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Individual investors scooped up shares of single stocks and exchange-traded funds at a near-record clip in the first quarter. They appear to have learned some lessons in risk taking as well. Individuals bought a net $77.7 billion in equities and ETFs on U.S. exchanges in the first three months of the year, according to Vanda Research data, which excludes contributions to 401(k)s and other retirement accounts. That sum trails only the first quarters of 2021 and 2022, when they bought about $80 billion.
Oil slips as recession fears loom over economic data
  + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
SINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices turned lower on Monday as investors mulled over a possible May interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which could dampen economic recovery hopes, though Chinese GDP data was expected to augur well for demand growth. Both contracts notched their fourth weekly gain in a row last week, the longest such streak since mid-2022. "The oil complex continues to digest ongoing signs of a U.S. economic cool-down." Earnings from U.S. companies could also provide clues for the Fed's policy path and the dollar's trajectory. The greenback has been strengthening alongside interest rate hikes, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Oil steady as market awaits Chinese GDP data
  + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Noah Browning | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Companies Vanda Pharmaceuticals Inc FollowSINGAPORE, April 17 (Reuters) - Oil prices were steady on Monday as investors eyed Chinese economic data for signs of demand recovery in the world's second-largest oil consumer. "Crude prices have defaulted to tracking the daily mood in the broader financial markets" as fears over possible recession continue to cloud the horizon, she added. Further tightening supplies, oil exports from northern Iraq to the Turkish port of Ceyhan remain at a standstill almost three weeks after an arbitration case ruled Ankara owed Baghdad compensation for unauthorised exports. Rising costs for Middle Eastern crude supplies, which meet more than half of Asia's demand, are already squeezing refiners' margins, prompting them to secure supplies from other regions. The greenback has been strengthening alongside interest rate hikes, making dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Retail investors have pared back their stock purchases as they remain hesitant to dive back into the market after a difficult 2022, when the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 fell 31% and 19.4%, respectively. But individual investors appear to be missing out on these gains for the most part, according to Vanda. Average retail investor allocations are very concentrated and largely titled towards tech stocks. A strong earnings season, however, could could boost risk appetite for the retail investor cohort. "Better figures or convincing forward guidance from bank or tech stocks will likely lead to a boost in retail purchases."
"I am in the latter camp and still see prices moving higher from here as we go through the year." Adding to tightness in supply has been a shutdown of Iraq's northern exports. A deal was signed last week to restart the flows, but as of Thursday they hadn't resumed. Oil also drew support from a steeper-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories last week, as well as a decline in gasoline and distillate stocks, hinting at rising demand. Also coming up are monthly reports from OPEC on Thursday and the International Energy Agency on Friday, which will update oil demand and supply forecasts.
Oil steadies as tighter supply balances growth concerns
  + stars: | 2023-04-10 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Brent crude slipped 3 cents to $85.09 a barrel by 0816 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained 8 cents to $80.78. "I am in the latter camp and still see prices moving higher from here as we go through the year." Adding to tightness in supply has been a shutdown of Iraq's northern exports. Oil also drew support from a steeper-than-expected drop in U.S. crude inventories last week, as well as a decline in gasoline and distillate stocks, hinting at rising demand. In global financial markets, a U.S. inflation report to be released on Wednesday could help investors gauge the near-term trajectory for interest rates.
Companies Baker Hughes Co FollowApril 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices were roughly unchanged on Monday as investors weighed the prospect of tighter supplies from OPEC+ producers from May against concerns about weakening global growth that may dampen fuel demand. The group known as OPEC+ will be cutting mostly sour crude supplies from Middle East producers led by Saudi Arabia. Following the announcement, the world's top oil exporter raised its May crude prices to term customers in Asia and the United States. Separately, investors are watching the progress of talks between Iraq and Kurdistan to restart northern oil exports which could bring more sour crude to the global market. Sharp rate hikes have boosted the greenback, making dollar-denominated commodities such as oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies.
A plunge in the purchases of Tesla shares has underpinned the drop in individuals’ equity buying. Individual investors are losing their appetite for U.S. stocks, leaving equity markets without a dependable leg of support after a rocky first quarter. They bought beaten-down shares with a fury at the start of 2023 and chased the momentum as the S&P 500 climbed. Net purchases of U.S. equities by individuals reached a monthly record in February, according to Vanda Research data going back to 2014.
The ETF has slumped nearly 26% since March 8, when SVB's troubles became known, while the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index (.SPSIRBK) is down around 23%. Concerns over deposit flight are still swirling around some regional banks. He owns shares of large regional banks including Citizens Financial Group Inc (CFG.N), which have fallen about 22% so far this year, and US Bancorp (USB.N), which are down some 18%. Margie Patel, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, has been adding new positions in regional banks over the last few weeks, citing "value." Regional banks "need positive news that shows their deposits are holding firm or growing," said Rick Meckler, a partner at family office Cherry Lane Investments.
Oil markets steady as investors weigh banking crisis, Russia
  + stars: | 2023-03-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Oil markets are closely watching the sentiment in financial market, while oil fundamentals remain sidelined, said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. A stronger dollar makes dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies and tends to weigh on demand for oil. Despite lowering output, Russia is expected to maintain crude oil exports by cutting refinery output in April, data from industry sources and Reuters calculations showed on Friday. Exports of Russian oil products have to date been more affected than crude exports by a recent European Union embargo, with tonnes of diesel stuck on ships awaiting buyers. Analysts said Russian crude inventories have been rising since September last year, and the country would likely want to avoid further stockbuilds during refinery maintenance season from March to June.
Retail investors are buying financial stocks in unprecedented amounts after the sector's recent rout, according to Vanda Research. Banks have been pummeled in the wake of Silicon Valley Bank's collapse and concerns over Credit Suisse 's financial situation. Regional bank stocks were particularly hard hit as investors worried whether they had balance sheet issues similar to SVB. Some investors were also buying shares of First Republic Bank, PacWest Bancorp and Truist Financial . Retail investors bought nearly twice as much as the previous week's daily average, totally $1.43 billion in purchases, according to Vanda Research.
Premarket stocks: The return of the Reddit investor
  + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
What’s happening: Retail investors are pouring a record $1.5 billion per day into the stock market, according to data from Vanda Research. Brunswick has conducted its annual survey on the digital habits of institutional investors for over a decade. This year, it polled 257 institutional investors across North America, the United Kingdom, and the European Union. Retail investors amass funds, and power: Retail investors now account for half of all wealth globally, according to a recent report by Bain & Company. Fed officials have expressed concern that a tight labor market could keep upward pressure on wages and, in turn, inflation.
Retail investors are buying fewer stocks as the market stagnates under the weight of higher interest rates and stubborn inflation — a loss of a key group to keep positive momentum going. Greenlight Capital's David Einhorn told CNBC earlier this month that investors should be bearish on stocks because of rising inflation. Along with the macroeconomic woes, Vanda thinks the dented enthusiasm from the retail audience is in part because interest in Tesla shares is waning. Tesla hosted an investors day to start the month that largely disappointed investors because of a lack of details about its future plans, including a possible cheaper vehicle. TSLA 1M mountain Tesla shares, 1 month Tesla shares are off 12% this month.
Brent crude futures were trading down 60 cents, or 0.7%, at $85.23 a barrel by 1520 GMT. "Crude remains in a tug-of-war between optimism over Chinese reopening and nervousness over a hawkish Fed hurting the U.S. economy," said Vandana Hari, founder of oil market analysis provider Vanda Insights. China's closely watched growth outlook, announced on Sunday, was lower than last year's 5.5% target for gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Policy sources had told Reuters the target could be set as high as 6% for 2023. At the same time, oil prices are likely to be affected by increases to interest rates across the world as global central banks tighten policy over fears of rising inflation.
Individual investors can’t get enough of Tesla Inc. In recent weeks, they have scooped up shares of Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker at a frenzied pace, setting repeated records for one-day purchases. Already in 2023, they have spent a net $13.6 billion on Tesla shares, approaching the record sum of nearly $17 billion for all of last year, according to Vanda Research.
The presentation did, however, lay out broad plans aimed at making Tesla the largest car company in the world. The announcements were tepid enough that strategists at Vanda Research wrote in a note to clients that this month could see a sell-off for Tesla stock. That said, Zacks Investment Research forecasts 30% upside for Tesla, and that climb could happen in 2023. While Tesla has long been touted as innovative and futuristic over the last decade, Bespoke Investment Group concluded that the company is now actually a normal, boring car maker. The stock market is getting the jitters with a key bearish signal flashing red again.
But they’re also bowing to pressure from retail investors to be more transparent. What’s happening: Investor days evolved from analyst days — meetings that large, public companies historically held privately for their core institutional investors and Wall Street analysts. But the recent influx of retail investors into the stock market has changed that. “A lot of these companies know they need to focus on retail investors now,” said Katie Perry, general manager of investor relations at investing platform Public. ▸ Tesla’s first-ever investor day will be live-streamed Wednesday from its Gigafactory in Austin, Texas.
AMC stock surged 23% on Monday after a judge scheduled a hearing for shareholders suing the company. The stock became popular in 2021 as a meme stock on Reddit. Investors of the movie theatre chain are scheduled to vote on a conversion of the preferred shares to common shares on March 14 — which will increase the pool of common stock and thus dilute the voting power of common shareholders. This boosted market sentiment and sent AMC common shares soaring. Insider's Phil Rosen reported on Thursday that the rally is like the meme stock boom of 2021.
Meanwhile, Russia halted supplies of oil to Poland via the Druzhba pipeline, Polish refiner PKN Orlen (PKN.WA) said on Saturday, a day after Poland said it had delivered its first Leopard tanks to Ukraine. Russian pipeline operator Transneft blamed the halt on a lack of completed paperwork for supplies for the second half of February. Russia announced plans earlier this month to cut oil exports from its western ports by up to 25% in March versus February, exceeding its previously mooted production cuts of 5%. "Russian oil output has exceeded expectations in recent months due to lax EU/US sanctions," Bank of America said in a note. Adding some downside pressure, U.S. crude oil inventories surged to the highest level since May 2021 last week, data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed.
Oil lower on firm dollar, market shrugs off Russian supply cuts
  + stars: | 2023-02-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
Oil storage tanks stand at the RN-Tuapsinsky refinery, operated by Rosneft Oil Co., at night in Tuapse, Russia. Oil prices inched lower in volatile trade on Monday, as a stronger dollar and fears of recession risks offset gains arising from Russia's plans to deepen oil supply cuts. A firm dollar makes commodities priced in the U.S. currency more expensive for holders of other currencies. Adding to the downside pressure, U.S. crude oil inventories surged to the highest level since May 2021 last week, data from the Energy Information Administration showed. Oil prices have fallen by about a sixth in the year since Feb. 24, 2022, when Russian troops first marched into Ukraine.
Bullish sentiment has returned in a big way among retail investors as they've started the year piling record amounts into stocks. Speculative bets are backSome of what retail investors are buying has troubled observers. Different from 2021, however, is that institutional and retail investors look like they're on the same team, at least to a noticeable degree. To JPMorgan's Kolanovic, retail investors' optimism foreshadows future weakness in the stock market, as weak hands get wiped out by volatility, similar to how 2022 played out. With the Fed still set to tighten monetary policy, retail investors' enthusiasm for risky assets could backfire like it did last year.
And yet, despite the dip this week, markets right now are brimming with bullishness — and Reddit-loving retail investors are partying like it's 2021. Retail investors are rebuffing Jerome Powell in piling into speculative assets. Remember, at the start of the pandemic, government stimulus and near-zero interest rates gave retail investors the perfect opportunity to lay down speculative bets. "With all of these headwinds, retail investors are jumping in on maybe some ill-conceived optimism," Goldman said. But economic data be damned, retail investors are still piling into the riskiest corners of the market.
Strategists across Wall Street are warning stocks are in for more pain, despite the strong start to 2023. Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson compared investors buying stocks now with ill-prepared climbers on Mount Everest. Here's what experts at some of the biggest banks are saying about what's ahead for stocks. Morgan Stanley's top strategist Mike Wilson wrote in a note this week that stocks have soared too high too fast, and those highs will ultimately prove unsustainable. He said the bidding-up of these speculative stocks suggests a bout of massive market volatility could be just around the corner.
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe oil market is looking for tangible signs of the 'old Chinese appetite,' analyst saysVandana Hari of Vanda Insights says the oil market hasn't gotten signs of China's pre-Covid appetite, which could appear only in the second quarter.
Retail investors poured a record amount of money into the stock market in January, according to Vanda Research. Retail investors' interest in the market picked up during the Covid pandemic, at one point fueling a meme-stock frenzy. JPMorgan's chief global market strategist, Marko Kolanovic, also recently noted the pickup in retail interest. Here are the top securities bought by retail investors so far this year, as of Feb. 15, according to Vanda Research. "Contrary to popular belief, retail money market funds' net assets at an all-time high suggest that retail investors still have plenty of capital to allocate to riskier investments, provided that market conditions remain supportive," he added.
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