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LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters) - China raised export tariffs on unwrought primary aluminium and alloy at the start of this year after a rare burst of export activity in the first part of 2022. Russian aluminium dominated the import mix and Russian smelters were the main recipients of Chinese alumina exports last year. China's unwrought aluminium imports vs Russian metalRUSSIAN IMPORTS GROWDecember's imports of primary aluminium, by contrast, accelerated to 128,000 tonnes, the highest monthly tally in over a year. China's total alumina exports vs RussianCHINA LIFTS ALUMINA EXPORTSThe two countries' aluminium trade also extends to the intermediate alumina stage of the processing chain. It could also mean China returning to consistent net importer of unwrought aluminium, particularly if domestic smelter production continues to be plagued by power constraints.

China's net refined copper imports and year-on-year changeBOOMING IMPORTSThe strength of last year's imports was even more surprising given the financial problems at privately-owned Maike Group. But it has clearly had minimal impact on the overall flow of refined copper into China. But China's imports of Russian copper actually fell by 20% to 324,000 tonnes in 2022. China's net imports of refined copper were running below year-earlier levels through May but steadily accelerated over the second part of the year. Goldman suggests that a sign of restocking by China's copper sector would be net refined imports being consistently higher than 280,000 tonnes per month.

China's own production of refined tin was flat year-on-year at 165,900 tonnes in 2022, according to Shanghai Metal Market. ShFE tin price, market open interest and stocksSHIFT IN POSITIONINGWhile China has reshaped tin's fundamental picture, the price recovery has forced an equally significant shift in fund positioning. Investment funds turned net short on the LME tin contract in September as the price was imploding. Tin market open interest collapsed from 102,106 to 71,218 contracts in the week before the Lunar New Year holidays, indicating a big clean-out of short positions. GOLDILOCKS PRICEThe tin price is now in the Goldilocks zone, not high enough to frighten off physical users, and not low enough to threaten existing supply.

LONDON, Jan 23 (Reuters) - Global aluminium production rose by a marginal 2.0% last year, a rate of growth that was down from 2.7% in 2021 and the slowest since 2019, according to the International Aluminium Institute (IAI). Global aluminium production by region change versus 2021EUROPE POWERS DOWNWestern European aluminium output was running at an annualised 2.73 million tonnes in December, down by 540,000 tonnes on December 2021 and the lowest production rate this century. Latin America was the fastest-growing aluminium production region last year with output up 10.7% year on year. As ever more smelters switch to green energy sources, global aluminium production is ever more dependent on seasonally variable power availability. Such regional adjustments are now part and parcel of the global aluminium production landscape but they have injected a new degree of volatility into aluminium's previously slow-changing supply side.

Currently trading around $9,130, the copper price is up by 9.6% since the start of January. Investors played copper from the short side for much of last year, if they were prepared to engage at all. The funds' sudden return is a sign that many are betting on a much sunnier outlook. "To the degree these short positions have not already covered, this may support copper in the short term", the bank said. It's clear, though, that copper long positioning is primarily a bet on Chinese recovery, underpinned by measures to revitalise a foundering property sector and more metals-intensive green infrastructure.

It's the lowest end-year inventory in the system this century and reflects two years of steady withdrawals which have left exchange stocks of metals such as zinc and lead almost depleted. It's no coincidence that all the LME base metals have experienced bouts of extreme tightness over the last couple of years. Zinc stocks were down by 65% and lead stocks down by 59% on December 2021. LME stocks could desperately do with any sort of rebuild, whether seasonal or cyclical. So far, however, significant arrivals remain conspicuous by their absence and until that changes, low visible inventory is going to keep roiling the LME base metals.

The four each held a sizeable short position of between 13,000 and 24,000 lots, equivalent to 78,000 to 144,000 tonnes. LME warehouses held just 80,088 tonnes of nickel stocks when Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24. The mix of producer hedging and speculative overlay in the short position landscape is impossible to know with any precision. It's worth remembering that Tsingshan is itself a huge nickel producer, albeit not in a form that can be delivered against an LME short position. Excerpt from Oliver Wyman reportLATE ARRIVALThe shorts were not helped by the rapid build-up of a long position on March 7 which the report links to "one financial client with no material existing nickel position".

Although commanding a weighting of just 0.936%, lower than any other industrial metal, lead is included in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) for the first time this year. LME lead three-month price, stocks and spreadsSTOCKED OUTLME lead stocks fell by 54% to 25,150 tonnes over the course of last year. The distribution of LME warehouse stocks says a lot about the underlying stresses in the physical supply chain. China has emerged as a supplier of last resort to a stretched Western market. REBALANCINGThe lead market that has been trying to rebalance for two years and the return of Nyrstar's Port Pirie smelter in Australia after three months of maintenance should help.

LONDON, Jan 6 (Reuters) - March 2022 will go down in the history books as the moment the global nickel market broke down. The search is on for a new nickel price discovery process. Global Commodities Holdings (GCH) thinks it has a solution, a blast from the LME's own distant past that could have far-reaching consequences for industrial metals trading. This is self-evidently true of the LME nickel contract, which simply could not absorb the scale of short positions accumulated by China's Tsingshan Group. It may not just be nickel players keeping a close eye on GCH's proposed new metals pricing solution.

LONDON, Dec 22 (Reuters) - China's imports of primary aluminium jumped to a one-year high of 110,700 tonnes in November in a significant reversal of the recent trend. China's imports and exports of primary unwrought aluminiumTRADE FLOWS FLIP AGAINChina's primary aluminium export surge has passed. Global aluminium production monthly change annualisedSLOWING MOMENTUMChina's renewed import appetite for primary aluminium looks at odds with the combination of lockdown-weakened demand and strong domestic production growth. Expressed in terms of annualised production, China's collective run-rate has dropped by almost 1.2 million tonnes since August. Sichuan briefly rationed power to industrial users, including aluminium smelters, in August because of a protracted drought in the hydro-rich province.

London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouse stocks of the galvanising metal total 36,525 tonnes, the lowest amount this century. LME zinc price, spread and stocks; Shanghai Futures Exchange stocksSMELTER DISRUPTIONGlobal refined zinc output fell by 3.2% in January-October, according to the ILZSG, matching the drop-off in usage. Shanghai Metal Market (SMM) estimates total "social" inventories of zinc ingot across seven domestic markets at a low 56,000 tonnes. The longer-term question-mark over Europe's power-hungry smelters hasn't gone away, injecting a whole new twist in the zinc market narrative. In the short term the zinc market is going to remain beholden to the European power market.

From spodumene ore through lithium carbonate to lithium hydroxide, prices have more than doubled again this year after an explosive rally in 2021. Even Goldman Sachs, which outraged lithium bulls with a bearish market call in May, now thinks global supply will fall 84,000 tonnes short of demand this year. New EVs rolling off the automotive production line are the end of the lithium supply chain, but the chain itself is also expanding fast. All of them need raw materials, so their collective stock-building accentuates the rising EV demand curve. Moreover, much of lithium's supply growth is coming from new sources such as China's lepidolite deposits which come with their own new disruption potential.

Money manager positioning on the CME's copper contract shifted back to a net long at the start of November for the first time since early May. Bulls remain conspicuous by their absence, waiting to see how Doctor Copper prices the confusing combination of Western recession and tentative recovery in China. The bounce has forced an unwind of fund short positions, which have more than halved to 31,177 contracts as of last Tuesday. Bears have retracted their claws on both exchanges but there's been no corresponding surge in bullish exuberance among fund managers. Investment fund and other financial net positioning on LME copperRECOVERY AND RECESSIONFunds' reticence to commit to copper is understandable given the market is trying to price two conflicting trends.

LONDON, Dec 8 (Reuters) - A wave of new copper mine supply is washing through the market, with smelters reaping the benefits in higher treatment and refining charges (TCRCs). Annual benchmark copper smelter treatment and refining chargesNEW MINES, OLD PROBLEMSOnly two major copper mines were brought on stream between 2017 and 2021, according to the International Copper Study Group (ICSG). Moreover, what is not produced for whatever reason in 2022 will be deferred into 2023, when the ICSG expects the world's copper mines to produce 5.3% more metal. While mined production was up by 3.5% in January-September, refined copper production growth lagged at 2.3%, according to the latest ICSG estimates. Glencore says it can raise its copper production by around 60% to 1.6 million tonnes per year through relatively low-cost brownfield expansions.

LONDON, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The world is going to need another 50,000 tonnes of tin per year by 2030 to meet a looming surge in demand, according to the International Tin Association (ITA). The country exported 75,000 tonnes of refined tin last year with shipments running 8% higher through the first 10 months of this year. State producer PT Timah needs around two years to develop its existing tin chemical facility and longer to secure markets, Alwin Albar, chairman of the Association of Indonesian Tin Exporters, told a parliamentary hearing. China imported 22,600 tonnes of refined tin in the first 10 months of the year with Indonesian metal accounting for 19,000 tonnes. After peaking at 5,160 tonnes in September, headline LME tin stocks have fallen to 3,075 tonnes with 535 tonnes awaiting physical load-out.

LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel trading has turned wild again this week. LME and ShFE nickel contracts price and volumeVOLATILITY TRAPThe fund exodus after March has left a liquidity vacuum and a self-reinforcing volatility trap in the nickel market. ("A financially constrained physical market", April 3, 2022)LME nickel trading volumes have fallen steeply since March. Year-to-date nickel volumes are 24% below last year's equivalent period, the scale of decline flattered by strong trading activity in January and February. But until inventory and volumes rebuild, time-spread turbulence and perma-backwardation are becoming the new normal in the Shanghai market.

LONDON, Nov 15 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has announced it will continue accepting Russian metal as good delivery against its industrial metal contracts, for now at least. Absent formal government sanctions against Russian aluminium, copper and nickel, everything depends on how many players choose not to take Russian metal in their 2023 supply contracts. The LME's discussion paper on the acceptability of Russian metal has revealed just how split the global industry is on the question right now. Two favoured thresholds for Russian metal, an option deemed too complex, and one abstained from making a choice. The company is a major producer of the Class I refined nickel that is deliverable against the LME nickel contract.

The status of Russian metal has been a key talking-point at the many seminars and parties this week in London. Should the LME suspend deliveries of Russian aluminium, copper and nickel or should it maintain its policy of not preempting official sanctions? German copper producer Aurubis (NAFG.DE) has joined U.S. aluminium producer Alcoa (AA.N) in publicly calling for an LME ban on Russian metal. There is a lot of metal supply at stake here. An LME ban on deliveries of Russian metal would clearly have significant ramifications for both LME and physical market pricing.

LONDON, Oct 21 (Reuters) - It's not the first time the 145-year-old London Metal Exchange (LME) has found itself in crisis. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterMarch brought Nickel Crisis II, a much scarier update of the original, and now we have the unfolding Russian Metal Crisis. It's perilous legal territory and would have a significant impact on LME price and physical premiums. Meanwhile, CME's (CME.O) cobalt contract has steadily built up liquidity since its end-2020 launch even as activity in the LME's contract has steadily dwindled. Disgruntled funds have already voted with their feet, the collective departure causing LME trading volumes to slide by 6% over the first nine months of this year.

ShFE stocks, bonded warehouse stocks and Yangshan premiumSHANGHAI SQUEEZEThe ShFE copper contract has been characterised by low inventory and rolling tightness for some time. It is probable that troubled trade house Maike Group is also somehow in the Shanghai copper cocktail right now. LONDON'S RUSSIAN DILEMMAChina's strong call on copper is being felt in London, where falling LME stocks have rekindled time-spread volatility. The micro-macro divergence looks set to accentuate as LME stocks are stripped for shipment to China. Over 60% of LME copper stocks at the end of September were Russian metal.

LONDON, Oct 14 (Reuters) - European copper buyers are going to be paying a lot more to get their metal next year. Aurubis (NAFG.DE) cited a combination of high freight and power costs and low visible copper stocks. European annual copper premiumsSANCTIONS CREEPThere were no official sanctions on Russian copper until earlier this month, when the British government announced an asset freeze on Iskander Makhmudov. ASIAN DISCOUNTWhat will happen to all the Russian copper if Europe stages a collective boycott? The sharp hike in next year's European premiums says much about the cost of refusing Russian metal.

Annual supply contracts are in the process of being negotiated and at least some buyers are "self-sanctioning" by specifying no Russian metal in 2023. LME stocks and percentage of Russian metalCOPPER FLOWSThe proportion of Russian copper in LME stocks was actually higher in the third quarter of 2021, when it reached 95% of live tonnage, LME data shows. With just Nornickel still fully unsanctioned, the amount of potentially deliverable Russian copper is sharply reduced. Moreover, there is an obvious destination for any unsold Russian copper next year. The three options are to do nothing, set thresholds for Russian metal deliveries or suspend all warranting across all locations.

Indonesian nickel production by mine and productPOWERING UPIndonesia's nickel boom reflects both the country's rich mineral resources and the government's drive to push miners down the value-add processing chain. China's imports of nickel by product 2020-2022PRICING DOWNThis Indonesian supply surge was widely expected, but its exact timing was fuzzy given the number of new processing routes being used to convert ore to battery nickel. The combination of European demand shock, Indonesian production burst and the closing of the processing gap between stainless and battery nickel means there "is close to 30% downside for the nickel price into year-end". This mismatch of market-place and market is one of the reasons the LME nickel contract melted down in March. Macquarie Bank now provides three different nickel price forecasts for LME refined metal, Chinese nickel pig iron and Chinese nickel sulphate.

REUTERS/Kham/File PhotoLONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - While the rest of the world worries about recession, China is steadily increasing its imports of physical copper. The country's net call on refined copper from the rest of the world was up by 9.8% in the first eight months of the year. China's imports of copper scrapSCRAP AND CONCENTRATES IMPORTS UPThe restocking momentum is also travelling down copper raw materials import channels. GREEN DEMAND DRIVERChina's copper import hunger appears unsated. The sign-posting of more government investment in decarbonisation is a major reason for China's copper buyers to feel confident about restocking physical units at current price levels.

Another key alumina supply channel was shut off by the closure, also in March, of the Nikolaev refinery in Ukraine. CONTINUED METAL FLOWSCertainly, the flow of Russian metal into Western markets has been robust since march. That extreme premium sucked in every spare unit of aluminium, including a lot of surplus Russian metal. A partial boycott will coincide with increased Russian supply as Rusal's domestic market weakens further under the broader economic sanctions package. You can understand why the aluminium market is starting to worry about the prospect of large volumes of unsold Russian metal being dumped into LME warehouses.

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