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☆ Weekly jobless claims fall to 233,000, less than expected, in a positive sign for labor market
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Initial claims for unemployment insurance totaled less than expected last week, countering other signs that the labor market is weakening. Stock market futures, which had been negative earlier, turned sharply positive following the 8:30 a.m. In the previous week, claims had jumped by 14,000, adding to worries that layoffs are on the rise. "If you're looking for additional weakness in the labor market, you'll need to find it somewhere else." Concerns escalated over the state of the labor market following last Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which showed an increase of just 114,000 in July.

Persons: Dow Jones, Beryl, Robert Frick, nonfarm Organizations: Labor Department, Navy Federal Credit Union, Federal Reserve Locations: Michigan, Texas, U.S

☆ Dollar gains after U.S. jobless claims fall more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Japanese yen banknotes of various denominations are arranged in Kawasaki, Japan, on Friday, June 23, 2023. The dollar rose on Thursday after new U.S. labor market data showed that unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, easing fears of an imminent recession. Initial jobless claims fell to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ended Aug. 3, the Labor Department said on Thursday, suggesting fears that the labor market is unraveling were overblown. The sharp moves in the yen pushed the dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six others, including the yen, to a weekly high, before backing off. The Australian dollar rose 1.12% to $0.659, while the New Zealand dollar was up 0.25% at $0.601.

Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Eugene Epstein, Uchida, Marc Chandler, Jerome Powell, Vasu Menon, bitcoin, Ether Organizations: Labor Department, Bank of Japan's, Bannockburn Global Forex, U.S . Federal, Swiss, New Zealand Locations: Kawasaki, Japan, North America, Moneycorp, ., Bannockburn

☆ JPMorgan raises 2024 recession odds to 35%
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The bank raised its probability for a U.S. or global recession to 35% by year end, chief global economist Bruce Kasman told clients in a Wednesday note. Meanwhile, JPMorgan kept its odds for a recessionary period by the second half of 2025 at 45%. But traders got better news on the labor market front on Thursday, with the volume of weekly jobless claims coming in lower than economists expected. To be sure, despite raising his odds, Kasman said investors should not assume all signs point to a recession. In fact, Kasman described his increase to near-term recession risk as modest.

Persons: Bruce Kasman, Kasman, Goldman Sachs Organizations: JPMorgan, Federal, Fed Locations: U.S

Stocks ticked up Friday as the stock market built on its incredible comeback from Monday's violent rout. The broad market index ended the week just shy of completely reversing its weekly losses. The S&P 500 advanced 0.47% to finish at 5,344.16. Week to date, the broad market index was just 0.04% lower. The Dow on Monday tumbled 1,000 points, while the S&P 500 lost 3% for its worst day since 2022.

Persons: Stocks Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Dow, Federal Reserve

☆ Why Jay Powell refuses to be bullied by Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The whole episode underscored a fundamental tension between the Fed, which is focused on economic stability, and Wall Street, which is focused on profit. The message from Powell and other policymakers is clear: We won’t be strong-armed by Wall Street. The BOJ’s deputy governor, Shinichi Uchida, citing volatility in financial markets, said the bank would not raise its policy interest rate as long as markets remain unstable. Powell (formerly in finance, hazel eyes, great ties) appears to have a real opportunity to Volcker it up even more in the coming weeks. That gives Wall Street plenty of time to sit in the corner and deal with its feelings.

Persons: CNN Business ’, Summer, Tim Walz’s, Jerome Hayden Powell, Here’s, Powell, ”, Powell’s, It’s, Paul Volcker fanboy, Shinichi Uchida, Mohamed El, “, Volcker, quieting, Powell isn’t Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Finance, Federal, Stock, CNBC, Wall, Bank of Japan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, FiDi, Powell, Japan

☆ Dow closes nearly 700 points higher after latest jobless data brings better news for America’s labor market
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-08 | by ( Lucy Bayly | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —US stocks surged Thursday after new data on the labor market suggested that the economy may not be headed into the downward spiral that traders feared. First-time claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to 233,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised total of 250,000, according to Department of Labor data released Thursday. “Anything in that range tends to suggest a fairly healthy labor market,” wrote economist Joseph Brusuelas on X Thursday morning. Weekly jobless claims data can be highly volatile and is frequently revised. Fears of a downturnThe latest jobs numbers come as Wall Street attempts to bounce back from a market plunge that was mostly triggered by the weaker-than-expected July jobs report.

Persons: ”, Joseph Brusuelas, Chris Larkin, ” Larkin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Dow, Nasdaq, of Labor, of Labor Statistics Locations: New York

☆ Gold buoyed by Fed rate-cut hopes, geopolitical concerns
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices firmed on Wednesday on mounting bets of U.S. interest rate cuts in September and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with markets awaiting U.S. economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve's interest rate path. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $2,399.38 per ounce, as of 11:29 a.m. Bullion is considered a hedge against geopolitical and economic uncertainties and tends to thrive in a low interest rate environment. Meanwhile, China's central bank held back on buying gold for its reserves for a third straight month in July, official data showed on Wednesday.

Persons: Everett Millman, Bart Melek, they're, Millman Organizations: Co, Gainesville, TD Securities Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, U.S, Israel, China's, China

☆ No sign of U.S. recession in freight demand, CEO of shipping giant Maersk says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Shipping giant Maersk, considered a barometer for global trade, is not seeing signs of a U.S. recession as freight demand remains robust, the company's chief executive said Wednesday. "We've seen in the last couple of years, actually, [the shipping container] market remaining surprisingly resilient to all the fear of recessions that there has been," Vincent Clerc told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" Wednesday, adding that container demand was generally a good indicator of underlying macroeconomic strength. The last week has seen a sudden escalation in worries about a recession in the world's biggest economy, the U.S., following a set of weaker-than-expected jobs data which has divided economists and market participants. U.S. retail trade inventories — a measure of unwanted build — in May were up 5.33% from a year ago at $793.86 billion, according to the most recent release from the U.S. Census Bureau. A report released by leasing platform Container xChange on Wednesday said indicators suggest inventories are higher than demand, meaning a less "prosperous time" in the coming months for container traders, the logistics market and retailers who stockpiled.

Persons: We've, Vincent Clerc, CNBC's, Clerc Organizations: Shipping, Maersk, U.S . Census Locations: U.S

☆ Yen dives as BOJ plays down chance of hikes, soothing markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A Japanese 10,000 yen and a U.S. 100 dollar banknote juxtaposed against each other in Tokyo, Japan, on Monday, June 20, 2016. The yen dropped on Wednesday after an influential Bank of Japan official played down the chances of a near-term rate hike, soothing investors' concerns that a further jump in the Japanese currency could again rock global markets. The yen fell around 2.5% to a session low of 147.94 per dollar following the comments from BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida. "I think it's become increasingly clear that the BOJ hawkish turn last week could be a policy error," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. The yen's decline was broad based, with the Mexican peso, New Zealand dollar and Australian dollar - all carry trade candidates - surging against the currency.

Persons: Shinichi Uchida, Uchida, Kazuo Ueda's hawkish, it's, Alvin Tan, inching, Rong Ren Goh Organizations: Bank of Japan, Asia FX, RBC Capital Markets, U.S, Eastspring Investments, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Tokyo, Japan, Asia

☆ Japan got so spooked by Monday's market meltdown that it's now playing cool on more interest-rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +1 min

Stocks are rising after Monday's meltdown as Japan assured it will not hike rates if markets are unstable. Some analysts say BOJ's recent rate hike triggered Monday's sell-off as traders unwind yen carry trades. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Just last week, the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates and struck a hawkish stance that signaled more increases ahead following years of ultra-low and even negative rates. On Wednesday, Shinichi Uchida, a deputy governor at the Bank of Japan, said the central would not hike interest rates when the financial and capital markets are unstable.

Persons: —, Shinichi Uchida Organizations: Service, Bank of Japan, Business Locations: Japan

☆ These high-dividend-yielding stocks could see a rebound as rates decline, BMO says
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-07 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Now could be a good time to start buying stocks with high dividend yields, according to BMO Capital Markets. The highest-paying S & P 500 stocks have significantly underperformed the index over the last year and a half, even with the rebound they've enjoyed in recent months, said chief investment strategist Brian Belski. They are rated outperform by the firm's analysts and fall within the top 25% of S & P 500 stocks by dividend yield. Digital Realty Trust, which pays a 3.28% dividend yield, owns, develops and operates data centers — which are expected to see surging demand thanks to AI . Host Hotel & Resorts, which owns luxury and upper-upscale hotels, has a 4.92% dividend yield and is down 16% so far this year.

Persons: they've, Brian Belski, Belski, AbbVie Organizations: BMO Capital Markets, Federal, Fed, BMO, Pfizer, pharma, AbbVie, Cerevel Therapeutics, American Electric Power, Southern Company, Utilities, Digital Realty Trust, Host Hotels, Resorts Locations: Southern

☆ Markets are counting on the Fed to head off recession with sizeable interest rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jeff Cox | Jeff Cox Is A Finance Editor With Cnbc.Com Where He Covers All Aspects Of The Markets | Monitors Coverage Of The Financial Markets | ) www.nbcnews.com time to read: +5 min

Disappointing economic data recently generated worries that the Fed missed an opportunity at its meeting last week to, if not cut rates outright, send a clearer signal that easing is on the way. In the past, the Fed has implemented just nine such cuts, and all have come amid extreme duress, according to Bank of America. Lacking a catalyst for an intermeeting cut, the Fed is nonetheless expected to cut rates almost as swiftly as it hiked from March 2022-July 2023. Why wait?”LaVorgna, though, isn’t convinced the Fed is in a life-or-death battle against recession. Still, any quakes in the data, such as Friday’s downside surprise to the nonfarm payrolls numbers, could ignite recession talk quickly.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Steven Blitz, ”, Andrew Hollenhorst, ‘, ’ ”, Michael Gapen, Powell, Joseph LaVorgna, “, “ They’ll, isn’t, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg Organizations: Federal Reserve, TS Lombard, Fed, Citigroup, Bank of America, Nikko Securities, Rosenberg Research Locations: Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Nikko

☆ Bitcoin rises slightly as crypto and other risk assets look to rebound from sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Tanaya Macheel | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Cryptocurrencies on Tuesday recovered some of the previous day's losses after bitcoin briefly fell under $50,000 for the first time in six months. The price of the flagship cryptocurrency was last higher by 3.5% at $55,051.74, according to Coin Metrics. Markets broadly bounced early Tuesday, including stocks tied to the price of bitcoin. Coinbase , MicroStrategy and mining companies Marathon Digital and Riot Platforms all added about 2% each in premarket trading. The sell-off took place as crypto traders were caught in a storm of carry traders unwinding their positions, heightened concerns about a U.S. economic recession, escalating tensions in the Middle East and increasing uncertainty about the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.

Persons: bitcoin, cryptocurrency Organizations: Metrics, Marathon, U.S

☆ Squeeze on carry trades leave currency markets on edge
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The Japanese yen and U.S. dollar on display in Yichang, Hubei province, Nov 13, 2023. The yen was 1% lower on Tuesday at 145.78 per dollar in early trading, after rising for five straight sessions and touching a seven-month high of 141.675 on Monday. "Sell-offs that manifest themselves through wild swings in the currency markets are sharp and swift, but usually very short lived," said Jamie Cox, managing partner at Harris Financial Group. "Markets are clearly nervous about the divergent paths central banks are taking, leading to lots of volatility." The dollar index , which measures the U.S. unit versus six rivals, was flat at 102.87 in early trading after touching a seven-month low of 102.15 on Monday.

Persons: Jamie Cox, James Athey, undervaluation Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Federal, Harris Financial, Traders, Bank of Japan, Marlborough Investment Management Locations: Yichang, Hubei province, recessionary, Japan, Switzerland, Tokyo

☆ Crude oil futures fall for fourth day as recession fears outweigh rising Middle East tensions
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Spencer Kimball | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Crude oil futures fell for the fourth session in a row Tuesday, as recession fears continue to overshadow the risk of a major escalation in the Middle East. U.S. crude oil closed at a six-month low on Monday, after equity markets sold off on fears that the U.S. economy might tip into a recession. The fear of a U.S. recession has hit oil markets as traders were already worried already about lackluster demand in China, the world's second-largest economy. Here are Tuesday's energy prices:Oil markets have sold off despite the growing risk of major escalation in the Middle East. The oil market has largely looked past geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as crude supplies have not faced any major disruption.

Persons: Ismail Haniyeh, Daniel Yergin Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, NBC, P Global Locations: East, U.S, China, Israel, Iran, Tehran, Iraq

☆ Why an emergency rate cut would be a mistake for the Fed, according to Mohamed El-Erian
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The Fed would be making a mistake in delivering an emergency rate-cut, Mohamed El-Erian said. Traders see a higher chance the Fed could trim rates over the next week in response to weakening data. AdvertisementThe Federal Reserve would be making a mistake if it delivered an emergency rate cut. Amid Monday's sell-off Bloomberg reported that markets see a 60% chance the Fed could issue a cut ahead of its scheduled policy meeting. AdvertisementGiving in to the market's demands to ease monetary policy would constitute another mistake for the Fed, El-Erian said.

Persons: Mohamed El, Erian, —, Ben Kirby Organizations: Bloomberg, Traders, Service, Fed, Thornburg Investment Management Locations: El

☆ These fortress stocks can protect investors' portfolios as volatility rips through Wall Street
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Brian Evans | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Monday's global markets sell-off saw Wall Street's "fear gauge" spike to its highest level since 2020, but there are a few stocks that may help investors stabilize their portfolios in these volatile times. Coterra has a beta of 0.23, the lowest on the list of stocks assembled for this screen. While the company's second-quarter adjusted earnings missed Wall Street's estimates, Coterra's production for the period came in ahead of analysts' expectations. Coterra shares also offer investors income, paying a dividend yield of 3.4%. Major Wall Street firms said a recent pullback in shares — which are off 4% in the past week — presented a buying opportunity for investors.

Persons: Coterra, — Organizations: Dow Jones, CNBC Pro, CNBC, Energy, Microsoft, LSEG, Wall, Deere, Omnicom Locations: U.S

☆ A bullish options trade on a tech recovery after the latest sell-off
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Nishant Pant | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

We saw another EMA crossover in May, signaling the end of the pullback and the start of a new bull run. July 2023 : Although the majority of the current correction unfolded in August, the EMA crossover signal had already appeared in July. For example, in May 2023, waiting for the EMA crossover would have meant missing out on 4.6% of the move. The trade setup: QQQ bull call spread To take a bullish trade on QQQ, I will be using a trade structure called a "bull call spread." For example, if QQQ is trading at $440 at the time of the EMA crossover, one could consider buying a 440-441 call spread.

Persons: bullish, Nishant Pant Organizations: Nasdaq, Corrections, Trust, EMA, ITM, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: QQQ

☆ Everything you wanted to know about the market meltdown but were too afraid to ask
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +9 min

In today's big story, we're giving a full breakdown of what has been a wild few days for the market . Tech: Big Tech is going through a bit of a mid-life crisis . Big Tech is going through a bit of a . There are a few factors at play here:Big Tech, the backbone of the market, had weaker-than-expected earnings last week. The decision could seriously hurt Google's revenue and may signal more antitrust enforcement to come for other Big Tech companies .

Persons: —, Airbnb, Rebecca Zisser, We're, what's, Warren Buffett's, Berkshire Hathaway, I'm, Claudia Sahm, M, Getty, Jenny Chang, Rodriguez, Jensen Huang, Citadel's Ken Griffin, Griffin, it's, Natalie Ammari, That's, Elon, Dan DeFrancesco, Jordan Parker Erb, Hallam Bullock, Annie Smith, Amanda Yen Organizations: Service, Business, Tech, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Apple, Oracle, Fed, Nvidia, Bank of America, Google Locations: Japan, Berkshire, Omaha, Asia, bitcoin, Florida, New York, London

☆ The stock market is panicking, but you don’t have to
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

To be sure, the carnage on Wall Street and in equities markets around the world was real. But Monday’s panic was the Wall Street equivalent of a tantrum from a kid who just got told they can’t have ice cream for dinner. But don’t let the stock market drama fool you: The US economy is still in good shape, despite some turbulence. “And I’m not too worried about Wall Street becoming poor.”Stocks looked to bounce back Tuesday. Wall Street worked itself into a lather when ChatGPT came out two years ago.

Persons: CNN Business ’, Stocks, Dow, Wall, don’t, Rana Foroohar, That’s, it’s, Goldman Sachs, ”, Jan Hatzius, ” Goldman, There’s, Beryl, “, Beryl didn’t, Aaron Sojourner, ’ ”, ChatGPT, Rob Haworth, ” Haworth Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, CNN, Nikkei, of Labor Statistics, Coast, BLS, WE Upjohn, Employment Research, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Fed, Federal, Markets, Big Tech, Nvidia, Microsoft, Wall, Bank of Japan, US Bank Locations: New York, Japan

☆ 'Babies tossed out with the bath water': Why top strategists aren't scared during the wildest market since March 2020
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Related storiesWhile those concerns served as the kindling, it was the July jobs report that sparked terror. A closer look at the jobs report reveals that while job additions underwhelmed, jobless claims were also minimal. AdvertisementSecond-quarter earnings growth has been impressive so far and seems set to rise by low single digits, according to UBS GWM. The bullish strategy chief remarked in a note Monday that six of the 11 market sectors have enjoyed double-digit earnings growth this quarter, while only three have seen declines. "Such sell-offs can offer an opportunity to 'catch babies tossed out with the bath water,'" Stoltzfus wrote.

Persons: —, Oppenheimer, Jonathan Golub, Oppenheimer Jason Draho, Americas Solita Marcelli, Marcelli, Beryl, Draho, That's, David Lefkowitz, John Stoltzfus, Stoltzfus Organizations: Service, Business, UBS, UBS Global Wealth Management, Labor, UBS GWM Locations: Americas

☆ Gold nudges higher on mounting U.S. rate cut bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An employee handles one kilogram gold bullions at the YLG Bullion International Co. headquarters in Bangkok, Thailand, on Friday, Dec. 22, 2023. Gold prices edged higher on Tuesday after comments from Federal Reserve officials reinforced expectations of bigger U.S. interest rate cuts later this year. Spot gold was up 0.1% to $2,408.77 per ounce as of 0354 GMT. Fed San Francisco President Mary Daly said her mind was open to cutting interest rates as necessary and policy needed to be proactive. Meanwhile, Japanese stocks opened higher, underpinning a recovery across battered Asian share markets and even triggering circuit breakers in some.

Persons: Mary Daly, Soni Kumari Organizations: Co, Federal Reserve, San, ANZ, Traders Locations: Bangkok, Thailand, U.S, San Francisco, China

☆ Stock market today: US indexes try to claw back deep losses after 3-day meltdown
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Max Adams | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

With little data on the horizon, investors will look to Thursday's jobless claims for more clue about the economy. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementUS stocks rallied on Tuesday as shaken investors looked to claw back some of the losses incurred in a historic three-day rout. Jobless claims on Thursday will be the next clue about the health of the labor market. If weekly claims come in well past the 245,000 estimated by economists, it could spark another decline for stocks.

Persons: —, they're, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Dow, Service, Nasdaq, Bank of America

☆ A widely followed recession signal just flashed, but its inventor says a downturn isn't guaranteed
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Madison Hoff | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

"The US economy is still growing," said Claudia Sahm, the chief economist at New Century Advisors, a former Federal Reserve economist, and the creator of the Sahm rule. Despite rebuking the idea that the US is in a recession, Sahm does have concerns about the labor market and high interest rates. Advertisement"The most important lever to pull is to normalize interest rates," Sahm said, joining a chorus of economists who say the Federal Reserve has waited too long to cut interest rates. The Fed decided to hold interest rates steady in its July meeting at the end of the month. It's not surprising that the labor market has cooled after the booming post-pandemic recovery.

Persons: —, Claudia Sahm, Sahm, It's, it's Organizations: Service, New Century Advisors, Federal Reserve, Business, Fed

☆ JPMorgan says the carry trade that pummeled markets is only half done
▼ + stars: | 2024-08-06 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The unwinding of the carry trade that's battered stocks in recent days isn't done, JPMorgan says. It says that trade is probably only half over, as Japan looks poised to continue raising rates. AdvertisementThe "carry trade" unwind that helped spark the bloodbath in US stocks over the past few days likely isn't close to over, a JPMorgan strategist says. Market commentators say that's been partly stoked by a surprise 15-basis-point interest-rate hike in Japan, which triggered some investors to unwind a trade that's become popular in recent years. In this trade, investors borrow cheap yen and deploy the cash into higher-yielding assets elsewhere, like US stocks.

Persons: —, Arindam Sandilya, that's, Sandilya Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, FX, Bloomberg, Bank of Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan

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