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ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was up by over two basis points to 4.4374%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.8626% after rising by nearly three basis points. U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Wednesday as investors considered the latest comments from Federal Reserve speakers about the outlook for inflation and interest rates. A series of Fed officials on Tuesday urged patience when it comes to rate cuts as inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. On Wednesday, further Fed officials are set to give remarks and minutes from the central bank's latest meeting are due to be released.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Susan Collins, Raphael Bostic Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federal Reserve, Boston Fed, Atlanta Fed
"I think the message that's coming through is that they have no idea what's going on," Howard said on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Wednesday. Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Tuesday said that he needed to see further data evidence that inflation was softening before supporting rate cuts. Waller's comments were echoed by other Fed officials on Tuesday, including Boston Fed President Susan Collins. 'A credibility problem'But Fed officials have not come out with a clear message about their expectations or to address why inflation remains elevated, GAM's Howard said. "And now [policymakers] think inflation is coming down but its not coming down fast enough," he said.
Persons: Valerie Plesch, Julian Howard, Howard, Christopher Waller, Waller's, Susan Collins, GAM's Howard, They've Organizations: Eccles Federal, Bloomberg, Getty, Federal, GAM, Fed, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Boston Fed, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: Washington , DC, U.S, Washington
Oil storage drums stacked in the Keihin industrial area of Kawasaki, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, on Monday, April 15, 2024. Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Tuesday, with investors anticipating higher-for-longer U.S. inflation and interest rates will depress consumer and industrial demand. "Fears of weaker demand led to selling as the prospect of Fed rate cut became more distant," said analyst Toshitaka Tazawa at Fujitomi Securities. Lower interest rates reduce borrowing costs, freeing up funds which could boost economic growth and demand for oil. OPEC+ could extend some voluntary output cuts if demand fails to pick up, people with knowledge of the matter previously told Reuters.
Persons: Toshitaka Tazawa, Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Raphael Bostic, Ebrahim Raisi, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Mohammed Bin Salman, Fujitomi's Tazawa Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, Federal, Fujitomi Securities, Atlanta Fed, Reuters, Saudi Arabia's Crown, Iranian, Investors, Organization of, Petroleum Locations: Kawasaki, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, Saudi, OPEC
Stock futures are near flat Monday night after the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at an all-time high. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost just 27 points, while S&P 500 futures also sat near its flatline. Those moves come after a mixed day on Wall Street. But the blue-chip Dow slipped almost 200 points, or 0.5%. Monday's action follows a notable week on Wall Street amid renewed hopes about the state of inflation and monetary policy.
Persons: Dow, Jamie Dimon, Keith Buchanan, Christopher Waller, Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Palo Alto Networks, LSEG, Nvidia, JPMorgan, Globalt Investments, Federal, Richmond Fed, Atlanta Fed, Traders
Wealthy Americans are starting to spend more carefully
  + stars: | 2024-05-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
A robust stock market coupled with rising home values have boosted Americans’ wealth from 2019 through 2022, according to a Federal Reserve report on household finances. There’s been some evidence of wealthy Americans growing cautious in the latest round of company earnings results. Federal Reserve officials Michael Barr, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson and Raphael Bostic deliver remarks. Federal Reserve officials Christopher Waller, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Michael Barr, Loretta Mester and Susan Collins deliver remarks. The Federal Reserve release minutes from its May policymaking meeting.
Persons: they’ve, , ” Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, There’s, ” Jonathan Akeroyd, Moet, The Beverly Hilton, Michael Kovac, LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, , Jacobson, ’ Ariel Barnes, Barnes, ” Barnes, Baby Boomer, Xers, Matt Egan, Read, Michael Barr, Christopher Waller, Philip Jefferson, Raphael Bostic, John Williams, Loretta Mester, Susan Collins, Robin, Ralph Lauren, Booz Allen Hamilton, Buckle Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Federal, Fed, Hartford Funds, CNN, Burberry, The Beverly, The Beverly Hilton Hotel, Walmart, Royal Caribbean Cruises, Jackson State University, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Palo Alto Networks, Urban Outfitters, NVIDIA, National Statistics, National Association of Realtors, Reserve, Intuit, US Labor Department, Chicago Fed, Global, US Commerce Department, Atlanta Fed, Booz, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, British, Americas, Beverly Hills , California, Jackson , Mississippi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Palo, Ross, Burlington
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFormer Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart: We might see one or two rate cuts this yearFormer Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss his expectations from the Fed, the state of the economy, and more.
Persons: Dennis Lockhart Organizations: Former Atlanta Fed, Atlanta Fed, Fed
ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was up by less than one basis point 4.3788%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.7799% after dipping by just over one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields held steady on Friday as investors considered the state of the economy as they digested the week's economic data. Investors weighed the state of the U.S. economy and the path ahead for monetary policy after the latest economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials. Fed officials in recent weeks have indicated caution when it comes to monetary policy plans, especially regarding interest rate cuts.
Persons: Dow Jones, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed Locations: U.S
Typically, price increases are a slow-moving process, so it is rare to see core inflation accelerate this much this quickly. The Survey of Professional Forecasters has found longer-run expectations for inflation have leveled out at 2% — the Fed's target. These one-offs have had an outsize impact on the overall inflation picture. Ahead of 2024, the contribution from acyclical components to core inflation was essentially zero. The strong growth in private demand suggests that second-quarter GDP could be even more robust.
Persons: I've Organizations: America, Federal Reserve, PCE, Atlanta Fed Locations: Real
Gig work, in particular ride-hailing for companies like Uber and Lyft, is getting more popular. AdvertisementMore and more Americans are taking up gig work for companies like Uber and Lyft — in part because some have fewer options to land high-paying jobs. Additionally, BofA found that people with ride-hailing income earned, on average, more a month than those who did delivery gig work. Vacation rental was the highest-earning gig BofA measured, but this is only accessible to people with a home to rent out. While some young people could value the supplementary income gig work can provide — particularly if they're struggling to pay the bills — others may end up disappointed.
Persons: Uber, , Lyft, BofA, it's, they've, Kate Bahn, X, Gen, they're Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Bank of America Institute, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Institute for Women's, Research, Atlanta Fed, millennials
New York CNN —The Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation reading is due Friday morning. Investors are nervously awaiting the report after first-quarter US GDP came in softer than expected Thursday. Stocks tumbled as the slowdown in GDP, coupled with stubbornly high inflation data, stoked fears of stagflation. Wall Street earlier this year expected that the central bank would ease rates as many as six times in 2024, beginning in March. Yellen said the weaker reading was not “concerning,” mentioning that measures of underlying growth were strong in Thursday’s report.
Persons: Stocks, , Ayako Yoshioka, Janet Yellen, Alessandra Galloni, Alicia Wallace, ” Yellen, , we’ve, Yellen, Read, Freddie Mac, Bryan Mena, Lawrence Yun Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Gross, Commerce Department, Atlanta, Fed, Thursday’s, Group, Traders, Bank of America, Reuters, National Association of Realtors Locations: New York, Yellen
Americans are falling behind on their payments
  + stars: | 2024-04-25 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
Americans are already struggling to keep up with their credit card payments. Strong consumer spending has buoyed the US economy through the Fed’s aggressive hiking cycle that has brought interest rates to a 23-year high. Economists say that Fed officials look closely at Americans’ ability to make their payments. Nunes, himself a former Republican congressman from California, pointed to how Trump Media has been among the most expensive stocks to borrow. “This is particularly troubling given that ‘naked’ short selling often entails sophisticated market participants profiting at the expense of retail investors,” the Trump Media CEO wrote.
Persons: New York CNN —, Austan Goolsbee, ’ ”, , Ramon Laguarta, Matt Egan, Devin Nunes, ” Nunes, Nunes, Read, Hanna Ziady, Colm Kelleher, Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Chicago Federal, Society for, New York Fed, ISI, PepsiCo, Commerce Department, Atlanta Fed, Social, Trump Media, Trump Media & Technology Group, Truth Social, Financial Services, Republican, Traders, UBS, Credit Suisse Locations: New York, California, Switzerland, Swiss
Gross domestic product, the sum of all goods and services produced across the sprawling U.S. economy, is expected to post a 2.4% annualized growth rate for the first quarter, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. If that estimate is accurate, it would mark a step down from the 3.4% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 and just a touch less than last year's 2.5% full-year growth rate. "The U.S. economy is still very resilient, supported by a solid labor market that continues to support robust income growth and in turn, consumer spending activity," EY-Parthenon chief economist Gregory Daco said. "We are seeing a little bit of cooling in terms of the consumer spending momentum. But there isn't any form of retrenchment that would be alarming in terms of future income trends and in terms of future consumer spending trends."
Persons: Dow, Gregory Daco, Daco, Goldman Sachs, Goldman, Spencer Hill Organizations: Wall, Gross, Atlanta Federal, Commerce, Commerce Department Locations: U.S, Atlanta
US stocks traded mostly lower on Wednesday as traders eyed the release of first-quarter GDP data. AdvertisementUS stocks were mostly lower on Wednesday as traders prepared for the release of first-quarter GDP data and digested the latest round of corporate earnings. AdvertisementInvestors are also preparing to take in more earnings results, which have been resilient so far this quarter. Facebook parent Meta Platforms will report after the closing bell, while Microsoft and Alphabet will report results after the close on Thursday. Tesla shares jumped 11% higher on Wednesday after the carmaker's latest earnings report.
Persons: Tesla, Organizations: Service, Federal, Atlanta Fed, Fed, Facebook, Microsoft, Revenue Locations: Here's
The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.9622% after falling by more than two basis points. U.S. Treasury yields declined on Friday as investors considered the latest economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials, and considered what this could mean for monetary policy. Investors digested the latest economic data and remarks from policymakers as they considered the outlook for interest rates. Fed officials have in recent days and weeks indicated that interest rates may remain elevated for longer than previously anticipated. Elsewhere, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said rate cuts may not come until the end of the year, and that he was "comfortable being patient," while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested rate cuts may not begin until 2025.
Persons: John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Jerome Powell Organizations: Treasury, U.S, Federal Reserve, New York Fed, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis, Investors, NBC News Locations: Philadelphia, Israel
Interest rates are currently nestled at a 23-year high after the Fed launched an aggressive rate-hiking campaign two years ago. Inflation is down considerably from a four-decade peak reached in the summer of 2022, but recent inflation reports have shown persistent price pressures in services and housing. First rate cut in the summer? Wall Street already wasn’t betting on a rate cut in May, but some analysts are estimating the first cut could come some time in the summer. Analysts at Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Nomura are estimating a first rate cut in July.
Persons: Jerome Powell, , Powell, , ” Quincy Krosby, don’t, hasn’t, Goldman Sachs, Philip Jefferson Organizations: Washington CNN, Federal, Wilson, Fed, Congress, LPL, Atlanta Fed, Goldman, JPMorgan, Nomura, Bank of America, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, Locations: Wells Fargo, rebalance
Energy prices, which have been a major factor in the past two months' inflation readings, pushed higher on signs of further geopolitical turmoil. Minutes released Wednesday from the March Fed meeting showed officials were concerned about higher inflation and looking for more convincing evidence it is on a steady path lower. Sticky price CPI entails items such as housing, motor vehicle insurance and medical care services, while flexible price is concentrated in food, energy and vehicle prices. "If that's the case, you would require a decent amount of unemployment to get inflation all the way to 2.0%." That's why Furman and others have pushed for the Fed to rethink it's determined commitment to 2% inflation.
Persons: Spencer Platt, , Stocks, Jason Furman, We've, Israel, Jim Paulsen, Wells, Substack, Paulsen, Furman, Barack Obama, Jamie Dimon, John Williams, Susan Collins, it's, Larry Fink Organizations: Getty, Investors, Dow Jones, CNBC, of Economic Advisers, New York Fed, National Federation of Independent Business, Labor Department, JPMorgan, University of Michigan's, Boston, Commerce, CPI, Citigroup, Fed, Atlanta Fed, Dallas Fed, Harvard, BlackRock Locations: Manhattan, New York City, Iran, Israel
Business Insider looked at how components of the labor market have settled down, like wage growth. And that more boring but steady labor market could be great news for workers and job seekers. The US could be in a Goldilocks job market. Job switchers are seeing higher wage growth than people staying, according to the 12-month moving average of median wage growth from the Atlanta Fed's Wage Growth Tracker. So what will happen to the Goldilocks job market?
Persons: Nick Bunker, Bunker, , That's, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter's, " Pollak, Pollak, Job, Julie Su, switchers, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James, Juliana Kaplan Organizations: Service, North America, BLS Locations: Atlanta
The US economy may have already stuck the soft landing, according to Evercore founder Roger Altman. AdvertisementThe US economy may have successfully avoided a recession and is already gliding toward a soft landing, according to Evercore founder Roger Altman. AdvertisementThose are big reasons stocks remain buoyant despite a sell-off this week as markets repriced expectations for Fed rate cuts. "Everything by and large is going right in the US economy," Altman said, noting that inflation is usually sticky as it falls from a peak. Arguably, the soft landing already has happened."
Persons: Roger Altman, Altman, , David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, CNBC, Atlanta Fed, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, The New, Fed, National Association for Business Economics Locations:
Three months of inflation data have brought those expectations back down to earth. "Not that you've put a pin in inflation getting to the Fed's target, but it's not happening imminently." The 2-year Treasury note , which is especially sensitive to Fed rate moves, jumped to 4.93%, an increase of nearly 0.2 percentage point. The pricing in of seven rate cuts earlier this year was completely at odds with indications from Fed officials. However, when policymakers in December raised their "dot plot" indicator to three rate cuts from two projected in September, it set off a Wall Street frenzy.
Persons: Michael M, Liz Ann Sonders, Charles Schwab, you've, There's, Today's, Phillip Neuhart, Joseph LaVorgna, Schwab's Sonders, Sonders Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Santiago, Getty, Federal, Labor, CPI, Fed, Traders, First, Bank Wealth, Dow Jones, Treasury, Nikko Securities, Atlanta Fed Locations: New York City
Investors are starting to take seriously the idea that the Fed might not cut interest rates in 2024. At this point, investors are viewing economic strength as ultimately good news for the stock market, if that means a recession is delayed. AdvertisementFrom seven, to three, to now potentially zero, projected interest rate cuts in 2024 are quickly going out of style on Wall Street. So a delay in interest rate cuts, on paper, would suggest lower stock prices. And better-than-expected first quarter profits have helped put a floor on a stock market that is trading near record highs, even as talks of interest rate cuts fade.
Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Ed Yardeni, Yardeni, Mohamed El, Torsten Slok, Slok, Ken Fisher Organizations: Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Bank of America
Noting a number of potential upside risks to inflation, Bowman said policymakers need to be careful not to ease policy too quickly. "Reducing our policy rate too soon or too quickly could result in a rebound in inflation, requiring further future policy rate increases to return inflation to 2 percent over the longer run." The speech, to the Shadow Open Market Committee, comes with markets on edge about the near-term future of Fed policy. Weighing inflation risks, she said that supply-side improvements that helped bring numbers down this year may not have the same impact going forward. Fed officials will get their next look at inflation data Wednesday, when the Labor Department releases the March consumer price index report.
Persons: Michelle Bowman, Bowman, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari Organizations: Federal, of Governors, Market, Committee, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Minneapolis Fed, Fed, Labor Department Locations: New York
3 things rattling markets this week
  + stars: | 2024-04-04 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
The S&P 500 tumbled the first two trading days of the new quarter and is down 0.8% for the week after paring back some of its losses on Wednesday. Some Fed officials revealed at the central bank’s policy meeting last month that they see fewer rate cuts than the three they forecast last December for 2024. Traders see a 63% expectation that the Fed cuts rates in June, a drop from more than 70% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “With Middle East tensions on the rise, OPEC+ supply side measures have pushed crude oil volatility down,” BofA strategists wrote in a Wednesday report. “Adding to a complex backdrop, we now estimate that improving economic growth expectations have helped push global oil markets into a deficit.”The price of gold has also climbed this week.
Persons: New York CNN — Stocks, , , Brent Schutte, Jerome Powell, , Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Brent, Michael Shvartsman, Gerald Shvartsman, Donald Trump’s, Matt Egan, “ Michael, ” Damian Williams, Bruce Garelick, ” Williams, ” Read, Joe Biden, Sean Lyngaas, China Nicholas Burns, Antony Blinken, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, Treasury, FactSet, Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, Hawkish, San Francisco Fed, Stanford University, Wednesday, • Cleveland Fed, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Traders, Organization of, Petroleum, West Texas, Brent, Bank of America, Trump Media, Trump Media & Technology Group, DWAC, Southern, of, Acquisition Corporation, , Microsoft, US, Department of Homeland Security, CNN Locations: New York, OPEC, Florida, of New York, Washington, China
The economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last 120 years. The ECRI's Leading Economic Index has started to decline in the past year, top economist Lakshman Achuthan said. AdvertisementThe US economy is flashing a classic recession warning that has only shown a false positive once in the last century, according to top economist Lakshman Achuthan. AdvertisementHiring strength seems to lie in non-discretionary areas of the market — which typically occurs before a recession, Achuthan said, as consumers prioritize needs over wants. Job growth in education and health rose around 4% last year, though job growth in every other sector trended near 0%, ECRI data shows.
Persons: Lakshman Achuthan, , Achuthan, David Rosenberg Organizations: Service, Cycle Research, Rosenberg Research, Atlanta Fed
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on April 02, 2024 in New York City. U.S. stock futures rose Wednesday night after the Dow Jones Industrial Average registered its third straight losing session. Investors' fears that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher longer have weighed on stocks this week. The result trounced Dow Jones' estimate of 155,000 and spurred investors' fears that rates may indeed stay higher longer. "I don't think that the Fed really has any reason to cut rates.
Persons: Dow, Jerome Powell, Raphael Bostic, Dow Jones, Larry Tentarelli Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Industrial, Dow, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, Federal, ADP, Treasury, Blue Locations: New York City . U.S, U.S
Federal Reserve Bank Chair Jerome Powell speaks during the Stanford Business, Government and Society Forum at Stanford University on April 03, 2024 in Stanford, California. Justin Sullivan | Getty ImagesFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday it will take a while for policymakers to evaluate the current state of inflation, keeping the timing of potential interest rate cuts uncertain. "We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent," he added. "Recent readings on both job gains and inflation have come in higher than expected," Powell said. The uncertainty about rates has caused some consternation in markets, with stocks falling sharply earlier this week as Treasury yields moved higher.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Justin Sullivan, Powell, Raphael Bostic, Mary Daly, Cleveland's Loretta Mester Organizations: Bank, Stanford Business, Government, Society, Stanford University, Getty, Federal, Market, Atlanta Fed, CNBC, San Francisco Fed, Group Locations: Stanford , California
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