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New York CNN —Thursday afternoon will round out what has so far been a sobering earnings season for the Big Tech giants. Alphabet’s revenue will likely remain flat from last year and Amazon’s sales are expected to grow just shy of 6% year-over-year. All three companies’ profits are expected to fall from the year-ago quarter, with Amazon set to suffer the steepest drop with a decline of 40.6%. Then came the press conference, which led to a steep divergence between what the Fed thinks and what the Wall Street thinks. A cautionary tale: In mid-November, Ticketmaster’s site overloaded when fans tried to purchase pre-sale tickets for Taylor Swift’s upcoming tour.
On Wednesday, the company reported adjusted fourth quarter profit of 25.8 pence per share on sales of about 7.4 billion pounds ($9.11 billion). At 0900 GMT, GSK shares were up 0.4% outperforming the FTSE 100 which was up 0.3%. U.S. litigation over the heartburn drug Zantac has also spooked investors, hurting GSK's shares in the second half of 2022. "Nevertheless, against the backdrop of recent performance, and without any contribution from Covid-19, GSK’s 2023 guidance demonstrates some improved momentum," he said. GSK's shares have lagged most of its rivals in recent years.
The overall rise is a reversal of a 15-year trend that has seen US stock indices, flush with fast-growing tech companies, consistently beat those across the Atlantic. Over the past decade, investors poured money into fast-growing tech stocks, aided by ultra-low interest rates. (SXXL)But tech companies have taken a beating recently. Tech companies, including Microsoft and Alphabet, announced thousands of layoffs last month. High interest rates make it more expensive for companies to borrow to expand their business, raising doubts about their future earnings.
It's back to business as usual: An exec said he had confidence in the firm's "cash-flow growth." About one-fifth of those holdings are tied up in an investment vehicle known as the Blackstone Real Estate Investment Trust, or BREIT. Blackstone's real-estate portfolio is outperforming competitorsThe news of Blackstone's increasing eviction efforts came days after the company announced its fourth-quarter earnings. For example, what Blackstone calls its "opportunistic" real-estate portfolio appreciated by more than 7% during 2022 in one of the most challenging markets in recent memory. The firm's core real-estate portfolio gained more than 10% in value during 2022.
Median 2023 price forecasts for all the core LME base metals are lower than both last year's price and current trading levels. The LME copper cash settlement price was $9,075 per tonne on Tuesday, up 10% on the start of January. A median forecast of $8,625 for the full year is 2.1% lower than last year's average of $8,814 per tonne. Aluminium is viewed as more finely balanced, with a median forecast supply surplus of 80,535 tonnes this year and 92,100 tonnes in 2024. That said, last January's median forecast proved surprisingly close to the mark at $34,880 in what was a year of extraordinary volatility.
Euro zone factories are likely over the worst - PMI
  + stars: | 2023-02-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, Feb 1 (Reuters) - The downturn in euro zone manufacturing activity eased again last month suggesting the worst may be over, according to a survey which showed price pressures slackened and the fall in demand moderated, driving a surge in optimism. An index measuring new orders moved up closer to the breakeven mark and factories increased headcount at a faster pace. This was reflected in the future output index which jumped to 58.2 in January from 53.8, an 11-month high. That outperformance was despite sky-high energy costs and rising interest rates taking a heavy toll on the economy. Although the PMI's input prices index fell last month the index reflecting output prices rose slightly - but still remained firmly below levels seen over much of the past two years.
A mutual fund led by a gold-medal winning Olympic swimmer is rare enough, but Joe Hudepohl's Eaton Vance Atlanta Capital Focused Growth is also outperforming the stock market over the past five years. Maybe it's the former athlete's discipline and slavish devotion to patient training that's helping Focused Growth earn handsome long-run returns. " But despite falling 20.4% last year, the Focused Growth fund still enjoys a five-year annual trailing return of 13.97%, according to Morningstar. One of those long-time holdings is health technology company Danaher , which Focused Growth (EAALX) first bought in 2011, according to Morningstar. Morningstar rates the fund with five stars despite its 1.03% expense ratio, and says Focused Growth lands in the second percentile of more than 1,000 large growth funds for its five-year performance.
Euro zone economy unexpectedly expands in Q4, avoids recession
  + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
FRANKFURT, Jan 31 (Reuters) - The euro zone eked out growth in the final three months of 2022, avoiding a recession even as sky-high energy costs, waning confidence and rising interest rates took a toll on the currency bloc's economy, data from Eurostat showed on Tuesday. Gross domestic product in the euro zone expanded by 0.1% in the fourth quarter, outperforming expectations in a Reuters poll for a 0.1% drop. Among the bloc's biggest countries, Germany and Italy recorded negative growth rates for the quarter but France and Spain expanded, Eurostat added, based on a flash estimate that is subject to revisions. Russia's nearly year-old war in Ukraine has proved costly for the euro zone, which now spans 350 million people in 20 countries, given some members' heavy reliance on cheap energy. But the economy has displayed some unexpected resilience, too, much like during the COVID-19 pandemic, when growth outperformed expectations as businesses adjusted faster to changed circumstances than policymakers had predicted.
Nissan shares rise after overhaul of Renault alliance
  + stars: | 2023-01-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
TOKYO, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Shares of Nissan Motor Corp (7201.T) rose in early trade in Tokyo on Tuesday, after the Japanese automaker and its French partner Renault SA (RENA.PA) announced a sweeping overhaul of their two-decade-old alliance putting them on equal footing. Nissan shares were up almost 2%, outperforming a flat Nikkei 225 share average (.N225). Under the deal announced on Monday, Nissan and Renault will now hold 15% stakes in each other, and Nissan will get voting rights with its stake. Previously, Renault held around 43% of the Japanese automaker and Nissan did not have voting rights. The uneven nature of the alliance had long been a source of friction for Nissan executives.
Ukraine upgraded many of its tanks before the war, but Russia also had newer, higher-quality tanks. On the outskirts of a destroyed town, the Ukrainian tank is advances down a road, straight toward the Russian tank. Without stopping, the Ukrainian tank fires a round at its adversary. Ukrainian troops perform maintenance on tanks near the frontline in Donbas on January 18. More victories, better weaponsUkrainian troops inspect a destroyed Russian tank near Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region in December.
Simply buying the worst performers of 2022 seemed to have paid off for investors in January. Discovery have seen the largest bounce back in shares of the group, up 54% after a 60% tumble in 2022. Semiconductor stocks took a beating in 2022 as companies grappled with slowing demand. Of the names included in the list, Lumen Technologies , Epam Systems and Dish Network are the only three downtrodden 2022 stocks bucking the worst-to-first trend. That includes an improvement in long-term trend following indicators, more widespread breakouts, and greater improvement in market breadth, which is currently overbought, she said.
Among the biggest euro zone countries, Germany and Italy recorded negative growth rates for the quarter but France and Spain expanded, Eurostat added, based on a flash estimate that is subject to revisions. Russia's nearly year-old war in Ukraine has proved costly for the euro zone, which now spans 350 million people in 20 countries, given some members' heavy reliance on cheap energy. The overall picture nevertheless remains weak, with meagre growth forecast for 2023 due to a large drop in real incomes and surging interest rates. Ireland's 3.5% Q4 growth figure distorted the overall picture as it was driven largely by activity among big foreign companies based there for tax reasons, economists said, adding that without Ireland, euro zone growth would have been zero. "We continue to expect the euro area economy to contract slightly in the first half of the year, and the recovery expected in the second half is likely to be weak."
REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier/FilesLONDON, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Europe's glittering luxury companies, the region's top stock-market performers in 2023, may see yet more gains driven by a rebound in Chinese spending, but for some the sector is starting to look expensive. An index of European luxury goods retailers (.dMIEU0TA00PUS) has rallied around 18% so far this year, outperforming the wider pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX), which is up 6.2% in the same time frame. But the fact that luxury goods companies are not as cheap as they once were is a "concern/point of attention", said Kasper Elmgreen, Head of Equities at Amundi, Europe's largest asset manager. Jelena Sokolova, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, said that China reopening is the key issue for European luxury stocks this year, and is already at least 50% priced in. These shares have more room to run higher as Chinese consumers hit the shops again and luxury companies flex their pricing power.
L&G succession planning misses the mark
  + stars: | 2023-01-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
LONDON, Jan 30 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Chief executives always like to see their company’s share price dip when they announce their departure. But it might also express mild discontent with the board’s succession planning. Even so, the smoothest way to sign off on Wilson’s tenure would have been to announce his successor now, rather than the news it might take up to a year to find one. After all, the L&G board had long enough to identify a suitable internal candidate. Chairman John Kingman’s reticence may reflect a preference for a big-hitting external candidate to grow the company beyond UK borders.
Earnings : More than 20% of the S & P 500 will report this week; by next Friday, 50% of the S & P will have reported. Craig Johnson at PiperSandler noted that 66% of all S & P 500 stocks are above their 200-day moving averages. It's not just the big-cap S & P 500 that is advancing: So are small-caps. The S & P High-Beta ETF is up 16% this month, at its highest levels since April of 2022. If that holds, it's the first positive January for the S & P 500 since 2019, when it was up 7.9%.
Apple CEO Tim Cook speaks at an Apple special event at Apple Park in Cupertino, California on September 7, 2022. (Photo by Brittany Hosea-Small / AFP) (Photo by BRITTANY HOSEA-SMALL/AFP via Getty Images)Analysts expect Apple to post its first year-over-year revenue decline since 2019's March quarter when it reports earnings on Thursday. Apple gave a rare warning to investors that month explaining that production issues would result in lower shipments than "previously expected." The smartphone market saw an 18% decline in shipments in the fourth quarter, according to IDC, the worst decline ever recorded by the market research firm. The PC market fell 28% in the fourth quarter, according to the company.
One corner of tech, software, might be seeing "limited appetite" from the market, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman analysts forecast in a Jan. 23 note that the earnings per share (EPS) growth of software stocks may outpace the broader S & P 500 index this year. It gave Datadog a "buy" rating and a price target of $128, or an upside of nearly 70%. Software stocks were an investor favorite during the pandemic, but their popularity waned as economies reopened. Nevertheless, the tech sub-sector remains a key part of several long-term secular trends, such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence.
SHANGHAI, Jan 29 (Reuters) - China's smartphone sales fell 13% year-on-year in 2022, the largest plunge for the sector in a decade as consumers spent cautiously, market research firm IDC said on Sunday. That meant total 2022 sales volume was the lowest since 2013 and the first time since then that annual sales have dropped below 300 million, IDC said in a report. Its total shipments fell 25.1% year-on-year, however. The plunge in smartphone sales in China reflected the sector's performance globally. In 2022, global smartphone shipments hit 1.2 billion, the lowest since 2013 and a year-on-year fall of more than 11%, according to IDC.
SHANGHAI, Jan 29 (Reuters) - China's smartphone sales fell 13% year-on-year in 2022, the largest plunge for the sector in a decade as consumers spent cautiously, market research firm IDC said on Sunday. That meant total 2022 sales volume was the lowest since 2013 and the first time since then that annual sales have dropped below 300 million, IDC said in a report. Its total shipments fell 25.1% year-on-year, however. The plunge in smartphone sales in China reflected the sector's performance globally. In 2022, global smartphone shipments hit 1.2 billion, the lowest since 2013 and a year-on-year fall of more than 11%, according to IDC.
Jan 30 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever. It looks like a quiet start to the week in Asia on Monday, but don't be fooled - it may be the calm before the storm. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan index is at a nine-month high and up more than 30% from the October low. It has risen in 11 of the last 13 weeks and is on course for a monthly gain of 11%. China reopens after the Lunar New Year holiday, so trading volumes in Asia will return to something resembling normal.
Goldman Sachs says stocks with greater exposure to China or Europe are beating US-focused stocks. That's partly why he believes stocks in China and Europe have more upside than the S&P 500. He thinks the trajectory of the US economy isn't clear right now, but things in China and Europe are getting better. He added that stocks with high international exposure — not just exposure to China — were outperforming their US-centric competitors for the same reasons. In short, he believes that stocks with a large percentage of international sales are poised for a very strong 2023.
Next week is Groundhog Day, not to mention the 30 th anniversary of the theatrical release of "Groundhog Day." The ensuing market retreat culminated in the October low at more than a 25% decline from the S & P's record high. Inflation is decidedly in retreat, fourth-quarter GDP was slow-ish but solidly positive, Fed officials did nothing to push back against market expectations for a quarter-point bump in rates next week. But none of the interim S & P 500 rallies in that period made it as far above the 200-day moving average as the index currently is. Yet even with obligatory macro scares and market switchbacks along the way, it doesn't mean investors necessarily remain stuck in the same old doom loop.
[1/2] Goldman Sachs' Chairman and CEO David Solomon attends a session at the 50th World Economic Forum (WEF) annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, January 21, 2020. REUTERS/Denis BalibouseNEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - To listen to Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) chief executive David Solomon, the bank is doing "great," while skeptical investors wonder what comes next. Still, Goldman shares are up 3.6% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500 banking index and peers. In October, Goldman scaled back ambitions for Marcus by placing it under the newly-merged asset and wealth division. "Going back to what has made Goldman great for decades will allow the firm to reset and recover," he said.
The Fed's meeting Tuesday and Wednesday comes amid a flood of corporate earnings reports, with about 20% of the S & P 500 reporting that week. The most important day for earnings is Thursday, when Apple , Alphabet and Amazon report after the bell. The Nasdaq Composite was up 11% for the month as of Friday afternoon, well ahead of the 6.2% gain in the S & P 500. Traders have been watching the S & P 500 edge closer to the key threshold of 4,100 , its high from December. AAPL 1Y line apple Apple is also important because of the signals it can send about the strength of the consumer, supply chains and China's reopening.
Despite the recent rally, few believe the downturn in tech has bottomed — but Morgan Stanley believes investors should not sit on the sidelines. Stay invested even if a recession strikes Morgan Stanley believes investors should continue to selectively own Asia tech names even if a widely anticipated recession materializes, given the sector's historical resilience. Stock picks Morgan Stanley recommends investing in commodity and consumer cyclical companies "that will likely be first to come out of the downturn." Morgan Stanley also likes Samsung Electronics on the back of its market share gains, dividend support and potential for growth through M & A. Morgan Stanley has a price target of 700 Taiwan dollars ($23.10) on TSMC, which implies an upside of around 40%.
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