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☆ The Fed pursuing 2% inflation is an 'absolute trap' for the economy, 40-year market veteran says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed's 2% inflation goal is an "absolute trap," according to 40-year market veteran Barry Knapp. Knapp pointed to tightening credit conditions, suggesting more tightening from the Fed could cause a recession. Elevated prices aren't always a drag on the economy, he added, pointing to 3%-4% inflation in the 90s. "The whole 2% target is an absolute trap," The Ironsides Macroeconomics founder said in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday. But elevated inflation isn't necessarily a hindrance to the economy, Knapp said, pointing to 3%-4% inflation in the early 90s, years when the economy expanded and benefited from a huge boom in business spending.

Average 30-year mortgage rates were pretty volatile in April, at times going as low as 6% before spiking as high as 6.7%. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's mortgage rates will affect your monthly and long-term payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 30-year fixed mortgage rates inched up to 6.43% last week, according to Freddie Mac. Inflation remains elevated, but has started to slow, which is a good sign for mortgage rates and the broader economy. Just keep in mind that HELOC rates are variable, so if rates start to trend up further, yours will likely increase, as well.

☆ Stocks could soon retest all-time highs as markets react to possible 'thesis-changing' final rate hike from the Fed, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks face a "make or break" moment this week and could rally to 4,750, Fundstrat said. That's because the Fed could soon issue its last rate hike, which is expected to be bullish for stocks. A Fed pause could be a "make or break" moment for stocks, Lee said, as steep rate hikes weighed heavily on equities in 2022. That's largely because easing inflation indicators could pressure the Fed to hold back on its hawkish monetary policy, Lee said. He has been bullish on stocks through much of the bear market, previously predicting that the S&P 500 would hit another all-time-high in 2022, the year the benchmark index actually sank 20%.

☆ Moribund euro zone, Amazon outlook dent stocks ahead of rate meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Huw Jones | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Oil was firmer but still heading for another monthly decline after disappointing U.S. economic data and uncertainty over interest rates. The yen fell to a nine-year low against the euro after the Bank of Japan left its ultra-easy monetary policy unchanged. The euro zone grew only marginally in the first three months of 2023, and at a rate lower than market expectations, sending the euro lower. "Futures are saying interest rates will be lower than Fed Funds by year end, indicating a decline. Markets are pricing in an 85% chance of the Fed raising rates by 25 basis points, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

☆ US stocks rise as investors cheer strong corporate earnings and shake off banking fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose on Friday, boosted by a streak of strong earnings reports. 79% of S&P 500 companies that reported earnings have beated estimates, according to FactSet. Investors digested fresh bank weakness amid reports that First Republic is headed for FDIC receivership. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. Meanwhile, the Employment Cost Index rose 1.2% over the past quarter, a sign that inflation's presence is still being felt in the economy.

☆ Nouriel Roubini says a hard-landing recession or entrenched inflation are the only 2 possible outcomes as the Fed battles a 'trilemma'
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Solving the US economy's financial issues with only Fed tightening looks like "Mission Impossible," Nouriel Roubini said. The Fed's current approach will result in either a recession or entrenched inflation. The "Dr. Doom" economist said the Fed is up against the ultimate "trilemma" of trying to achieve price stability, growth stability, and financial stability using just one policy tool — tweaking the federal funds rate. If the Fed continues to hike rates to bring inflation down further, that could hit the economy and banks harder. But if policymakers let inflation continue to run above target, that could reinforce inflation.

☆ Markets next week have to contend with how aggressive the Fed drumbeat sounds
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

"Is Chairman Powell going to say, 'It is likely that we pause now and assess what the economy is going to do?' "The tone on that balance is going to be very critical to how the market is going to move next week." "What is [Powell] going to do? June Fed meeting The betting on Wall Street right now is that, after next week, the Fed will standpat at its next meeting six weeks later, on June 13-14. Beyond Apple, some 161 other companies in the S & P 500 index are scheduled to report latest-quarter results next week.

☆ Dollar, yen boosted as US banking sector fears put safe-havens back in vogue
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 after a 0.5% increase overnight. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.13% to 133.53 per dollar, after gaining about 0.4% on Tuesday. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% in April as the worries eased. The U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index slid as well, down to -10 in April, the fourth straight month of contraction. The Australian dollar slid to a six-week low of $0.6604 before settling down 0.3% at $0.6605 after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.

☆ Dollar, yen buoyed as US banking sector fears put safe-havens back in vogue
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 following a 0.5% increase overnight. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% for the month of April. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April, data overnight showed, heightening the risk that the economy could fall into recession this year. The U.S. Richmond Fed manufacturing index slid as well, down at -10 in April, the fourth straight month of contraction. The Australian dollar was swinging between losses and gains after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.

☆ Dollar, yen buoyed as U.S. banking sector fears put safe-havens back in vogue
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar and the yen, both safe haven assets, were mostly steady after spiking higher overnight as renewed concerns over the U.S. banking sector and economy dented risk sentiment. The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major rivals, nudged 0.01% higher to 101.80 following a 0.5% increase overnight. The traditional safe-haven gained 2.6% in March amid fears of a widespread banking crisis but has lost 0.6% for the month of April. U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a nine-month low in April, data overnight showed, heightening the risk that the economy could fall into recession this year. The Australian dollar was swinging between losses and gains after data showed inflation eased from 33-year highs in the first quarter, while core inflation dipped below forecasts.

☆ Gold prices subdued as caution sets in ahead of cenbank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-24 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold headed for its second decline in three sessions as strength in the dollar and equities diminished demand for the metal as an alternative asset. Gold is highly sensitive to rising interest rates, which raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing bullion. "Some firming in U.S. Treasury yields following last Friday's flash PMI data are keeping the downward pressure on gold prices," said Yeap Jun Rong, a market analyst at IG. Gold prices dropped by more than 1% on Friday after the release of surveys that showed the U.S. and euro zone business activity gathered pace in April. Moreover, the European Central Bank is expected to hike rates by a quarter percentage point on May 4, with some likelihood for a half-point hike.

☆ Gold prices ease with Fed rate trajectory in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,001.75 per ounce, as of 0342 GMT, after rising 1% on Thursday. Gold prices have been moderating in the absence of real incoming news flow and "we really need to see some bigger pieces of information to give it that directional conviction", said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive. "Gold pushed back above $2,000/oz as the weaker economic outlook is enticing safe-haven buying," ANZ said in a note. Rate hikes raise the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold. Spot silver dipped 0.3% to $25.22 per ounce, while platinum was flat at $1,093.33 and palladium rose 0.5% to $1,594.26.

☆ Dollar snaps five-week losing streak as bets on US rate hike in May firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar slipped against the Japanese yen in early Asia trade, though it rose against most major currencies, with the U.S. dollar index edging 0.06% higher to 101.84. Rising expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May have lent some support to the greenback. "I don't think Ueda is going to change policy at his first meeting next week," said CBA's Capurso. In other currencies, the Aussie was last 0.07% lower at $0.6738, while the kiwi fell 0.12% to $0.61705. Data out on Thursday showed that New Zealand's consumer price inflation was lower than expectations in the first quarter, though it remained near historic highs.

☆ Dollar snaps five-week losing streak as bets on U.S. rate hike in May firm
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Bundles of U.S. 100 dollar banknotes arranged at the Shinhan Bank headquarters, a unit of Shinhan Financial Group Co., in Seoul, South Korea, Sept. 14, 2022. The dollar slipped against the Japanese yen in early Asia trade, though it rose against most major currencies, with the U.S. dollar index edging 0.06% higher to 101.84. Rising expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May have lent some support to the greenback. "The U.S. economy is heading to recession," said Joseph Capurso, head of international and sustainable economics at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. "I don't think Ueda is going to change policy at his first meeting next week," said CBA's Capurso.

☆ Gold prices ease with cenbank rate moves in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,992.23 per ounce, as of 0332 GMT. "Despite gold's break below $1,980 yesterday, investors were quick to snap up the quick discount and drive spot prices back above this key support level... New York Fed President John Williams said on Wednesday that inflation is still at problematic levels and the Fed will act to lower it. Rate hikes reduce non-interest bearing gold's appeal as it raises the metal's opportunity cost. Spot silver lost 0.5% at $25.12 per ounce, platinum fell 0.4% to $1,085.81 and palladium dipped 0.5% to $1,607.49.

☆ Gold prices ease with central bank rate moves in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices inched down on Thursday, after hitting a more than two-week low in the previous session, as investors grappled with the likelihood of more interest rate hikes by central banks to contain inflationary pressures. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $1,992.23 per ounce, as of 0332 GMT. "Despite gold's break below $1,980 yesterday, investors were quick to snap up the quick discount and drive spot prices back above this key support level ... Rate hikes reduce non-interest bearing gold's appeal as it raises the metal's opportunity cost. "A slew of hawkish comments from the Fed, European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank combined with stubbornly high U.K. inflation has investors second-guessing their calls for rate cuts this year," Simpson added.

☆ Asian stocks ease, dollar subdued as investors tread with caution
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-20 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.16% lower, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) was up 0.07%. China's blue-chip CSI 300 Index (.CSI300) was down 0.16%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) eased 0.22%. Traders are bracing for meetings from central banks in the next few weeks as easing worries over the banking sector brings inflation and monetary policy back into focus. In currency markets, the U.S. dollar index fell 0.039%, with the euro up 0.04% to $1.0958. The yen weakened 0.08% to 134.83 per dollar, while sterling was last trading at $1.2432, down 0.05% on the day.

☆ Gold drifts lower on firmer dollar, Fed rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies US dollar up 0.1%Markets pricing in 25 bps rate hike by Fed in MayApril 19 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged lower on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar regained some ground, while traders assessed chances of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates just once more in May before pausing. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $2,003.03 per ounce, as of 0337 GMT. The dollar index was up 0.1%, making gold expensive for buyers holding other currencies. "While that may provide an anchor for gold prices, given the recent rally and overextended technical conditions, the possibility of some unwinding (in prices) upon validation of the Fed's rate outlook may still remain on the table." Gold is considered a hedge against inflation, but higher interest rates dim the non-yielding asset's appeal.

☆ Bank chiefs move fluttering interest-rate needle
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( John Foley | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, April 19 (Reuters Breakingviews) - Bank bosses are adding some dramatic tension to the U.S. monetary policy saga. It’s a possibility rather than a prediction, but when Wall Street’s highest and mightiest opine, it pays to listen. At the same time, the bank chiefs may be talking their books. He added that interest rates of “high 5% or 6%” would be “not shocking.”JPMorgan on April 15 reported $12.3 billion of quarterly earnings, a 56% increase from a year earlier, driven by rising interest rates. Dimon has previously warned that rates could hit 6%, and said in April 2022 that the bank was prepared for “drastically” tighter monetary policy.

☆ Gold slips on firmer dollar, Fed rate outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar regained some ground, while investors assessed the chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates just once more in May before pausing. Higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal. The Fed should continue raising rates on the back of recent data showing inflation remains persistent, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Tuesday. But Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said one more hike "should be enough" before taking a step back to "see how our policy is flowing through the economy." Markets see a 95% chance of the Bank of England raising interest rates next month.

☆ Morning Bid: Markets hope China chooses to surprise on the upside
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

April 17 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been a careful start to the week in Asia with stocks and bonds little changed and the dollar holding most of Friday's bounce. The caution is understandable given the week holds updates on Chinese economic growth and global PMIs, along with the Fed's Beige book and at least eight Fed speakers. Analysts are generally optimistic for the China data given the stunning strength of recent trade figures. Goldman Sachs (GS.N) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N) had both been expected to report a drop in profit, though that might not be inevitable given last Friday's upside surprises on earnings.

☆ Want to invest in gold? Skip mining stocks, strategist says, and trade this instead
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Gold prices are up 12% this year and are now trading at $2049 per troy ounce on the New York spot price market. Gold prices typically surge if markets expect low interest rates in a high inflationary environment. The strategist expects gold prices to reach $2,200 per ounce over the next 12 months. How to trade gold Doyle's preferred method for gaining exposure to gold is through exchange-traded commodities (ETCs), which are backed by physical gold. A number of ETCs for gold exist, such as the iShares Physical Gold ETC , Invesco Physical Gold , WisdomTree Core Physical Gold , Xtrackers Physical Gold ETC , and Xetra-Gold .

☆ Gold off one-year highs as investors weigh rate hike prospects
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-17 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

SummarySummary Companies Gold prices biased for a grind higher - analystsMarkets pricing in Fed 25-bps rate hike in MayU.S. dollar up 0.1%April 17 (Reuters) - Gold prices inched higher on Monday but were off one-year highs reached late last week as mixed economic data prompted investors to reassess the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate hike trajectory and boosted the dollar. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,004.74 per ounce, as of 0353 GMT. The dollar index was 0.1% higher, making bullion expensive for overseas buyers. Other data showed households expected inflation to rise over the next 12 months. The CME FedWatch tool shows markets are pricing in a 80.9% chance of a 25 basis point hike in May.

☆ Gold set for second weekly gain as weak dollar, Fed pause bets lift appeal
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold bars are displayed at a bullion merchant's, Baird & Co., in London, U.K., on Friday, March 14, 2008. Gold prices edged higher on Friday, set for a second consecutive weekly gain, as the U.S. dollar tumbled and recent economic data prompted bets that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,044.09 per ounce, as of 0355 GMT, hovering near a one-year high reached on Thursday. The dollar index slid to a one-year low, making bullion cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, but higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal.

☆ Gold set for 2nd weekly gain on weak dollar, Fed pause hopes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-14 | by ( Kavya Guduru | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Spot gold was up 0.1% at $2,042.01 per ounce, as of 0534 GMT, hovering near a one-year high reached on Thursday. The dollar index slid to a one-year low, making bullion cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Data this week showed the U.S. producer price index in March dropped the most since April 2020, while the consumer price index rose less than expected. Gold is considered a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainties, but higher interest rates dim non-yielding bullion's appeal. Spot silver rose 0.5% to $25.90 per ounce, hitting a one-year peak earlier, while platinum gained 0.5% at $1,051.93.

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