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☆ Next week promises any debt deal relief may prove short-lived with jobs report, Fed decision looming
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

"The overhangs on the market this year [are] the debt ceiling negotiation, hawkish Fed commentary and a banking crisis. It appears we are going to get a debt ceiling deal over the weekend, which should help the market to stabilize." The problem for many on the Street is the action in the S & P 500 Tech Index, up more than 5% this week; the Nasdaq Composite , ahead about 2.5%; and the S & P 500 , with a 0.3% gain, masks so much weakness beneath the surface. The S & P 500 consumer staples, materials, health care and utilities were all down between 2.4% and 3.2% this week, and the Dow Industrials were lower 1%. Although the S & P 500 is 9.5% higher so far in 2023, only a few stocks are doing well. "

☆ Gold hits 2-month low on debt talks progress, rate hike bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A one kilogram gold bar sits on top of silver bars at London bullion dealers Gold Investments in London, United Kingdom, on April 4, 2013. Gold slid to its lowest in two months on Thursday as optimism around the U.S. debt ceiling talks lowered safe-haven demand for bullion and robust economic data fueled bets of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Spot gold was 0.6% down at $1,944.45 per ounce, having hit its lowest since March 22. White House and Republican negotiators made some progress in late-night talks over raising the debt ceiling, top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy said. "A rather impressive round of economic data suggests this economy is still showing so much resilience ... the argument for possibly delivering another rate hike is gaining steam here," Moya added.

Persons: Gold, Kevin McCarthy, Edward Moya, Moya, Ross Norman Organizations: London, Investments, Federal Reserve, White House, Republican, OANDA, Fed Locations: London, United Kingdom

☆ Premarket stocks: Will the debt ceiling debate finish the Fed's inflation fight?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-24 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —Over the last 14 months, the Federal Reserve has taken a deliberate and economically painful approach to combating elevated inflation rates through interest rate hikes. The regional banking crisis and a possible debt-ceiling induced default on US debt could change all of that. What’s happening: There are two policy options that the Fed can use to address elevated inflation. For the first quarter, Lowe’s said overall sales fell 5.5% to $22.3 billion. Home Depot missed on first quarter sales and lowered its outlook for the year after customers slowed their spending.

Persons: shouldn’t, ”, Laurence Ball, Edward Boehne, Jerome Powell, Ben Bernanke, Powell, Ball, there’s, Austan Goolsbee, “, Julian Brigden, Bernanke, ” Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Bryan Mena, Blanchard, David Goldman, Parija, Lowe’s Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Johns Hopkins University, ” Former Philadelphia Fed, Fed, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Yahoo Finance, Partners, International Monetary Fund, Brookings Institution, Target, Walmart, Home Depot Locations: New York, ”, Washington ,, America, California

☆ Gold ticks up as traders navigate U.S. debt limit hitch, Fed cues
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Pure 1,000-gram gold bars produced by South Korea's LS-Nikko are stacked in a dealers room in Seoul on January 9, 2009. Gold prices edged up on Monday as drawn-out discussions around the U.S. debt ceiling and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's less-hawkish comments added to the safe-haven bullion's appeal. Spot gold was up 0.1% at $1,978.06 per ounce as of 0347 GMT, while U.S. gold futures eased 0.1% to $1,979.40. Markets are now pricing in a 86.2% chance of the Fed standing pat on rates next month, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Spot silver fell 0.2% to $23.77 per ounce, platinum eased 0.1% to $1,061.68 and palladium dipped 0.3% to $1,508.54.

☆ Could the Fed raise rates again in June?
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Traders saw a roughly 36% chance last Thursday that the Fed will raise rates by another quarter point in June, up from around 15.5% on May 12, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Traders pared down their expectations to about a 18.6% chance that the central bank will raise rates next month, as of Friday evening. Experts seem to agree that the Fed is unlikely to raise rates again in June. Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors, also expects the Fed to hold rates steady in June. Dimon said in the same Bloomberg interview that he’d “love to get rid of the debt ceiling thing” altogether.

☆ Dollar gains as debt deal hopes rekindle hawkish Fed bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

That eased fears of an unprecedented and economically catastrophic default, leading markets to revise their expectations of where U.S. interest rates could go. The euro fell to a more than seven-week low of $1.0760, while the U.S. dollar index rose 0.07% to 103.57, flirting with Thursday's two-month high of 103.63. "It does remove one obstacle to the Fed continuing to raise rates." U.S. Treasury yields have climbed on the back of the hawkish Fed repricing and amid a pick up in risk sentiment. The two-year Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, last stood at 4.2510%, while the benchmark 10-year yield was last at 3.6402%.

☆ Asian stocks inch up on US debt ceiling hopes, Nikkei hits 33-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) rose 0.66%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) continued its ascent, rising to its highest since August 1990, during the country's so-called bubble era. Futures indicated European stocks were set to open higher, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.44%, German DAX futures up 0.41% and FTSE futures up 0.23%. China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) rose 0.20%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) was up 0.13%, having reversed from earlier losses. Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.029% and was wedged near a two-month high.

☆ Asian shares mixed as China growth worries crimp U.S. debt ceiling optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.20% but was set to eke out a gain of 0.19% for the week. Data in the week underscored that China's economy lost momentum at the beginning of the second quarter, stoking worries over the wobbly post-COVID-19 recovery. Investor attention has been firmly on the negotiations over U.S. debt ceiling and increasing hopes that a deal could be reached sent U.S. shares higher overnight . Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. U.S. crude fell 0.14% to $71.76 per barrel and Brent was at $75.78, down 0.11% on the day.

☆ Dollar buoyed by hawkish Fed expectations as debt deal eyed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 19 (Reuters) - The dollar firmed near a six-month peak against the yen on Friday on the back of rising U.S. Treasury yields, as optimism over debt ceiling talks in Washington raised expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates. The news helped calm fears of an unprecedented and economically catastrophic American debt default, leading markets to revise their expectations of where U.S. interest rates could go. The dollar stayed elevated in early Asia trade on Friday and last bought 138.40 yen , having risen to a near six-month high of 138.75 yen in the previous session. U.S. Treasury yields have climbed on the back of the hawkish Fed repricing and amid a pick up in risk sentiment. The two-year Treasury yield , which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations, last stood at 4.2581%, edging away from a low of 3.964% at the start of the week.

☆ Markets next week may keep thinking about what could go right
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

At least that's the thinking of a small but growing chorus of voices on Wall Street who outline the case for further stock market gains after both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched nine-month highs this past week. The VIX was trading around 16-17 late this week, signaling no great fear among professional traders. Walmart and other retailers this week highlighted consumers are spending less freely, but they're still spending , and that drives two thirds of the economy. Even Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote late this week that he has to entertain what could go right in markets, despite the fact his own view is fundamentally bearish. If that "upside scenario" happens, UBS sees global stocks moving 13% higher by the end of December, and the S & P 500 surging another 6% — to north of 4,400.

☆ Gold listless as U.S. debt talks dominate market mood
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold bullion bars are pictured after being inspected and polished at the ABC Refinery in Sydney on August 5, 2020. Gold prices were little changed on Thursday as the dollar held firm and optimism over U.S. debt-ceiling talks chipped away at the metal's safe-haven appeal. The dollar index traded near a seven-week high reached in the previous session, making gold less affordable for overseas investors. U.S. President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy on Wednesday underscored their determination to reach a deal soon to raise the federal government's $31.4 trillion debt ceiling and avoid an economically catastrophic default. The decline in silver so far this month "could be closer to some tentative stabilization," Wong added.

☆ Asian shares muted, US debt ceiling talks weigh on risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - Asian shares were subdued on Wednesday and the dollar hovered around a five-week peak as investors remained risk averse, with the U.S. debt ceiling talks and a mixed set of economic data weighing on sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was down 0.09% in choppy trading, with Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) down 0.45%. Democratic President Joe Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy edged closer to a deal to avoid a looming U.S. debt default Tuesday. After an hour of talks, McCarthy, the speaker of the House of Representatives, told reporters the two sides remained far apart on an agreement to lift the debt ceiling. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.01% to 102.61, inching closer to the five-week high of 102.75 it touched on Monday.

☆ Asian shares tentative, US debt ceiling talks weigh on risk appetite
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

SINGAPORE, May 17 (Reuters) - Asian shares were subdued on Wednesday and the dollar hovered around a five-week peak as investors remained risk averse, with the U.S. debt ceiling talks and a mixed set of economic data weighing on sentiment. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.20% lower, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) was down 0.56%. U.S. stock indexes closed down overnight, hamstrung by dour forecast from Home Depot and April U.S. retail sales data that underscored softer consumer spending. "These actually came in on the lower end of expectations though the news was mixed, with a lower headline but higher core sales figures muddying the message." Recent economic data indicates slowing in the U.S. economy following a string of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to fight high inflation.

☆ Gold holds ground amid U.S. debt-ceiling jitters
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Gold prices steadied on Wednesday, as investors fretted over prolonged U.S. debt-limit negotiations, with a firmer dollar keeping prices in check. Spot gold ticked up 0.1% to $1,991.35 per ounce by 0455 GMT. Rival safe-haven dollar, meanwhile, held firm on the day, making gold less appealing for overseas buyers. "Any inflation-fighting rhetoric from Fed officials between now and the June meeting would hinder the gold price," Waterer further said, adding, the prevailing dollar strength was capping gold's upside for the time being. Spot silver rose 0.1% to $23.76 per ounce after hitting a six weeks low in the previous session.

☆ Gold ticks higher as economic risks persist
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Gold prices edged higher on Monday as the U.S. debt ceiling stalemate and concerns of an economic slowdown steered some traders towards the safe-haven metal. Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,014.44 per ounce by 0432 GMT, after falling for three sessions. Bullion tends to gain during times of economic or financial uncertainty, but higher interest rates dim non-yielding gold's appeal. Markets are pricing in an 83.4% chance of the U.S. central bank holding rates at the current level in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool. But taking some shine off gold, rival safe-haven dollar rose to a five-week high against major peers and made bullion less affordable for buyers holding other currencies.

☆ Debt ceiling crisis hangs over markets, with investors hoping to avoid a repeat of 2011
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-13 | by ( Matthew J. Belvedere | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

Republicans, led by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, want to attach spending cuts to any agreement to raise the debt ceiling. Biden and the Democrats say they are willing to talk about spending cuts but only outside the debt ceiling discussions. Raising the debt ceiling would allow the government to pay for spending that has already occurred. That year, the debt ceiling was raised at the last minute but not before a summer of bickering sent the S & P 500 down 17% from late July to mid-August. The market this past week stumbled with the debt ceiling deadline looming and over concern about regional bank failures.

☆ Stocks stumble in jittery mood ahead of US inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

S&P 500 futures were steady and European futures rose 0.1%. "That's the thing that'd get taken out if CPI numbers come in on the higher side," said ING economist Rob Carnell. "It doesn't look particularly sensible if inflation is falling at too slow a rate and that could feed through into higher longer-term treasury yields as well." Interest rate futures imply about a 60% chance the Federal Reserve cuts rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch tool. "But the debt ceiling drama, and market participants’ focus on rate cuts is unlikely to change much from one CPI report.

☆ Markets think the odds of a Fed rate cut in July are almost 50% after April CPI showed inflation cooling more than expected
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-10 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation in April increased by less than anticipated, spurring further bets the Federal Reserve will start rate cuts this summer. Odds of a cut in July rose to 45.9% on Wednesday from 29.3% a day earlier. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues last week ushered in their 10th consecutive rate increase as inflation remains above their 2% target. The Fed funds rate at 5%-5.25% stands at the highest since 2007. Inflation appears unlikely to rev higher again, which means the most likely scenario for monetary policy is the Fed remaining on hold, said Zaccarelli.

☆ Dollar on rates-watch as traders wait on loans data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The yen slipped slightly, reflecting Friday's move higher in U.S. bond yields that followed strong jobs data. "But for the time being, the market is likely to run with the theme of a peak in Fed rates justifying a clear peak in the dollar." The U.S. dollar index dropped for a second week in a row last week, losing about 0.4%. "There is a risk that regional bank issues could escalate, posing a broader risk to the financial system and taking the dollar (higher)," said Standard Chartered's head of G10 FX research, Steve Englander. "We think that the escalation of debt-ceiling concerns is a more likely source of risk-off dollar strength via demand for immediate dollar liquidity."

☆ Shares rise, dollar weakens on bank sector fears
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

SINGAPORE, May 5 (Reuters) - Asian stocks rose, the dollar eased and gold hovered around its record highs on Friday, as jittery investors remained nervous about the U.S. banking sector following another rout in shares of regional lenders. Wall Street ended lower on Thursday after Los Angeles-based PacWest Bancorp's (PACW.O) move to explore strategic options deepened fears about the health of U.S. lenders as pressure grows on regulators to take more steps to shore up the country's banking sector. Shares of U.S. regional banks sank this week in the wake of the collapse of First Republic Bank over the weekend that has brought back fears of a financial sector crisis. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised interest rates by 25 basis points, but hinted that its marathon hiking cycle may be ending. China shares (.SSEC) rose 0.21%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) was up 0.6%, helping lift the region's shares.

☆ Elite investors and fund managers at the legendary Milken conference warn of a recession and credit crunch
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Elite money managers overseeing trillions of dollars convened at the 2023 Milken Global Conference in Los Angeles this week. The consensus was clear: they think markets are mispositioned for a scenario where the central bank keeps rates higher for longer. "As our chief economist likes to say," Hunt said, "at higher rates, bodies will continue to float to the top over the course of the summer." And with yet another Fed rate hike officially in the books, financial conditions are only going to get tighter and more companies could be caught off-guard. On Wednesday, West Texas crude dropped more than 4.4%, the steep declines coming the same day as the Fed's rate hike.

Though stocks remain near their 2023 highs, some investors now believe those factors will soon start taking a greater toll, limiting further upside. The market may be "back in the soup on the banking crisis," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services. Many investors don’t expect that calm to continue, as a battle over raising the $34 trillion U.S. debt ceiling looms. In the six rate-hiking cycles since 1984, the S&P 500 has posted an average three-month return of 8% following the peak funds rate, Goldman Sachs strategists wrote. However, the S&P 500 is already trading well above its valuation at the end of any cycle except the one ending in 2000, when the S&P 500 declined despite a Fed pause, the bank said.

☆ Homebuilder ETFs could get another boost if the Fed stops after one more rate hike
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Mortgage rates are tied indirectly to the Fed through the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, and could still move around while the central bank is paused. The ETFs that track the industry have already outperformed this year, rebounding from dramatic declines in 2022. The rapid Fed rate hikes last year appeared to spook consumers, who saw their future monthly payments climb sharply just while they were in the midst of searching for new homes. ITB YTD mountain Homebuilder ETFs like the ITB have outperformed in 2023. And a relatively stable interest rate outlook should make it easier for the homebuilders to hit those raised estimates, according to their own executives.

☆ FOMC: Takeaways from the Federal Reserve's May meeting
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

This time around, the central bank’s meeting occurred two days after First Republic Bank failed. “Conditions in the sector have broadly improved since early March, and the US banking system is sound and resilient,” he said. “These tighter credit conditions are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring and inflation,” Powell said. “The extent of these effects remains uncertain.”A key federal report on lending conditions, the Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, will come out on May 8, Powell said. “So we’ll be driven by incoming data, meeting by meeting, and we’ll approach that question at the June meeting.”A complicating element in that evaluation will be the amount of credit tightening and to what extent that acts as another interest rate hike, he said.

☆ Dollar in defensive mood after jobs data; Fed in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-03 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in Chicago on October 18, 2022. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six rivals, eased 0.029% to 101.820 after sliding 0.245% on Tuesday. "If the difference in rates between the two regions become clearer, DXY (dollar index) may fall below the 100 mark." The kiwi rose 0.35% versus the greenback to $0.623, while sterling was last trading at $1.2479, up 0.12% on the day. The Japanese yen strengthened 0.11% to 136.40 per dollar, clawing back some of its losses from last week when the Bank of Japan stuck to its ultra-loose monetary policy.

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