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BEIJING — China's retail sales, industrial production and urban investment in August all grew slower than expected, according to National Bureau of Statistics data released Saturday. Retail sales rose by 2.1% in August from a year ago, missing expectations of 2.5% growth among economists polled by Reuters. Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% for the January to August period, slower than the forecast of 3.5% growth. The urban unemployment rate was 5.3% in August, an uptick from 5.2% in July. The youth unemployment rate in July was 17.1%.
Persons: Liu Aihua Organizations: National Bureau, Statistics, Reuters, Investment, National Bureau of Statistics Locations: Hangzhou, China, BEIJING
Economists Ed Hyman is backing off his call for a hard landing, even though he still sees the potential for a recession ahead. "History and experience say to stick with a hard landing outlook," he said in a client note Thursday. "However, the hard math that our team has reviewed says flip to a soft landing outlook. "In our view, arguments for a hard landing are still persuasive," Hyman wrote. "So this flip could be a mistake," Hyman wrote.
Persons: Ed Hyman, Hyman, Ally, Russell Hutchinson, it's Organizations: ISI, Atlanta Federal Reserve, JPMorgan Chase, Federal Reserve Locations: New York
US stocks jumped on Friday as S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 aimed for a five-day win streak. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate cut announcement next week. The Fed is expected to cut rates for the first time since 2019, with about even odds for a 25- or 50-basis point cut. Based on probabilities from the CME's FedWatch Tool, there's a 49%/51% split on whether the Fed will deliver a 50-basis point or 25-basis point interest rate cut, respectively. AdvertisementNext week's expected interest rate cut from the Fed will represent the first time the central bank has lowered rates since 2019.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, it's, Aditya Bhave Organizations: Nasdaq, Federal, Service, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Locations: Here's
Economists have long called for an overhaul of the nation's retirement age laws, currently among the world's lowest, which was set in an era of lower life expectancies. Raising the retirement age would help ease local governments' pension pool cash crunch, Sheana Yue, an economist from Oxford Economics said. Still, "more needs to be done to improve retirement adequacy," Maybank's Tay said, while stating that China needs a stronger pension plan and diversified investment avenues to ensure sustainable retirement savings. China's Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has added a few tools for citizens to check their indicated retirement age on its website and mobile app. China may roll out "another round of delay in the late 2030s, especially if China's pension fund balance is tight," Xu cautioned.
Persons: Erica Tay, Tay, Bruce Pang, Tianchen Xu, Xu, Yue, Maybank's Tay Organizations: Getty, Maybank Investment Banking Group, CNBC, Economist Intelligence Unit, Oxford Economics, Academy of Social Sciences, China's Ministry of Human Resources, Social Security Locations: Fuyang, China, JLL, Beijing
From e-commerce firm Amazon to pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly , Morgan Stanley's top stocks to own for the next 12 months spans a wide array of sectors. The majority of Morgan Stanley's picks are tilted toward growth, with 67% of the picks meeting that classification. Here's a look at some of the stocks that Morgan Stanley says are worth owning over the next year. Amazon stock has added 23% in 2024. LLY YTD mountain Eli Lilly stock.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Morgan, Morgan Stanley's, Morgan Stanley, Brian Nowak's, Nowak, Terence Flynn's, Eli Lilly's, LLY, Flynn Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Amazon, Pharma
Retail giant Walmart is among this week's most overbought stocks, with an 14-day RSI reading of 81.7. The average price target on the Oakland, California-based stock is nearly 10% below the stock's current price, suggesting a pullback may lie ahead. Analysts estimate Halliburton and APA might rally nearly 60% each, while Occidental's price target is 38% above its current level. The average price target on the Oakland, California-based stock is nearly 10% below the stock's current price, suggesting a pullback may lie ahead. Analysts estimate Halliburton and APA might rally nearly 60% each, while Occidental's price target is 38% above its current level.
Persons: Clorox, Johnson, Let's, Gabby Jones, Cooper Organizations: Nasdaq, Dow Jones, CNBC Pro, Retail, Walmart, Consumer, Johnson, Energy, Halliburton, APA, . Occidental Petroleum, Occidental Petroleum, Pharmaceutical, Moderna, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, Getty, UDR UDR, Inc, Oracle Corp, CNBC, HAL Halliburton, APA APA Corp, Occidental Petroleum Corp, Walgreens, Body Locations: Arkansas, Oakland , California, Secaucus , New Jersey
Read previewThe US is moving toward a recession, as the economy is feeling the comedown after trillions of "unproductive" cash was pumped in during the pandemic, according to former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. AdvertisementBut most of the stimulus cash wasn't deployed productively, Ross said, pointing to Americans who "immediately spent" their checks in a wild shopping spree. Related storiesStrength in the labor market was also partly distorted by stimulus cash, he suggested. Hiring has steadily slowed over the past year, with the unemployment rate triggering one long-running recession indicator with a perfect track record. Most economists still agree that the economy remains on solid footing, given the rapid pace of growth and historically low unemployment rate.
Persons: , Wilbur Ross, Trump, Ross Organizations: Service, Commerce, Bloomberg, Business, Conference, Investor
The print is causing concern that inflation may not be going away, which would mean higher interest rates than markets expect going forward. Skyler Weinand, chief investment officer, Regan CapitalWeinand says the market's current outlook on rate cuts will only take place if the economy deteriorates significantly. If inflation does slow that much, the Fed would likely cut rates faster than just a quarter percent per meeting over the next 3-6 months," Adams said in an email. "However, the stickiness of service price inflation and shelter inflation suggests the Fed will cut rates slower than financial markets currently price in." This would be a disappointment to short-term bond markets that have priced over 250 bps of rate cuts by the end of 2025."
Persons: Brian Rose, UBS Global Wealth Management Rose, Rose, Skyler Weinand, Regan Capital Weinand, Bill Adams, Adams, Peter Perkins, MRB Partners Perkins, Josh Jamner, ClearBridge Investments Jamner, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli Organizations: Service, CPI, Business, UBS Global Wealth Management, UBS Global Wealth, Fed, Comerica Bank, MRB Partners, Investment, ClearBridge Investments, Independent, bps
"One reason we expect Fed easing to proceed at a relatively gentle pace is that there is still work to do on inflation," the report said. On a month-on-month basis, inflation rose 0.2% from July. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% for the month, slightly higher than the 0.2% estimate. The 12-month core inflation rate held at 3.2%, in line with the forecast. It took far longer than anticipated to tame inflation and gaps have been revealed in central banks' understanding of what drives inflation."
Persons: Fitch, Dow Jones Organizations: U.S, Fitch, Labor Department, CPI, Fed Locations: Federal
Nonetheless, Jeep CEO Antonio Filosa believes the brand's worst days are behind it and it's still possible to achieve the 1 million sales target. Jeep salesFilosa said Jeep, which reports sales quarterly, saw U.S. sales rise last month: They were up 28% from August 2023 and 55% from July. The New York Stock Exchange welcomes The Jeep Brand (NYSE: STLA) to the podium, on May 31, 2024. Ahead of such vehicles, Jeep has increased its media spending by 20% compared with the first half of the year, according to the automaker. 2024 Jeep Wagoneer S EV Jeep
Persons: Michael Wayland, Antonio Filosa, Filosa, Cox, Filosa's, Carlos Tavares, Stellantis, Jeep, Lynn Martin, Tavares, Bob Broderdorf, Nathan Laine Organizations: CNBC DETROIT, Jeep, Cherokee, Cox Automotive, CNBC, Council, New York Stock Exchange, Brand, NYSE Group, NYSE, Fiat Chrysler, France's PSA Groupe, Paris, Bloomberg, Getty, U.S, EV Locations: U.S, American
Wall Street is growing more divided on how much the Federal Reserve will move interest rates next week. In fact, the market's mixed outlook ahead of the central bank decision is more unsettled than any time since the Fed started pushing borrowing costs higher in early 2022. Investors are certain that the Fed will begin reducing interest rates next week from their current 5.25% to 5.50% range, but a sense of uncertainty lingers. We do not anticipate any dissents" from voting members of the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee next week, Bank of America's Bhave added. "So if pricing stays where it is currently, it would be the first meeting in years where there's serious uncertainty about the rates decision."
Persons: Henry Allen, Aditya Bhave, Bhave, America's Bhave Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Committee, Bank, America's
UK leads resurgence in European office investment
  + stars: | 2024-09-13 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +5 min
Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty ImagesLONDON — The U.K. is leading a recovery in Europe's long subdued office real estate market, with overall investment in the sector expected to pick up further in the second half of the year. Overall, European office investment transactions in the first half of the year fell 21% year-on-year to 14.1 billion euros, Savills data showed — a 60% decrease on the five-year H1 average. Europe's divided recoveryThe U.K. real estate market was the first in Europe to undergo a significant contraction following its peak in 2022. "London is leading the way a bit, partly because it repriced earlier and quicker and more significantly," Kim Politzer, head of research for European real estate at Fidelity International, told CNBC over the phone. Kim Politzer head of research for European real estate at Fidelity International
Persons: Mike Barnes, Savills, Kim Politzer, Marcus Meijer, Mark, CNBC's, James Burke, Tom Leahy, Leahy, Europe's, JLL Organizations: Getty, Britain, CNBC, Bank of, Fidelity International, European Central Bank, Nurphoto, U.S Locations: London, Europe, Paris, Stockholm, Berlin, Hamburg, La Défense, France, Ireland, Netherlands, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Southern Europe, Germany
The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones all posted gains amid rate cut speculation. Odds of a 50 basis point cut rose sharply this week from about 30% to 49%. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notched a five-day win streak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged almost 300 points. Odds are split 49% / 51% for a 50 basis point or 25 basis point rate cut, respectively. Advertisement"A less aggressive Fed rate outlook could spark some volatility given market expectations," Adam said.
Persons: Dow Jones, , Raymond James, Larry Adam, Adam Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Dow, Open, Fed, Markets
"When you have a new deal, it smashes the stock," Jim said. We are not surprised the transaction pushed the stock lower so it doesn't impact our investment thesis. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB.
Persons: Jim Cramer, Jim, That's, that's, Eaton, Stocks, Jim Cramer's Organizations: CNBC, Nasdaq, Microsoft, Apple, GE Healthcare, GE Aerospace, Oracle, Nvidia, Boeing, Halliburton, Uber Locations: GEHC, Dover
WASHINGTON — Two brothers from Pennsylvania and New Jersey who allegedly assaulted a New York Times photographer and stole her camera after they stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, were arrested by the FBI on Thursday. The men the FBI identified as the Walker brothers, as seen pointing at a New York Times photographer before her assault. “Grabbing my press pass, they saw that my ID said The New York Times and became really angry. Two men the FBI identified as the Walker brothers, seen on the right in face masks, after assaulting a New York Times photographer. Reached Thursday, Schaff referred NBC News to a New York Times spokesperson, who said the paper is grateful to authorities "for their persistence in pursuing justice in this case."
Persons: Philip Walker, David Walker, Walker, Erin Schaff, Schaff, Brian Mock, antifa, , , Nancy Pelosi’s, Danielle Rhoades Ha, sleuths, , Donald Trump, “ Trump, Trump, Jan Organizations: WASHINGTON, New York Times, U.S, Capitol, FBI, The New York Times, NBC, NBC News, U.S . Capitol, Boys, Trump, pitchfork Locations: Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Upper Chichester , Pennsylvania, Delran , New Jersey, Trump
Oracle shares rose about 6% in extended trading on Thursday after the database software maker raised its fiscal 2026 revenue guidance and issued a heady forecast for the 2029 fiscal year. At an analyst meeting coinciding with the Oracle CloudWorld conference in Las Vegas, the company said it now sees at least $66 billion in fiscal 2026 revenue. She pointed to partnerships that will allow companies to use Oracle database software through top-tier cloud providers Amazon , Google and Microsoft . The company's cloud infrastructure revenue grew 45% in the most recent quarter, a quicker pace than at Amazon, Google or Microsoft. As Oracle plans to expand revenue, Catz said she expects capital expenditures to double in the current 2025 fiscal year.
Persons: Safra Catz, LSEG, Catz, Alex Zukin Organizations: Oracle Corp, New York Stock Exchange, Oracle, Google, Microsoft, Nvidia Locations: New York, Las Vegas
The rate of fraud alerts is "absolutely" going up, according to Deloitte U.S. risk & financial advisory principal Satish Lalchand. About 60% of credit card holders in 2023 experienced some sort of attempted fraud, according to Experian. "Fraud in general across all channels, whether it's check fraud, credit card fraud payments, the peer-to-peer payments, everything, is significantly increasing at a very rapid pace," Lalchand said. It has forecast a persistent threat that could reach nearly $400 billion in card fraud in the decade to 2032. "When we come down to credit cards, financial institutions are investing more in the concept of fraud and fraud modernization, replacing older technology and having better fraud detection capabilities, and retuning their alerts," Lalchand said.
Persons: it's, Satish Lalchand, Lalchand, Nilson, That's Organizations: Deloitte U.S, Global, U.S, Visa
Unfortunately, she was kicked out before she could fulfill her world cruise aspirations. "They didn't just complain, they outright threatened with media unless they get what they want," Mikael Petterson, the founder and CEO of Villa Vie, told BI in an email. "That's how much I had wanted a world cruise." But she was kicked off before Villa Vie Odyssey could set sailOther buyers have begun moving onto the residential cruise ship. So far, Villa Vie has repaid her almost $8,000, with another about $7,400 still pending — still a few thousand short of her $18,600.
Persons: , Jenny Phenix, — Phenix, Bonny Kelter, Mikael Petterson, Vie, Kelter, Villa Vie, Bonny, Petterson, Phenix, Villa, she's, aren't, Fred Olsen Cruise, Fred Olsen's, Angela, Stephen Theriac, Kathy Villalba, Stephen Theriac Petterson, hasn't Organizations: Service, Business, Residences, Sea Cruises, Villa Vie, Villa, Fred Olsen Cruise Lines, Norwegian Cruise, Security Locations: Europe, Asia, Australia, South, North America, Africa, Palm Beach , Florida, Braemar, Norwegian, Florida
Bitcoin will reach $125,000 by the year's end if Trump wins the election, Standard Chartered said. Bitcoin would reach $75,000 under Kamala Harris, as she is more open to crypto than president Biden, SC said. Under the self-branded "crypto president," bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the year's end, analyst Geoff Kendrick wrote on Thursday. If Harris wins the presidency, bitcoin will reach $75,000 by the end of the year, Kendrick estimates. Even if Trump wins, Kendrick tempered his prior outlook that bitcoin can reach $150,000 by the year's end.
Persons: Bitcoin, Kamala Harris, Biden, , bitcoin, Donald Trump, Geoff Kendrick, Trump, Gary Gensler, Kendrick, Joe Biden, Harris, Bernstein, Gautam Chhugani Organizations: Trump, Chartered, SC, Service, Securities and Exchange Commission, BTC, MicroStrategy, BlackRock's ETF, Democratic, Treasury
Moderna on Thursday said it plans to cut around $1.1 billion in expenses by 2027 and win approvals for several new products as it charts a path forward after the rapid decline of its Covid business. The company aims to trim R&D spending to a range of $3.6 billion to $3.8 billion in 2027, down from an expected $4.8 billion at the end of this year, according to a release. Moderna also has five non-respiratory products across cancer, latent viruses and rare diseases that could be approved by 2027, according to the company's release. The company expects 2025 revenue to come in at $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion. From 2026 to 2028, Moderna expects a compounded annual growth rate of more than 25% as new products launch.
Persons: Moderna, Stephane Bancel, Leerink, Mani Foroohar, Foroohar, Michael Yee, Bancel Organizations: Moderna, CNBC, Jefferies Locations: New York, U.S
Wholesale inflation slowed again last month
  + stars: | 2024-09-12 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +1 min
CNN —US producer prices continued to cool overall in August, showing that inflation across the economy is improving. But a closely watched measure of underlying inflation remained stubbornly elevated, reflecting the bumpiness in reining in price hikes. August’s monthly increase was driven by a 0.4% gain on the services side, as goods prices were unchanged, thanks in part to falling energy prices. Economists had expected that prices would increase 0.2% on a monthly basis and 1.8% annually, according to FactSet estimates. Excluding the more volatile categories of food and energy, core PPI advanced 0.3% from July, countering a 0.2% decline seen the month before.
Persons: Price Organizations: CNN, of Labor Statistics, PPI, Federal Reserve Locations: US, reining
Former President Donald Trump repeated a broad range of false claims, internet rumors and outlandish conspiracy theories during Tuesday night’s presidential debate, many of which might have seemed unintelligible without a deep understanding of obscure corners of far-right social media. Late in the debate right before the second break, Trump released a torrent of vague claims alleging corruption in the Biden administration. “At this debate, it was Trump who relayed a (false) online social media meme about migrants eating cats that showed his team in its own bubble,” he wrote. During Tuesday’s debate, one of Trump’s bizarre claims related to abortion. Midway through the debate, Trump spoke about election security and alleged that an unspecified “they” are trying to get illegal immigrants to vote.
Persons: Donald Trump, , it’s, Trump, Biden, Biden doesn’t, , “ He’s, Hunter Biden, didn’t, Kamala Harris, Erick Erickson, , Harris, Laura Loomer, Islamophobe, Logan Paul, Adin Ross, Josh Kraushaar, Joe Biden, Linsey Davis, Davis, Ralph Northam, Northam Organizations: U.S . Capitol, ABC, GOP, Conservative, Trump, Fox News Radio, Democratic, Associated Press, Reuters, Street, New Locations: Ohio, China, Ukraine, Moscow’s, Moscow, West Virginia, Virginia, New Republic
Social Security recipients can expect next year's annual cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) to be the lowest since 2021, following cooler inflation readings in July and August. The Social Security Administration is expected to announce the official cost-of-living adjustment for 2025 on Oct. 10. Much of the political debate about Social Security remains focused on reforming — and ultimately paring back — the entire program. But earlier this year, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania introduced the Boosting Benefits and COLAs for Seniors Act, designed to increase Social Security benefits at a rate "that actually reflects the costs seniors face." "The Boosting Benefits and COLAs for Seniors Act would help seniors contend with rising costs and ensure that Social Security remains a lifeline for all who need it.”
Persons: ” Mary Johnson, Johnson, Democratic Sen, Bob Casey of, ” Casey, Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Social, Senior Citizens League, Social Security, Medicare, Trustees, Social Security Administration, League, Democratic, Seniors, Bureau of Labor Statistics, , Social Security, Security Locations: Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania
The pace of inflation likely moderated again in August — further relief for beleaguered consumers still smarting from pandemic-era price shocks. Though price growth has largely returned to the Federal Reserve's official 2% target, the sting of rapid price increases over the past four years lingers for many consumers. The latest inflation report is likely to cement a 0.25% cut in the Federal Reserve's key interest rate, currently at about 5.3%, later this month. But experts say it will take some time for consumers to feel the impact of the lower interest rate — and the relatively small size of the cut means borrowing costs will still be somewhat elevated. While the Fed is now widely expected to cut interest rates, a cut of just 0.25% may not be enough to stave off that scenario.
Persons: , There's, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Zillow, Paul, ” Marina Walsh, ” Walsh, Torsten Slok, Slok, Sophia Kearney, Jerome Powell's, Kearney, Lederman Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve's, Democratic, Labor Statistics, Princeton, , Mortgage Bankers Association, Apollo Global Management, FHN, NBC News, Fed Locations: U.S, New York, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, St, Las Vegas, Phoenix
Investors returned to Nvidia stock Wednesday after CEO Jensen Huang made a compelling case at a major tech gathering for the innovation he strives for and the competitive moat he's built. There have been a lot of doubters on Wall Street since Nvidia reported quarterly results on Aug. 28 . NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD On stage with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, Huang was asked how he views the competition. The way that computers are built today, if you look at our new Blackwell system, we design seven different types of chips to create the system. While ducking a question about Nvidia stock, Solomon did tell CNBC that Nvidia is a "super company" that's well-positioned to keep succeeding.
Persons: Jensen Huang, Goldman Sachs, That's, David Solomon, Huang, Blackwell, Nvidia's, it's, ramping Blackwell, that's, It's, Solomon, Communacopia, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Sam Yeh Organizations: Nvidia, Technology Conference, CNBC, Goldman, Blackwell, AFP, Getty Locations: San Francisco, Communacopia, Taipei
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