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☆ Here's why stocks are still vulnerable in September
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-28 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

The bad news is, stocks still aren't cheap, rates still seem like they want to push higher, and China is definitely weaker. Stocks are vulnerable in September: The 'pain trade' is down After that, it's time to repair some damage to the markets. Here's the good news: even though stocks have been straight down most of this month, 5% off the highs is a pretty garden variety correction. Nvidia and AI stocks: how much more do you want? I don't know if that is true, but it sure looks like much of the demand for AI stocks has been pulled forward.

Persons: Jerome Powell's Jackson, Powell, Stocks, there's, Banks, Russell, Susan Collins, Patrick Harker, Joachim Nagel, Thursday's, I'm, Chris Harvey, it's, Jackson Organizations: Federal, deflator, Regional Bank ETF, Energy, Boston, Financial Times, Philadelphia Fed, CNBC, ECB, Nvidia, Microsoft, Cisco, Intelligence, Technology, IBM Locations: China, Wells Fargo, Jackson

☆ Why has the stock market been weak lately? It's not mysterious
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

.SPX 1M mountain S & P 500 1-month Since then, it's been one excuse after another. Everything Tuesday was down about 1.0-1.25% midday, including the equal-weight S & P 500 (RSP) the market-cap weighted S & P 500, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and the small-cap Russell 2000, but most ended down a fraction of a percent. At nearly 5% yield, money market funds are still sucking in money, even with the S & P 500 up 18% this year. I mentioned Monday that money market inflows reaccelerated last week: $21 billion worth of inflows were added, according to Goldman Sachs. "The pace of money market flows reflects a larger apathy towards stock," Todd Sohn from Strategas told clients.

Persons: it's, Moody's, Mike O'Rourke, Dow Jones, Sellers, Harry Whitton, Russell, Goldman Sachs, Todd Sohn, Strategas, David Kelly Organizations: Bank of Japan, Jones Trading, Regional Banking, Nasdaq, Chief Global, Morgan Asset Management Locations: Japan, China, U.S

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Markets care more about expectations than numbers
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-20 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Michael Nagle | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Prior to the start of the second-quarter earnings season, investor relations departments and analysts massaged expectations downwards. More than three quarters of S&P companies that have reported results have exceeded expectations, according to FactSet data. "Right now, short-term optimism is higher than we've seen since December 2021, right before the start of the 2022 bear market."

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Michael Nagle, Goldman, Darla Mercado, Gina Francolla, Tom De Luca, De Luca, we've Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Vanguard Locations: New York

The benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) was solidly higher for most of the afternoon, but stocks sold off toward the end of the session. "The jobs report today I think is consistent with what the Fed would like to see," said Josh Jamner, investment strategy analyst at ClearBridge Investments. Among S&P 500 sectors, defensive groups fell the most, with consumer staples (.SPLRCS) down 1.3%. For the week, the S&P 500 fell about 1.2%, the Dow slid roughly 2% and the Nasdaq dropped 0.9%. The S&P 500 posted 11 new 52-week highs and five new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 45 new highs and 63 new lows.

Persons: Levi Strauss, Quincy Krosby, stoked, Josh Jamner, Brendan McDermid, Russell, Dow, Austan Goolsbee, Alibaba, decliners, Lewis Krauskopf, Sinead Carew, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Caroline Valetkevitch, Shinjini Ganguli, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, LPL, Reserve, ClearBridge Investments, Dow Jones, Energy, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Chicago Fed, Rivian Automotive, Ant Group, NYSE, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York City, New York, Bengaluru

LONDON, July 5 (Reuters) - Dismissal of this year's much-scorned equity market rally as the frothy preserve of a handful of AI-fuelled stocks may be both misleading and also one of its strengths. Or, put another way, if you remove the top 10 stocks, the other 490 would only have gained 4%. And an eye-popping 75% surge in the high-octane 10-stock FANG+TM index (.NYFANG) - mega cap U.S. digital and tech stocks including Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla - underlines that. In short, they're hard to avoid unless you dodge either U.S.-listed companies or equity markets altogether. "While stock market investments may be risky in the short run, when viewed against inflation they have offered far more certainty in the long run," he told clients.

Persons: Russell, Andrew Lapthorne, Japan's, Germany's DAX, Italy's, Duncan Lamont, Lamont, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Nasdaq, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, H1 Stock, Japan's Nikkei, MIB, McKinsey, Bank, Big Tech, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: Europe, Japan, U.S, United States

☆ Morning Bid: Midyear market mettle, Nike clipped
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. jobless claims posted their biggest drop in 20 months last week, first-quarter economic growth was revised higher and inflation below forecast. The Federal Reserve's favoured PCE inflation gauge for May is due for release later. The constellation of resilient growth, a tight labour market, buoyant consumer confidence and a rebounding housing market are pushing back recession fears despite sharply rising interest rates that the Fed is signalling could rise twice more. The offshore yuan hit its weakest since Nov. 4 as pressure for lower domestic interest rates builds - in contrast to the U.S. direction of travel. Events to watch for later on Friday:* U.S. May personal income, spending and PCE inflation gauge.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Federal Reserve's, Russell Organizations: Federal, Nasdaq, International Monetary Fund, Dallas Fed PCE, Chicago, PMI, University of Michigan's, Constellation Brands, Reuters Graphics, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Britain, Pakistan, Brussels

June 27 (Reuters) - U.S. stock indexes rebounded on Tuesday from a recent losing streak as upbeat economic data soothed investor worries about an imminent recession triggered by the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate hikes. While the economic data was encouraging, Rhys Williams, chief strategist at Spouting Rock Asset Management, said the market also rose on seasonal factors. "You'd a bad week in the stock market last week and a bad day on Monday. According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) gained 49.25 points, or 1.14%, to end at 4,378.07 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) gained 219.71 points, or 1.65%, to 13,555.49. Signs of U.S. economic resilience also boosted the Dow Transports index (.DJT) and small-cap Russell 2000 index (.RUT).

Persons: Rhys Williams, It's, Williams, Russell, Jerome Powell's, hawkish, Dow, Sinéad Carew, Sruthi Shankar, Johann M, Terence Gabriel, Shinjini Ganguli, Richard Chang Organizations: Federal, Management, Dow, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow Transports, Traders, bps, European Central Bank, Microsoft Corp, Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Tesla Inc, Nvidia Corp, Inc, Citigroup, Nvidia, Walgreens Boots Alliance, CVS Health Corp, Rite Aid Corp, Lordstown Motors Corp, U.S, Thomson Locations: Sintra , Portugal, U.S, New York, Bengaluru

☆ Friday could offer a once-in-a-year chance to cash in on tech gains
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Following on the rebalancing of S & P indexes last week, on Friday the Russell indexes will do their annual rebalancing. FTSE Russell also has a vast suite of products indexed to benchmarks like the small-cap Russell 2000 , the large-cap Russell 1000 , and the Russell 1000 Growth and Value indexes. FTSE Russell estimates that about $12.1 trillion is currently benchmarked to the FTSE Russell indexes. On average, about 12% of the Russell 2000 (about 242 stocks) turns over every year since 2006, according to FTSE Russell. This year, about 15% of the Russell 2000 will turnover, and about 2% of the Russell 1000, according to Wells Fargo.

Persons: Russell, It's, Wells Fargo, Chris Harvey, Mike O'Rourke, Wells Fargo's Harvey Organizations: Russell, Technology, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Investors, Netflix, Google, FTSE Russell, Jones, Amazon Locations: Wells Fargo, Freeport McMoRan .

If you want to be bullish, you say inflation is down more than 50% since its peak. If you want to bearish, you can say inflation is still more than twice the Fed's target," Young said. The S&P 500 was up 0.69% at 4,368.75 points. Advancing issues outnumbered falling ones within the S&P 500 (.AD.SPX) by a 5.0-to-one ratio. The S&P 500 posted 43 new highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq recorded 131 new highs and 39 new lows.

Persons: Stocks, Liz Young, Young, Russell, JD.com, Viterra, Shristi Achar, Sruthi Shankar, Noel Randewich, Vinay Dwivedi, Richard Chang Organizations: Oracle, Nasdaq, Dow, Federal Reserve, U.S . Labor Department, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Traders, Apple, Nvidia, Alibaba, Dow Jones, Intel, Bunge Ltd, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Bengaluru, Oakland , California

☆ Morning Bid: Canadian cloud, rates markets checked
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Mike DolanWildfire smoke wasn't the only cloud from Canada that drifted over the United States this week. It was enough to nudge borrowing rates back up slightly across the maturity spectrum and served a shot across the bow to otherwise buoyant stock markets and subdued risk gauges. Futures markets still see the Fed skipping a rate rise next week, delivering one final quarter-point hike in July and reversing that move by year end. Two-year Treasury yields firmed about 10 basis points to 3.80% - and sovereign debt yields around the world edged higher in sympathy. With Fed policymakers in a blackout period before next week's meeting, and new data points thin this week, market edginess was dominated by shifting sentiment more than anything.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Russell, Jane Merriman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Weekly U.S, Fed, Stock, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson, Reuters Locations: U.S, Canada, United States, Brussels

☆ Morning Bid: Fearless VIX, China miss, Canada hike?
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Wall St's 'fear index', the VIX (.VIX) gauge of implied S&P500 equity volatility, closed below 14 on Tuesday for the first time since February 2020 - more than 5 points below its 33 year average. What's more, the OECD saw Fed rates peaking after just one more hike to the 5.25-5.5% range and "modest" cuts next year. Oil prices remain lower on the week despite new Saudi output cut plans and year-on-year prices are still falling at 36%. Events to watch for later on Wednesday:* Bank of Canada key policy interest rate announcement* U.S. April trade balance. Federal Reserve issues Consumer Credit report for April* Britain's Prime Minister Rishi Sunak travels to Washington to meet with U.S. President Joe Biden* U.S. corporate earnings: Campbell Soup, Brown-FormanReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsReuters GraphicsBy Mike Dolan, Editing by Louise Heavens <a href="mailto:mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com" target="_blank">mike.dolan@thomsonreuters.com</a>.

Persons: Mike Dolan, you'd, eked, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Rishi Sunak, Joe Biden, Campbell, Brown, Forman, Louise Heavens Organizations: U.S, Organisation for Economic Cooperation, Development, World Bank, OECD, Bank of Canada, Canadian, Bank of, Federal, Britain's, Forman Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, York, Saudi, Asia, Bank of Canada, Washington

☆ Wall Street pros see the S&P 500 rallying further — and reveal how best to play it
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The S & P 500 is going from strength to strength this year, closing at a one-year high last Friday and up over 10% year-to-date. While many analysts have cautioned that the rally could be a narrow-based one, with gains driven by just a few major tech stocks, some Wall Street pros are expecting the S & P 500 to rally further. Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Tuesday that he has raised his S & P 500 price target from 4,150 to 4,450 . Emanuel said that the AI buzz driving stocks has turned into a so-called "momentum market" like the Internet-related rally of the late 1990s to 2000. "The Momentum broadened last week into the larger S & P 500 and importantly the Small Cap Russell 2000; this broadening is very positive and looks set to continue," he wrote in notes sent to CNBC.

Persons: Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel, CNBC's, Emanuel, Russell, Brian Stutland, Stutland, we're, Paul Meeks, we'll, Evercore, laggards, Meeks Organizations: CNBC, Equity Armor Investments, Independent Solutions Wealth Management, Copa Holdings, Nvidia, Devices, Google, Marvell Technology

☆ Amazon leads declines in discretionary sector, streaming companies outperform
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Sinéad Carew | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Amazon shares deepened losses after a Wall Street Journal report said the online retailer and video streamer is planning an advertising-supported tier for its Prime Video streaming service and that it is in talks with Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount about including ad-based tiers of their streaming services through Amazon Prime Video Channels. Forrest said the move would suggest that "the Prime service isn't enough" to keep customers. Along with streaming video, Prime subscriptions also include free shipping for eligible products, which helps boost Amazon's online sales. For anyone who has dropped the Prime service, Forrest said they would "buy from somewhere else because nobody wants to pay for shipping and pretty much everybody is offering free shipping now." The S&P's consumer discretionary sector, which includes Amazon, was down 0.9%.

Persons: Chris Licht, Kim Forrest, Forrest, Sinéad Carew, Deepa Babington Organizations: Amazon.com, Warner Bros Discovery, Paramount, Amazon Prime, Warner Bros, CNN, Amazon, Bokeh Capital Partners, Thomson Locations: Pittsburgh

☆ Stock market scales steep wall of worry to approach one-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-03 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

.SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 this year Yet with it all, the S & P 500 managed three closes in a week above the 4200 level deemed by most to be the top of its range, before jumping 1.5% Friday to finish at 4282 – just half a percent below its August peak closing value. S & P 500 poised to break out The trip to 4300 today comes under quite different, and less malign, conditions. Back then there was still nearly 300 basis points of Fed tightening ahead of us and earnings forecasts were dropping fast. Even at the August stock-index highs, the CBOE S & P 500 Volatility Index was scarcely able to drop below 20 – typically a floor during bear markets. In the near term, the S & P 500 looks a bit stretched, the index pushing well above its trend channel – a sign both of respectable strength and temporary overheating.

Persons: –, Jerome Powell, Russell, Jeff DeGraaf, it's, Let's Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Fed, Renaissance Macro Locations: U.S

☆ 'Market instability' possible before last-minute debt ceiling deal, JPMorgan says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The looming potential of a federal debt default could soon cause a sharp increase in fear in the stock market, according to JPMorgan Chase. "Our base case remains that the debt ceiling ultimately does get lifted/suspended though the journey to that end could be at the eleventh hour and drive significantly higher market instability than appreciated by the market currently," Lakos-Bujas wrote. as a consequence of partial/comprehensive debt ceiling deal and/or Federal budget negotiation in the fall of this year," Lakos-Bujas wrote. One way for investors to guard against a sharp move in stocks is to buy call spreads on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) , often called Wall Street's fear index. .VIX 1Y mountain The Cboe Volatility Index is trading near its lowest level of the past year.

☆ As the Nasdaq recovers half of its bear market losses, signs of broader strength emerge
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-20 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

This particular conversation has been chewed over pretty thoroughly, and I've hit on it last week and the week before . And perhaps more relevant, last week saw at least tentative signs of a desired broadening out. It's worth pointing out too that the recent surge in the familiar Nasdaq megacaps has a lot to do with mean reversion, after the Nasdaq lagged the equal-weighted S & P 500 in 2002 by 20 percentage points. The NDX has been in a long-term structural uptrend relative to the S & P 500 for the past decade. As noted, the S & P 500 touched 4,200 late in the week before easing back a bit.

☆ Morning Bid: Debt ceiling drama aside, world economy looks shaky
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Naomi RovnickRisk appetite has perked up on global markets thanks to optimism that U.S. Democrats and Republicans are nearing a deal to raise the debt ceiling and avoid an economically catastrophic default. But while a debt ceiling reprieve could boost markets in coming days, the backdrop of a lacklustre global economy is unchanged, with its twin engines, China and the United States, sputtering. Citi's China economic surprise index is at its lowest since January (.CESICNY), a further sign that the growth outlook has weakened. The S&P 500 is trading at a rich 18 times forecast earnings, buoyed by the tech mega-stocks that dominate the index. Developments that could affect markets on Thursday:* Economic events: U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. existing home sales, Philly Fed business index.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Amid banking woes, faltering US small-caps offer ominous economic sign
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-14 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, May 12 (Reuters) - A U.S. stocks rally is leaving behind smaller companies, a sign that investors may be bracing for economic turmoil ahead. "Typically in a recession, small caps underperform." Last month it downgraded its view on U.S. small caps from "unfavorable" to "most unfavorable." Some investors are more upbeat about the outlook for small caps, particularly when looking beyond the next several months. One reason is that small caps, being sensitive to economic fluctuations, tend to shine early in a market recovery.

☆ Just a few stocks are behind the market's recent resilience. A real concern or routine rotation?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

After Friday's 0.8% lift, the S & P 500 is just a sliver below its Feb. 2 year-to-date high. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD The same dynamic is happening at the sector level, too. JP Morgan this year is outperforming the equal-weighted S & P 500 financials by 13 percentage points. "While breadth is bad, the S & P 500 is actually one of the weakest indices in the G7," he says. By the way, the top-heaviness of the index also extends to valuation: The equal-weighted S & P 500 is nearer to 15-times earnings.

☆ Silicon Valley Bank blowup highlights deposit risks vs Treasurys
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dramatic decline of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) has caused concerns about contagion risk. The bank is a major lender to Silicon Valley venture capital funds and startups. Startup firms have seen a dramatic slowdown in growth as higher rates have hurt their ability to grow and raise funds. Those startups have been burning through cash at a rapid clip, which means they have also been reducing the size of their bank accounts. This has created some serious collateral damage in regional banks such as Zions, M & T Bank and Keycorp, but how much contagion risk is there?

☆ BANK OF AMERICA: Buy these 25 stocks as their buybacks give them a major edge in the downturn that's just beginning
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-19 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Hall put together a list of "Buy" rated stocks that have been leading shares repurchasers recently. Bank of America was one of the firms that told investors to bet on small-cap stocks going in to 2023 — and so far, their faith in smaller companies have been rewarded. The price of the small-cap Russell 2000 index has jumped 11.1% year-to-date. When that's the case, companies that rank in the top 25% of Russell 2000 stock repurchasers have outperformed the index substantially. "We provide a screen of Russell 2000 stocks with the biggest YoY net reduction in share count over the last 12 months, limiting to those which are Buy-rated by BofA fundamental analysts," she wrote.

☆ EVERCORE: Buy these 20 oversold value stocks that are due for a turnaround that will see them outperform in 2023 and beyond
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Evercore ISI says healthcare, staples, and energy stocks are set up for outperformance in 2023. Strategist Julian Emanuel says investors should make sure they're allocated to value stocks. Emanuel said one way investors can maximize their chances of success is to buy "misperceived" value stocks that have underperformed recently even though analysts' earnings forecasts for those companies are rising. He recommended concentrating on energy, healthcare, and consumer staples companies, as oil supply tensions and the resurgence of China's economy should boost energy prices, while healthcare and staples stocks do well in stagflationary or recessionary periods. The following 20 stocks are ranked based on their performance relative to the S&P 500 from those October 13 lows through January 13.

☆ RBC: Buy these 23 high-conviction growth stocks for market-beating returns that could top 90%
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-11 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

RBC Capital Markets is updating its quarterly list of its favorite small-cap growth stocks. The stocks are "Outperform" rated, and RBC says they have upside of 19% to 98% as of December 8. For investors who want to get familiar with that large space, RBC's list of top small-cap growth ideas could be one place to start getting ideas. "The list is an opportunity to highlight companies that have either an attractive normalized growth story or strong durable growth characteristics," said the firm's analysts. The companies are ranked from lowest to highest based on how much upside RBC's analysts think they have, as reflected in their price targets.

☆ Wall Street Week Ahead: Wall Street hunts for recession plays to weather potential 2023 turbulence
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-02 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

JPMorgan, Citi and BlackRock are among those who believe a recession is likely in 2023. Nevertheless, many on Wall Street are increasing allocations to areas of the market that have a reputation for outperforming during uncertain economic times. The S&P 500 Health Care sector is down around 1.7% year-to-date, handily beating the broader index's performance. JPMorgan's analysts forecast a "mild recession" and expect the S&P 500 to test its 2022 lows in the first quarter of next year. Signs of ebbing inflation have fueled hopes that the Fed may tighten monetary policy less than expected, supporting a rebound in the S&P 500 that has buoyed the index from its October low.

☆ One year after Nasdaq peak, growth stocks have tumbled and crypto has broken — where to from here?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-12 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The Nasdaq record came just ten days after Bitcoin's apex near $67,000, a moment when total cryptocurrency market value topped $2.8 trillion. Those numbers today are under $17,000 for Bitcoin and the crypto market cap is around $800 billion, down 70%-plus. Just days after the November 2021 Nasdaq high, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell abruptly and publicly shifted his rhetoric on inflation and monetary policy, endorsing a much faster removal of stimulus than previously indicated. In the 18 months leading to the March 2000 Nasdaq peak, the index more than tripled. One year after the March 2000 Nasdaq peak, with the index down some 60%, the Nasdaq 100 still had a forward price/earnings ratio above 50.

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