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☆ China's skidding factory sector taps brakes on economic recovery
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Ellen Zhang | Ryan Woo | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING (Reuters) -China’s factory activity unexpectedly contracted in April as orders fell and poor domestic demand dragged on the sprawling manufacturing sector, a private survey showed on Thursday, imperilling the broader economic outlook for the second quarter. China Daily via REUTERSThe Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in April from 50.0 in March. The latest PMIs may lower expectations for the economy in the second quarter, said Zhou Hao, economist at Guotai Junan International. “But to what extent the economic recovery momentum will weaken, the market is not sure,” Zhou said. “The manufacturing sector will be under pressure in the second quarter, and won’t get any relief at least until June.”

☆ China's factory activity skids in April on weak demand - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Reuters Staff | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

BEIJING (Reuters) - China’s factory activity unexpectedly dipped in April, a private sector survey showed on Thursday, due to softer domestic demand and suggesting the manufacturing sector is losing momentum amid a bumpy post-COVID economic recovery. FILE PHOTO: Employees work on a production line manufacturing metal parts for furniture at a factory in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China April 30, 2020. China Daily via REUTERSThe Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 49.5 in April from 50.0 the previous month prior. The reading echoes a similarly disappointing official PMI released on Sunday and reflects the uneven nature of China’s economic recovery, with services consumption, a key growth driver in the first quarter, outperforming manufacturing. “This suggests that China’s economic recovery significantly slowed after COVID-19 infections peaked at the start of this year,” said Wang Zhe, economist at Caixin Insight Group.

SummarySummary Companies Shell, Equinor shares outperform sector indexRivals BP, Chevron, Exxon also beat expectationsOil and gas prices slumped in first quarterShell shares up 2.1%, Equinor up 2.7%LONDON/OSLO, May 4 (Reuters) - Energy giants Shell (SHEL.L) and Equinor (EQNR.OL) reported higher-than-expected first-quarter profits on Thursday, using the heft of their trading desks to offset lower oil and gas prices. The stronger-than-expected profits from the two companies follow forecast beating results from rivals Exxon Mobil (XOM.N), Chevron and BP over the past week. Shell's shares were up around 2.1% in early trading and Equinor shares rose around 2.7%, outperforming a European index of oil and gas companies (.SXEP) which was up around 1%. Benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $81 per barrel in the first three months of the year, down 16% from a year earlier and 7% from the fourth-quarter. Lower natural gas prices also weighed on Shell's giant integrated gas business, with profits slumping 18% on the quarter.

☆ Opinion | Politics Can’t Fix What Ails Us
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( David French | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +3 min

I’ve been watching this phenomenon as well, and wrote my own, similar piece, back in 2021. But it’s worth contemplating in part because it is but one of multiple significant negative cultural changes that doesn’t seem to have clear political solutions. Most Americans report significant feelings of non-belonging. Friendship and religious membership had declined for both groups, but the decline was much more pronounced for those with no college education. I don’t want this newsletter to be too depressing, but there are many more similarly disheartening social statistics.

☆ How to trade Volkswagen and BMW quarterly earnings results based on history
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Ganesh Rao | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

German carmakers Volkswagen and BMW are set to announce their first-quarter earnings later today. Similarly, Volkswagen reported significantly increased deliveries for the same period despite weaker business in China, its most important single market. The stock also surpassed the benchmark by 5.4 percentage points a week since the results and 6.5 percentage points a month out under the same scenario. However, its fortunes reverse for the better, with shares outperforming the benchmark after a week since the results 67% of the time. The German company shares beat the DAX by 1, 3, and 8 percentage points over the day, week, and month since the results, respectively, on exceeding expectations.

While the Dow Jones Industrial Average 's year-to-date move into the red on Thursday may signal more choppy, range-bound trading ahead, technical analysts say they don't think it's an omen for new multi-year lows. Chart experts say the closely followed blue-chip Dow Jones average could test long-term moving averages. .DJI YTD mountain The Dow Failing to hold above its 200-day moving average of 32,707 could mean more downside ahead for the 30-stock average, said JC O'Hara, chief technical strategist at Roth MKM. "On average the stocks have an aggregated [earnings] surprise of nearly +10%, but the stocks are not being rewarded," O'Hara said of earnings season for Dow stocks thus far. Now, the Dow is the only one of the three in the red on the year as investors favor growth stocks over value.

☆ Berkshire Hathaway is outperforming during turmoil, but Warren Buffett's favorite child Geico is in trouble
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Berkshire Hathaway shareholders attending this year's meeting will want to know more about the company Warren Buffett once called his "favorite child" – the auto insurer Geico. With tens of thousands of shareholders in attendance, Berkshire's annual "Woodstock for Capitalists" will be held in Omaha, Nebraska on Saturday, the second in-person gathering since 2019. "I think it's the biggest issue out there at the moment is really Geico," said Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust and a Berkshire shareholder. Geico, until recently, wasn't involved in telematics," Jain said at Berkshire's 2022 meeting. Geico represents one area of weakness for Berkshire, which overall has been beating the broader market.

☆ A.I. enthusiasm is responsible for the bulk of the stock market’s gain this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Digging deeper into the gains, Nvidia turns up as a big winner. Meta Platforms shares have doubled. If the Fed signals a pause Wednesday and rates fall, the market could see tech stocks rip higher. To be sure, other factors besides for AI have contributed to this year's rally in technology stocks. Jason Tauber, a portfolio manager at Neuberger Berman said AI stocks should start to experience bifurcation from here on out.

☆ Singapore's banking trio 'outperforming pretty well,' SGX strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-02 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSingapore's banking trio 'outperforming pretty well,' SGX strategist saysGeoff Howie, markets strategist at the Singapore Exchange, says "the grip that macro trends are having on … important sectors is dissipating somewhat."

☆ ON Semi jumps after results while Nvidia hits 13 month high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

May 1 (Reuters) - ON Semiconductor's (ON.O) shares jumped 7% on Monday after the chipmaker's quarterly guidance beat Wall Street's expectations, spurring other chip stocks with heavyweight Nvidia (NVDA.O) hitting its highest level in over a year. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index (.SOX) climbed 0.7%, outperforming the Nasdaq's (.IXIC) 0.1% rise. Nvidia, the world's most valuable chipmaker, climbed 3.5% to its highest since March 2022. Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC.O) rose 1.8% ahead of its quarterly report expected after the bell. The Philadelphia chip index has rebounded nearly 40% from its closing low in October 2022, but is down 25% from its high in 2021.

☆ Morgan Stanley's top strategist says second half profits will disappoint — so own these stable growers
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-01 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Investors are in for a rocky second half of the year, so it's time to take a look at stable earnings growers, says Morgan Stanley's top strategist Mike Wilson. It's also rooted in the view that companies broadly have already right-sized expenses and that margin expansion can now take hold," Wilson wrote to clients on Monday. In this uncertain climate, the strategist said he prefers stocks with stable earnings. They are: Coca-Cola surfaced on Morgan Stanley's list for stable earnings growers. UnitedHealth Group was identified as a stable earnings grower.

By comparison, less than 5% of companies mentioned AI in analyst calls held during the first quarter of 2016. Big Tech mentions jump AI has been a growing theme in Big Tech as companies try to capitalize on the wave following 2022's selloff. In calls from Big Tech companies alone, AI was mentioned 265 times. Executives at real estate company UDR said its AI chat has a 10% higher closing rate than normal call centers. Interpublic Group of Companies CEO Philippe Krakowsky noted the advertising company brought on a chief AI officer two years ago.

☆ Earnings playbook: The second half of the season kicks off with Apple, Ford and a pharma giant
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-30 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

What history shows: Data from Bespoke Investment Group shows Pfizer beats earnings expectations 87% of the time. Ford Motor is set to report earnings after the close, followed by a call at 5 p.m. What history shows: Ford earnings outperform earnings expectations 69% of the time, per Bespoke. AMD is set to report earnings after the close, with management scheduled to hold a conference call at 5 p.m. Friday Warner Bros Discovery is set to report earnings before the open, followed by a conference call at 8 a.m.

☆ Just a few stocks are behind the market's recent resilience. A real concern or routine rotation?
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

After Friday's 0.8% lift, the S & P 500 is just a sliver below its Feb. 2 year-to-date high. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500 YTD The same dynamic is happening at the sector level, too. JP Morgan this year is outperforming the equal-weighted S & P 500 financials by 13 percentage points. "While breadth is bad, the S & P 500 is actually one of the weakest indices in the G7," he says. By the way, the top-heaviness of the index also extends to valuation: The equal-weighted S & P 500 is nearer to 15-times earnings.

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Recession worries simmer beneath US stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - Economically sensitive areas of the U.S. stock market are flashing warnings over growth, even as major equity indexes edge higher. Beneath the surface, however, areas of the market tied to economic sentiment such as transports, semiconductors and small-cap stocks dropped in April, while so-called defensive sectors are outperforming. “People are starting to more defensively position themselves,” said Aaron Dunn, co-head of the value equity team at Eaton Vance. "They are talking about demand being down and they are ridiculously important shipping companies,” said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. Reporting by Lewis Krauskopf; Editing by Ira Iosebashvili and David GregorioOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

A five-year average one-day gain of 0.5% or more after reporting The stocks have beaten earnings expectations 75% of the time over a five-year period. It beats earnings expectations by a median of 16.06% over 10 years. Shares of Garmin stock has gained 5.8% so far in 2023, and the company will report earnings on May 3. The company beats earnings expectations by 3.58% over a five-year period, while beating overall 85% of the time over the same timespan. The company also has an unblemished record over the past five years, beating earnings expectations 100% of the time.

☆ Actively managed funds come with unique risks and rewards. Here's how investors can pick a winner
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Sarah Min | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Still, actively managed funds can have a better chance of outperforming during periods of volatility. Actively managed funds have historically underperformed passive strategies, but 2022 was a better year than most for stock pickers . As investors navigate another uncertain year in markets, actively managed funds could add differentiated performance to their portfolios – if traders choose carefully. Actively managed funds can help diversify portfolios, but investors will have to do their due diligence, she said. Other interesting strategies within actively managed funds include long-short and total return strategies, according to Bellis.

☆ Premarket stocks: ESG investing is dead. That's not a bad thing.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

A new, more efficient system is taking shape that incorporates ESG standards into the bedrock of stock valuations, he said. ESG investing as a separate entity could be on its way out, but the approach was wrong to begin with, said Jenkins. Instead, a confluence of political, geopolitical and market events has severely damaged interest in ESG investing. Increased scrutiny also played into political differences around ESG investing and opened the door to vocal critics. Responsible investing funds also came up against mighty economic headwinds last year.

☆ STMicroelectronics posts better-than-expected Q1 results
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Martin Coulter | ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, April 27 (Reuters) - European chipmaker STMicroelectronics (STM.DE) reported better-than-expected first-quarter results on Thursday. The company's revenue jumped 20% year-over-year to $4.25 billion in the quarter, outperforming analysts' average estimate of $4.19 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv Eikon. Citing a favorable business environment, CEO Jean-Marc Chery said the company was aiming for full-year revenue of $17 billion to $17.8 billion, keeping it on course for its target of $20 billion by 2027. STMicroelectronics's first-quarter earnings of $1.10 per share, also beat analysts' average forecast of $0.99 per share, IBES data showed. Net income rose about 40% year-over-year to $1.04 billion in the quarter.

☆ Russian oil sanctions appear to be working - crude still flows even as Moscow's pulling in less money. But there's more to it than that.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-27 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

I spent much of yesterday parsing through pages of data on where Russian oil is heading and how much buyers are paying for barrels. Today we're unpacking two less obvious observations about Russian oil. That said, researchers pointed out that most of the Western companies still facilitating Russian oil shipments don't actually abide by the $60-a-barrel price cap that the EU and G-7 imposed. Ships carrying Russian oil, according to Argus, indeed make a premium for doing what they do, but that premium has shrunk over the last month. In effect, the "sanctions premium" isn't what it was a month ago.

☆ Danone raises sales outlook as shoppers absorb price hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Dominique Vidalon | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

PARIS, April 26 (Reuters) - Danone (DANO.PA), the world's largest yoghurt-maker, raised its 2023 outlook on Wednesday after it managed to pass on increased costs through price rises and first-quarter sales growth was the fastest in a decade. Danone, which expects prices to peak this year and also anticipates productivity gains, kept its forecast for a moderate improvement in recurring operating margin for the year. The maker of Activia yoghurt, Evian water and Aptamil infant milk said it expected like-for-like 2023 sales growth of between 4% and 6%, having previously forecast 3%-5% growth. Danone increased its prices by 10.3% during the quarter while sales volume remained positive, up 0.2%. In China, Infant Nutrition, and also Adult and Pediatric Specialties made a particularly strong start to the year with double-digit growth.

HONG KONG, April 26 (Reuters) - Standard Chartered PLC (StanChart) (STAN.L) on Wednesday said first-quarter profit jumped 21%, beating expectations, as rising interest rates buoyed income from its cash management and retail banking businesses. The earnings update showed how rising central bank rates have boosted revenue, as StanChart charged borrowers more interest while not passing all of the increase to depositors. StanChart, which earns most of its revenue in Asia, said January-March statutory pretax profit reached $1.81 billion. That compared with $1.49 billion a year earlier and the $1.43 billion average of 14 analyst estimates compiled by the bank. The bank said it saw signs of stabilisation in China's troubled commercial real estate market, with no increase in credit impairment from the previous quarter.

☆ 'The risk of recession is far from priced in': JPMorgan warns stocks are set up for a 'bearish outcome' as investors crowd into the top names in the market at rates last seen in the 2000 and 2008 bubb
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Investors are crowding into the biggest stocks in the S&P 500 at levels seen in prior bubbles. On a surface level, the S&P 500 looks like it's having a stellar start to 2023. The chart below shows crowding levels in low-volatility stocks, which investors seek in recessionary environments. If the US economy continues to avoid a recession, stocks could be well positioned to continue their gains this year. But many strategists believe a downturn — or at least a pullback in earnings — will drag the S&P 500 down to its October 2022 lows, or worse.

☆ Mike Dever has a 40-year track record of outperforming various markets by rejecting conventional wisdom. He told us 4 ways investors can mimic his approach today.
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( Marley Jay | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Mike Dever is the founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management and author of "Jackass Investing." Over the course of four decades in investing, Michael Dever has learned that the bedrock of most people's beliefs about the stock market are faulty. Investing in stocks and bonds is adequate portfolio diversification? Dever says investors cost themselves a lot of money every year by falling for phony conventional wisdom, and that there's a better way to invest. Investors also accept limits on how much profit they'll make, but an investor who's concerned about a market downturn might see that as a worthwhile trade.

☆ Goldman Sachs shares exactly how to invest right now to profit this year — even as uncertainty and a banking crisis hurt economic growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-26 | by ( James Faris | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

But that unusual calm in markets may be masking serious concerns about economic growth, according to David Kostin, the chief US equity strategist at Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs"Mixed economic data and uncertainty around banking stress have led the equity market to downgrade its pricing of the US economic growth outlook in recent weeks," Kostin wrote. Goldman Sachs' GDP estimate (the blue-gray columns) is higher than that of the consensus (the black dots). Another sector Goldman Sachs is bullish on is energy, even though it's economically sensitive. Goldman Sachs is also neutral on the following sectors and industries: software & services, financials, consumer discretionary (excluding autos & durables), utilities, real estate, and consumer durables & apparel.

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