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☆ Bottling U.S. inflation could cost workers dearly
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Given the vagaries of inflation psychology, it’s not clear the Fed is justified in being so single-minded. By the officials’ own forecasts, the inflation fight will hurt hundreds of thousands of workers. Projections published after the Fed’s December meeting suggest the view that by the time inflation returns to 2% in 2025, unemployment will have risen to 4%, from 3.5% in December. And Americans routinely overestimate how high inflation will run in the next year, according to the New York Fed, typically expecting around 3%. Projections published by the central bank at the December meeting showed inflation returning to 2% in 2025.

☆ McDonald’s finds inflationary happy place
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Jan 31 (Reuters Breakingviews) - McDonald’s (MCD.N) is having a good time at the bottom of the price food chain. The Chicago-based burger purveyor on Tuesday said that same-store sales rose 12% year-over-year in the last three months of 2022. That has helped restaurants grow, but McDonald’s is particularly benefitting. That’s despite McDonald’s touting the benefit of “strategic menu price increases” this quarter; the company previously said its U.S. prices should be up over 10% for the full year. How long this can continue probably depends on other options staying pricier – but for now, the nugget-maker has found its happy place.

☆ Breakingviews: TikTok’s trust-me tour will need at least 50 stops
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The social media company run by Chief Executive Shou Zi Chew will appear in front of a U.S. House of Representatives committee in March. But Chew, a Harvard University alumnus, will have to travel far beyond Washington to make America comfortable. But late last year, Chinese parent company ByteDance found that some employees had improperly accessed it to snoop on journalists. That’s likely to take up considerable airtime when Chew faces the House Committee on Energy and Commerce. But the short-video app also faces the prospect of death by 50 cuts, as individual states weigh their own approaches.

☆ TikTok’s trust-me tour will need at least 50 stops
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

☆ Economic data tells half-truth
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Jan 26 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The best measure for tracking how much value an entire economy puts out, arguably, is gross domestic product. But for those trying to parse through Thursday’s U.S. GDP reading, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the devil is in the details. The trouble is that economic growth was largely fueled by companies, not people, which reflects the real heartbeat of the economy. Strip out that and other inconsistent segments, and the U.S. economy grew at just a 0.2% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, the smallest jump since early 2020. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ AT&T’s fiber diet should help mitigate M&A bloat
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Jennifer Saba | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Jan 25 (Reuters Breakingviews) - AT&T (T.N) boss John Stankey is getting the telecom titan back in its lane. The $145 billion company on Wednesday disclosed a $25 billion non-cash impairment charge partly related to its landline business. AT&T benefited in other ways, adding 656,000 net new mobile subscribers who pay monthly in the fourth quarter, far better than what Verizon Communications (VZ.N) managed. In the fourth quarter, AT&T’s average revenue per user for its fiber product was approaching $65, $10 higher than what its non-fiber service fetches. At least it’s a venture in AT&T’s wheelhouse, and a higher fiber diet should help mitigate the M&A bloat.

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☆ Tesla’s price war can only go so far
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-25 | by ( Jonathan Guilford | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The $450 billion car company’s industry-leading profit margins give it plenty of ammo. Tesla’s fat margins mean it likely accounts for most of the profit made in the electric car industry. Either he could let demand fall further short of supply, potentially leaving Tesla’s rapidly expanding - and expensive - factories running idle. Recent reductions to Tesla's prices will help cheaper models qualify for federal tax credits, making them even more attractive. Zeroing out that profit could reduce Tesla’s implied global average selling price from $51,421 now to $38,949.

☆ Amazon creates bazaar for U.S. banking wannabes
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-24 | by ( Jeffrey Goldfarb | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The e-commerce goliath recently added to its growing pile of debt with an $8 billion loan. After first tapping the market’s biggest bookrunners, Amazon enlisted Canada’s TD Securities to shop the lesser-traveled byways around Wall Street for the follow-up deal. It’s easy to understand why the wannabes would jump at the chance to work with Amazon. Others such as BBVA, which offloaded its American subsidiary but kept its broker-dealer business, are keen to expand in U.S. investment banking. For Amazon, spreading the wealth is a chance to trial new banking relationships before potentially hiring them for more complicated matters.

☆ TikTok’s best U.S. charm offensive involves an IPO
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-19 | by ( Lauren Silva Laughlin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

But even if proposed fixes get past federal officials – no sure thing – it still must contend with activist state leaders. That’s problematic, given that trust between Chinese and American government officials is at a low. To make matters worse, ByteDance said late last year that some employees had improperly accessed TikTok user data of two journalists. More than 40% of American states, including Wisconsin and Texas, have banned the app on government-owned devices. But if an IPO helps TikTok to keep operating in the United States, it’s worth a try.

☆ Tim Cook’s pay re-enters earth’s atmosphere
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

His pay has been out of this world, but then so has the iPhone maker’s share price performance. Nonetheless Apple, its investors and its board have agreed Cook’s pay should orbit closer to Earth in 2023. On Friday, Apple said Cook’s targeted pay will fall to $49 million. Apple says it will target his pay between 80th and 90th percentile among peers in future years. A bigger improvement is making Cook’s pay less of a giveaway.

☆ California floods strike at planners’ blind spots
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Jan 11 (Reuters Breakingviews) - If California’s budget speaks to lawmakers’ prognostications, flooding wasn’t supposed to be such a big issue. But a current deluge of rainfall makes it clear that planning for disasters needs to be broader and more proactive. Flooding along the state’s coast is expected to cost California more than $1 billion, the Los Angeles Times reported Tuesday. While the California Senate called for extra flood protection in May, the budget only set aside $246 million for risk prevention. Municipal spending was painfully low with state and local authorities spending $48 million annually.

☆ Southwest will soar again into open U.S. skies
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Jan 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The costs of Southwest Airlines’ (LUV.N) Christmas debacle landed on Friday. The company expects that some 17,000 flight cancellations will eat away between $725 million and $825 million of fourth-quarter pre-tax profit, creating a net loss in the period. Despite experiencing major disruptions before, $20 billion Southwest always manages to resume cruising altitude. Southwest, United Airlines (UAL.O), Delta Air Lines (DAL.N) and American Airlines (AAL.O) account for about two-thirds of the market. The Southwest enterprise now trades below 4 times expected 2023 EBITDA, a discount to peers.

It’s the start of a class known as high-intensity interval training, a combination of treadmill and weight-lifting, at the boutique fitness studio Barry’s. The brothers and Rondeau, who now serves as Planet Fitness’ chief executive, hit upon a concept. Planet Fitness’ tag, “judgement free zone” is true to form. Part of the appeal is its $10 a month basic membership fee – which hasn’t changed – that Planet Fitness primarily collects through electronic funds transfers. Still, with solid and regular profits and a reasonable amount of debt, Planet Fitness has staying power, even if shareholders lose their shirts while its valuation comes in line.

☆ Smaller raises aid inflation fight
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

WASHINGTON, Jan 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - All things being equal, strong job growth is a bad sign in the fight against inflation. While employment is rising, wage growth is not. The Fed’s rate-setting committee had forecast an unemployment rate of 3.7% by the end of 2022. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said in November that wage growth of 3.5% to 4% would be consistent with the Fed’s 2% inflation target. As long as Americans’ raises stay modest, the country can shed its inflation problem without shedding jobs.

☆ China’s TikTok wins while U.S. dillydallies
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

WASHINGTON, Jan 6 (Reuters Breakingviews) - The United States has a new kind of Trojan horse. The White House tasked the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States with deciding whether TikTok can cut a deal to mitigate risks. While the Biden administration mulled an executive order, the measure was shelved, too, as CFIUS talks continued, Politico reported in December. Follow @BenWinck on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSThe United States banned the use of TikTok on government devices on Dec. 30. TikTok recently paused plans to hire consultants that would help enact a security deal with the United States, according to a Reuters article.

☆ Starbucks will go grande on workforce-lite future
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Amanda Gomez | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Jan 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Starbucks (SBUX.O) will have a workforce that will grow increasingly restless in 2023. Starbucks’ employees started organizing in 2021 in Buffalo, New York, and by late 2022, workers at more than 250 stores, or 2% of U.S. locations, had voted to join a union. At the same time, Starbucks is moving quickly to automate, which will continue into 2023 under incoming CEO Laxman Narasimhan. Even some Starbucks unions might not survive as the company closes stores and drags out negotiations. The coffee company may be getting the heat, but it will only motivate it to go grande on an employee-light future.

☆ Green surge is circuit breaker on nuclear revival
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Robert Cyran | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Jan 4 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Nuclear power received what seem like two plum gifts for 2023. Nuclear plants are expensive to build, and their complexity often causes projects to go way over budget. The cost of a new nuclear power station is around $168 per megawatt hour according to Lazard. China has 22 nuclear reactors under construction, but built renewables about twice as fast. CONTEXT NEWSVogtle 3 and 4 will be the first new nuclear reactors built in the United States in more than three decades.

☆ Sky spinoff is Comcast’s least-bad option
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Jennifer Saba | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The boss of U.S. media giant Comcast (CMCSA.O) may want to make an exception for Sky. Including acquired debt, Roberts paid a multiple of 15 times Sky’s EBITDA to clinch the deal, two and a half times the company’s enterprise value before the takeover battle began. The financial consequences of Roberts’ determination became apparent in October when Comcast took a non-cash impairment charge of $8.6 billion related to Sky. Goldman Sachs analysts expect Sky to generate adjusted EBITDA of $2.1 billion in 2023, nearly one-third less than in 2019. Comcast said on Oct. 27 that it took a non-cash impairment charge of $8.6 billion related to Sky assets for the third quarter of 2022.

☆ Activists will be no-holds-barred in 2023: podcast
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Jonathan Guilford | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - As once-hot companies lost market value, investors did lots of wrestling with management in 2022. Even more is to come, according to Lazard’s (LAZ.N) Chris Couvelier, who joins The Exchange to explain how corporate giants’ strategic woes and tempting cash piles will shape activism in the new year. Listen to the podcastFollow @JMAGuilford on TwitterloadingEditing by Thomas Shum and Amanda GomezOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Tesla merges into slower lane
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

NEW YORK, Jan 3 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Tesla (TSLA.O) made its name – and its once-$1 trillion valuation – by proving skeptics of its manufacturing prowess wrong. The question now is whether there’s enough demand to keep boss Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle assembly line busy. Competition in the United States and China, along with rising interest rates, also suggest Tesla is no longer unique. Musk cracked the electric-vehicle formula, but he’s stuck with the realities of the automotive market. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Elon Musk’s will-they-or-won’t-they Twitter debacle kept readers on tenterhooks via Refinitiv’s platforms and our two websites, Breakingviews.com and Reuters.com. Another piece posing the hard-hitting question, “What is Morgan Stanley (MS.N) smoking in Twitter LBO?”, garnered plenty of clicks on Breakingviews.com and via Refinitiv. Almost a third of the best-read lists tackled the outbreak of war in Europe, and its terrible ramifications. Views on the rouble and the prospect of the country’s economic collapse demanded attention. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Boardrooms will rediscover the value of gray hair
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-29 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

To firms keen to avoid repeating past mistakes, the graying of the Western workforce may not be a bad thing in 2023. The share of European over-55s in jobs grew to 20% in 2019, from 12% in 2014, according to official data. The typical incoming CEO is 55, a decade older than the average in 2005, according to Crist Kolder Associates. Money markets are pricing in U.S. rates of 5% by the summer. Financial markets will always love the next new thing, but for the time being, gray is good.

☆ Divided America will unite under economic duress
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That will happen when a new term begins in 2023, making it difficult for American legislators to accomplish goals. But one thing needs to happen: Congress must raise the debt ceiling so the U.S. government can continue to chug along. The debt ceiling, currently at $31.4 trillion, needs to go higher for government employees to get paid and welfare checks to be delivered, among other things. If only because they are all vying for a win in the presidential election in 2024, Congress could unite under high inflation and economic duress. Republicans will take control of the House of Representatives in 2023, making a bipartisan solution necessary to lifting the limit.

☆ Netflix will be next on Microsoft’s shopping list
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Jennifer Saba | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Look for him to add Netflix (NFLX.O) to the list in 2023. Since his 2014 promotion into the technology titan’s corner office, Nadella has embarked on a pricey shopping spree. Later, Microsoft bought LinkedIn for $26 billion and the speech recognition and artificial intelligence software developer Nuance for $20 billion. Even if Nadella loses out on the video-game company for competition reasons, however, owning Netflix would make strategic sense and probably be an easier sell in Washington and Brussels. With a market value 13 times that of Netflix, as of early December, $1.8 trillion Microsoft can afford Netflix.

☆ Apple finds a happy home in India
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( Pranav Kiran | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Helped by generous subsidies, Taiwanese Apple suppliers are starting to churn out more iPhones in India. Analysts at JPMorgan reckon India will have 6% of iPhone manufacturing capacity in 2022, and the rest will remain in China. Incentives and other subsidies partially compensate for inefficiencies in India, where demand for pricier devices is slowly picking up. HDFC Securities estimates that for an average smartphone, as little as 14% of the value is added in India. Whether or not India gets that far, Apple at least gets a happy new home.

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