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Data suggests recession risks remain high, but wages and U.S. and European interest rates are also still rising - so stick or twist? Here are five big calls investors are now making. Principal Global Investors chief global strategist Seema Shah said she maintained her view that government bonds would do well with recession still likely by year-end. Reuters Graphics4/ FRAGILE CHINASpluttering data, property market woes and meek economic stimulus have also busted new year bets of a Chinese mini-boom. Principal Global Investors' Shah said she still expected commodities to continue to struggle "because a combination of U.S. slowdown plus China slowdown should mean weak demand."

Persons: Bonds, Francesco Sandrini, Seema Shah, JP Morgan, Trevor Greetham, Florian Ielpo, Athanasios Vamvakidis, Morgan Stanley, Shah, Naomi Rovnick, Marc Jones, Alun John, Dhara Ranasinghe, Mark Potter Organizations: Treasury, Investors, Reuters, Global Investors, Royal London Asset Management, Lombard, Swiss, Bank of America, Fed, FX, JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: bitcoin, Europe's, British, tatters, Japan, CHINA

☆ US dollar drops to three-week low as Fed rate hikes nearly done
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-10 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

In afternoon trading, the dollar index , which tracks the U.S. currency against a basket of major peers, slid 0.3% to 101.98, a three-week low. With U.S. nonfarm payrolls out of the way, attention turns to U.S. inflation data due on Wednesday. The Norwegian crown firmed against the dollar and euro following Norway's inflation data. The Chinese yuan slumped against the dollar after weak inflation numbers in the world's second-largest economy. The weak Chinese data dragged down the Australian and New Zealand dollars, which are often used as liquid proxies for the Chinese yuan.

Persons: gainers, Mary Daly, nonfarm, Erik Nelson, Wells, Nelson, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Alun John, Rae Wee, Jamie Freed, Ed Osmond, Emelia, Will Dunham, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, U.S, CPI, New, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, London, Europe, China, Norwegian, New Zealand, Singapore

☆ Cash assets under management reach 'monster $7.8 trillion', Bank of America says
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( Lucy Raitano | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, July 7 (Reuters) - Investors globally ploughed more money into cash funds in the week to Wednesday, with total cash assets under management reaching a "monster" $7.8 trillion, according to a report from Bank of America (BofA) Global Research. Inflows into cash funds totaled $29 billion in the week to Wednesday, while global investors also bought $13 billion of equity funds and $9.8 billion of bonds, BofA said citing figures from funds data provider EPFR. Fears about a looming recession have kept many investors holding large cash positions throughout the first half of this year, even though the surprising resilience of the global economy has helped equity markets to rally sharply. The BofA data captures flows in the week to Wednesday, before key U.S unemployment data on Thursday raised expectations that the Federal Reserve will resume rate hikes in July after June's pause. The data caused a sharp selloff in which equity markets tumbled and short-dated bond yields on both sides of the Atlantic climbed past March levels to post-financial crisis highs.

Persons: BofA, Lucy Raitano, Alun John, David Holmes Organizations: Bank of America, Research, Federal Reserve, Thomson

☆ Bitcoin hits 13-month high
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, July 6 (Reuters) - Bitcoin hit its highest level in 13 months on Thursday rising as much as 3.28% to $31,500. The world's largest cryptocurrency has recently found support due to plans by fund managers, including BlackRock - the world's largest asset manager - to launch a U.S.-listed spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). Nasdaq refiled its application to list BlackRocks's ETF according to a filing made public on Monday after the U.S. securities regulator had reportedly raised concerns over initial filings. Reporting by Samuel Indyk, editing by Alun JohnOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Samuel Indyk, Alun John Organizations: BlackRock, Nasdaq, Thomson Locations: U.S

If Mayor Sadiq Khan's plan goes ahead, London's Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) will become one of the world's largest to tackle air pollution, encompassing 5 million extra people in the capital's leafier and less-connected outer boroughs. London's transport authority says only one in 10 cars in outer London are not ULEZ-compliant. But Khan, who was diagnosed with asthma and wrote a book this year on air pollution and climate change, says he is determined to face down his critics. "But the further away from the city centre you go, the less you can improve air quality," Verbeek added. "It's absolutely critical that even in a cost-of-living crisis we do not kick the can of air pollution down the road and let more children grow up unhealthy and unwell," she said.

Persons: Toby Melville, Sadiq Khan's, Carl Cristina, Cristina, Khan, Thomas Verbeek, Verbeek, Jemima Hartshorn, Teresa O'Neill, I've, Gavin Jones, William James, Andrew Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Delft University of Technology, Thomson Locations: Marble, London, Britain, Europe, Rome, Netherlands

REUTERS/Kim Kyung-HoonSINGAPORE/LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - The yen was under pressure against most other major currencies on Wednesday, even as Japanese authorities said they could intervene to prop it up, while the Australian dollar dropped after data showed inflation eased in May. The U.S. dollar rose to 144.26 yen on Wednesday, a fresh seven-month high, while the euro climbed to a 15-year high of 157.98 yen. Meanwhile, the Australian dollar fell to a three-week low of $0.6618 after the local consumer price inflation rate slowed to a 13-month low in May. It was last down 0.78% at $0.6634, and the neighbouring New Zealand dollar fell 1.17% to $0.6090, its biggest daily fall in a month. A measure of core inflation in Australia also cooled, in a sign interest rates might not have to rise again in July.

Persons: Kim Kyung, Masato Kanda, Lee Hardman, Jerome Powell, Andrew Bailey, Christine Lagarde, Kazuo Ueda, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Anantharaman, Jamie Freed, Emelia Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Hoon, U.S, MUFG, New Zealand, Traders, Bank's, U.S . Federal, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Hoon SINGAPORE, LONDON, Australia, Europe, U.S, Singapore

With economic and monetary policy outlooks varying, currency moves are increasingly out of sync with each other. More pain is also anticipated for the yuan, trading near seven-month lows, as well as smaller Asian currencies. It's continuing to weaken against some European currencies and also Latin American currencies," he said. MULTI-LAYERED CRISISKit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale, said the focus on monetary policy differences was also a result of uncertainties elsewhere. "We've got a one-in-a-100-years pandemic and once-in-75-years war and a-once-in-25-years energy crisis all thrown into the mix together," said SocGen's Juckes.

Persons: Yen, Pound, Jordan Rochester, Nomura, Lee Hardman, Hardman, Juckes, Morgan Stanley reckons, We've, SocGen's, You’ve, Dhara Ranasinghe, Alun John, John Stonestreet Organizations: The Bank of, European Central Bank, Reuters Graphics Rochester, Societe Generale, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Europe, COVID, Ukraine, The Bank of Japan, United States, Beijing, Scandinavia

That threw a new curveball at UK markets, as just last week economists polled by Reuters had unanimously expected the BoE to raise by 25 basis points. I would not be surprised if we see a 50-bp rate rise from the Bank of England tomorrow." Other analysts said delivering a larger rate rise on Thursday risked further undermining the BoE's messaging. Bets on where BoE rate hikes might peak rose as high as 6% on Wednesday. The rise in yields hit UK housebuilders (.FTNMX402020), which were down as much as 3.1%.

Persons: BoE, Melanie Baker, Liz, Nick Rees, Richard McGuire, Rabobank's McGuire, Yoruk Bahceli, William Schomberg, Dhara Ranasinghe, Danilo Masoni, Alun John, Peter Graff Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Royal London Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Wednesday's, MPC, FX, Monex, Rabobank, Sterling, Thomson Locations: Monex Europe

It overtook Europe's STOXX 600 (.STOXX), which is up 9%, in late May for the first time this year. In dollar terms, the STOXX 600 (.STOXXD) is still lagging, having gained 11.3% in 2023, while the euro is up 1.1%. "Relative to the U.S., European equities are looking less interesting and attractive," said Bernie Ahkong, co-chief investment officer at fund manager UBS O'Connor Global Multi-strategy Alpha. The euro zone economy was in technical recession in the first quarter, data from European statistics agency Eurostat showed last week. "But Europe looks even more unattractive than the U.S., because the temporary good data from Europe is really going to turn."

Persons: Europe's, Bernie Ahkong, UBS O'Connor, Ahkong, Geoffroy Goenen, Candriam, Graham Secker, Morgan Stanley, Hani Redha, Alex Richardson Organizations: UBS, UBS O'Connor Global, Alpha, U.S, Bank of America's, Eurostat, Barclays, Thomson Locations: U.S, Europe, China, PineBridge, United States

☆ Major central banks not done with rate hikes just yet
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

[1/2] A view shows the logo of the European Central Bank (ECB) outside its headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany March 16, 2023. Fed policymakers paused on its rate hikes since March 2022, and kept the federal funds target rate unchanged at 5.25%, its highest level since August 2007. Reuters Graphics5) AUSTRALIAAustralia's central bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point on June 6 to an 11-year high of 4.1%. It expects inflation to stay above its 2% target through 2025 and hinted at more rate hikes ahead. Reuters Graphics10) JAPANThe Bank of Japan remains the world's most dovish major central bank under new Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Persons: Heiko Becker, Jerome Powell, BoE, Christine Lagarde, Thomas Jordan, Kazuo Ueda, Samuel Indyk, Nell Mackenzie, Alun John, Naomi Rovnick, Harry Robertson, Chiara Elisei, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Dhara Ransinghe, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: European Central Bank, REUTERS, Heiko Becker LONDON, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters, Reserve Bank of New, UNITED, Fed, Bank of Canada, BRITAIN, Bank of, ECB, Norges Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Swiss National Bank, Bank of Japan, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Canada, Japan, dovish, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, U.S, Bank of England, AUSTRALIA, SWEDEN, NORWAY, SWITZERLAND, JAPAN

☆ Crypto exchange Binance hit by outflows of $780 million in last 24 hours - Nansen
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, June 6 (Reuters) - Investors have pulled around $780 million from crypto exchange Binance in the last 24 hours, data firm Nansen said on Tuesday, a day after the world's biggest crypto exchange was sued by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. loadingBinance's U.S. affiliate exchange registered net outflows of $13 million in the same period, Nansen said. Neither Binance nor Binance.US immediately responded to a request for comment. Reporting by Tom Wilson, editing by Alun JohnOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Nansen, Binance.US, Tom Wilson, Alun John Organizations: U.S . Securities, Exchange Commission, Thomson

☆ Stocks gain, dollar stumbles as US averts default and Fed skip bets rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Markets are now focused on U.S. jobs data due at 0830 EST (1230 GMT), the most significant macroeconomic release of the week, for more cues on the Federal Reserve's rate hike path. European mining stocks (.SXPP) increased 4.4%, boosted by a Bloomberg report China is working on new measures to support its property market. Copper prices were heading for their first weekly gain since April with other metals trading higher too. Spot gold was up marginally at $1,979 an ounce, but set for its biggest weekly gain in nearly two months, as a softer dollar and lower yields bolstered the bullion's appeal. Reporting by Ankur Banerjee; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Kim Coghill, Sriraj Kalluvila and Andrew HeavensOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Brendan McDermid LONDON, Jefferson, Jeff Schulze, payrolls, Philip Jefferson, Joe Biden, Phil Shucksmith, We've, Brent, Ankur Banerjee, Lincoln, Kim Coghill, Sriraj Kalluvila, Andrew Heavens Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, Labor, U.S . Senate, Bloomberg, Asia Pacific, Japan's Nikkei, Nasdaq, Senate, Newton Investment, Investors, U.S . Treasury, European Central Bank, ECB, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, China, Japan

☆ Tech shares see biggest-ever weekly inflow on AI boom-BofA
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks in general saw $14.8 billion of inflows, the largest weekly inflow since February. Investors are chasing a "summer rip tide into tech and stocks", BofA analysts wrote in a note, which referred to an AI "baby bubble", though they said they themselves remain bearish due to the impact of higher interest rates causing liquidity to tighten. Cash funds, normally in demand when investors are nervous, also saw inflows of $11.3 billion, their sixth straight week of inflows, while gold funds saw $200 million of outflows, according to BofA. They describe the trade as: "Buy HSI sell AI". Reporting by Alun John; Editing by Amanda Cooper and David HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: BoFa, Stocks, Cash, BofA, Alun John, Amanda Cooper, David Holmes Organizations: Technology, BofA Global, Tech, Nasdaq, Nvidia, Microsoft, Google, Meta, Hang Seng Tech, Thomson Locations: China

☆ Yen firms on policymaker meeting, dollar swings after debt deal
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-30 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The yen strengthened on news of the meeting, and held onto those gains, with the dollar last down 0.2% at 140.16 yen having earlier risen as high as 140.93, its highest since November 2022. That helped the dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six major peers, hit 104.53 in European trading its highest in 10 weeks, though then retreated to 104.02. "It seems to be win-win on almost any scenario for the dollar right now," said Jane Foley head of FX strategy at Rabobank. That, alongside a rethinking of market positioning - people had been dumping a lot of long dollar positioning since the end of last year - was supporting the dollar, she said.

[1/2] Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/IllustrationLONDON/SINGAPORE, May 30 (Reuters) - The yen strengthened on Tuesday on news of a meeting of Japan's finance ministry and central bank, while elsewhere the dollar rose to a two-month high against a basket of its peers after the U.S. debt ceiling deal. The dollar was last down 0.18% against the Japanese yen at 140.18 after the country's finance ministry said senior officials from the Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan and Financial Services Agency will meet from 5:30 p.m. (0830 GMT). Japanese central bank policy has been a major focus for investors in the past year after the BOJ last year intervened to strengthen the yen. Kenneth Broux, head of corporate research for FX and rates at Societe Generale, said FX intervention at current levels was unlikely.

[1/2] British Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six main peers, was down 0.14% at 102.29, having reached 102.75 in early trading on Monday, its highest since April 10. "With all of that, do you really want to buy a lot of risky assets this year?" The weak Chinese data was also weighing on the Australian dollar which dropped as much as 0.5% to $0.6665. The dollar also gained on China's offshore yuan , rising to as much as 6.981, its highest since March 10.

[1/2] British Pound and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. Broader factors are also weighing on the pound as well, said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank: "A lot of the better news for sterling is already in the price. "With all of that, do you really want to buy a lot of risky assets this year?" The weak Chinese data was also weighing on the Australian dollar which dropped as much as 0.5% to $0.6665. The dollar also gained on China's offshore yuan , rising to as much as 6.9795, its highest since March 10.

"We are looking into ways to express this (China recovery) theme in our portfolio rather than just say 'let's go long China equity'. "Given the higher risk premium of China stocks, the demand for 'shadowing' China will continue to be strong," Jefferies said. The relative cheapness of European stocks, at least at the start of this year, has also been important. Luxury stocks - less vulnerable to sanctions - have performed well, but geopolitical worries have bruised tech firms, and manufacturing difficulties have hurt commodity stocks. "What is doing extremely well this year is luxury; if you'd bought European miners hoping that China would stimulate, you'd have got it wrong."

[1/3] Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., May 4, 2023. Investors fear a government default as early as June 1 if Congress fails to resolve the deadlock. Our calculation shows she's not incorrect," said Steven Ricchiuto, U.S. chief economist at Mizuho Securities USA LLC in New York. "Treasury yields I would argue came down too much too soon." The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.168%.

REUTERS/Brendan McDermidTOKYO, May 9 (Reuters) - A gauge of global equities fell on Tuesday after weak Chinese trade data sparked concerns about China's domestic demand recovery, while the impasse over the U.S. debt ceiling sparked a sharp sell-off in short-dated Treasury bills. Investors fear a government default if Congress fails to resolve the debt ceiling deadlock as early as June 1. Longer-dated Treasury yields were little changed as investors waited for key U.S. consumer price inflation data on Wednesday. The dollar edged higher against major currencies, with the dollar index up 0.256%. Gold prices edged higher as some investors sought cover from economic uncertainty, including the debt ceiling deadlock.

☆ Euro falls after dovish ECB
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The ECB eased the pace of its interest rate hikes on Thursday with a 25-basis-point increase to its three policy rates, the smallest since it started lifting them last summer. "The ECB is clearly striking a more balanced tone and the market is pricing a bit of that, the euro is depreciating and pricing for interest rate hikes at future meetings is coming down, but just a little bit." The Fed has guided markets away from the possibility of rate cuts this year, though markets are pricing them in nonetheless. The Norwegian crown took a short trip after Norway's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. It initially softened sharply against the euro and dollar, but recovered.

The narrowing rate differentials between the U.S. and Europe, as markets price in more European rate increases than in the U.S., has been boosting European currencies in recent months. The Fed has guided markets away from the possibility of rate cuts this year, though markets are pricing them in nonetheless. The European Central Bank announces its rate decision later in the day. "So I think central banks, including the Fed, are at or very near the peak in their cash rates." The Norwegian crown took a short trip after Norway's central bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected.

☆ Investors pile into cash, but snap up Chinese stocks in tricky markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - Uncertainty over the economic outlook and the banking sector prompted investors to move money back into cash and gold in the week to Wednesday, according to BofA Global Research. But the current environment is tricky to trade, as evidenced by a push into perceived risky assets such as tech stocks and the largest inflows into Chinese equities in well over a year, BofA's note, which cited data from EPFR, said on Friday. There were $52.3 billion of inflows to cash funds in the week, a resumption of inflows after one-off outflows a week earlier, and also $200 million of inflows to gold. There have been $634 billion of inflows into cash in the year to date compared to $11 billion for the whole of 2022. Meanwhile, in the week to Wedensday there were $6.1 billion of inflows to Chinese equity funds, the most since January 2022, and $1.2 billion of inflows to tech funds, the most since November 2022.

The Swedish crown weakened sharply after the country's central bank was less hawkish than expected, while the euro rebounded 0.65% from losses on Tuesday when jitters over U.S. regional banks buoyed the safe-haven dollar. But the market expects further rate hikes from the European Central Bank, a difference with the Fed that is driving currency moves. The euro rose 1.05% against the crown to a high of 11.426, set for its biggest one-day gain since early March. Sterling was last trading at $1.2462, up 0.44% on the day, while the yen strengthened 0.28% at 133.34 per dollar. Investor attention will firmly be on the slate of central bank meetings in the next few weeks with the Bank of Japan, under the new Governor Kazuo Ueda, holding its policy meeting later this week.

The euro rose 0.8% against the crown to 11.401, set for its biggest one-day gain since early March. The dollar, which traded down 0.7% against the crown before the Riksbank's decision, was up 0.4% at 10.347. Elsewhere, the euro rose 0.4% against the dollar to $1.1019 and the pound rose 0.38% $1.2457 both rebounding from slightly larger falls a day earlier. However, "the broader spillover impact looks limited - other regional bank shares have held up better - and the market sees it as an isolated incident. The dollar slid 0.2% against the yen to 133.45.

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