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The rupee finished last week 1.2% lower at 82.27 per dollar, tumbling swiftly from trading in the 81-handle initially. Considering that, the rupee is still expected to be "stuck" in a range, they added. Meanwhile, India's benchmark government bond yield ended last week at 7.2982%, with the 8 bps gain its biggest weekly rise since late-September. Yields are expected to move in a narrow range of 7.26%-7.36%, with high chances of the upper end being tested, said a fixed income trader. After the Fed meeting, traders will also watch out for the central bank's dot plot to see where terminal rates could go.
MUMBAI, Dec 12 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was expected to weaken at the open on Monday as the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields ticked higher as U.S. data late last week affirmed the need for higher interest rates. "Equity outflows are a visible headwind (to the rupee), likely given optimism on China," Barclays wrote in a note. The dollar index was back above the 105-level, while the benchmark Treasury yields were at 3.5820%, having jumped 9 basis points on Friday. Data, on that day, showed U.S. monthly producer prices rose 0.3% in November, higher than expected, with October figures revised upwards, suggesting interest rates would remain higher for longer. In India, November CPI data is due after market hours, which likely cooled to a nine-month low of 6.40%, a Reuters poll showed.
MUMBAI, Dec 8 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was expected to open slightly stronger against the U.S. currency on Thursday, amid weaker oil prices and as the dollar dropped overnight on growth concerns in the world's top economy. The partially convertible rupee was seen around 82.30-82.35 per dollar in the opening trades, compared to its previous close of 82.47. Monitoring debt and equity inflows will be key, but the rupee could head towards 82.50-levels, the trader added. Several executives at top U.S. banks this week have warned about this possibility. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India hiked the key repo rate by 35 basis points (bps) to 6.25% on Wednesday but sounded more hawkish than market expectations about fighting inflation.
India cenbank hikes key policy rate by 35 basis points
  + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
However, the pace of rate hikes is reducing from 50 bps to 35 bps, in line with expected global hikes." The market needs to keep a close watch on global rate hikes and sticky core inflation." "We expect RBI to go for another 25 bps hike in its next policy, with the terminal rate at 6.5%. ANUJ PURI, CHAIRMAN, ANAROCK GROUP, MUMBAI"The 35 bps rate hike by the RBI - the fifth consecutive rate hike this year - comes as no surprise. We see a possibility of another 25 bps rate hike before a prolonged pause."
MUMBAI, Dec 6 (Reuters) - Foreign investors are buying into Indian financial firms, lured by the prospects of a fresh credit cycle that may boost the stocks of the country's largest lenders. The optimism is reflected in inflows, with foreign investors buying a net of $1.74 billion worth of Indian financial stocks in November, data released by the National Securities Depository Ltd this week showed. Reuters Graphics"PALATABLE" VALUATIONIndian financial stocks are trading at a premium to their historical average, but that is not necessarily the comparison investors are looking at. This has prompted local and foreign investors to pour money into the domestic equity markets, which hit all-time highs last week. The optimism comes despite financial stocks trading at a premium to their two-year historical average on a price-to-book valuation basis.
The rupee ended unchanged at 81.6850 per U.S. dollar last week. "Markets are sensing a softening of approach from the U.S. Federal Reserve and that's giving legs to risk assets. The benchmark 10-year bond yield finished flat at 7.3012% last week. It is expected to stay within a 7.25%-7.33% band this week, with a break below 7.25% considered highly unlikely, the trader said. Many Asian countries are scheduled to release manufacturing data, with China's factory activity data due Wednesday.
MUMBAI, Nov 21 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee declined against a steady U.S. dollar on Monday, tracking the Chinese yuan's plunge on stringent COVID curbs in the country. The rupee eased to 81.8850 per dollar by 0441 GMT, as against its previous close of 81.6850. The onshore yuan slipped 0.6%, prompting a 0.2% to 1% decline in Asian currencies, while the rupee held up relatively better than its peers. Regional stocks were also lower as Chinese equities (.SSEC) and Hong Kong shares (.HSI) dropped 0.8% and 2%, respectively. The dollar and U.S. yields have stabilised over the past week as Fed officials made hawkish remarks.
India's forex reserves rise at fastest pace since August 2021
  + stars: | 2022-11-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
MUMBAI, Nov 18 (Reuters) - India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) rose to $544.72 billion in the week through Nov. 11, marking their biggest weekly jump in more than a year, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) weekly statistical supplement showed on Friday. The country's reserves were at $529.99 billion by Nov. 4. In the week ended Nov. 11, softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data helped the rupee mark its best weekly performance in about four years and strengthened it to the 80-per-dollar handle for the first time since mid-September. For the current week, the local currency gave back some of those gains to end down 1.1% at 81.6850 per dollar. Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Mumbai; Editing by Anil D'SilvaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
The rupee is tipped to open at around 80.65-80.70 per dollar, up from the previous session's close of 80.7950. The local currency jumped 2% last week in its best gain in almost four years. The rupee has already corrected more than 3% from record lows and "then you have to consider oil prices", the trader said. Asian currencies began the week on a positive note, keeping up the momentum fuelled by softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data. The data has prompted traders to calibrate again the pace of Fed rate hikes.
MUMBAI, Nov 3 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is tipped to decline against the dollar on Thursday, after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that interest rate hikes might have to rise more than what was previously expected. The rupee is expected to open at around 82.85-82.90 to the dollar, compared with 82.7800 in the previous session. "Based on the reaction of U.S. bond and equity markets to Powell's remarks, rupee, like the rest of Asia, will struggle at open," a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. It was "very premature" to discuss when the Fed might pause its increases, Powell added. ING Bank pointed out that Powell highlighted an important distinction between the pace of rate hikes and what will be the ultimate, or terminal, rate level.
The rupee eased to 82.85 per dollar, against its previous close of 82.78. The currency had consolidated around 82.70 all of this week ahead of the U.S. central bank meeting. The Fed raised its benchmark funds rate by 75 basis points (bps) to 3.75%-4% as widely expected overnight. "This gives some breather to India as the country's central bank may not have to hike as aggressively." The Reserve Bank of India meets later in the day for a special meeting, most likely to discuss its first ever inflation target miss.
MUMBAI, Nov 2 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open little changed to the dollar on Wednesday as traders look for the U.S. Federal Reserve's views on the path forward for rates. The rupee is tipped at around almost the same levels in early trading as the previous session's close of 82.6950. "If the Fed's thinking is it may be early to give that signal, expect a gap down on rupee tomorrow." Fed futures now point to an almost even chance of whether the U.S. central bank's next move will be a 50 bps or 75 bps hike. "Yet we expect the Fed to remain data dependent and emphasize cumulative policy rate tightening over any step down in pace."
Indian rupee marks biggest monthly losing streak since 1985
  + stars: | 2022-10-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
MUMBAI, Oct 31 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee has declined in each of the ten months this year to notch its biggest losing streak in almost four decades as the U.S. Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on monetary policy catapulted the dollar to two-decade highs. The dollar index is up 16% this year, having scaled 114.8-levels last month to trade near its 2002 peak. The Indian rupee fell 1.8% against the dollar in October, taking its slide for the year to nearly 11%. It could come under pressure in case Fed indicates aggressive tightening path in the future," HDFC Bank economists wrote in a note. Reporting by Anushka Trivedi in Mumbai; Editing by Savio D'SouzaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
MUMBAI, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open slightly lower versus the dollar on Tuesday after the offshore Chinese yuan tumbled to a lifetime low. The rupee is tipped to open at around 82.74-82.76 per U.S. dollar, compared with 82.6750 on Friday. Meanwhile, the dollar index dipped in Asia trading, adding to is recent losses on bets that the U.S. Federal Reserve will deliver a small rate hike in December. If it were not for yuan, the rupee would have had "had a decent opening" considering the "slightly less" hawkish Fed outlook, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. Another fall in India's foreign exchange "is probably another problem" for the rupee, the trader said.
read moreThe partially convertible rupee was trading at 83.16/17 per dollar by 0436 GMT, compared to its close of 83.02 on Wednesday. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register"We can expect the dollar to continue strengthening as long as the Fed maintains its super hawkish stance. read moreTraders said the falling interest rate differential between India and the U.S. could continue to pressure the rupee. Shilan Shah, India economist at Capital Economics, said in a recent note that 50 bps rate hikes may be off-the-table at the RBI's meeting in early December. "We think other MPC members will have seen enough evidence of growth coming off the boil and price pressures peaking.
India's banking system liquidity was already at a deficit of 100 billion Indian rupees ($1.21 billion) by this week, with more tax payment related outflows likely. The RBI would need to decide how to maintain money market rates close to policy rates, BofA strategists said. Buying bonds in the open market "would help achieve more than one objective" by injecting liquidity and averting a larger sell-off in bond markets, they added. Like most central banks globally, the RBI had conducted open market operations during the COVID-19 pandemic and stopped in October last year. "The decision on appropriate liquidity surplus or deficit in the system would depend on a few factors, including the monetary policy stance, need to support further credit growth, banking system liquidity skew and currency stability," they said.
MUMBAI, Oct 18 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee strengthened on Tuesday to hover close to the 82 per dollar mark, as risk sentiment improved after reversal of Britain's controversial fiscal plans pressured the greenback. The rupee jumped 0.35% to 82.05 by 0442 GMT, after having traded in a narrow band near the 82.40 level for the past five sessions. The currency has not traded under 82 per dollar in nearly two-weeks and traders see low chances of it breaching that in this session. Any level below 82 per dollar was good for importers with near-term exposures to buy as USD/INR premiums are currently lower too, he added. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Anushka Trivedi in Mumbai; Editing by Neha AroraOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
MUMBAI, Sept 29 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open higher against the U.S. currency, after the Bank of England's decision to buy long-dated British bonds prompted a pullback in Treasury yields and the dollar index. The rupee is seen at around 81.60-81.65 per dollar in early trades, up from a record closing low of 81.94 on Wednesday. The dollar index tumbled on Wednesday, Treasury yields fell sharply and U.S. equities recovered after the BoE took measures to stop the rout in the U.K. bond market. The dollar index fell the most in more than two years on Wednesday, as risk aversion eased. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to near 3.70%.
A Reserve Bank of India (RBI) logo is seen at the gate of its office in New Delhi, India, November 9, 2018. REUTERS/Altaf Hussain/MUMBAI, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India may need to find ways to replenish its foreign exchange reserves such as encouraging non-resident Indians to deposit more funds, as it looks to stabilise a depreciating rupee, HDFC Bank Chief Economist Abheek Barua said. read more"The central bank should intervene to ensure that a falling currency does not eclipse India's fundamentals," Barua wrote in a note this week. According to Barua, the central bank may need to think of ways to bulk up its forex reserves, should the pool shrink to near $500 billion in the coming months. "More capital is needed at this stage to stabilise the rupee and enable the RBI to replenish its reserves chest," he said.
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