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Two retail experts on warning signals around consumer spending
  + stars: | 2024-07-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailTwo retail experts on warning signals around consumer spendingJessica Ramirez, Senior Research Analyst at Jane Hali & Associates, and Scott Mushkin, Founder and CEO of R5 Capital, discuss warning signals around the U.S. consumer.
Persons: Jessica Ramirez, Jane Hali, Scott Mushkin Organizations: Associates, R5
I feel like the stock has gone too far, too fast, however, and provide an options trade that wins if the shares pull back. Ross (ROST) has benefited significantly from this trend, with its stock rising by 20% over the past two-and-a-half months. Support and Resistance: Using basic support and resistance concepts, we can identify short-term resistance around the 150 level. With ROST trading around $148.08, my plan is to buy an at-the-money (ATM) put spread. Regardless of ROST's current trading price, my long strike will be set above the current price, and the short strike will be positioned below it.
Persons: ROST, Nishant Pant Organizations: Ross Stores, RSI, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL
Skyscrapers in the La Defense business and financial district in Paris, France, on Monday, June 3, 2024. LONDON — European stocks are set to nudge higher at Friday's open, defying a broader global selloff, with fresh inflation data set to land. Reaction to the historic French and U.K. elections dominated the start of the week, but attention has moved to a flurry of inflation data. On Thursday, the U.S. consumer price index declined more than expected to 3% annually, down from 3.3% in May. The data will be followed up by the U.S. producer price index Friday, while German, French and Italian inflation readings will also be released.
Persons: Germany's DAX, Jerome Powell Organizations: La Defense, LONDON, MIB, CAC, Federal Locations: Paris, France, U.S
Oil rises on cooling U.S. inflation but heads for weekly dip
  + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Brent crude futures rose 33 cents, or 0.4%, to $85.73 a barrel by 0300 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 46 cents, or 0.6%, to $83.08 a barrel. Indications of strong summer fuel demand in the U.S. also kept prices buoyed. Jet fuel demand on a four-week average basis was at its strongest since January 2020. The strong fuel demand encouraged U.S. refiners to ramp up activity and draw from crude oil stockpiles.
Persons: Brent, stoking, Jerome Powell, Jun Rong, Emril Jamil Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, Federal Reserve, Fed, IG, Jet, Gulf Locations: United States, U.S
Wells Fargo Why we own it : We bought Wells Fargo as a turnaround story under CEO Charlie Scharf. We are more excited by the outperformance of non-interest income than we are disappointed with the miss on net interest income. However, the team added, many of the factors driving net interest income are uncertain heading into the second half of the year. We don't like to see guidance misses, but bank interest income estimates depend on interest rates, which Wells Fargo has no real control over. Non-interest income increased 12% thanks to higher asset-based fees driven by an increase in market valuations.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Wells, Charlie Scharf, He's, Scharf, Wells Fargo's, , It's, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Wells, Bank of America, Citigroup, Management, Silicon Valley Bank, Consumer, Auto, Corporate, Wealth, CNBC, Getty Locations: Wells Fargo, Wells, NII, Silicon
Volatile yen keeps markets on edge as intervention risks swirl
  + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
A sheet of newly-designed Japanese 10,000 yen banknotes at the National Printing Bureau Tokyo plant in Tokyo, Japan, on Wednesday, June 28, 2023. The Japanese currency swung between gains and losses in early trading before trading slightly weaker. It spiked nearly 3% to as high as 157.40 immediately after the consumer inflation report on Thursday. "Currency interventions should certainty be rare in a floating rate market, but we'll need to respond appropriately to excessive volatility or disorderly moves," Kanda said. Tokyo intervened at the end of April and in early May, spending roughly 9.8 trillion yen ($61.55 billion) to support the currency.
Persons: Masato Kanda, Kanda, It's, Siong Sim, Charu Chanana, Matt Simpson, Menon, Donald Trump, Sterling Organizations: National Printing Bureau, Asahi, Nikkei, Bank of Singapore, U.S, CPI, Saxo, Federal Reserve, City, Traders, Presidential, Trump Locations: National Printing Bureau Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan, U.S
Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Investors cheered the broadening of a 2024 stock-market rally that has been largely concentrated with mega-cap tech names associated with the AI trade. Behind the rally in encouraging data that's paving the way for a rate cut in September. Consumer prices rose less than expected last month, while wholesale inflation was hotter, though only slightly and not enough to derail a coming rate cut, market pros said Friday. The rate-sensitive two-year Treasury note has dropped by about 14 basis points in a week and the 10-year bond is down over eight basis points in that time.
Persons: Dow, Russell, , Stocks Organizations: Service, Dow Jones, Investors, Reserve, Nvidia Locations: Here's
Gold eases, but set for weekly gain on Fed rate cut bets
  + stars: | 2024-07-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Gold prices edged lower on Friday, but were headed for a third straight week of gains as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted hopes of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. Gold prices edged lower on Friday, but were headed for a third straight week of gains as cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data boosted hopes of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September. "Inflation outlook and interest rate picture have moved in favor of gold this week. As we move closer to a lower interest rate environment, conditions could be ripe for gold to set new record highs before the year is out," said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Persons: Tim Waterer, KCM, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, Waterer Organizations: Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed Bank, Chicago Fed Bank Locations: U.S
Certainly lower interest rates are a huge help, particularly for small-cap companies that are generally more sensitive to interest rate changes. There must be a belief that earnings will broaden out beyond a small group of megacap tech stocks. The root source of the long tech rally is the superior earnings growth of technology. Two questions follow: with the massive rise in tech prices, is most or all of that earnings growth now priced in, and what are the prospects for earnings growth in other sectors? The problem is identifying where this additional earnings growth is coming from, and how robust it might be.
Persons: it's, Supriya Menon, America's Savita Subramanian, Bryan Spillane, Subramanian Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Wellington Management, Bloomberg, Bank, America's Locations: cyclicals
Every weekday the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer holds a "Morning Meeting" livestream at 10:20 a.m. "This CPI is really in control today," Jim Cramer said. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Morgan Stanley, Stanley Black, Decker, Morgan, toolmaker Stanley, Wells, Jim Cramer's, Jim Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Big Tech, Federal Reserve, Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Street Locations: NII
They also generally like to examine "core" inflation readings. The monthly core CPI reading was 0.1% in June, the smallest increase in about three years, since August 2021. Shelter inflation has moderated much slower than expected, one of the big reasons inflation hasn't yet fallen back to target, economists said. There were encouraging signals in the latest CPI report: Monthly shelter inflation dropped to 0.2% after being stuck at 0.4% for four consecutive months. Services inflation is the trouble spotInflation for physical goods spiked as the U.S. economy reopened in 2021.
Persons: David Paul Morris, Mark Zandi, Zandi, Sarah House, Aubrey George, George, Joe Seydl, Olivia Cross Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, U.S . Labor Department, Moody's, Wells, Wells Fargo Economics, U.S . Federal Reserve, CPI, Housing, of Labor Statistics, Morgan Private Bank, Capital Economics, BLS Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, North America
It also gave investors the green light to rotate out of this year's tech winners and into rate-sensitive stocks. In other words, we're right back to the market expecting as many as three cuts by the end of the year. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
Persons: Jim Cramer, toolmaker Stanley Black, Decker, Jim, Price, That's, We've, we've, Jim Cramer's, Eric Thayer Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC, PPI, Walmart, Costco, PepsiCo, CPI, U.S, Nasdaq, Jim Cramer's Charitable, Aldi, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: Alhambra , California
Dave Sekera, chief US market strategist at Morningstar, says that he’s watching for insights on banks’ delinquency rates. Consumers have increasingly fallen behind on or missed payments in recent months as they get squeezed by high interest rates. But banks could see higher losses compared to 2023 if the economy were to experience a downturn, the Fed warned. Investors are wagering that the central bank will begin easing rates as soon as September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “The worst outcome for all of us is what you call stagflation: higher rates and recession,” Dimon said in an interview with CNBC.
Persons: Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Dave Sekera, Stocks, JPMorgan Chase, Jamie Dimon, Dimon, Matt Egan, it’s, , Joe Brusuelas, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, , Jerome Powell, Erika Tulfo, “ It’s, Neil Saunders, Abrigo, Gen Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, United, United States ’, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morningstar, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, JPMorgan, CNBC, Federal, RSM, , Moody’s, CNN, GlobalData, Apple Locations: New York, United States, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, China
Strong consumer demand has helped the U.S. economy weather the Federal Reserve's rate hikes, avoiding a hard landing where growth and employment turn lower. The high-end consumer Inui estimates the net worth of high-end consumers is actually accelerating to a high-single-digit rate. "As a result, discount retailers are facing high shrinkage, restaurants are becoming increasingly promotional to boost traffic and retailers with strong value propositions are gaining share." HSBC called McDonald's one of the stocks that offers "a strong value proposition" to consumers tightening their belts. Another retailer HSBC named was Target , which has an "expect more, pay less" strategy emphasizing private labels to boost sales.
Persons: HSBC's, Nicole Inui, Hilton, Marriott, Inui, Innui, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: HSBC, Viking Holdings, Worldwide Holdings, Marriott International, Royal, Motors Locations: U.S, Americas, Royal Caribbean
For close to a century, putting your savings into a federally insured bank has been a sure thing: If the institution fails, up to $250,000 of your money will be protected. The promise of bank insurance — a tenet of U.S. consumer protection since the Great Depression — is now being tested by a crisis swirling around online-only lenders with hundreds of millions of dollars of deposits between them. Most depositors have little clue where their money has gone, and whether they will get any of it back. It operated banking software for fast-growing online lenders with names like Juno, Yieldstreet and Yotta. Their slick websites advertise insurance from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, the U.S. agency that pledges to pay back lost funds.
Persons: you’ve Organizations: Synapse Technology, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, U.S . Locations: U.S
Asia-Pacific markets opened mixed on Monday as investors awaited key economic data from the U.S. and China later this week, while election results in France overnight signaled a hung parliament. France's left-wing New Popular Front coalition on Sunday unexpectedly thwarted a far-right advance, clinching the largest number of seats but falling short of an absolute majority in a parliamentary run-off vote. Investors await the U.S. consumer price index reading, due Thursday stateside, to assess the Federal Reserve's interest rate path, while China's inflation figures on Wednesday will signal the state of the country's economic recovery. Central bank decisions from South Korea, New Zealand and Malaysia will also be announced this week, although no changes are expected, according to a Reuters poll of economists.
Persons: France's Organizations: Popular Front, Sunday Locations: Asia, Pacific, U.S, China, France, Central, South Korea, New Zealand, Malaysia
Though CIO Michael Landsberg of Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management says the conditions don't justify a cut, he says there might be one. "I think if Chairman Powell had not said, we're gonna get a rate cut, we wouldn't be having these discussions because earnings growth has been really strong. Against that backdrop, Landsberg says, investors should focus on companies generating strong earnings growth. "The major indices are continuing to rally based on strong earnings growth. Earnings growth is the name of the game for this stock market right now," he said in additional notes to CNBC.
Persons: Michael Landsberg, Landsberg Bennett, Powell, we're, CNBC's, he's, Landsberg, They've, Stryker Organizations: U.S . Federal, Wealth Management, Fed, West Texas, CNBC, Trade Locations: Landsberg, China, U.S
New York CNN —New data shows weakening in the US economy – Friday’s jobs report showed that unemployment ticked up to 4.1% in June. Inflation is easing, and so is economic growth – that combination means interest rate cuts could be on their way. Before the Bell spoke with Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, about investors, the economy and political landscape. We recognize that to have a thesis on the economy is to have a thesis on the consumer. The global market value for adult diapers was pegged at $12.8 billion in 2023, according to market research provider Euromonitor International.
Persons: Joe Biden, Bell, Michael Reynolds, we’ve, there’s, That’s, We’ve, Fumio Kishida, Read, Nathaniel Meyersohn Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal, DC, Traders, Fed, Federal Reserve, United Nations, UN, Euromonitor, Oji Holdings, Flags Locations: New York, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, United States
And at some Chipotle locations, customers filmed workers to try to make sure they didn't skimp on their burrito bowls. The three joined a growing list of consumer brands contending with customers' deep frustration over high prices — and wariness that prices will only rise more. Walmart, on the other hand, said the new price tags will cut a tedious task from store workers' to-do lists. They eliminate the need for store workers to swap out traditional paper tags. Shoppers at a Walmart store in Secaucus, New Jersey, US, on Tuesday, March 5, 2024.
Persons: Wendy's, Jean, Pierre Dubé, David Chavern, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Kevin Lamarque, hasn't, Dianna Campbell, she's, Campbell isn't, Biden, skimping, Sen, Bob Casey, Andrea Foote, Tricia Moriarty, it's, Jim Cramer, CNBC's, Brian Niccol, Chipotle, We've, Wells, Zachary Fadem, Brandon Bell, It's, Kirk Tanner, Yuki Iwamura, Cristina Rodrigues, Gabby Jones Organizations: Walmart, University of Chicago Booth School of Business, Consumers, U.S . Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Brands Association, Procter, Gamble, Pew Research, Pew, Reuters Shrinkflation, Federal Reserve, Customers, Gatorade, PepsiCo, CNBC, Chipotle, New York, Mexican Grill, Getty, American Farm Bureau Federation, Bloomberg, University of Chicago Locations: U.S, Goffstown , New Hampshire, Manhattan, New York City, Mexican, Austin , Texas, Queens, New York, Europe, Secaucus , New Jersey, US
Ridvan_celik | E+ | Getty ImagesEmployment scams surged last year, as criminals leveraged artificial intelligence to steal money and personal information from unsuspecting job seekers, experts said. Consumer reports of job scams jumped 118% in 2023 from the prior year, according to a recent report by the Identity Theft Resource Center. How job scams can rip you offCon artists will "push you for money" during the hiring process, the FTC said. Job seekers should not expect to have to hand over personal information until after they've received and accepted a job offer, Velasquez said. How to protect yourself from job scams
Persons: ITRC, Eva Velasquez, Velasquez, Con, Robert Rodriguez, they've Organizations: Getty, Theft Resource Center, Social, Federal Trade Commission, FTC, Google, Craigslist, Facebook, Finance, New York
Washington CNN —A vast swath of the US economy is showing signs of weakness as unemployment rises to its highest point in more than two years. “When you think of services, a lot of it is driven by the consumer, and consumers are key to where the US economy goes,” James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, told CNN. Consumer spending, which makes up about 70% of the US economy, has already moderated over the past few months, government statistics show, and retailers themselves have said they’ve noticed shoppers across the income spectrum change their purchasing behavior. The bottom 60% of households by income accounted for a larger proportion of spending on health care services. These firms have added 168,000 jobs a month, on average, from April through June, according to fresh Labor Department data released Friday.
Persons: , ” James Knightley, “ We’re, Knightley, Scott Hamilton, Gallagher, It’s, Tesla, China’s Geely, Laura He, Elon, Jerome Powell, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, Austan Goolsbee, Raphael Bostic Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN, Institute, Supply, ING, CNN, Commerce, Service, Labor Department, EV, Volvo, SAIC, Elon Musk’s, Business, Committee, Fed, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Financial Services, Chicago Fed, Pepsico, Delta Air Lines, ConAgra Brands, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, The, New York Mellon, The University of Michigan Locations: Washington, United States, California, Jiangsu, China, Shanghai, Wells Fargo
Three of the four big money center banks report this coming Friday, including Club name Wells Fargo . Economic data : The June consumer price index (CPI) is out on Thursday morning, and the June producer price index (PPI) is out on Friday morning. Earnings season : Within the portfolio, net interest income (NII) guidance is going to be a key watch item when Wells Fargo reports its quarter this coming Friday. However, other factors like muted loan demand have prevented Wells Fargo from raising its outlook this year. Wells Fargo – and our other bank name Morgan Stanely – both passed, indicating they have strong capital positions with excess money to return to shareholders.
Persons: May's, You'll, Wells, Michael Santomassimo, Morgan Stanley, We're, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanely –, JPMorgan Chase, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Beata Zawrzel Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Apple, Broadcom, Club, Meta, Energy, Constellation Brands, Corona, Modelo, Federal Reserve, Manufacturing, PMI, Fed, Wells, PPI, CPI, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, DAL, Conagra Brands, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, U.S, New York Stock Exchange, Nurphoto, Getty Locations: Wells Fargo, FactSet, Wells, Wells Fargo –, New York, United States, America
Some key inflation readings in the week ahead could bolster the case for a September interest rate cut, as investors deliberate how long stocks can sustain their rally to record highs. After a rocky start to the year, a recently improving inflation picture has investors hopeful the Federal Reserve could soon start to lower rates. Stubborn inflation patches The June consumer price index is expected to show a slight improvement in the headline number. In May, for example, shelter inflation rose 0.4% on the month and 5.4% on the year, while other key items declined. Monday, July 8 3 p.m. Consumer Credit (May) Tuesday, July 9 6 a.m. NFIB Small Business Index (June) Wednesday, July 10 10 a.m. Wholesale Inventories final (May) Thursday, July 11 8:30 a.m. Consumer Price Index (June) 8:30 a.m.
Persons: nonfarm payrolls, Mark Malek, FactSet, there's, Ross Mayfield, Baird, Mayfield, David Kelly, CNBC's, Wells, Price, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, CPI, PPI, FactSet, University of Michigan, Asset Management, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Consumer Credit, Treasury Budget, Air Lines, Conagra, JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo, Michigan, Fastenal
Influencers have changed the ad industry. Now what?
  + stars: | 2024-07-04 | by ( Gaelle Legrand | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +9 min
Commercial playsTania Bryer: In 1994, it was considered groundbreaking – using an ad to flip gender roles on their head. They're somehow interacting with brands through the prism of influencers, and it gives them a way to talk back. Tania Bryer: A 2019 Edelman study revealed that consumers' trust in the brands they purchase from had declined, but trust in influencers was up. Tania Bryer: And Chawawa says that trust also extends to the type of influencer brands work with. Tania Bryer: And while that may be convenient for brands, creator economy strategist Jamie Gutfreund says it can hurt influencers.
Persons: Tania Bryer, Munya Chawawa, Instagram, Munya, Richard Edelman, Edelman, They're, Joe Gagliese, There's, that's, it's, TikTok, Blake Chandlee, Goldman Sachs, You've, I've, copywriters, Emily, Jamie Gutfreund, influencers Organizations: YouTube, Trust, influencers Locations: influencers, Paris
Craft had her wages deposited directly into a Yotta account and used the startup's debit card to pay for all her expenses. CNBC reached out to fintech customers whose lives have been upended by the Synapse debacle. Instead of spending years and millions of dollars trying to acquire or become banks, startups got quick access to essential services they needed to offer. They account for 60% of all new fintech account openings, according to data provider Curinos. The FDIC's exact language about whether fintech customers are eligible for coverage: "The short answer is: it depends."
Persons: Natasha Craft, Craft, fintech, Adam Moelis, Sankaet Pathak, Michele Alt, Scott Sanborn, Sanborn, LendingClub, she's, Rick Davies, Taylor Stitch, " Davies, He's, he's, Davies, hasn't Organizations: FedEx, CNBC, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, Synapse, Indiana FedEx, Disney, Bank, Trust, JPMorgan Chase, Klaros, PayPal, Getty, Financial Technology Association, D.C, Block, Regulators, Federal Reserve, FDIC, Oakland, San, OCC Locations: Mishawaka , Indiana, Craft, Oakland , California, New York City, Santa Barbara , California, Maryland, Bristol , Connecticut, Seattle, Tennessee, Yotta, Boston, Washington, fintechs, Silicon, San Francisco
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