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☆ Mortgage interest rates are expected to drop by the end of the year—here’s how much you could save on monthly payments
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Mike Winters | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

While mortgage rates are most closely linked to 10-year Treasury bonds, they tend to move in tandem with the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate. Consequently, a rate cut is likely to lower mortgage rates later this year. That's potentially good news for homebuyers, since interest rate cuts would likely make monthly mortgage payments a bit more affordable. Most major housing organizations expect mortgage rates to drop by the end of the year. Mortgage rate forecasts for the end of 2024 differ slightly.

Persons: Fannie Mae, Wells, Kevin McLoughlin Organizations: Federal, Traders, Mortgage, Association ., Federal Reserve Locations: Virginia

☆ A pause to the 'Trump trade': The stock market impact if Joe Biden drops out of election
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

"Should Biden leave the race, we would not immediately change our electoral odds (60% Trump vs. 40% Biden/Dem). However, we would note that the policies of a potential Harris administration would largely align with those of President Biden," Mills said. "The primary market moves on election night will come through the equity side as a result of significant regulatory policy divergences. Under a Biden win, it will be status quo in markets. With a Trump win, [stocks] will get some serious legs," Jefferies chief market strategist David Zervos said in a Friday note to clients.

Persons: Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Biden, Raymond James Washington, Ed Mills, Stocks, Trump, Harris, Mills, MAGA, TD Cowen, Chris Krueger, David Zervos Organizations: NBC, Trump, Biden, Federal, Democratic, Traders, Republican, Democratic Party, GOP, Senate, Jefferies

☆ Dollar set to eke out weekly gain as traders weigh U.S. rates, yen wobbles
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar was steady and poised to snap a two-week losing run on Friday as U.S. labour and manufacturing data kept traders pondering on when and by how much the Federal Reserve would cut rates this year. The dollar was steady and poised to snap a two-week losing run on Friday as U.S. labor and manufacturing data kept traders pondering on when and by how much the Federal Reserve would cut rates this year. The Federal Reserve is scheduled to meet at the end of July where markets anticipate a very low chance of the central bank cutting rates. Ryan Brandham, head of global capital markets for North America at Validus Risk Management, said the U.S. economy is getting closer to where a rate cut may be appropriate. In other currencies, the Australian dollar eased 0.11% to $0.66985, while the New Zealand dollar was 0.22% lower at $0.6032.

Persons: Ryan Brandham, Mary Daly, Daly, recouping, Sterling Organizations: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Traders, U.S, Federal, North America, Validus Risk, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Dallas Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of England, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Japan, U.S, Britain

☆ Wells Fargo says it's time to buy banks as a Trump trade
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-18 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Banks are headed for a significant period of outperformance in the near term as the "Trump Trade" heats up, according to Wells Fargo. The analyst replaced health care with banks in the firm's recommended sector barbell under the belief the group will outperform under an improved regulatory environment. Harvey added that banks' macroeconomic backdrop is already improving with the Treasury curve beginning to steepen, the pace of mergers and acquisitions accelerating, and consumer credit in line with expectations. Bank stocks are trading at a "significant discount," Harvey noted. That kind of move implies roughly 15% of outperformance over the next one to three months.

Persons: Banks, Saturday's, Donald Trump, Morgan Stanley, Wells, Christopher Harvey, Harvey Organizations: Trump, Republican, Fund, Traders, Bank of America, Citigroup Locations: Wells Fargo

☆ U.K. Inflation Steady as Economists Puzzle Over ‘Taylor Swift Effects’
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-17 | by ( Eshe Nelson | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Inflation in Britain held steady in June as the Bank of England inches toward its first interest rate cut in years and economists pondered whether a global pop star helped keep services prices higher. Food inflation also slowed, with prices rising just 1.5 percent compared with a year ago. But the June inflation data came in slightly higher than expected. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, was expected to dip but remained at 3.5 percent in June. Traders reduced their bets on an August rate cut, giving it about a 35 percent chance.

Organizations: Bank of England, National Statistics, Traders Locations: Britain

☆ IMF sees ‘bumps’ in path to lower inflation
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The International Monetary Fund warned Tuesday that upside risks to inflation have increased, calling into question the prospect of multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF said "the momentum on global disinflation is slowing, signaling bumps along the path." The rise in sequential inflation in the U.S. earlier in 2024 has put it behind other major economies in the quantitative easing path, the report said. However, IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" on Tuesday that one rate cut from the Fed is most appropriate this year, highlighting still-stubborn services and wage inflation as complications to the path to lower inflation. Despite the encouraging CPI report, Gourinchas stated the uptick in inflation earlier in the year indicates that the path toward lower inflation and rate cuts "could take a little bit longer than maybe the markets are expecting."

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, CNBC's, Gourinchas Organizations: Monetary Fund, Traders, U.S . Labor Department Locations: U.S

☆ Stock futures rise slightly following a record-setting session for the Dow: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader works on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 3, 2024. U.S. stock futures were slightly higher on Monday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high. The market also continued its rotation into small-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 rising 1.8% during Monday's session. The Russell 2000 posted a 6% gain last week. Lee said that small-cap stocks look comparatively more oversold, with valuations even lower this time around.

Persons: Donald Trump, Russell, Tom Lee, Lee, Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth, Charles Schwab Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Dow, Republican, GOP, Fundstrat Global Advisors, Bank of America Locations: New York City, U.S

☆ Buy these stocks if Trump and GOP win big in November, says Wolfe Research
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Several stocks could get a boost if former President Donald Trump wins the presidency and the GOP secures control of Congress, the odds of which have increased since the weekend, according to Wolfe Research. Here is a selection of stocks Wolfe expects to reap the benefits of a Trump reelection: Trump Media & Technology Group shares could benefit from a Trump win — and traders have already been piling into the stock since Saturday's event. Trading in Trump Media, which is the parent of social media platform Truth Social, has been volatile in recent months. The stock plunged about 50% in the three weeks after Trump was convicted on 34 felony counts on May 30. Other stocks Wolfe Research expects to benefit from a Trump win include UnitedHealth Group , Halliburton and Emerson Electric .

Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Chris Senyek, Wolfe, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, bitcoin Organizations: GOP, Wolfe Research, Investors, Trump, Republican National Convention, Republican, Federal Reserve, Trump Media & Technology Group, Trump Media, White House, Evercore, Citigroup, UnitedHealth, Halliburton, Emerson Electric Locations: Pennsylvania, Milwaukee, Technology

☆ Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on interest rate policy and the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-15 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to address the Economic Club of Washington, D.C., on Monday as traders look for hints about when the central bank will cut interest rates. Powell will partake in a discussion with David Rubenstein, chairman of the Economic Club and co-founder of The Carlyle Group. These will be Powell's first remarks since Thursday's consumer price index report, which showed that prices went down in June on a monthly basis. He also said the central bank did not need to wait for inflation to actually reach its 2% target before cutting rates. The Federal Reserve has a policy meeting at the end of July, but a rate cut is seen unlikely at that time.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, David Rubenstein Organizations: Economic, of Washington, of Washington , D.C, Economic Club, The, Group, Capitol, Fed, Federal, Traders Locations: of Washington ,

☆ Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in June, slightly hotter than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

A measure of wholesale prices rose more than expected in June as Wall Street assesses when the Federal Reserve will feel comfortable cutting interest rates. The producer price index rose 0.2% last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. The PPI is a gauge of prices that producers can get for their goods and services in the open market. Friday's report comes shortly after the June consumer price index came in cooler than expected on Thursday. The Fed's preferred inflation reading is the personal consumption expenditure price index.

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Port, Federal, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, Traders Locations: Port of Los Angeles, San Pedro , California

☆ The S&P 500 hasn't been this overbought since late 2023 — signaling trouble ahead
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Lisa Kailai Han | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The S & P 500's 14-day relative strength index, or RSI, closed above 81 on Wednesday. This coincided with the S & P 500 closing above 5,600 for the first time. The S & P 500 has closed with an RSI above 81 only 12 other times in the past 40 years, Cantor head of equity derivatives Eric Johnston pointed out. After entering such overbought conditions, the S & P 500 has averaged a decline of 2.21% in the following 15 days, Johnston's data shows. Traders took some profits off the table on Thursday, with the S & P 500 losing 0.9%, pulling back from the all-time highs reached in the previous session.

Persons: Cantor Fitzgerald, Cantor, Eric Johnston Organizations: Traders

☆ Stock futures are flat Thursday after S&P 500 suffers worst day since April: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-11 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. stock futures were little changed Thursday night after the S&P 500 had its worst session since April, dragged lower by investors' rotation out of mega-cap tech stocks. S&P 500 futures were marginally higher. Futures linked to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were up by around 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures traded near the flatline. Investors sold their Big Tech winners, pushing Nvidia lower by 5.6% and leading to a 4.1% decline for Meta Platforms . The S&P 500 is up 0.3% through Thursday's close, while the Nasdaq is down nearly 0.4%.

Persons: Dow, Russell, Warren, We've, Wells Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Investors, Big Tech, Meta, Traders, Federal, 3Fourteen, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, University of Michigan Locations: Thursday's, Wells Fargo

☆ U.S. oil prices fall for third straight day as oil infrastructure recovers from Tropical Storm Beryl
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

U.S. crude oil prices fell for the third straight session on Tuesday, as Gulf Coast oil infrastructure appears to have avoided any substantial damage from Tropical Storm Beryl. On Monday, Beryl made landfall in Matagorda, Texas, as a Category 1 hurricane but later weakened into a tropical storm. Beryl has moved inland as a tropical depression and is now north of Shreveport, Louisiana, according to the National Hurricane Center. U.S. oil inventories fell by 12.2 million barrels for the week ended June 28, and gasoline stocks declined by 2.2 million barrels in a potential bullish sign for the market. Macquarie, however, is forecasting that oil inventories dropped by 1.2 million barrels last week, with the total balance "only modestly tighter than we had anticipated," according to a Monday note.

Persons: Beryl, John Evans, Shell, Evans Organizations: National Hurricane Center, Corpus Christi, Colorado State University, Traders Locations: Gulf, Matagorda , Texas, Shreveport , Louisiana, Corpus, Houston, Gulf of Mexico, Texas, U.S

☆ Asia markets rise after S&P 500, Nasdaq close at all-time highs; Aussie consumer confidence dips
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-09 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Asia-Pacific markets opened higher on Tuesday, tracking gains on Wall Street that saw the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closing at record highs overnight. Hyundai on the other hand reached a tentative wage agreement with its labor union, averting a strike. Hyundai shares slid 1.59%. Last week, the European Union had hiked tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China. Traders in Asia will also watch out for Australia's business confidence data due later in the day.

Persons: Kospi, Mehmet Fatih Kacir, Australia's Organizations: Nasdaq, Nikkei, Samsung Electronics, Hyundai, European Union, Traders Locations: Asia, Pacific, Turkey, China

☆ Gold eases from May peak on profit taking
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A view of ingots of 99.99 percent pure gold, which are placed in a workroom, at Novosibirsk Refining Plant, Russia's leading gold refining and bar manufacturing plant, in Novosibirsk, Russia on Sept. 15, 2023. Spot gold fell 0.4% at $2,382.17 per ounce as of 0346 GMT, after rising to its highest level since May 22 on Friday. Traders are also pricing in a rising chance of a second rate cut in December. Elsewhere, top consumer China's central bank refrained from gold purchases to its reserves for a second consecutive month in June. "China may have paused their gold purchases, but it remains in demand overall.

Persons: We're, Kyle Rodda, CME's, Jerome Powell's, Powell, Matt Simpson, bullish, Simpson Organizations: Novosibirsk Refining Plant, Capital.com, Federal, Fed Locations: Novosibirsk, Russia, China

☆ Wall Street thinks the US economy is getting back to normal. The election could change that
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-08 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +10 min

New York CNN —New data shows weakening in the US economy – Friday’s jobs report showed that unemployment ticked up to 4.1% in June. Inflation is easing, and so is economic growth – that combination means interest rate cuts could be on their way. Before the Bell spoke with Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, about investors, the economy and political landscape. We recognize that to have a thesis on the economy is to have a thesis on the consumer. The global market value for adult diapers was pegged at $12.8 billion in 2023, according to market research provider Euromonitor International.

Persons: Joe Biden, Bell, Michael Reynolds, we’ve, there’s, That’s, We’ve, Fumio Kishida, Read, Nathaniel Meyersohn Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal, DC, Traders, Fed, Federal Reserve, United Nations, UN, Euromonitor, Oji Holdings, Flags Locations: New York, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, United States

☆ Stock futures open lower as investors await inflation data, earnings this week: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-07 | by ( Pia Singh | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures edged lower Sunday night as investors await key inflation data for further clues on the longevity of this year's market rally. S&P futures were down more than 0.1%, while futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 51 points, or 0.1%. Producer price index data will be released Friday. Last week, labor data reflected a slightly cooling labor market, spurring expectations of a rate cut. A slew of major banks, including Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase , will kick off second-quarter earnings season this week.

Persons: Greg Wilensky, Janus Henderson, JPMorgan Chase, Stocks, Dow Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal, Traders, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Citigroup, JPMorgan, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Nvidia Locations: U.S

☆ The America trade: These stocks highly exposed to the U.S. are primed to outperform
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-03 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

A handful of stocks partial to the U.S. market could see strong gains ahead. MGM YTD mountain MGM Resorts stock. Delta Airlines , which also made the cut, has become the most profitable U.S. airline thanks to its reputation as a luxury option. DAL YTD mountain Delta Airlines stock. Other stocks on the list include Axon Enterprise , which makes Taser stun guns and police body cameras, and ConocoPhillips .

Persons: Hope, BTIG, Clark Lampen, Ed Bastian, DAL, John F Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Traders, Nvidia, Federal Reserve, CNBC Pro, U.S, MGM Resorts, MGM, Delta Airlines, Delta, CNBC, Kennedy International Airport, United Airlines, ConocoPhillips Locations: U.S, Las Vegas, Vegas, China, Atlanta

☆ Stock market today: Indexes rise and bond yields soar as 2nd half of the year kicks off
▼ + stars: | 2024-07-01 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 13 basis points to 4.479%. AdvertisementUS stocks ended higher on Monday to start the second half of the year, rising even as bond yields soared during the session. Meanwhile, shifting outlooks on the US election have added uncertainty to the bond market, and yields on the 10-year Treasury surgedon Monday. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 12 basis points to 4.469%. Among individual stock movers on Monday, Chewy whiplashed after meme-trading legend Keith Gill disclosed a $245 million stake in the company.

Persons: —, Stocks, surgedon, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Goldman Sachs, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Chewy, Keith Gill Organizations: Treasury, Service, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Trump, Traders, Federal Locations: France

☆ Stock futures are little changed as investors await inflation data with end of second quarter looming: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-27 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures are near flat Thursday night as traders await closely followed inflation data. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures slipped 36 points, or 0.1%. S&P 500 futures ticked up 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.2%. In after-hours action, Nike shares slipped more than 12% after the athletic retailer cut its full-year guidance. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the core PCE is forecast to come in 0.1% higher on the month and 2.6% on an annualized basis.

Persons: Foot Locker Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Nike, PCE, Dow, Federal, Fed

☆ 2-year Treasury yield inches higher as investors await key data
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-25 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

ET, the 10-year Treasury yield was down by less than one basis point to 4.2457%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was last at 4.7466% after rising by more than one basis point. U.S. Treasury yields were little changed on Tuesday as investors looked ahead to key economic data slated for the week, including fresh inflation insights. Investors looked ahead to several economic data points due this week as well as comments from Federal Reserve officials. While chances of a summer rate cut appear low, investors are looking for hints about whether the Fed may move to cut rates in September.

Persons: Mary Daly, Daly Organizations: Treasury, Federal Reserve, Traders, San Francisco Federal Locations: U.S

Moreover, the partnership will enable Rivian to cut operating costs by leveraging volumes of supplies including chips and components, he said. It will also help Rivian, known for its flagship R1S SUVs and R1T pickups, turn cashflow positive. Volkswagen will immediately invest $1 billion in Rivian through a note that will convert to stock on Dec. 1, subject to regulatory approvals. The German automaker will also invest $2 billion in Rivian stock - $1 billion each in 2025 and 2026 - subject to the startup hitting certain milestones, and provide a $1 billion loan in 2026. Rivian stock has halved so far this year.

Persons: Stephane Mahe, RJ Scaringe, Vitaly Golomb, Herbert Diess, Diess, Rivian, Scaringe, Sam Fiorani, Mavka Capital's Golomb, VW's Cariad, Abhirup Roy, Ben Klayman, Noel Randewich, Christina Amann, Harshita Varghese, Sayantani Ghosh, Rod Nickel, Matthew Lewis, Leslie Adler Organizations: Volkswagen, REUTERS, Reuters, JV, Audi, Porsche, Lamborghini, Bentley, Volkswagen Group, Mavka, VW, AutoForecast Solutions, Traders, S3 Partners, Rivian, Thomson Locations: Reze, Nantes, France, Europe, Asia, North America, U.S, German, South Carolina, San Francisco, Detroit, Oakland , California, Berlin, Bengaluru

☆ David Rubenstein says Fed not likely to cut rates before the election
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-24 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Don't expect rate cuts from the Federal Reserve before the November election, according to David Rubenstein. "Generally the Fed wants to stay out of politics," the co-founder and co-chairman of The Carlyle Group told CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin on " Squawk Box " Monday. "I've always said that I think the Fed is not likely to cut rates before the election because it would just cause too much political turmoil." Rubenstein noted that the Fed likely recognizes it would be "heavily criticized" by former President Donald Trump if it starts cutting ahead of the election. "I suspect the market is probably more right than wrong when it says the rate cuts are likely to come after the election," he said.

Persons: David Rubenstein, CNBC's Andrew Ross Sorkin, I've, Rubenstein, Donald Trump, He's Organizations: Federal Reserve, The Carlyle Group, Traders, The Kennedy Center, Democrat

☆ European markets head for mixed open as UK awaits Bank of England's rate decision
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-20 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Commuters crossing a junction near the Bank of England (BOE), left, in the City of London, UK, on Wednesday, May 8, 2024. Photographer: Hollie Adams/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesLONDON — European stocks are expected to open in mixed territory Thursday, with U.K. investors looking ahead to the Bank of England's policy rate decision. The U.K.'s FTSE index is expected to open 16 points higher at 8,212, Germany's DAX up 21 points at 18,087, France's CAC 40 up 3 points at 7,568 and Italy's FTSE MIB up 10 points at 33,192, according to IG. U.K. traders will be focused on the Bank of England's rate decision Thursday, although the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady at a 16-year high of 5.25%, with the majority of economists polled by Reuters forecasting a cut in August after the country's July 4 election. Data released Wednesday showed U.K. inflation rose by an annual 2.0% in May, hitting the BoE's inflation target.

Persons: BOE, Andrew Bailey, Hollie Adams, Germany's DAX Organizations: Bank of England, City of, Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of, CAC, IG, Reuters Locations: City, City of London

☆ Stock market today: Indexes dip as traders take a breather after record-setting week
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

AdvertisementUS stocks edged lower Monday morning as traders took a moment to catch their breath after stocks set a series of records last week. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq set four straight record highs last week and closed higher for the seventh week of the last eight. Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin boosted his year-end S&P 500 price target to 5,600, representing potential upside of about 3% from current levels. Kostin had previously had a 5,200 year-end price target for the S&P 500. AdvertisementMeawnwhile, Evercore ISI boosted its S&P 500 year-end price target to a street-high 6,000.

Persons: Neel Kashkari nodded, —, Goldman Sachs, David Kostin, Kostin, Neel Kashkari, Kashkari Organizations: Traders, Wall Street, Service, Nasdaq, Wall, ISI, Federal, CBS

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