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☆ Fed economists say the central bank will have to cause serious pain to Americans and the economy if it sticks to its current path
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

In the Fed minutes released this week, the central bank's own economists have started to sound the alarm on a recession. Jerome Powell, for his part, has insisted that the Fed's 2% inflation target is set in stone. The jobless rate today stands at 3.4%. We will have other things to worry about at that point besides whether the Fed's inflation target should be 2.0 or 2.75 percent." How realistic do you think the Fed's 2% inflation target is?

☆ Comerica Bank's chief economist breaks down why home prices will continue their slide through most of 2023 — and shares why California's biggest markets will see some of the country's largest price de
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Housing prices around the US will see declines in the high single-digits, says Bill Adams. Los Angeles and the San Francisco Bay Area in California face unique challenges, he said. That downward trend will continue into the fourth quarter this year, Adams said, and peak-to-trough prices declines will end up being in the high single-digits. According to Kiplinger, Los Angeles, Orange County, San Francisco, and Oakland are all in the top 11 most expensive cities in the US. According to S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller data, home prices in Los Angeles are down 7.5% from their peak, and prices in San Francisco are down 14.2%.

☆ Stock futures rise on Wednesday evening: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-22 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 0.6%. Nasdaq futures got a boost from Nvidia, which rose more than 8% after hours on better-than-expected fourth quarter earnings and revenue. Inflation "remained well above" the Fed's 2% target and the labor market "remained very tight, contributing to continuing upward pressures on wages and prices," according to the minutes. Additionally, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic will speak at an event hosted by the Atlanta Fed Thursday morning. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will take part in a fireside chat in the afternoon.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: U.S. stocks don't seem bothered by inflation, ignore jump in retail sales
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. It's as if investors aren't concerned about inflation and higher interest rates anymore. It appears that the prospect of sustained economic growth is injecting optimism into stocks too. Recent economic activity and market movement are forcing economists and investors to reconsider the effect of interest rates. The higher cost of borrowing typically slows economic growth by curtailing spending and increasing unemployment which, in turn, depress stocks.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: U.S. stocks don't seem concerned about inflation, disregard jumping retail sales
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

☆ Inflation has cooled, but investors risk being caught off guard by a 'head fake' that could kill the latest stock-market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-28 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Stocks are off to a strong start in 2023 after last year's selloff, with cooling inflation a pillar of support. But there's stickiness in services inflation, and that poses downside risks for equities, analysts said. Wage growth has eased but an even slower pace would suit the Fed's inflation-fighting goal. The Fed has been zeroing in on wage growth, Draho said. Annual average hourly wage growth was 4.6% in December.

☆ US stocks jump as investors cheer upbeat GDP data and strong Tesla earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks jumped Thursday as investors cheered strong GDP data and Tesla earnings. GDP grew 2.9% over the fourth quarter, above estimates of 2.8%. GDP grew 2.9% annualized over the fourth quarter, according to the Commerce Department, above the 2.8% estimated by economists. Tesla, meanwhile, reported a record revenue of $24.32 billion over the last quarter, above estimates of $24.16 billion. "Headline GDP was very strong beating consensus suggesting robust economic activity and if recession were to materialize a softer recession.

S&P Global's Flash U.S. Composite Output Index last month rose to 46.6, below a reading of 50 where growth begins. Companies reported soft demand amid still high inflation that remains a headwind to customer spending, the report showed. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed slightly lower after bellwethers including 3M (MMM.N), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ.N), Verizon (VZ.N) and GE (GE.N) reported mixed results. The Dow rose as Traveler Cos (TRV.N), American Express (AXP.N) and JPMorgan Chase provided almost half its gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) rose 0.31%, the S&P 500 (.SPX) lost 0.07% and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) dropped 0.27%.

☆ Here's how the U.S. economy could escape a recession in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +12 min

The U.S. economy heads into 2023 facing what might be the most anticipated recession in history. That basically means some parts of the economy will feel like they're in a recession while others won't. "Some areas of the economy may not feel like they actually are in recession. "For certain parts of the economy, it will feel like a very deep recession. For other parts, it will feel like a healthy growth economy, particularly in the parts of the economy where we see strong demand," she said.

☆ The worst of inflation is likely over, but the worst for the economy probably isn't
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-13 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

While the inflation rate is still extraordinarily high, there's widespread agreement that the peak has passed. In fact, the only sector where interest rate increases have seemed to hit so far has been housing. So with lots of policy tightening still in the pipeline, softer inflation's accompanying economic slowdown is yet to come. The Fed's critics worry that the rate increases may have gone too far and could be a severe weight on the economy once inflation wears off. However, following the CPI report traders priced in a lower "terminal rate," or end point for the Fed rate hikes.

☆ Premarket stocks: Consumers are keeping the economy afloat... for now
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

What’s happening: Americans appear to be indulging in a healthy dose of retail therapy despite stubbornly high inflation and the possibility of a recession ahead. Consumer spending is a major driver of the economy, and the last two months of the year can account for about 20% of total retail sales — even more for some retailers, according to NRF. But when the Federal Reserve is actively trying to squash high inflation rates, they risk becoming a fly in the ointment. “Consumers’ spending is more or less unfazed not only by high inflation, but also the rate hikes intended to get prices under control,” economists at Wells Fargo wrote. The high rate of spending could agitate investors in this good-news-is-bad-news economy because it adds to inflationary pressures.

☆ Premarket stocks: Wall Street picks hope over reality after inflation report
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN Business —Stocks surged on Thursday in their best day since 2020 after a key inflation indicator came in softer than expected. Investors broke out their party hats as they interpreted the report to mean that peak inflation may finally be behind us. Crypto-advocates were hoping that rising interest and inflation rates would drive investors away from the dollar and into alternative assets like gold and Bitcoin. Then, central banks started raising rates to fight inflation, and the dollar strengthened significantly, seducing investors as the ultimate safe haven. Mortgage rates have risen throughout most of 2022, spurred by the Federal Reserve’s regime of interest rate hikes.

☆ The Fed can pivot when these 5 key conditions are met as inflation pressure sets a high bar for cutting rates, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-03 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Federal Reserve faces a high bar before it can start cutting rates, according to Comerica Bank. In addition to slower inflation, other conditions must be met as well, chief economist Bill Adams said. That increased inflationary momentum sets a high bar for the Fed to conclude its tightening campaign and an even higher bar to cut rates, Adams added. In particular, he noted that the eventual peak in the fed fund rates may be higher than previously anticipated as inflation has remained persistent. And a key component in today's current high inflation rate is energy, which Adams said would figure into the Fed's considerations.

☆ Home prices in these 8 markets are falling the fastest as the US housing market slows down at the quickest pace ever
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

It's official: home prices in the US are in a downward trend on a national level. This is killing buyers' ability to afford higher prices. Housing affordability — when taking into account home prices, mortgage rates, and incomes — is now at one of its lowest levels in decades, according to data from the National Association of Realtors. Scott Buchta, the head of fixed income strategy at Brean Capital, also said in a memo on Wednesday that home price declines would continue, eventually falling on a year-over-year basis. Many see a so-called "Fed pivot" back to dovish policy as necessary for mortgage rates to fall.

☆ The most popular US mortgage now costs Americans more than it has in 21 years as rates top 7%
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-26 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The US 30-year fixed mortgage hit 7.16% in the week ending October 21, Mortgage Bankers Association data showed Wednesday. Contracts for a 30-year fixed mortgage climbed 22 basis points to 7.16% in the week leading up to October 21. It's the steepest drop since March 2009, and another data point illustrating the US housing market's slowdown. Between climbing mortgage rates and a still-tight home inventory, a housing correction is already underway, according to Comerica's chief economist Bill Adams. All this, Adams predicted, comes as the Fed effectively forces the housing market into a sharp downturn, which will drag on the broader economy.

☆ More giant rate hikes are coming as inflation stays at 4-decade highs. Here's what UBS, the world's largest wealth manager, says investors should own now.
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-14 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The latest inflation data makes it clear that more interest rate hikes are coming. UBS Global Wealth Management explains what investors should do as rates rise and the economy slows. After the government reported another 40-year high in year-over-year inflation, investors are even more confident that the Federal Reserve will implement another 75 basis-point hike in November, and do it again in December. For at least a little while, nothing is going to deter the Fed, according to Mark Haefele, the chief investment officer for UBS Global Wealth Management. "We expect the markets to remain volatile in the coming months, and we maintain our tilt toward value and defensives," Haefele wrote in a note to clients.

Inflation appears poised to gobble up this year's Thanksgiving budgets, as U.S. food prices continue to soar. Leading the food price increases over the past 12 months: margarine, up 44%; flour and prepared flour mixes, up 24.2%; frozen and refrigerated bakery products like pies, tarts and turnovers, up 20.4%. Uncooked turkey prices were up 17%, and processed fruits and vegetables were up 16%. Turkey prices have seen a particularly acute impact from inflation and a bird flu outbreak. Other factors driving food prices higher are the costs of energy and labor.

The annual U.S. inflation rate was little changed in September, hitting 8.2% year-over-year compared with August's 8.3% reading as the pace of price increases remains at multidecade highs, causing pain for many U.S. households. Inflation remains at the top of Americans' minds going into the last quarter of a year that has seen across-the-board volatility in food, gasoline and energy prices. So the burden of bridling a stubborn inflation rate sits on the doorstep of the Federal Reserve. "There's definitely still a Russia-Ukraine effect keeping food prices elevated," he said. "Food price inflation is going to stay a problem in US for next couple of months," Adams said.

☆ Home-prices growth slowed by the most on record in 'forceful deceleration' in July, S&P Case-Shiller says
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-27 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Growth in house prices slowed at the fastest rate on record in July, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index released Tuesday. Mortgage rates have jumped to more than 6% this year as the Fed raises interest rates. "Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July's report reflects a forceful deceleration," Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI, said in the report. "The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index." The Fed last week raised interest rates by another 75 basis points to bring the fed funds rate to a range of 3% to 3.25%.

☆ US stocks drop for a 3rd day as Treasury yields spike and recession fears grow after Fed rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-22 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Bond yields continued to mount higher as the market prepares to see more Fed rate hikes. The Fed-policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.1% for a fresh 15-year high. Stocks came under pressure again on Thursday as Treasury yields rose, highlighting investor concerns about a Fed-induced recession as the central bank battles high inflation. The Fed-policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield rose to 4.1% for a fresh 15-year high. "It's possible that the unemployment rate could gently glide higher and wages cool without an outright recession—but it's never happened before," he said.

☆ Lower gas prices push consumer confidence to highest level since May
▼ + stars: | 2022-08-30 | by ( Martha C. White For Cnn Business | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

CNN —Lower gas prices helped consumer confidence bounce back in August, breaking a three-month stretch of worsening sentiment. “Expectations are more sensitive to movements in gas prices,” Shepherdson said in a research note, adding that the continued slide in gas prices could be a tailwind for the survey results. However, while the consumer confidence number is promising, “this is one month,” she cautioned. Consumer confidence is a pretty fickle reading.”The big risk is that what the gas pump giveth, the gas pump taketh away, as Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, told CNN Business in an opinion column published Tuesday. “It is a real drain on disposable income [and] it ends up acting as a depressant on consumer confidence,” Stovall said.

☆ Autos rebound fuels U.S. manufacturing output gain in March
▼ + stars: | 2022-04-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Overall industrial production increased 0.9% last month, keeping pace with February's upwardly revised pace, the Federal Reserve said on Friday. Manufacturing, which accounts for 11.9% of the American economy, has benefited from a shift in spending to goods from services during the COVID-19 pandemic. Even as consumer spending shifts back toward services in the months ahead as COVID caseloads ease, "vehicle sales have brighter prospects this year than other categories of durable consumer goods." Capacity use for the manufacturing sector increased to 78.7% in March, the highest level since 2007, from 78.1% in February. Its Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to a four-month high of 24.6 after a reading of negative 11.8 in March.

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