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☆ Morning bid: When meeting expectations isn't enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

That sent the S&P down but the Nasdaq index ended up, while two-year Treasury yields rose to 3.799, the highest since January. It looks like markets are still unable to make up their minds on the data's long-term impact. Officials said the U.S. central bank would need to keep gradually raising interest rates to beat inflation. After the inflation data, traders of interest rate futures now see the Fed raising borrowing costs three more times, bringing the policy rate to the 5.25%-5.50% range by July, if not June. Meanwhile, investors turned more optimistic about the global economy in February, flocking to emerging market stocks and cutting their cash holdings to levels last seen before the war in Ukraine, a BofA survey of global investors showed on Tuesday.

☆ Morning Bid: Don't break my heart
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Sure, there are a few pundits warning about inflation, but the market is clearly screaming at the top of its lungs that inflation worries are misplaced." Economists polled by Reuters expect Tuesday's CPI reading to show headline prices and the core CPI gaining 0.5% and 0.4% month-over-month for January, respectively. Asian shares edged up on Tuesday, while the yen recouped losses as Japan nominated a new central bank governor. This would mark their first face-to-face talks after the United States shot down what it said was a Chinese spy balloon and other flying objects. Meanwhile, Qatari investors are preparing to make a bid to buy Premier League club Manchester United in the coming days, Bloomberg reported.

SINGAPORE, Feb 13 (Reuters) - DBS Group (DBSM.SI) has a tightly managed exposure to India's Adani group of companies, the chief executive of Southeast Asia's largest bank said on Monday. DBS was among a group of banks which provided finance to Adani's $10.5 billion acquisition of Holcim's (HOLN.S) cement business in India last year. "They're solid, cash-generating companies, so we're not concerned about the exposure," Chief Executive Piyush Gupta told reporters after DBS reported quarterly results. The cement industry has huge potential, given the growth in the market, Gupta said, "and so that exposure is quite tightly managed." New York-based short-seller Hindenburg Research accused the Adani Group in a Jan. 24 report of stock manipulation and improper use of offshore tax havens that it said obscured the extent of Adani family stock ownership in group firms.

☆ Singapore's DBS profit jumps two-thirds, CEO sees rate rises moderating
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-12 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

DBS Chief Executive Piyush Gupta said in the bank's results statement that interest rate increases are likely to moderate, but he doesn't expect rate cuts this year. We expect confidence to return to markets in the coming year as interest rate increases ease and China reopens," Gupta said. DBS reported a total net interest margin, a key gauge of profitability, of 2.05% for the latest quarter, up from 1.43% in the same period a year earlier. DBS' annual profit soared 20% to a record S$8.2 billion. Smaller peers OCBC (OCBC.SI) and UOB (OCBC.SI), which report results next week, are also expected to post a sharp rise in annual profits, but quarter-on-quarter earnings are seen as being flat to slightly lower.

☆ Singapore bank DBS Q4 profit soars 68%, flags robust outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 13 (Reuters) - DBS Group (DBSM.SI) reported a higher-than-expected 68% rise in quarterly profit as rising interest rates boosted its net interest margins and Southeast Asia's largest bank by assets retained its full-year outlook for mid-single-digit loan growth. DBS, which earns most of its profit from Singapore and Hong Kong, announced a special dividend of 50 Singapore cents per share, citing its strong earnings and capital position. Singapore lenders were set to report their highest quarterly net interest margins in more than a decade on rising interest rates but as the cycle peaks and economic growth falters, profit growth will be curbed, analysts said. It reported a total net interest margin of 2.05% for the latest quarter, up from 1.43% in the same period a year earlier. ($1 = 1.3297 Singapore dollars)Reporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Kim Coghill, Stephen Coates and Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ First Abu Dhabi Bank says not currently evaluating offer for StanChart
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 10 (Reuters) - First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB.AD) (FAB), the United Arab Emirates' biggest lender, said on Friday it was not currently evaluating an offer for Britain's Standard Chartered (STAN.L). News of the potential offer first came on Jan. 5, when FAB said it had considered a bid for London-listed Standard Chartered but was no longer doing so. StanChart's shares rose by 11% on Thursday after Bloomberg News reported that the Abu Dhabi lender is considering reviving the bid once a lock-up period that prevents it immediately doing so expires, offering $30 billion to $35 billon. "First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC notes the recent press speculation in relation to Standard Chartered and re-iterates that it is not evaluating a possible offer for Standard Chartered," the lender said in Friday's statement. It, however, added that it and related parties reserve "the right to announce an offer or possible offer for the company or make or participate in an offer or possible offer for the company," within six months of the date of this announcement.

☆ Morning Bid: Hot air
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Still, stocks rallied and bond yields fell as markets priced in lower rates. Now, it appears that some of these expectations were a load of hot air. The U.S. jobs data showed the unemployment rate hit more than a 53-1/2-year low of 3.4%. U.S. stock futures traded lower and FTSE futures indicated a weaker start for British stocks (.FTSE), which vaulted to a record high on Friday. European index futures also traded lower.

It is rare for investors to take short positions in securities of Indian companies. Securities rules in India also make it hard to quietly build short positions. Institutional investors are obliged to disclose their short positions upfront and there are other restrictions and registration requirements on foreign investors. In Adani, for example, Hindenburg held the short positions through U.S.-traded bonds and non-Indian-traded derivatives. China's strict investment rules make it all but impossible to take short positions in domestic-listed Chinese stocks from overseas.

☆ Citigroup wealth unit stops margin loans against India Adani's securities - source
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 2 (Reuters) - Citigroup's (C.N) wealth unit has stopped extending margin loans to its clients against securities of India's embattled Adani group, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said, as the conglomerate reels from a short-seller attack. The group's flagship firm Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) called off its $2.5 billion share sale in a dramatic reversal on Wednesday as a rout sparked by the U.S. short-seller's criticisms wiped billions more off the value of the Indian tycoon's stocks. Citi's wealth unit decided to cut the loan-to-value ratio for credit against Adani securities to zero on Thursday, said the source, who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter. Citi declined to comment. Reporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Sumeet Chatterjee and Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

[1/2] Indian billionaire Gautam Adani speaks during an inauguration ceremony after the Adani Group completed the purchase of Haifa Port earlier in January 2023, in Haifa port, Israel January 31, 2023. On Wednesday, a $2.5 billion sale of shares by one of its companies Adani Enterprises ADEL.NS was called off. Adani Group and the stock market regulator the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) did not respond to a request for comment. Cracking the code of how Hindenburg did the trade could lead to more short sellers taking positions against Indian companies, which have been rare, analysts said. But several bankers familiar with trading in Indian securities said the more profitable piece of the short seller’s bet would likely lie in the derivative trades it had placed.

The port-to-property group, led by Gautam Adani, one of the world's richest people, has denied the allegations and called them baseless, adding it has always made the necessary regulatory disclosures. "But from an offshore investor's perspective the allegations (made by Hindenburg) ... do not seem to be clearly addressed," he said. The U.S. short-seller has said Adani's "response largely confirmed our findings and ignored our key questions." Australia's corporate regulator said on Wednesday it would review the Hindenburg report as concerns raised also relate to Adani's Australian operations. Adani Enterprises lost nearly 6% on Wednesday to bring its losses since the Hindenburg report to more than $8 billion.

☆ Morning Bid: Lights, camera, action
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are pricing in a quarter-of-a-percentage-point increase in the Fed's benchmark interest rate, which would mark the smallest hike since U.S. central bankers kicked off their tightening cycle 10 months ago with one the same size. But the forecasts still risk lagging behind policymakers' guidance on how high rates will go. The Bank of England is also expected to raise its interest rates by half a percentage point to 4% on Thursday. For today, European markets will focus on euro zone January flash PMI data, while results are due from Vodafone (VOD.L), GSK (GSK.L) and Novartis (NOVN.S). Germany and Italy figured among the biggest euro zone countries that recorded negative growth rates for the quarter but France and Spain expanded.

☆ Markets 'overpricing' Indian banks' risk from Adani exposure - Societe Generale
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SINGAPORE, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Markets are "overpricing" the risk to Indian lenders from their exposure to Adani Group, which was targeted last week in a report by short-seller Hindenburg Research, Societe Generale said, adding that a sell-off in banking shares seems overdone. The allegations in the report, which the ports-to-energy conglomerate has denied, triggered a $65 billion rout in the Indian billionaire's stocks. "We think the market is overpricing the related risks, as we calculate the sector's direct exposure to the Adani group at just 0.6%," they added. Assuming no significant change in the debt structure over the past year, SocGen estimated that Indian banks' loan exposure to Adani was close to $10 billion, just 0.6% of total banking sector loans at nearly $1.5 trillion. It said Indian banks were among the "best positioned" to gain from a rebound in capital expenditure and said it expected more "favourable" valuations post the correction.

India's largest ever secondary share sale attracted participation from anchor investors including Maybank Securities and Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, as well as India's HDFC Life Insurance and state-backed Life Insurance Corporation (LIFI.NS). By Tuesday the overall share sale was fully subscribed as foreign institutional investors and corporate funds flooded in, although participation by retail investors and Adani Enterprises (ADEL.NS) employees remained low. Support for Adani's share sale came even as the flagship's shares closed at 2,973.9 rupees, up nearly 3% but below the lower end of the sale price band of 3,112 rupees. So, what happens to one particular corporate group, is a matter between the market and the corporate group." Reuters GraphicsHindenburg said in its report it had shorted U.S.-bonds and non-India traded derivatives of the Adani Group.

☆ Morning Bid: Mind the gap
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The IMF cited "surprisingly resilient" demand in the United States and Europe, easing of energy costs and the reopening of China's economy. Still, it would be wise for investors to be mindful of a gap between expectations and reality. Flash GDP numbers are due from the euro zone, along with growth data for France and Italy. The Bank of England is set to raise rates by 50 bps to 4.0%, respectively. Money market bets show that the U.S. Federal Reserve is set to raise its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%-4.75% on Wednesday.

☆ Instant View: Adani's $2.5 billion offer rides out share storm with investor backing
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

COMMENTARYAMBAREESH BALIGA, INDEPENDENT MARKET ANALYST, MUMBAI"The FPO did get subscribed, thanks to a few institutional as well as large family offices. DEEPAK JASANI, HEAD OF RETAIL RESEARCH, HDFC SECURITIES, MUMBAI"For Indian markets, one of the concern areas is out of the way for the time being as this was weighing on investor sentiment. Since the current market price is below the offer price, the retail subscription was low as investors can rather buy it from the market." That was their focus area considering the fact that there was a difference between the market price and the floor price of the FPO. It seems that retail investors did not consider the fact that there is more to rates than just the price."

[1/5] Indian billionaire Gautam Adani speaks during an inauguration ceremony after the Adani Group completed the purchase of Haifa Port earlier in January 2023, in Haifa port, Israel January 31, 2023. REUTERS/Amir CohenSummarySummary Companies Adani scripts comeback by completing share saleKey $2.5 billion share sale fully subscribed-dataShort-seller's report led to fall in Adani sharesMUMBAI, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Gautam Adani's crucial $2.5 billion share sale was fully subscribed on Tuesday as investors pumped funds into his flagship firm, despite a $65 billion rout in the Indian billionaire's stocks sparked by a short-seller's report. Support for Adani's share sale came even as the flagship's shares closed at 2,973.9 rupees, up nearly 3% but below the lower end of the sale price band of 3,112 rupees. So, what happens to one particular corporate group, is a matter between the market and the corporate group." Hindenburg said in its report it had shorted U.S.-bonds and non-India traded derivatives of the Adani Group.

Adani Transmission (ADAI.NS), Adani Total Gas (ADAG.NS), Adani Green Energy (ADNA.NS), Adani Power (ADAN.NS) and Adani Wilmar (ADAW.NS) fell between 5% and 20% on Monday. It stayed well below the offer price of the issue, which if successful will be largest such share offering ever in India. Adani Enterprises' $2.5 billion secondary share sale closed its second day amid weak investor sentiment. The stock closed at 2,892.85 rupees, 7% below the 3,112 rupees lower end of the offer price band. "While there is a risk that the share sale does not go through, it will be crucial today to wait and see how institutional investors participate."

☆ Asian stocks make 7-month highs, Australian dollar gains on hot inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Asian equities scaled their highest levels in seven months on Wednesday after some regional markets reopened after holidays, and the Australian dollar hit multi-month highs as surging inflation made higher interest rates more likely. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.2% to a seven-month high but traded below the day's peak. Globally, stocks have posted strong gains this year after a torrid 2022, based on expectations that inflation is close to peaking and the rise in U.S. interest rates will taper off. Stronger-than-expected economic data in Europe eased market worries of a sharp recession there, but interest rates are still seen creeping higher despite declining energy prices reducing inflationary pressure. The New Zealand dollar slid after New Zealand reported annual inflation of 7.2% in the fourth quarter, below a central bank forecast of 7.5%.

☆ Morning bid: Running out of breath
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Asian equities held steady on Wednesday near seven-month highs after a mixed session on Wall Street. On a thin day for economic data, focus will be on U.K. producer prices and the German IFO. Revenue at Europe's largest companies is expected to have risen by just 0.9% in the fourth quarter, Refinitiv I/B/E/S data showed on Tuesday. The forecast, which tracks companies listed on the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) benchmark index, represents a drop from last week when analysts expected revenue growth of 4%. Analysts downgrade earnings forecastsInvestment strategists at Standard Chartered say it is time to fade the rally seen in European stocks and the euro since the lows of September.

☆ Asian stocks rise to 7-month highs, hot inflation boosts Australian dollar
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Anshuman Daga | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Asian equities extended their winning run to scale their highest levels in seven months on Wednesday, with South Korean stocks leading the way, and the Australian dollar hit multi-month highs as surging inflation made higher interest rates more likely. Globally, stocks have posted strong gains this year after a torrid 2022, based on expectations that inflation is close to peaking and the rise in U.S. interest rates will taper off. Stronger-than-expected economic data in Europe has eased market worries of a sharp recession in the euro zone as energy prices decline, though interest rates are still seen creeping up. Analysts had thought there was some chance the RBA might even pause its tightening campaign, but the pace of inflation put paid to that. Gold prices held steady at $1,938 per ounce, hovering near a nine-month peak touched in the previous session.

☆ Morning Bid: Ugly duckling
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaWhile Chinese economic data didn't come in worse than markets had feared, investors still couldn't come to terms with the scale of the economic pain being felt in the world's second-largest economy. Asian stock markets dipped and the broad-based MSCI's Asia Pacific share index outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) retreated away from seven-month highs, and Chinese equities stocks also retreated. European and UK stock futures, however, pointed to a steady start. The FTSE 100 (.FTSE) is just a whisker away from its record high of 7,903.5 points. Tuesday's batch of economic data coming up include UK jobs numbers, German inflation and Germany's ZEW economic sentiment survey.

☆ Morning Bid: Let it go
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaThe land of rising yields is the No. 1 focus of investors on Monday, as Japan's central bank may again let its bond-market peg go higher. Global inflation data due this week could underscore investors' expectations that the worst of the global price squeeze is over. A final read of euro zone inflation for December, as well as readings from Britain, Canada and Japan are due. Core inflation in all four regions is mostly rising and above target but the worst may have passed.

☆ No fears on Friday the 13th
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Anshuman DagaIs there anything spooky about Friday the 13th? Well, certainly not for global equity investors as they cheered U.S. inflation data that showed the Fed's aggressive rate increases are having the desired effect. European equities, perched at nine-month highs, are poised to open on a strong footing on Friday. Fed policymakers expressed relief that inflation continued easing in December and signalled that a rate-hike slowdown was coming. Four American banking giants are forecast to report lower quarterly profits as lenders stockpile rainy-day funds to prepare for an economic slowdown that is battering investment banking.

☆ Morning Bid: Risk on, risk off
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

European company results kick-off in earnest on Wednesday, with retailer Sainsbury (SBRY.L) and JD Sports reporting. On the macro economic front, the World Bank cut its 2023 growth forecasts to levels teetering on the brink of recession for many countries as the impact of central bank rate hikes intensifies, Russia's war in Ukraine continues and the world's major economic engines sputter. The U.S. consumer price index report on Thursday is the big event for markets. The report is expected to show December's headline inflation at 6.5% versus 7.1% in November. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday:RESULTS: Sainsbury, JD Sports, Barratt DevelopmentsReporting by Anshuman Daga; Editing by Jacqueline WongOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

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