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☆ Global markets in H1: Banks vs the machines
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-30 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Linking it all has been the relentless rise in interest rates, which was exactly what battered markets in 2022. But just that this time has been different due to an unshakeable view that the end of the cycle is near. A 12%, or $6 trillion, rally in value of world stocks (.MIWD00000PUS), (.FTAWORLDSR) although it has been ominously top heavy. Thanks largely to ChatGPT, the AI boom has seen the 'Big Tech' giants enjoy a combined surge of 70%. There have also been around a total of 90 interest rate hikes this year by central banks globally versus just 17 cuts.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Lehman, Trevor Greetham, Gold, Viktor Szabo, Tayyip Erdogan's, haven't, bitcoin, Binance, Milla Savova, Dhara Ranasinghe, Tom Wilson, Rashmi Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Nikkei, LONDON, Big Tech, Apple, Microsoft, Google, Netflix, Meta, Nvidia, Royal London Asset Management, Japan's Nikkei, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan's, Silicon Valley Bank, behemoth, UBS, Treasury, Wall, BlackRock, Commodities, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, El Salvador, Sri, Zambia, Ukraine, Pakistan, Argentina, Japan, Egypt, Nigeria, London

☆ Zambia's bondholders see debt restructure deal in coming weeks
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-27 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, June 27 (Reuters) - Zambia's international bondholders expect to strike a debt restructuring deal with the country "in the coming weeks", a leading member said on Tuesday, a move that would draw a line under the nation's near three-year stint in default. "So I think we (bondholders) can now reach a deal in the coming weeks." Daly said that was something bondholders themselves had called for when restructuring talks became stalled last year over how much debt relief would be required. "The adjustment mechanism provides for an accelerated repayment schedule and higher interest rates if Zambia's debt carrying capacity improves from the current 'weak' classification to 'medium' classification," he said. While China has rejected writing off some of the debt altogether, bondholders could still do that, Daly added.

Persons: Hakainde, Kevin Daly, Daly, Situmbeko Musokotwane, Marc Jones, Chris Mfula, Libby George, Christina Fincher, Ed Osmond, William Maclean Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Zambian Finance, IMF, World Bank, Thomson Locations: China, Zambia, Sri Lanka, Ghana, Lusaka

☆ Analysis: Investors lament lost opportunity after unconvincing Turkish rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-23 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

REUTERS/Murad Sezer/IllustrationLONDON, June 23 (Reuters) - Foreign investors hoping for a game-changing rate hike from Turkey's newly appointed central bank chief said Thursday's disappointing move to a key rate of just 15% could keep some money on the sidelines. "They lost one perfect chance to demonstrate that they mean business," said Viktor Szabo, emerging markets investment director with Abrdn. But analysts said that after Thursday's decision, Erkan and Simsek would need to work even harder to prove the country had indeed shifted course. Already in the week to June 16, foreign investor holdings of Turkish government bonds had fallen by $16.2 million. "I don't think investors will throw in the towel just yet because I think there is still expectation there is more to come in the coming months," said Kaan Nazli, portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman.

Persons: Murad Sezer, Thursday's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Viktor Szabo, Abrdn, it's, It's, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Eric Fine, Marek Drimal, Simsek, Dan Wood, William Blair, Fitch, Erdogan, Erkan, Kaan, Neuberger Berman, Karin Strohecker, Marc Jones, Toby Chopra Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, VanEck

☆ China is poised for a 'near-term rebound,' says Abrdn
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailChina is poised for a 'near-term rebound,' says AbrdnRay Sharma-Ong of the asset management firm explains why it likes China and discusses the "signposts" it's monitoring: geopolitical risks, macroeconomic growth turnaround, policy initiatives and earnings.

Persons: Abrdn Ray Sharma, Ong Organizations: China Locations: China

☆ TRYing times: The slide and fall of the Turkish lira
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The central bank is however widely expected to get a new head in the coming days. Turkey's economy is no stranger to boom-and-bust cycles, oscillating between double-digit growth and contraction rates in recent years. 3/INFLATION PALPITATIONSA tumbling lira will fan fears over a fresh spike in inflation in the country which only last year saw it top 80%. "It's just so inevitable," Abrdn's head of local currency emerging market debt, Kieren Curtis, said referring to the lira's slump this week. He did add however that the compensation would be paid to depositors in lira rather than dollars or euros and that bill would be split between the Treasury and Central Bank.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Ulrich Leuchtmann, Hasnain Malik, Erdogan, Tellimer's Malik, Kieren Curtis, Frank Gill, Tayyip Erdogan's, Karin Strohecker, David Evans Organizations: Wall, JPMorgan, FX, Reuters Graphics Reuters, International Monetary Fund, P Global, Treasury, Central Bank, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ankara, Turkey, Commerzbank, Frankfurt, Tellimer

Refinitiv data shows foreigners sold $1.71 billion worth of mainland shares this month via Stock Connect, a key cross-border link between the mainland and Hong Kong exchanges, after selling $659 million in April. Despite outflows in February, April and May, foreigners' net purchases of mainland shares still stood at $25.05 billion for the first five months of this year, compared with net buying of about $6.36 billion worth over the whole of 2022. "Foreigners seem to have been selling because of the underwhelming near-term economic data points and, perhaps, because of the opportunities available to investors with a broader (pan-Asia or global) mandate," Pershad said. "We presume other investors have re-allocated some capital from China to those markets (and others) this year." Reporting By Patturaja Murugaboopathy and Gaurav Dogra in Bengaluru; Editing by Vidya Ranganathan & Simon Cameron-MooreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Pruksa Iamthongthong, Refinitiv, Alexander Davey, Vikas Pershad, Pershad, Patturaja Murugaboopathy, Gaurav Dogra, Vidya Ranganathan, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Stock Connect, Reuters, National Bureau of Statistics, P Global, PMI, Morningstar, Allianz All China Equity WT, HK, HSBC Asset Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, G Investments, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, China, Morningstar ,, Taiwan, Shanghai, Asia, Bengaluru

☆ We remain 'cautiously optimistic' on China's recovery, says Abrdn
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe remain 'cautiously optimistic' on China's recovery, says AbrdnPruksa Iamthongthong of the investment firm says the second half of the year "should start to look better."

Persons: Abrdn

MUMBAI, May 19 (Reuters) - Investors are looking beyond the U.S. technology sector's bounceback this year for longer-term returns, as higher interest rates and an uncertain macroeconomic picture could present further headwinds, fund managers and strategists said. "The tendency is that ... the sector that leads in one cycle doesn't tend to lead in the following cycle," Yoder told the Reuters Global Markets Forum. "We are staying away from the more interest rate-sensitive sectors such as tech," said Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income at abrdn. Anticipating an economic slowdown in the second half, more cautious and selective positioning across fixed income portfolios is a better bet, said Jonathan Duensing, head of U.S. fixed income at Amundi. "We've always felt that the tech sector in general is one where you need to be very selective," Duensing said.

☆ Analysis: Erdogan election showing cools Turkish turnaround hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

LONDON, May 15 (Reuters) - Hopes among investors of a surge in Turkish markets evaporated on Monday after long-standing President Tayyip Erdogan took a commanding position in Turkey's elections. "Hope is dead," Abrdn's head of emerging market local currency debt Kieran Curtis said of the prospects for Erdogan's main challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu and meaningful policy change. Monday's initial market reaction had seen the Turkish lira dip to 2-month low alongside more pronounced drops in banking shares and hard currency government bonds. "A continuity of policies would argue for low FX volatility," JPMorgan added, as Erdogan's economic team would look to limit the changes and FX volatility. Reuters GraphicsAdditional reporting by Libby George and Karin Strohecker; Editing by Alexander SmithOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Quotes: Fed plans broad revamp of bank oversight in wake of SVB collapse
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +11 min

The assertion in the introduction that the Fed should focus on large bank capital requirements is disconnected from the report's conclusions. AMERICAN BANK ASSOCIATION PRESIDENT AND CEO ROB NICOLS"We take any bank failure seriously, and we will review the findings and proposed policy changes in these reports carefully, including where the conclusions may differ. JONATHAN MONDILLO, HEAD OF NORTH AMERICAN FIXED INCOME AT ABRDN"We're likely to see higher capital requirements. What that means for the overall markets is that the devil is in the details: how stringent those capital requirements will be. A potential First Republic Bank failure could similarly present a risk to the long-term investment strategy of high net-worth individuals."

☆ Bank of America makes big bull call on gold, says this is the perfect time to own bullion ETFs
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The stage is set for gold to shine as the bullion makes an ideal hedge for stubborn inflation, according to Bank of America. "That rare thing, an uncorrelated anti-stagflation hedge," Jared Woodard, the firm's investment and exchange-traded funds strategist, said of gold. Bank of America said the precious metal has become particularly appealing as the opportunity cost of financial assets dips. Here are the five bullion ETFs that Bank of America is highlighting: iShares Gold Trust Micro (IAUM) SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) abrdn Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) iShares Gold Trust (IAU) SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) Out of these funds, Bank of America's top-rated ones are GLDM and IAUM. The strategist said these newer "mini" funds have lower expenses than their peers, but they have the same fundamentals backed by physically held gold bullion.

☆ The IRA isn’t good for just U.S. stocks. Here are some emerging markets names that will benefit too
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-23 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The Inflation Reduction Act does more than buoy U.S. clean energy stocks – it's also an opportunity for emerging markets firms. But the IRA also represents an opportunity for emerging markets firms. "This is a win, win, win," said Paul Desoisa, co-portfolio manager of the Global Emerging Markets strategy at Martin Currie, a specialist investment manager at Franklin Templeton. Here are some places where emerging markets firms stand to benefit. Some possible contenders include Korea's Hanwha Solutions, a multinational with a solar energy business Hanwha Qcells, abrdn's Khwaja said.

[1/2] A Confederation of British Industry (CBI) logo is seen during their annual conference in London, Britain November 9, 2015. "While the CBI was not previously aware of the most serious allegations, it is vital that they are thoroughly investigated now and we are liaising closely with the police," CBI President Brian McBride said. Virgin Media O2 criticised how the CBI had dealt with the allegations. Aviva (AV.L) and two other insurers, Phoenix Group and Zurich Insurance Group (ZURN.S), also quit on Friday along with asset manager Schroders. Accountancy firm PWC suspended activity with the CBI, as has telecoms company BT Group, while bank Santander said it was reviewing its membership.

☆ Analysis: Investors seek to break through Japan Inc's 'value trap'
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

SINGAPORE, April 20 (Reuters) - Corporate governance in Japan has suddenly become a cause celebre, rousing the world's third-largest stock market out of decades of lethargy and drawing in hordes of foreign investors. Japan's stock market has long been seen by investors as a 'value trap' where companies focus on market share, hoard cash and care little about shareholder returns. What has prompted investors globally to sit up and take notice is an endorsement from legendary billionaire investor Warren Buffett. The MSCI Japan Value index (.dMIJP0000VPUS) is up 9% since August 2020 versus a 9% drop for the MSCI Japan growth index (.dMIJP0000GPUS). "I think the value trap that was Japan is no longer."

☆ Analysis: No China, no deal: Bid to break sovereign debt logjams gets weary thumbs up
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Libgeorge Marc Jones | Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - The latest bid by the world's leading institutions and creditors to speed up debt restructurings and get bankrupt countries back on their feet has been greeted by a mix of cautious optimism and weary scepticism by veteran crisis watchers. The somewhat loose framework around sovereign restructurings has seen Beijing seek to influence the traditional rules of engagement in these processes. The Common Framework platform introduced by leading G20 nations in 2020 aimed to bring all creditors, including China, together and streamline negotiations. Anna Ashton, director of China research at Eurasia Group, said this week’s developments underscored the benefits for China to give some ground on some of its concerns. "China is a difficult partner to talk to but we need China at the table for the solution of debt problems, because otherwise we won't see any progress," Lindner said.

☆ No China, no deal: Bid to break sovereign debt logjams gets weary thumbs up
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-13 | by ( Libgeorge Marc Jones | Marc Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

☆ Gold and mining ETFs are surging as the precious metal flirts with a record high
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-07 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Over the past month, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) has pulled in more than $1 billion of new money, according to FactSet. The iShares Gold Trust (IAU) , SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) , Abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) and Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (AAAU) have pulled in more than $400 million combined. Funds comprised of gold mining stocks have also been popular, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) pulling in about $200 million. GDX YTD mountain Gold mining ETFs are rallying in 2023. The gold mining funds from Sprott ( SGDM ) and iShares ( RING ) have seen similarly strong performance.

April 6 (Reuters) - U.S. dividend funds have faced steep outflows this year after strong inflows last year as investors rush to safer money market funds and bank deposits, providing high returns without much risk. According to Refinitiv data, U.S. dividend funds witnessed an outflow of $5.6 billion in the first quarter of this year, the first in 10 quarters. On the other hand, U.S. money market funds secured a massive $391.5 billion inflow in the first quarter, the biggest in three years. "As long as the stability and income generated from money market funds remain attractive relative to stocks, the outflows may continue this year." However, some analysts said dividend funds are still the safer option as they invest in companies with solid balance sheets and healthy cash flows which are likely to be more resilient during an economic slowdown.

Several major finance companies also voluntarily reported ethnicity pay data for the period. The majority of major finance firms nonetheless made progress in narrowly closing their gender pay gaps, according to their disclosures. ETHNICITY PAY GAPSHalf of the 20 finance firms reviewed reported varying detail on ethnicity pay gaps, with some including insurer Phoenix doing so for the first time. Where pay gaps were further broken down by ethnicity, they showed the largest pay disparities were between Black and white employees. All the employers said in their pay gap reports they were taking steps to improve diversity, particularly at senior levels.

☆ If Credit Suisse was a UK bank, regulators would have taken over already, says ABRDN's Hickmore
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIf Credit Suisse was a UK bank, regulators would have taken over already, says ABRDN's HickmoreLuke Hickmore, ABRDN Investment director, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the stock sell-off in European banks and risk in the sector.

☆ Forget chips — UBS says to load up on this global sector instead
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

European equity investors should stay steer clear of semiconductor stocks and load up on banks this year, according to UBS' Head of European Equity Strategy Gerry Fowler. According to FactSet data, there were 24 banks in the Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index with a P/B ratio of less than 1. The index is accessible to investors through a number of ETFs, such as those from iShares (Ticker EXV1-DE) and Lyxor (Ticker BNK-FR). Cautious on chip stocks, pharma Fowler urged caution on semiconductor stocks — something of a hot sector this year — which he described as a "tactical decision." He noted that this year would see weak U.S. growth and a weak dollar, making pharma and household and personal products weak choices.

The S&P 500 banks index (.SPXBK) dropped 6.6% on Thursday and was set to open lower again on Friday. The crisis at SVG was feeding growing investor concerns that banks will be vulnerable to the rising cost of money. In an unusual step, Commerzbank, one of Germany's largest banks, issued a statement, playing down any threat from SVB, saying it did not see "a corresponding risk for us". "The market is treating this as a potential contagion risk," said Antoine Bouvet, senior rates strategist at ING in London. A spike in interest rates has led to a sell-off in bonds, leaving banks exposed to potential losses on the securities they hold.

☆ Most Asian equities see outflows in Feb as rate-hike jitters weigh
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-07 | by ( Gaurav Dogra | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Foreigners sold equities worth a net $2.1 billion in Thai, Indian, the Philippine and Vietnam markets, data from stock exchanges showed. The trend of money flowing from South Asia into North Asian equities continued in February due to China's plans to reopen borders. Thai equities suffered $1.28 billion worth of foreign outflows, the biggest monthly net selling by outsiders since April 2020. Meanwhile, Indian and Philippine equities also recorded $647 million and $155 million worth of foreign outflows. On the other hand, Indonesian equities received $378 million in February after seeing outflows worth $1.55 billion in the previous two months.

☆ M&G would be a tricky hop for kangaroo raider
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Neil Unmack | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

LONDON, March 2 (Reuters Breakingviews) - M&G (MNG.L) would be a tricky hop for Macquarie (MQG.AX). The $48 billion Australian financial powerhouse may bid for the $6 billion UK insurer. The appeal is likely to be in the fund management group. Macquarie’s own asset management arm accounted for over 30% of net profit in the first half of its current financial year. Follow @Unmack1 on TwitterCONTEXT NEWSAustralian banking group Macquarie is considering a bid for UK insurance and asset management group M&G, Sky News reported on March 1.

☆ UniCredit finds costly fix for faulty CEO pay
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

UniCredit shares are up 75% over the last twelve months, against 22% for the STOXX Europe 600 Banks Index. To give Orcel an incentive to beat his goals again, and to keep the pay-conscious dealmaker happy, UniCredit tweaked the package. It hiked his fixed pay to 3.25 million euros but changed the way the bonus will be allocated. If Orcel hits new and more challenging targets he will earn a bonus of 4.25 million euros, lower than last year’s payout, paid all in stock. But if he overshoots again, he could get up to 9.75 million euros.

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