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☆ Consumers see inflation easing considerably in the next year, New York Fed survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-12 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

In addition to the brightened short-term outlook, the inflation-rate projection for three years from now edged lower to 3%, down 0.1 percentage point from the previous month. The most recent annual inflation rate as gauged by the consumer price index was 7.7% in October. The central bank's Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated that respondents see one-year inflation running at a 5.2% pace, down 0.7 percentage point from the October reading. The survey comes as Fed officials have indicated the likelihood of a 0.5 percentage point interest rate hike coming this week when policymakers conclude their two-day meeting Wednesday. Respondents to the New York Fed survey said they see gas prices rising 4.7% and food up 8.3% in the year ahead.

☆ Dollar holds firm as China's COVID-related worries weigh
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Harish Sridharan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The euro , which surged to a five-month peak of $1.0497 overnight, later reversed those gains following a rebound in the U.S. dollar. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index was marginally lower by 0.1% at 106.50, after rising 0.5% overnight. The greenback had extended gains after St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said overnight that the Fed needs to raise interest rates quite a bit further. The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hike rates by an additional 50 basis points when it meets on Dec. 13-14. The offshore yuan reversed some of its losses in the previous session and was about 0.4% higher at 7.2136 per dollar.

☆ Dollar holds firm as China's Covid-related worries weigh
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

☆ Treasury yields slip as investors assess impact of China’s Covid policy
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Sophie Kiderlin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was last down by around 4 basis points to 3.661% at 6:31 a.m. The 2-year Treasury yield was last trading at around 4.434% after dipping by more than 3 basis points. U.S. Treasury yields pulled back on Tuesday as investors closely watched Covid developments in China and digested comments from Federal Reserve officials on monetary policy plans. Investors closely followed Covid developments in China as uncertainty about the country's economic reopening has spread in recent weeks. Speaking at a virtual event hosted by the Economic Club of New York on Monday, New York Fed president John Williams said the central bank had to continue hiking rates for now.

☆ Gen Z's finances are already tanking, and we're not even in a recession yet
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Jacob Zinkula | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Credit card debt is on the rise, and Gen Z is missing payments at an increasing rate. If the US enters a recession, young Americans could be disproportionately impacted. Consequently, the personal savings rate rose to its highest level on record. That's because young Americans are among the individuals hardest hit by economic downturns. In 2020 for instance, Gen Z's unemployment rate rose from 8.0% in February 2020 to 26.9% in April, while millennials' increased from 4.0% to 14.3%.

☆ Explainer: What's the latest on Biden's U.S. student loan forgiveness?
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

On Nov. 22, Biden said he would extend the COVID-19 pandemic-era pause in student loan payments until no later than June 30, 2023. WHO IS ELIGIBLE FOR LOAN FORGIVENESS? About 26 million Americans have applied for student loan forgiveness since August, and the U.S. Department of Education has already approved requests from 16 million. U.S. borrowers hold about $1.77 trillion in student debt, according to the latest Federal Reserve figures. Biden's student loan forgiveness plan could add $300 billion to $600 billion to the federal debt, economists estimate.

☆ Treasury market liquidity crunch could derail the Federal Reserve's policy, New York Fed chief says
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-16 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Dysfunctioning US bond markets run the risk of undermining central bank monetary policy, according to John Williams. "If the Treasury market isn't functioning well, it can impede the transmission of monetary policy to the economy," he said. "Monetary policy influences the economy by affecting financial conditions, with the Treasury market at the center of it all. If the Treasury market isn't functioning well, it can impede the transmission of monetary policy to the economy." Williams' comments come as a liquidity crunch takes hold of the $24 trillion Treasury market and threatens to grind the world's most vital bond market to a halt.

☆ NY Fed: Inflation expectations jump in October on gasoline cost fears
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Central bank officials contend that where the public sees inflation in the future has a strong influence on current inflation readings. Speaking on Nov. 9, New York Fed leader John Williams said “the importance of maintaining well-anchored inflation expectations is a bedrock principle of modern central banking.” He added, “the news is mostly good — longer-run inflation expectations in the United States have remained remarkably stable at levels broadly consistent” with what the Fed wants to see on inflation over the longer run. “so far, inflation expectations seem to be holding a couple of years out, which is critical,” but he also said “the thing with inflation expectations, once they're unanchored, they're gone. Once it goes, it goes.”The rise in inflation expectations seen in the New York Fed report may be linked to change in the outlook for gasoline prices. MIXED OUTLOOK FOR PERSONAL FINANCESThe New York Fed report also found deteriorating expectations for employment, with the report noting “unemployment expectations reached the highest level since April 2020.”Households view of future finances was mixed in October.

☆ Stock market rally will be put to test in week ahead, after yields fall and tech surges
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( Patti Domm | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +10 min

This week, bond yields also came off their highs and were sharply lower, paving the way for gains in tech and growth shares. They include Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari to name a few. Hogan said that group includes Bullard, Brainard and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly. Many strategists are calling the move higher a bear market rally, and some expect it will fizzle in December while others say it could continue into the new year. Friday Earnings: JD.com, Foot Locker, Buckle 8:40 a.m. Boston Fed President Susan Collins 10:00 a.m.

Nov 4 (Reuters) - Even as global central banks rapidly tightened financial conditions this year, U.S. households, banks and businesses have so far been able to adapt, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard said as the Fed released its semiannual report on financial stability. More than half of those participating in the survey cited market liquidity and stress as a "salient risk," an issue not mentioned at all in the Fed's May financial stability report. TREASURY MARKET CONCERNS REVISITEDThe report noted deteriorating liquidity in the Treasury market, but said that overall it had functioned smoothly over the last few months. Liquidity conditions were particularly poor for older vintages of bonds - so-called "off the run" securities - and for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, the report found. The Inter-Agency Working Group on Treasury Market Surveillance - comprising officials from the Fed Board, Treasury, New York Fed, Securities and Exchange Commission and Commodity Futures Trading Commission - is expected to provide an update on its progress toward enhancing the resilience of the Treasury market, the Fed said, though it did not provide a timeline for that.

☆ Fed's Williams says still difficult to find workers in U.S. economy
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-21 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

HUDSON, N.Y., Oct 21 (Reuters) - Finding workers remains a challenge in the U.S. economy, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Friday. "In the current environment, filling jobs can be a challenge," Williams said in prepared remarks for a speech in Hudson, New York. "Many are struggling to hire people, especially at the entry level in construction, nursing, and manufacturing," he said, adding that "the skills gap is a big obstacle." Williams, who serves as the vice chair of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, did not comment on the monetary policy outlook in his prepared remarks. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Paul SimaoOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Swiss National Bank makes another large draw on Fed swap line
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-13 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Oct 13 (Reuters) - The Swiss National Bank this week drew nearly $6.3 billion from the U.S. Federal Reserve's currency swap line facility, roughly double the amount drawn a week earlier, New York Fed data released on Thursday showed. A week earlier it drew $3.1 billion at the same term and rate. They are available also to the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Bank of Canada and allow those banks to deliver dollar-funding to financial institutions in their own jurisdictions. The ECB was the only other central bank making a swap trade with the Fed this week. It drew $211.5 million, up from $206.5 million a week earlier but in the range of the ECB's typical weekly draw over the last year.

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