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☆ Canada's Ivey PMI shows activity expanding at slower pace in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TORONTO, May 4 (Reuters) - Canadian economic activity expanded at a slower pace in April as growth in employment slipped and inventories declined, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data showed on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted index fell to 56.8 from 58.2 in March. The Ivey PMI measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada. The gauge of employment declined to an adjusted 55.8 from 60.3 in March, while the inventories index was down at 48.6 from 54.5. The unadjusted PMI fell to 55.6 from 65.2.

☆ Toronto home prices rise for third month in April
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] A for sale sign is displayed outside a home in Toronto, Ontario in Toronto, Ontario, Canada December 13, 2021. The average price of a GTA home rose to C$1.153 million ($846,425) in April, up 4% from March, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) data showed on Wednesday. On a year-over-year basis, the average price remained lower, but the pace of decline slowed to 7.8% from 14.6% in March. The average price was 13.6% below the February 2022 peak. "Many buyers have come to terms with higher borrowing costs and are taking advantage of lower selling prices compared to this time last year," TRREB President Paul Baron said in a statement.

☆ Canada ends Sudan evacuation flights amid dangerous conditions
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

"Because of the dangerous conditions, and in concert with decisions made by our allies, no further Canadian flights are planned from the Wadi Seidna airfield," Anand told a news conference. There remain in Sudan roughly 230 Canadian affected persons seeking assistance and information through Global Affairs Canada, Anand said. It has since conducted six flights, including two on Saturday, airlifting almost 550 people, while approximately 400 Canadians and permanent residents have been evacuated, including on Canadian and allied flights, Anand said. The government is working with allies to find alternative departure options, including via Port Sudan, said Anand. Britain has arranged an extra evacuation flight from Port Sudan in eastern Sudan which will depart on Monday, the government said on Sunday.

☆ Bank of Canada rate-cut bets recede as core inflation proves sticky
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. The BoC has made greater progress in slowing inflation than some major peers, including the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Still, the rise in inflation expectations could be another reason for the Canadian central bank to be cautious about easing rates. The central bank has left its benchmark interest rate on hold for two straight meetings after lifting it to a 15-year high of 4.50%. Those rate hikes have contributed to inflation, by driving up mortgage borrowing costs, but the main aim is to slow the economy.

☆ Canadian housing starts slow as BoC rate hikes weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TORONTO, April 19 (Reuters) - Canadian housing starts fell more than expected in March, contributing to a slower trend in recent months that follows a rapid increase in borrowing costs, data from the national housing agency showed on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) of housing starts fell 11% to 213,865 units from a revised 240,927 units in February, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said. "The SAAR of housing starts and the trend appear to be returning to pre-pandemic levels," Bob Dugan, CMHC's chief economist, said in a statement. The Bank of Canada has lifted its benchmark interest rate to a 15-year high of 4.50% to tackle inflation. For the first quarter, starts averaged 223,000, the weakest quarter since the depth of the COVID-19 pandemic in early-2020, Robert Kavcic, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note.

☆ Canadian housing starts fall 11% in March -CMHC
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TORONTO, April 19 (Reuters) - Canadian housing starts fell more than expected in March compared with the previous month as groundbreaking decreased on multiple unit and single-family detached urban homes, data from the national housing agency showed on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted annualized rate of housing starts fell 11% to 213,865 units from a revised 240,927 units in February, the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) said. Economists had expected starts to fall to 237,800. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Chizu NomiyamaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ TSX notches 6-week high as investors cheer US bank earnings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) rose 15.42 points, or 0.1%, to 20,579.91, its highest closing level since March 3. "Good bank earnings out of the U.S. spilled over into Canada," said Allan Small, senior investment advisor of the Allan Small Financial Group with iA Private Wealth. Canadian banks had been pressured in recent weeks by the banking stress in the United States and Europe. The Toronto market's heavily-weighted financials sector added 0.2%, while energy was up 0.3% as oil added to recent gains. Reporting by Shristi Achar A in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi MajumdarOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of Canada discussed raising rates at latest policy meeting -governor
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

April 14 (Reuters) - The governing council of the Bank of Canada discussed raising interest rates at its policy meeting earlier this week before deciding to leave them on hold, the central bank's governor, Tiff Macklem, said on Friday. Asked whether any council members were in favor of hiking rates at the meeting, Macklem said: "When I say that we've discussed whether we've done enough, that does imply that one of the things we discussed is whether we need to raise rates." On Wednesday, the Canadian central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.50%, as expected, but struck a hawkish tone, playing down market expectations for a rate cut this year as the risk of a recession diminished. Macklem reiterated on Friday that interest rates may need to stay "higher for longer" to get inflation back to the central bank's 2% target. The central bank estimates the neutral interest rate -- one that neither stimulates nor constrains the economy -- to be a range between 2% and 3%.

☆ Top Bank of Canada officials speak after rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

MACKLEM ON POTENTIAL FOR NEGATIVE QUARTERS FOR GROWTH"We're forecasting small positives. When you're forecasting small positives you can't rule out that there's going to be a couple quarters of small negatives. MACKLEM ON NEEDING A PERIOD OF WEAK GROWTH"I would remind you that we actually need a period of weak growth. We're expecting pretty weak growth for the rest of the year, something a little less than 1%." MACKLEM ON NOT FORECASTING A MAJOR CONTRACTION"We're not forecasting a major contraction.

☆ Bank of Canada seen on hold even as economy accelerates
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Last month, the Bank of Canada became the first major global central bank to pause its rate-hiking campaign, after lifting its benchmark rate to a 15-year high of 4.50%. This will carry through to higher economic growth." That is welcome news for most, but not for Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem, as it could call into question his decision to announce a conditional rate pause in January. "We suspect that the Bank of Canada will view the apparent strength in Q1 GDP similarly, and increase its estimate of potential growth." Canada's economy faces headwinds from higher borrowing costs and financial stability concerns, while inflation has cooled more than in the United States, said Nathan Janzen, assistant chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

The economy gained a net 34,700 jobs, almost entirely in the private sector, and the unemployment rate held steady at 5.0%, Statistics Canada reported. Analysts surveyed by Reuters had forecast that a net 12,000 jobs would be gained in March and the unemployment rate would edge up to 5.1%. Since December, the jobless rate has stayed just a notch above the record low of 4.9% observed in mid-2022. Thursday's jobs figures as well as robust GDP data released last week are likely to complicate the central bank's plans to avoid further rate moves. There were 18,800 full-time jobs added in the month, and 15,900 part-time jobs.

☆ Canada's Ivey PMI shows activity accelerating in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

TORONTO, April 6 (Reuters) - Canadian economic activity expanded at a faster pace in March as employment and inventories both climbed, Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data showed on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted index rose to 58.2 from 51.6 in February. The Ivey PMI measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada. The gauge of employment rose to an adjusted 60.3 from 59.4 in February, while the inventories index was up at 54.5, its highest since October, from 53.7. The unadjusted PMI rose to 65.2, its highest since May, from 50.8.

☆ Toronto home prices rise in March as new listings tumble
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

TORONTO, April 5 (Reuters) - Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home prices increased in March from February, with listings falling at a faster rate than did sales in comparison to a year ago, in the first look at the market since the Bank of Canada paused its interest rate hikes. The BoC raised interest rates eight consecutive times before moving to the sidelines last month. Sales tumbled 36.5% from a year ago, while new listings fell at a steeper rate, down 44.3%, indicating a tightening of market conditions. "As we moved through the first quarter, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Members were increasingly reporting that competition between buyers was heating up in many GTA neighbourhoods. ($1 = 1.3443 Canadian dollars)Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Leslie AdlerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ C$ posts biggest gain in nearly 2 months on OPEC+ output cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-03 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, settled 6.3% higher at $84.93 a barrel as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, or OPEC+, jolted markets with plans to cut more production. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.8% higher at 1.3412 per greenback, or 74.56 U.S. cents, its biggest single-day advance since Feb. 10 and its strongest level since Feb. 16. Canadian government bond yields eased across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year was down 1.5 basis points at 2.884%, while the gap between it and its U.S. equivalent narrowed by four basis points to 55.1 basis points in favor of the U.S. bond. Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ TSX pads quarterly gain as interest rate concerns ease
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 158.90 points, or 0.8%, at 20,099.89, its highest closing level since March 8. For the month, the TSX lost 0.6% as global banking turmoil led to a selloff in heavily-weighted financials and volatility in the price of oil. It was up 3.7% in the first quarter of the year but trailing a gain of 7% for U.S. benchmark the S&P 500. It was up 2.4%, helped by a 14.4% jump in the shares of Blackberry Ltd <BB.TO> after the company reported quarterly results. Shares of Shaw rose 3.3%, while Rogers was down 2.9%.

OTTAWA, March 31 (Reuters) - The Canadian economy grew more than expected in January and is seen expanding further in February, data showed on Friday, results that are likely to fuel concern by the central bank that inflation has yet to be fully tamed. The economy gained by 0.5% in January, ahead of analysts' forecasts of a 0.3% rise, after contracting 0.1% in December, Statistics Canada said. The Bank of Canada became the first major central bank to pause interest rate hikes in March after increasing them at eight consecutive previous meetings. With the key overnight rate now at 4.5%, the bank said it would not raise rates again if inflation came down as forecast. While inflation has eased, falling to 5.2% in February from a high of 8.1% last year, the economy is expanding faster than the central bank had forecast in January.

☆ TSX rises to three-week but caution remains on rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 180.12 points, or 0.9%, at 19,837.65, its fourth straight day of gains and its highest closing level since March 9. "Discretion is the better part of valor," said Joseph Abramson, co-chief investment officer at Northland Wealth Management, quoting the well-known proverb. Information technology rose 1.5% as bond yields steadied, while both energy and heavily weighted financials advanced 1%. Dollarama Inc (DOL.TO) shares added 2.5% as the company reported a surge in same-store sales. The utilities sector, which includes some renewable energy companies, was up 1.1%.

☆ Reactions: Canada 2023/24 budget deficit to jump, Ottawa to boost spending
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

JULES BOUDREAU, SENIOR ECONOMIST, MACKENZIE INVESTMENTS"The surprise was more on the revenue side more than the spending side. Prior to this budget we were not eligible for the carbon capture utilization and storage (CCUS) investment tax credit, but they have now broadened the eligibility parameters." "The big open question, heading into this budget was how was Canada going to react to the Inflation Reduction Act ... MARK ZACHARIAS, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF CLEAN ENERGY CANADA"We thought today's budget was generally excellent and it sets Canada on a path for prosperity. "The investment tax credits for clean tech manufacturing positions Canada as a leader, particularly in zero-emissions vehicles."

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended down 72.86 points, or 0.4%, at 19,459.92, preliminary data showed. The energy sector fell 1.8% as the price of oil settled 1.3% lower at $69.96 a barrel. Oil fell after U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm told lawmakers that refilling the country's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) may take several years. Heavily weighted financials were down 0.7% as concerns about the global banking sector lingered following interest rate hikes by the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England. Bombardier shares ended up 2.8% after the company raised its 2025 revenue and free cash flow targets at its investor day, banking on strong demand for private flights.

The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) ended up 131.71 points, or 0.7%, at 19,519.43, preliminary data showed. The financial sector (.SPTTFS), which accounts for nearly 30% of the TSX, added 0.5%. Energy was up 2.9% as oil rebounded from a 15-month low. The materials sector, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, gained 0.8%. Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Pooja Desai and David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Analysis: Sweden faces recession as housing market troubles take toll on economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Simon Johnson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

But in Sweden, the structural problems rooted in its housing market are magnifying the effects. Banking group Nordea (NDAFI.HE) expects household consumption to fall around 2% in 2023, while the National Board of Housing expects housing starts to fall around 50% in the coming year compared with 2021. "However, in the last few months, the interest rate has almost tripled making it almost unaffordable to survive," Logan said. Sweden's banks are among the most strongly capitalised in Europe - partly as a result of worries about the housing market. But Sweden's economy is likely to remain a hostage to imbalances in the housing market while its structural problems go unresolved.

☆ Bank of Canada says it needs more evidence that rates are high enough
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

By Steve Scherer and David LjunggrenOTTAWA, March 9 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada needs more evidence to gauge if interest rates are high enough to tame inflation, in part because the economies of major trading partners are doing better than forecast, senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers said on Thursday. She spoke a day after the central bank left its key overnight interest rate on hold at 4.50%, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its tightening campaign as inflation eases. "If evidence accumulates suggesting inflation may not decline in line with our forecast, we're prepared to do more." The economic growth and inflation outlooks for both the United States and Europe are higher than the bank had expected in January. (Additional reporting by Fergal Smith in Toronto)((Reuters Ottawa bureau; david.ljunggren@tr.com))Keywords: CANADA CENBANK/Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Bank of Canada and Fed head for historic divergence, in a blow to loonie
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Fergal Smith | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A sign is pictured outside the Bank of Canada building in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, May 23, 2017. A lower expected peak for Canadian rates has pressured the Canadian dollar against its U.S. counterpart. ,Canadian rates have peaked below U.S. rates in the three major tightening cycles since the start of the millennium, with the gap ranging between 50 and 75 basis points. "Poring over the national accounts, it's increasingly clear that interest-sensitive demand has wilted in Canada," Warren Lovely and Taylor Schleich, strategists at National Bank of Canada, said in a note after the recent GDP data. Still, there could be a limit to how much interest-rate divergence the BoC will allow, say analysts.

OTTAWA, March 8 (Reuters) - The Bank of Canada on Wednesday left its key overnight rate on hold at 4.50%, as expected, becoming the first major central bank to suspend its monetary tightening campaign in the face of an anticipated easing of high inflation. In its statement, the BoC reiterated that it was "prepared to increase the policy rate further if needed to return inflation to the 2% target." The majority of the 32 economists surveyed by Reuters last week said the central bank would likely keep rates on hold through the end of this year, and all of them forecast it would stay on hold on Wednesday. Before the announcement, money markets had expected the policy rate to remain unchanged but were pricing in another tightening by September. The central bank said core inflation measures and short-term inflation expectations still needed to fall in order to return inflation to target.

☆ Canada's trade surplus widens to C$1.92 bln in January on food, autos
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Total exports rose 4.2% in January on the back of gains in all product categories that more-than offset a fall in energy products exports. Farm, fishing and intermediate food products, motor vehicles and parts, and metal and non-metallic mineral products all contributed roughly equally to the rise in exports, Statscan said. By volume, total exports were up 5.3% in January. Imports increased 3.1% after two consecutive monthly declines, largely driven by motor vehicles and parts as well as industrial machinery, equipment and parts. By volume, total imports were up 4.1%.

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