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Ahead of Sunday's elections, a cost of living crisis is now hitting Erdogan's support in the southeast as elsewhere, threatening his prospects in a tough battle to maintain power. A survey published this week by pollster Rawest showed 76.3% support for opposition presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu in Diyarbakir province, with backing for Erdogan at just 20.5%. The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), deemed a terrorist group by Turkey and its Western allies, took up arms against the state in 1984. Those talks collapsed in 2015, unleashing a period of ferocious urban warfare in the southeast, including in the streets near Aydin's shop. CHANGE IN ERDOGANThe HDP, parliament's third largest party, has itself declared its support for Kilicdaroglu.

☆ What's at stake in Turkey's landmark elections?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Modern Turkey's longest-serving leader, Erdogan has championed religious piety and low interest rates at home while asserting Turkish influence in the region and loosening the NATO member's ties with the West. The election takes place three months after earthquakes in southeast Turkey killed more than 50,000 people. WHAT'S AT STAKE FOR TURKEY ... The opposition has echoed Erdogan's plans to return some refugees to Syria, but neither has set out how that could safely take place. How the opposition will garner support among the Kurdish voters, accounting for 15% of the electorate, remains key.

☆ Explainer: What's at stake in Turkey's landmark elections?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The election takes place three months after earthquakes in southeast Turkey killed more than 50,000 people. WHAT'S AT STAKE FOR TURKEY ... They would also dismantle his executive presidency in favour of the previous parliamentary system, and send back Syrian refugees. The opposition has echoed Erdogan's plans to return some refugees to Syria, but neither has set out how that could safely take place. How the opposition will garner support among the Kurdish voters, accounting for 15% of the electorate, remains key.

☆ Erdogan's milestones before Turkey's election
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +8 min

August 2001: He establishes the Justice and Development Party, or AK Party (AKP), and is elected chairman. In his early days, Erdogan tours Europe and the United States to promote his policies and advance Turkey's bid to join the European Union. May 2013: Protests against Erdogan's plans to redevelop Istanbul's Gezi Park accelerate into unprecedented nationwide demonstrations over what critics see as his authoritarianism. March 2019: Nationwide municipal elections produce Erdogan's first electoral defeat in nearly two decades. The lira hits all-time lows, inflation soars to its highest levels during Erdogan's rule, and his approval ratings sink.

☆ Turkish budget deficit widens in March after quakes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The primary balance, which excludes interest payments, logged a deficit of 2.15 billion lira in March, it said, bringing the total in the first three months to 149.37 billion lira. The budget deficit widened sharply after the earthquakes struck southern Turkey in February at a time when President Tayyip Erdogan was already facing major economic challenges. In February, the central government's budget deficit stood at 170.56 billion lira and the cumulative figure for the first two months of the year was 202.8 billion lira. Economists reckon government spending on rebuilding and aid efforts could lift the ratio of budget deficit to GDP to above 5% this year, up from Ankara's forecast last September of 3.5%. It had made a transfer of 5.6 billion lira to the areas a month earlier.

☆ Egyptian minister to visit Turkey as ties improve - Ankara
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

ANKARA, April 10 (Reuters) - Egypt's Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry is likely to visit Turkey again this week, the government in Ankara said on Monday, adding that progress could be made towards reinstatement of envoys after relations ended a decade ago. Cavusoglu visited Cairo last month, a decade after diplomatic links were cut by the overthrow of Egypt's then president and Ankara's ally Mohamed Mursi. Shoukry also visited Turkey two weeks ago to show solidarity after the massive earthquakes that killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria. Consultations between senior foreign ministry officials in Ankara and Cairo began in 2021 as Turkey sought better ties with Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Israel and Saudi Arabia. But normalisation between Ankara and Cairo accelerated after Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi and his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan shook hands in Doha at the World Cup.

☆ Russia's war on Ukraine latest: Russia likely behind document leak, U.S. says
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, April 8 (Reuters) - Russia or pro-Russian elements are likely behind a leak of classified U.S. military documents that offer a partial snapshot of the war in Ukraine, three U.S. officials told Reuters, while the Justice Department said it was probing the leak. Reuters could not immediately verify the reports and it was unclear how Ukraine could have attempted such a strike. The Ukrainian military said it was holding on in the city but the situation was difficult. Ukrainian service member from 28th mechanised brigade launches an RPG at the frontline, amid Russia’s attack on Ukraine in the region of Bakhmut, Ukraine, April 5, 2023. REUTERS/Kai PfaffenbachDIPLOMACY, POLITICS* Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich was formally charged with espionage in Russia, Russian news agencies said on Friday.

☆ Factbox: In Middle East, once improbable ententes set new tone
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Some U.S. allies had concluded their interests are not best served by a highly polarised Middle East, he added. The agreement between leading Sunni Arab power Saudi Arabia and the Shi'ite Islamist government in Tehran could defuse tensions and conflicts such as the Yemen war. Saudi Arabia has turned to China at a time of strain in its historic alliance with the United States. Saudi Arabia took the lead in rebuilding ties in 2021, declaring an end to the boycott of Qatar. Sources say Syria and Saudi Arabia have agreed to reopen embassies.

☆ Explainer: After Finland joins NATO, why is Turkey making Sweden wait?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BACKGROUNDRussia's invasion of Ukraine in February last year convinced Sweden and Finland to ditch long-held policies of military non-alignment. WHY DOES TURKEY OBJECT TO SWEDISH NATO MEMBERSHIP? Unlike Turkey, Hungary does not have a list of demands, but says grievances need to be addressed before it can ratify Sweden's accession to NATO. WHEN WILL TURKEY AGREE TO SWEDISH NATO MEMBERSHIP? NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has said it would be inconceivable that the alliance would not support Sweden if it were threatened.

☆ Turkey formally approves Finland's NATO membership, in setback for Russia
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Adem Altan | Afp | Getty ImagesTurkey's parliament voted unanimously to formally approve Finland's membership to NATO on Thursday, marking a historic step for the traditionally nonaligned Nordic country that shares an 830-mile border with Russia. Turkey and Hungary remained the final holdouts standing in the way of the Nordic states' accession to the 74-year old alliance. Turkey joined NATO in 1952, and has the second-largest military in the alliance after the United States. Finland lifted its nearly three-year-long arms embargo on Turkey in January as part of its effort to improve the two countries' relations. Nonetheless, he expressed confidence that Turkey would approve his country's NATO bid.

☆ Hungarian government official argues Sweden isn't nice enough to his country to get approval to join NATO
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Jake Epstein | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Hungary is one of two countries yet to approve Sweden's bid to join NATO. Sweden — alongside neighboring Finland — requested to join NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine over a year ago, but it still needs Hungary's approval to do so. "With Finland's admission into NATO now secure, Sweden must face the music regarding its daunting attitude and former derogatory comments toward Hungary," Kovács wrote. Photo by JONATHAN NACKSTRAND/AFP via Getty ImagesKovács wrote that another reason for the hold up on Sweden's NATO bid is Stockholm's "crumbling throne of moral superiority" and a "lack of care and respect." Sweden and Finland — both of which have historically been militarily nonaligned — applied to join NATO in May 2022 and were invited to join the military alliance the following month.

☆ Hungary says 'grievances' hold up ratification of Sweden's NATO accession
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BUDAPEST, March 29 (Reuters) - Hungary is holding up Sweden's admission to NATO because of grievances over criticism by Stockholm of Prime Minister Viktor Orban's policies, the Hungarian government spokesman said on Wednesday. Bridging the gap will require effort on both sides, spokesman Zoltan Kovacs said. Sweden and its neighbour Finland asked to join the NATO military alliance last year following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said last week that Turkey's parliament would also start ratifying Finland's accession. But it held off approving Sweden's bid, accusing it of harbouring Kurdish militants.

☆ In vote setback for Erdogan, Turkey's HDP will not field candidate
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ANKARA, March 22 (Reuters) - Turkey's pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) and its allies will not field a presidential candidate in May, its co-leader said on Wednesday, raising the prospect of the opposition uniting against President Tayyip Erdogan's re-election bid. Speaking at a news conference, Pervin Buldan did not openly say whether her alliance would support opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, after they had met on Monday. "For these reasons, we are sharing with the public that we will not field a candidate in presidential elections." Erdogan is facing the biggest challenge to his rule in his more than two decades of leading Turkey. Recent polls show him trailing Kilicdaroglu, the candidate of the opposition alliance of six parties.

The HDP, parliament's third-biggest party, wants the opposition to back demands for Kurdish rights and other issues. The Kurdish party held talks with Kilicdaroglu on Monday and is expected to announce this week whether it will back him. HDP lawmaker Imam Tascier said Kilicdaroglu had acknowledged the "Kurdish problem", terms reminiscent of language used by Erdogan in earlier years when he was seeking Kurdish support. Now, he said, Erdogan "pushed freedoms, democracy, human rights and the Kurdish problem away with the back of his hand". Yet, legal challenges could derail the role of HDP, which also won almost 12% of the national vote in 2018.

☆ EU's EIB to break 4-year Turkey lending ban with earthquake aid
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, March 20 (Reuters) - The European Union's lending arm, the European Investment Bank, is to provide 500 million euros ($540 mln) for Turkey's post-earthquake rebuilding efforts, suspending an almost-total ban on financing for Turkey. The EIB stopped virtually all lending in Turkey after a row over oil and gas drilling off Cyprus nearly four years ago. But the severity of last month's quake, which killed nearly 56,000 people in Turkey and neighbouring Syria, has prompted it to make an exception. Turkey is set to hold pivotal presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14 and EU members are wary of a resumption of EIB lending being seen as an indirect backing of incumbent president Tayyip Erdogan's re-election campaign. The EIB lent around 2 billion euros a year in Turkey between 2009 and 2016 before the concerns about Ankara's domestic crackdown first saw the bank scale back its lending in the country.

At a joint news conference with his Turkish counterpart, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry said talks with Turkey on the possibility of restoring ties to ambassadorial level would happen at "the appropriate time". Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Turkey would upgrade its diplomatic relations with Egypt to ambassador level "as soon as possible". "There is a political will and directives from the presidents of both countries when they met in Doha ... to launch the path towards a full normalisation of relations," Shoukry said. Consultations between senior foreign ministry officials in Ankara and Cairo began in 2021, amid a push by Turkey to ease tensions with Egypt, the UAE, Israel and Saudi Arabia. As part of that tentative reconciliation, Ankara asked Egyptian opposition TV channels operating in Turkey to moderate their criticism of Egypt.

☆ Erdogan's AKP party signals return to more orthodox economic policies in draft election manifesto -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Orhan Coskun | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

ANKARA, March 16 (Reuters) - The draft election manifesto of Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan's AK Party marks a return to more orthodox, free market economic policies, four sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. According to the sources familiar with the draft, the AK's manifesto for the upcoming election will make no reference to Ankara's more recent economic policies but instead to return to his party's prior, more orthodox approach. "The approach to the economy is very similar to that of the 2002 AK Party election manifesto. He said Erdogan's final approval of the manifesto would be required and so far he had not conveyed any dissenting opinion. If he takes office, a radical change is inevitable in economic policies, the bureaucracy and cabinet members to work in harmony with him," the AKP official said.

☆ Erdogan's party pivots back to orthodox economic policies in draft manifesto -sources
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Orhan Coskun | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ Sweden, Finland and Turkey hold NATO talks, agree to more meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

STOCKHOLM/ISTANBUL, March 9 (Reuters) - Turkey has acknowledged that Sweden and Finland have taken concrete steps to meet Ankara's concerns over their bids to join NATO and the three will hold further meetings, Sweden's chief negotiator in the accession process said on Thursday. Sweden and Finland applied last year to join NATO, but faced unexpected objections from Turkey which says the two countries harbour members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), considered a terrorist group by Ankara and its Western allies. "We see that Turkey recognized that both Sweden and Finland have taken concrete steps in this agreement, which is a good sign," chief negotiator Oscar Stenstrom told a news conference at NATO headquarters after trilateral talks resumed. President Tayyip Erdogan's spokesman, Ibrahim Kalin, said steps taken by Sweden and Finland to address Ankara's security concerns were positive, but not enough for Turkey's ratification of their NATO bid. In January, Turkey suspended talks set up as part of a trilateral deal agreed in Madrid last year aimed at smoothing Finland and Sweden's accession process.

☆ Explainer: What's at stake in Turkey's upcoming elections?
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The opposition promises to reverse many of the policies of Erdogan, who has championed religious piety, military-backed diplomacy and low interest rates. WHAT'S AT STAKE IN THIS ELECTION FOR TURKEY ... Erdogan has also centralised power around an executive presidency, based in a 1,000-room palace on the edge of Ankara, which sets policy on Turkey's economic, security, domestic and international affairs. Economists say Erdogan's calls for low interest rates sent inflation soaring to a 24-year high of 85% last year, and the lira slumping to one tenth of its value against the dollar over the last decade. How the opposition will garner support among the Kurdish voters, accounting for 15% of the electorate, remains key.

☆ Turkey's powerhouse drone industry is on the verge of another milestone: a stealthy unmanned fighter jet for its new aircraft carrier
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Benjamin Brimelow | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Turkey's Navy plans to make Kızılelma the primary aircraft on its first aircraft carrier. On January 23, the company announced that the Kızılelma, its newest and potentially most promising product, had successfully conducted its second flight test. The test is another step forward for what may become the company's crown jewel and the high point of Turkey's burgeoning drone industry. The KızılelmaThe Kizilelma drone during its first flight test, in Istanbul on December 14. The Kizilelma during its first flight test on December 14.

There had been conflicting signals over the likely timing of the presidential and parliamentary elections since last month's earthquake, with some suggesting they could be postponed until later in the year or could be held as scheduled on June 18. Erdogan has faced a wave of criticism over his government's handling of the deadliest quake in the nation's modern history. Now he also must contend with criticism over the response to the quake in a region that traditionally backed him. The quake also injured 108,000 people in Turkey. Some two million people were registered as having fled the region, which has been hit by more than 11,000 aftershocks, AFAD said.

A 7.8 magnitude earthquake on Feb. 6 killed more than 47,000 people, damaged or destroyed hundreds of thousands of buildings in Turkey and Syria and left millions homeless. In Turkey, 865,000 people are living in tents and 23,500 in containers, while 376,000 are in student dormitories and public guesthouses outside the earthquake zone, President Tayyip Erdogan said on Tuesday. Six people were killed in the latest earthquake to strike the border region of Turkey and Syria, authorities said on Tuesday. Turkey's internet authority blocked access to a popular online forum, Eksi Sozluk, on Tuesday, two weeks after it briefly blocked access to Twitter, citing the spread of disinformation. Information Technologies and Communications Authority (BTK) website shows the website was blocked late on Tuesday, without citing any explicit reason.

[1/2] U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu arrive at a meeting in Ankara, Turkey February 20, 2023. REUTERS/Cagla GurdoganANKARA, Feb 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday Washington strongly supports Sweden and Finland's quick NATO accession given steps they have already taken, even as his Turkish counterpart stressed the need for more concrete action. The Nordic countries' NATO bids have been stalled because Turkey has refused to ratify them, saying Stockholm in particular has harboured what it calls members of terrorist groups. "If they take steps that convince our parliament and people, there could be a development in this direction," he added. Sweden and Finland applied last year to join the trans-Atlantic defence pact after Russia invaded Ukraine, but faced unexpected objections from Turkey.

☆ Turkey not exporting items for use in Russia war effort - Foreign Minister
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

ANKARA, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Turkey is not exporting products that could be used in Russia's war effort, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said on Monday, after U.S. warnings this month about exports of chemicals, microchips and other items. "It is not true that we have exported to Russia products that can be used in the defence industry," Cavusoglu said. Speaking after meeting U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Ankara, Cavusoglu also said Turkey will not allow U.S. and European sanctions to be violated in or via Turkey, and Ankara is taking steps to prevent it. Western nations applied the export controls and sanctions after Moscow's invasion nearly a year ago. Yet supply channels have remained open from Hong Kong, Turkey and other trading hubs.

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