reactions: US Sept CPI fortifies hawkish case in Fed inflation battle
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

FOREX: The dollar index turned 0.44% higherCOMMENTS:KEN POLCARI, MANAGING PARTNER, KACE CAPITAL ADVISORS, BOCA RATON, FLORIDA“Not good, hello – market collapsing. With a 3.5% unemployment rate, there's no way the Fed is going to stop raising rates until after the end of the year." The Fed has got to get a handle on inflation right now. RYAN DETRICK, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, CARSON GROUP, OMAHA“This is a yet another disappointing sign that inflation continues to stay stubbornly high. There are still two more CPI prints before the December meeting with the Fed, but for now, the pivot is on pause.

☆ S&P 500 falls to two-year low, bear market rally snuffed out
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Chuck Mikolajczak | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 touched a session low of 3,623.29, its lowest point on an intraday basis since Nov. 30, 2020. The index has tumbled more than 12% since Powell's speech and has shown little signs of stabilizing. Many analysts had looked at 3,900 as a strong technical support level for the index. Detrick said that coordinated hikes by multiple central banks left investors wondering how hawkish they all will end up being. Robert Pavlik, Senior Portfolio Manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut said he is looking at a worst case of 3,000 for the S&P as a support level.

☆ Aggressive Fed hikes rates another 75 bp, surprising no one
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

So this is a pretty hawkish 75 basis point increase when it comes to how the text reads." What it's telling us is that the Fed is expecting to rates to continue to move higher into 2023." There's a camp that says whatever the Fed guides to has typically been the floor and not the ceiling. This communication is basically signaling that the Fed's going to continue to be aggressive and remain hawkish. Not only did the Fed hike another unusually large 75 bps today, it is basically saying it will do it again in November.

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