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☆ Gold listless as investors strap in for Fed rate verdict
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies All eyes on Fed statement at 1800 GMTFed seen hiking rates by 25 bpsHawkish Fed, rates repricing could undermine gold prices - analystMarch 22 (Reuters) - Gold prices traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as some investors stayed on the sidelines ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and policy outlook. Spot gold was flat at $1,939.59 per ounce, as of 0318 GMT, after dropping 2% on Tuesday. Investor attention is now on the Fed's decision scheduled at 1800 GMT, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. "Key focus is on how the Fed communicates its forward guidance, in particular 'the higher for longer' rhetoric and dots plots," OCBC's Wong said. "If we do get higher dots plot, then that represents a still-hawkish Fed that is determined to fight inflation ... a potential hawkish repricing could undermine gold prices."

☆ Market nerves tie US rate-setters’ hands
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On Wednesday the central bank raised interest rates a quarter point. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank nearly two weeks ago upended the U.S. financial system, and the Fed and other agencies have had to provide a steadying hand. But by Wednesday morning, just before the central bank’s decision, the futures market was mostly pricing in a 25 basis point hike. Futures contracts tracking the central bank’s benchmark rate have also been shaky. Wall Street reforms passed in 2010 crystallized the central bank's duty to foster a stable financial system.

☆ The Fed is about to deliver a momentous policy decision. It'll be a choice between keeping the focus on inflation or stemming the banking chaos.
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Powell and the Fed may acknowledge that monetary policy has caused some pain, and even add that more may be coming. What's your prediction for today's Fed decision and what Powell might say about the recent banking tumult? A market analyst says investors need to have some key questions answered by the Fed today. Market watchers should pay attention over whether the central bank sees the SVB collapse and resulting crisis as deflationary. The governor of Florida has proposed legislation to ban a central bank digital currency and has called on like-minded states to do the same.

☆ US stocks slip ahead of Fed's decision on interest rates following bank crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

US stocks slipped Wednesday before the Federal Reserve's March rate decision. The Fed's decision is the first since SVB's collapse set off distress in regional banks. The policy decision is due at 2:00 p.m. Eastern and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at 2:30 p.m. Eastern. Cathie Wood says the Fed's rate hikes hit Ark's strategy like an 'earthquake' as the fund logs a $2 billion loss. Top economist David Rosenberg said the Fed should put bigger rate hikes back on the table after bouts of 'speculative lunacy'.

☆ Asia stocks bounce gingerly but bank fears lurk
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. futures rose 0.2% in early Asia trade. A Swiss government-backed buyout of Credit Suisse by UBS has cauterized the immediate concern over European financial stability. But the wipeout of some Credit Suisse bondholders has sent a shockwave through bank debt, and persistent signs of stress at U.S. regional lenders has investors on high alert. Bond markets whipsawed overnight as traders seek to figure out what the bank stress means for rates policy. U.S. interest rate futures have priced in just one more 25 basis point hike before a series of cuts beginning as soon as June.

☆ Dollar languishes as bank crisis fears ebb on Credit Suisse rescue
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, March 21 (Reuters) - The dollar regained some ground on Tuesday but was pinned near a five-week low as traders tiptoed back into riskier assets after UBS' state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse allayed some fears of a widespread, systemic banking crisis. "There has been pretty modest demand for U.S. dollars at the Fed swap lines, so that is a positive sign in and of itself," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA). The dollar slipped 0.12% to 131.15 against the Japanese yen , while the U.S. dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, fell 0.04% to 103.30. Lower U.S. rate expectations also added to downward pressure on the dollar ahead of the Fed's two-day policy meeting commencing later on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said on Tuesday it saw no immediate need to request the reinstatement of a U.S. dollar swap line that expired in 2021.

☆ Gold inches higher as investors focus on Fed meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold bars and coins lying in a safe on a table at the precious metal dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday, with investors looking forward to the Federal Reserve policy meeting as expectations grew that the U.S. central bank would slow its monetary policy tightening given the upheaval in the banking sector. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $1,982.59 per ounce, as of 0317 GMT. U.S. gold futures also rose 0.2% to $1,986.30. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $22.57 per ounce, platinum edged down 0.2% to $986.68 and palladium eased 0.1% to $1,412.70.

After spiking earlier this month, mortgage rates dropped significantly last week and are holding steady today. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates would impact your monthly payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe current average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.6%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThe average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.9%, a decrease from the prior week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased significantly in 2022.

☆ Premarket stocks: Five questions for the Federal Reserve as the banking crisis drags on
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

A policy rate announcement is expected on Wednesday along with new economic projections, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will face the press to answer questions. Is the Fed’s fight against inflation destabilizing the banking system? The US banking system is under a lot of pressure right now. Lagarde opted to portray that rate increase as a signal that the financial system remains strong. Yet, ironically, the banking mess is now helping tech companies and cryptocurrencies as investors flock out of the banking system in search of alternative safe spaces to store their cash.

☆ Dollar edges lower ahead of Fed, BOE
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar edged lower and sterling fell on Tuesday as traders reckoned banking stress would keep the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England from hiking rates much further, or at all, later in the week. But European banks rallied on Tuesday for a second consecutive day eased some of those fears following UBS Group's state-backed takeover of Credit Suisse. The dollar has followed those expectations lower, though general nervousness in financial markets has tempered selling. The greenback ticked about 0.51% higher to $1.0774 per euro , while the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was 0.15% lower at 103.10. The Norwegian crown rose 0.35% to 10.6120 per dollar, after falling last week to its lowest level since early October.

☆ These are our two preferred scenarios for the Fed's big March meeting next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-18 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Two things will capture all the market's attention in the coming week: The Federal Reserve's March meeting and the government's ongoing attempt to quell worries about the banking system. If it raises, Powell should speak softly; no raise and Powell should strongly remind the market that the work isn't done. Still, for the week, U.S. stocks fared better, with the S & P 500 rising 1.5% and the Nasdaq gaining 4.5%. On Thursday, initial jobless claims for the week ended March 11 came in at 192,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the prior week and below the expected 205,000. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

☆ Moral hazard? Hawkish pause? What these terms mean and why should investors care
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Two phrases are being thrown around on CNBC and elsewhere: "moral hazard" and "hawkish pause." Now that's not to say there isn't a middle ground, a scenario in which deposits are 100% guaranteed nationwide and regulations are put in place to protect against any resulting moral hazard. This is an interesting solution that does address the concern of moral hazard — at least at First Republic Bank — while providing needed liquidity. Given the Fed's dual mandate to ensure price stability and maximize unemployment, the argument for a rate hike is relatively straightforward — keep going until inflation reaches more sustainable levels. Two possible scenarios: a rate hike with more dovish commentary or the "hawkish pause."

☆ Premarket stocks: The banking meltdown put the Fed in a bind
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-17 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

In prior years, the Fed was able to respond “unswervingly” to financial risks by loosening policy without worrying about price stability, he said. The reputation play: The question isn’t about what the Fed should do, it’s about what the Fed will do, said Daco. The central bank has the tools if needed to respond to a liquidity crisis “but this is not what we are seeing,” she told reporters on Thursday. Prior to the current stress in the banking sector, Fed officials were hinting that they would hike rates by half a point. “Every central bank tightening cycle in history has induced some sort of financial strains,” she wrote Thursday.

☆ Wharton Professor Jeremy Siegel says the SVB collapse could be a good thing - if it 'knocks some reality' into the Fed to pause rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The SVB crash could be good for markets if it forces the Fed to pause rate hikes, Jeremy Siegel said. The economist has blasted central bankers over rate hikes, which he says raise the odds of recession. SVB's implosion is a consequence of rising interest rates, and the Fed needs to take it as a wake up call, he said. Central bankers have raised interest rates 1,700% over the last year, a level that Siegel has warned could push the economy into a recession. A sudden pause in rate hikes could signal the Fed believes the banking system is in crisis, which could spark more volatility in markets and cause stocks to fall.

☆ Futures price toss up on likelihood of Fed rate hike next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

(Reuters) - Traders of futures tied to the Federal Reserve’s policy rate have dialed back their bets the U.S. central bank will raise its benchmark rate a quarter of a percentage point next week to about even odds, after a government report showed U.S. retail prices fell in February and turbulence at Credit Suisse renewed fears of a banking crisis. Prices of Fed funds futures reflected about a 50% chance of a quarter-percentage point rate hike this month with roughly a 50% chance seen of no change. The current target range is 4.5%-4.75%. One day ago, futures were pricing in an almost 70% probability of a quarter-percentage point rate at the Fed’s policy meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

☆ Dow falls 500 points as banking fears spread
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-15 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —The Dow opened the day with a decline of more than 500 points Wednesday as banking fears spread across global markets. Shares of embattled Swiss lender Credit Suisse were down by more than 20% after its biggest shareholder chose not to increase its funding. That comes after the bank cited “material weakness” in its financial reporting Tuesday and got rid of executive bonuses. Shares of US banks also fell: Wells Fargo was down 4.9% and JPMorgan Chase stock dropped 3.6%. Wall Street also continues to grapple with banking tumult domestically, after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank rocked markets last week and early this week.

We are buying 20 shares of Caterpillar (CAT) on Wednesday, at roughly $214.38 apiece. Following today's trade, Jim Cramer's Charitable Trust will own 310 shares of CAT, increasing its weighting in the portfolio to about 2.67% from 2.5%. With the market tumbling Wednesday, we're adding to our position in Caterpillar (CAT) for the second day in a row . THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.

☆ Wall St relieved after inflation data but warns Fed’s fight not over
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

February’s inflation report showed consumer prices rising by 0.4%, with a year-on-year increase of 6% - in line with analysts expectations, but far above the 2% rate the Fed hopes to achieve. The CPI report "was pretty much as expected. We're at a point of market anxiety where expected is good," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments. The CPI report was not all good news. The CPI report “wasn’t worse than expected,” he said.

☆ The Silicon Valley Bank debacle suddenly changed the outlook for interest rates in 2023
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Ethan Dodd | Ayelet Sheffey | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Investors expected the Fed to raise rates March 21-22. Silicon Valley Bank crashed, so now investors are betting the Fed will slow its roll. In a chaotic series of events last week, regulators shut down Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) on Friday — and just two days later, they announced they would be bailing out SVB depositors. The pace and duration of those interest rate hikes is at the top of mind for markets and investors. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs thinks the Fed won't raise rates at all as more banks are already expected to fail.

Mortgage rates have decreased somewhat over the past couple of days and are currently the lowest they've been in over three weeks. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control. If the Fed acts too aggressively and engineers a recession, mortgage rates could fall further than what current forecasts expect.

☆ Premarket stocks: What comes next in the banking crisis? The early 1990s hold clues
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

This isn’t 2008: There are some key differences between today’s banking saga and what happened in 2008. This time around the US federal government stepped in early to guarantee all customer deposits and restore confidence in the US banking system. Here comes CPIFormer banking regulators, economists and Wall Street analysts are increasingly calling for the Federal Reserve to pause its inflation-fighting interest rate hikes because of the current banking sector chaos. Last Wednesday, investors were putting 70% odds of a half-point interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve policy meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Analysts expect the inflation rate to come in at 6% year-over-year (down from 6.4% in January) and at 0.4% month-over-month (down from 0.5% in January).

☆ Bank runs don’t change Fed’s focus on high prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Ben Winck | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The federal government took emergency action to stave off other implosions, but SVB’s collapse cast a shadow over the Fed’s next rate decision. Economists at Goldman Sachs and Barclays scrapped their forecasts for a rate hike and now expect the central bank to hold rates steady when it meets on March 22. That is three times the central bank’s inflation target. Inflation remains much too hot for the Fed’s liking, and the central bank has more reason to repeat February’s 25-basis-point hike than to deviate from it. Its last policy meeting concluded with the central bank lifting the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%.

☆ Stock futures are down slightly following Thursday’s market sell-off fueled by banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 52 points, or 0.2%. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each shed 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite recorded a 2.05% slide, while the S&P 500 posted a 1.85% dip. Financials was the worst performing sector within the S&P 500 at a 4.1% drop — its worst daily performance since 2020. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect nonfarm payrolls to rise 225,000 in the month, which would mark a slowdown in growth from January's unexpectedly large gain of 517,000.

☆ Frontier countries to suffer most if Fed rate gets to 6% - analysts
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Rodrigo Campos | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

"This mix is generally a net negative for emerging markets." A recent Barclays analysis showed a 50 basis point Fed rate hike would increase interest rate volatility, which "would be more destabilizing initially, as it typically comes with EM FX underperformance, which could trigger a further leg up in EM rates." Analysts at JPMorgan expect the dollar to weaken once the terminal rate stabilizes, but a 50-basis point Fed hike "would be a regime-shift in favor of outsized USD-strength." A 6% Fed rate environment alongside still-hot inflation does make short-term rates in Chile and India as well as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary most vulnerable, UBS found. Chinese equities could provide a safe haven in a 6% fed funds rate scenario, UBS said.

☆ We have a buyer's mentality heading into Friday's highly anticipated jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-09 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Stocks accelerated to the downside late in the session as worries resurfaced about how Friday's employment report might influence Fed policy. Depend on the data Powell's testimony Tuesday before a Senate panel and Wednesday before a House panel was lengthy and covered a broad range of issues, including rates, inflation, the debt ceiling and cryptocurrency regulation. That includes the government's February nonfarm payrolls report on Friday and the latest readings on consumer inflation and wholesale inflation next week. Economists estimate that 207,500 nonfarm jobs were created in February — less than half of January's much stronger-than-expected 517,000 additions . As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.

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