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PIMCO economist Peder Beck-Friis says that high US debt levels do not pose an immediate threat. Before that happens, volatility will rise in financial markets and the macro economy, he noted. AdvertisementInvestors shouldn't fear US debt crisis just yet, as the situation is more benign than it appears, PIMCO econmist Peder Beck-Friis wrote on Thursday. In an op-ed in The Financial Times, Beck-Friis wrote that investors will need to prepare for higher instability before policymakers treat the debt seriously. Like many other big-name market observers, he argued that the aggressive rise in the US debt will eventually hit unsustainable levels.
Persons: Peder Beck, Friis, , PIMCO econmist Peder Beck, Beck, Bill Gross, Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton Organizations: Financial Times, Service, Financial, US Locations: Washington, Europe
Tragedy strikes and traders (or trading algorithms) sniff out a way to make money off of it. Stocks also went on a tear as Covid-19 killed millions and gutted economies across the globe. “The market’s up today, but the market’s up every day,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, tells me. Whether or not the political bump lasts, some traders did seize on the moment to double down on so-called Trump trades. In short, when the yield curve gets steeper, that’s a sign bond traders are nervous.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Stocks, it’s, Steve Sosnick, Sosnick, , , Trump, Reagan, Coinbase, Elon Musk, Sturm Ruger, he’s, Joe Biden —, ” Sosnick, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN — Financial, Dow, Interactive, Trump, White, Macquarie, Trump Media, Smith, Wesson, Democratic, Treasury Locations: New York
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar fell 0.18% to $0.6771, while the New Zealand dollar slid 0.35% to $0.6097. Under a Trump presidency, market analysts expect a more hawkish trade policy, less regulation and looser climate change regulations. Against the dollar, the yen was last 0.3% lower at 158.36, having strengthened to a roughly one-month high of 157.30 per dollar on Friday. "The confirmed FX intervention undertaken by the MOF in April and May proved that policymakers are prepared to be canny about choosing the timing of their moves," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank. "In order to make more 'bang for their buck', FX intervention in quiet conditions or after the release of softer U.S. economic data seems like a sensible move.
Persons: Donald Trump, Jack Ablin, It's, Trump, Rong Ren Goh, Jane Foley Organizations: Trump, Cresset, New Zealand, Eastspring Investments, Cash U.S, Investors, . Bank of Japan, Finance, Analysts, Rabobank Locations: Asia, Japan, U.S, Tokyo
If elected, Donald Trump has promised to maintain the dollar as the world's reserve currency. But his policies risk deteriorating faith in the greenback, according to one think tank. At number 13, the former president pledged to keep the US dollar in place as the world's main reserve currency. But a second Trump term might actually erode greenback's dominant role, wrote Mark Sobel, US chair of the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum. During his first term, Trump threatened to leave NATO and took the US out of key agreements, such as the Iran nuclear deal, Paris Climate Accord and Trans-Pacific Partnership, Sobel wrote.
Persons: Donald Trump, OMFIF, , Donald Trump's, Mark Sobel, Sobel, Trump, Biden Organizations: Service, Republican National, Trump, Monetary, Financial, Treasury, Social Security, NATO, Paris Climate Accord, Pacific Partnership Locations: Iran, Paris
Now almost 57, Murillo, who lives in the Chicago area, has a net worth of over $1.1 million and is on pace to reach financial independence within three years. AdvertisementShe developed a plan to pay off her debt, saving roughly 40-50% of her net income of between $120,000 and $140,000. Murillo is one of many Americans who started their financial independence journeys later in life but are on pace to meet their early retirement goals. AdvertisementBy the time he turned 50, he and his wife had a net worth of almost a million. AdvertisementBy 47, she reached a million in net worth, which was about 25 times her expenses.
Persons: , Gina Murillo, Murillo, I'd, Gen Xers, Bill Yount, Yount, what's, He's, Jackie Cummings Koski, could've Organizations: Service, Business, FI, Vanguard, Walmart, LexisNexis, FIRE Locations: Chicago, Tennessee, South Carolina, Ohio
Add to that the noise surrounding the US election, and it could be a rougher second half. Central Banks in Canada and the eurozone have both cut interest rates, but inflation rose in both of those regions last month. Australia, meanwhile, saw its inflation rate rise to 4% this week, stoking fears that the Reserve Bank of Australia could soon move to raise rates again. It was already well known that no documentation was found to show who worked on the door plug. Without the bolts, the door plug incident was pretty much inevitable.
Persons: London CNN —, they’ve, Michelle Bowman, she’s, Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, stoking, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, , José Torres, Torres, wouldn’t, Joseph Stiglitz, Trump, Trump’s, Max, , Al Michaels, Michaels, Peacock, ” Michaels, , CNN Michaels, Read Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, London CNN, Federal Reserve, foibles, San Francisco Fed, Chicago Fed, Central Banks, Reserve Bank of Australia, Interactive Brokers, Treasury, Trump, Peterson Institute, Oxford Economics, Allianz, CNN, Boeing, Alaska, Alaska Airlines, National Transportation Safety Board, Alaska Air, NBC, Summer Games, Olympics Locations: London, Canada, Australia, Renton , Washington, Paris,
Yields and prices move in opposite directions and one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading around 4.211% at 6:29 a.m. The 2-year Treasury note yield was down 1 basis point at 4.679%. U.S. Treasury yields fell again on Friday as data released this week pointed to easing inflation. Correction: A previous version misstated the magnitude of a decline in the 10-year Treasury note yield.
Persons: Henry Allen, — Jeff Cox Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Rabobank, Deutsche Bank, U.S . Federal, US, University of Michigan
Online high-yield savings accountsThe best bang for your savings can still be had in online high-yield savings accounts at FDIC-insured banks, which yield way more than today’s 0.58% overall average savings rate. As of June 11, the average online savings account rate was 4.40%, according to DepositAccounts.com. If you leave it parked in a regular savings account at 0.5%, you’ll get $50 in interest for a year. As with any savings account, banks can lower the rate they offer — also known as the APY — at any time. Money market accounts and money market fundsMoney market deposit accounts and money market mutual funds are generating yields competitive with the best high-yield savings accounts.
Persons: , , Greg McBride, ” McBride, you’ll, , McBride, , Collin Martin, Martin Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, National Credit Union Share Insurance, Securities Investor Protection Corporation, Treasury, Fed, Schwab Center, Financial Research Locations: New York, Schwab.com, United States
Technology stocks have dominated the market for more than a decade. However, strong outperformance in tech may begin to spread to other sectors of the stock market, according to BofA. Here are four reasons tech stocks' dominance could end later this year, according to the bank. AdvertisementThe technology sector's dominance over the stock market could finally end later this year, according to Bank of America. Advertisement"As earnings accelerate outside of Tech, investors will likely become more price sensitive and seek out cheaper earnings growth," Subramanian said.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, Subramanian, COVID Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Tech, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Bank of, Technology, Communication Services, Nvidia, hyperscalers Microsoft, Rockwell Automation, ROK Locations: Tech, China, Japan
The investing environment is loaded with risks, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. AdvertisementStock market investors are facing the risk of huge losses as the economy slows, and there are five rules they should follow to prepare for future headwinds, according to elite forecaster Gary Shilling. The stock market's setup also looks troubling. Shilling has advised investors in Chinese stocks to switch to Indian assets for months, citing factors like better economic growth prospects and population growth. AdvertisementShilling has maintained a notably bearish view on stocks and the economy, despite more investors warming up to the possibility of soft landing.
Persons: Gary Shilling, , Shilling, Steer Organizations: Service, Stock, Reserve, Nvidia Locations: China, India
U.S. one hundred dollar bills are being shown in this picture illustration taken in Buenos Aires, Argentina, on Dec. 15, 2023. The dollar soared to a two-week high against its major peers on Thursday, as a rout in Treasuries improved the currency's allure due to both higher U.S. yields and demand for safe haven assets. The bond market rout has spooked investors, with equities globally sliding sharply this week, spurring a rush to the safest assets. The yen , however, climbed off a four-week low of 157.715 per dollar from overnight to last trade at 157.505. "The bond market bogey is well-positioned to wrest deeper control of the broader market, particularly if upcoming growth and inflation data are on the firmer side of the ledger."
Persons: Tony Sycamore Organizations: Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan, Reserve, IG Locations: Buenos Aires, Argentina, Treasuries, U.S
"Our bitcoin treasury strategy and purchase of bitcoin underscore our belief that bitcoin is a reliable store of value and a compelling investment," Eric Semler, Semler's chairman, said in a statement. The stock soared 30% Tuesday, while bitcoin traded lower by about 2%, according to Coin Metrics. Semler, which has a market capitalization of about $210 million, is down more than 30% this year. Semler Scientific , a little-known medical technology company, saw its shares surge Tuesday after it said it has adopted bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset, taking a page out of MicroStrategy's playbook. This February, the company said it would shift its company focus and brand to bitcoin development.
Persons: Eric Semler, bitcoin, MicroStrategy, Semler Organizations: Metrics, Semler
Gold and silver bars of various sizes lie in a safe on a table at the precious metals dealer Pro Aurum. Gold prices have been rallying to record highs, with spot gold notching a new top of $2,449.89 per ounce on Monday. Silver too hit multi-year highs earlier last week, as did industrial metal copper. Spot gold is currently trading at $2,351.3. "While geopolitical risks continued to bolster haven demand, an impressive rise in China's gold demand in Q1 2024 has largely fueled the price rally," ANZ's strategists wrote.
Persons: Silver, that's, Joni Teves, CNBC's Organizations: Aurum, U.S ., Treasury, ANZ, India, World Gold, UBS, U.S . Federal, Metals Locations: U.S, China
New York CNN —Major business leaders and economists are worried about America’s growing debt problem. Last week, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon expressed fear that a crisis is looming and that unchecked deficit spending could explode. The big picture: Between the Trump-era tax cuts and Covid-era stimulus programs, the national debt has exploded in recent years. Trump Media (DJT) reported a loss of $327.6 million during the first three months of the year, compared with a loss of $210,300 a year earlier. The company generated just $770,500 of revenue, marking the second-straight quarter where its revenue totaled less than $1 million.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, , ” Dimon, , Ray Dalio, Columbia Business School Glenn Hubbard, Joe Biden’s, Jason Thomas, Carlyle, ” Thomas, Hanna Ziady, Liz Truss, Treasuries, Hubbard, Thomas, it’s, Donald Trump, Matt Egan, Devin Nunes, Martin Gruenberg, Elisabeth Buchwald, ” Gruenberg, Sen, Sherrod Brown,  Gruenberg, He’s, Cleary Gottlieb Steen, Gruenberg’s, Gruenberg Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN —, JPMorgan, Sky News, Financial, Columbia Business School, United, CNN, IMF, Congressional, Office, Peterson Foundation, Treasury, Trump Media, Trump Media & Technology Group, Truth Social, Company, Big Tech, ” Trump Media, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Senate Banking Committee, FDIC, Hamilton Locations: New York, Bridgewater, United States, , United, United Kingdom
London CNN —The chorus of voices warning about the dangers of record US government debt is growing louder. In the past 24 hours, JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio, founder of the world’s biggest hedge fund, have weighed in with concerns about America’s debt pile. Ray Dalio, the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York in April 2024. Dimon acknowledged that debt-fueled government spending, including pandemic stimulus, had been one of the reasons behind robust growth in the world’s biggest economy. Debt servicing costs have also soared, on the back of higher official interest rates, leaving less money for public services.
Persons: Jamie Dimon, Ray Dalio, Dimon, you’ll, Dalio, I’m, , Victor J, we’ve, ” Dimon, Liz Truss Organizations: London CNN, JPMorgan, Sky News, Treasury, Financial Times, International Monetary Fund, Congressional, Office, Bridgewater Associates, Bloomberg Television, Bloomberg, Getty, Treasury Department, IMF, US, Federal Locations: Russia, New York, America, Covid, United, United Kingdom
Dollar sags as slower U.S. inflation boosts rate cut expectations
  + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The dollar skidded to multi-month lows on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit its slowest in three years and retail sales turned flat, which pulled forward expectations for rate cuts in the world's biggest economy. The dollar skidded to multi-month lows on Thursday after U.S. core inflation hit its slowest in three years and retail sales turned flat, which pulled forward expectations for rate cuts in the world's biggest economy. Stocks and other risk-sensitive assets such as the Australian dollar led gains in the wake of the data release. The New Zealand dollar hit a two-month high at $0.6131. Softer-than-expected retail sales figures, which were flat last month instead of the 0.4% gain that economists had forecast, reinforced the newfound confidence in rate cuts.
Persons: Sterling, Bart Wakabayashi, China's, Bitcoin Organizations: Australian, New Zealand, U.S, State, European Central Bank Locations: Asia, Tokyo, Treasuries
See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage Refinance Rates TodayMortgage type Average rate today This information has been provided by Zillow. See more mortgage rates on Zillow Real Estate on ZillowMortgage CalculatorUse our free mortgage calculator to see how today's interest rates will affect your monthly payments. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesThis week's average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 7.09%, according to Freddie Mac. 15-Year Fixed Mortgage RatesAverage 15-year mortgage rates inched up to 6.38% this week, according to Freddie Mac data. Mortgage rates increased dramatically over the last two years, but they're expected to go down at some point this year.
Persons: Fannie Mae, you'll, Freddie Mac, it's Organizations: Zillow, Federal Reserve Locations: Chevron
What's more, Xi Jinping has told the Chinese military to prepare for war and said that reunification with Taiwan is inevitable. But not everyone thinks a Chinese military move is necessarily imminent. If China was actively preparing for a near-term invasion of Taiwan, Kennedy said there are a few things he might expect to see first. AdvertisementIf China does invade, the global economic impact would be huge, and despite its efforts to secure its economy, China would likely be far from unscathed. "Any action against Taiwan would be disastrous for China's economy," Chilukuri said.
Persons: , Vivek Chilukuri, Scott Kennedy, It's, Chilukuri, Xi Jinping, China's, Jinping, Kennedy, he'd Organizations: Service, Business, West, Center, New, New American Security, Center for Strategic, International Studies Locations: China, Southeast Asia, Europe, US, Taiwan, New American, United States, Russia, Ukraine, Hong Kong
Dollar nurses losses after another set of soft jobs data
  + stars: | 2024-05-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +4 min
Against the Japanese yen, the dollar was trading at 155.39 yen , down from highs of 155.95 hit in the previous session. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was flat at 105.25. "We note jobless claims are weekly data that can be very volatile from week to week," Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Joseph Capurso, said in a note. "The BoE's urgency and willingness to cut ahead of the Fed will continue to weigh on the currency," Goh said. Being added to the list makes it harder for U.S. suppliers to ship to the targeted entities.
Persons: Commonwealth Bank of Australia's Joseph Capurso, Shunichi Suzuki, Rong Ren Goh, Sterling, BoE, Goh Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, dovish Bank of England, Commonwealth Bank of Australia's, Tokyo, Japan's Finance, Eastspring Investments, Bank of England, Monetary, Committee, Fed, Treasury, Traders, PPI, Federal Locations: U.S, United States
For the 27th straight year, some of the brightest minds from across the business world descended on Beverly Hills in early May to attend the Milken Institute Global Conference. But while speculation stole headlines, Milken speakers spent much of their time fixated on the state of the US economy. But despite continued concerns about stagflation, Milken speakers overwhelmingly expressed confidence about economic growth at a May 6 session called "Global Markets at Inflection." "The economy is still extremely strong, consumers are still doing really well, businesses are still doing really well," Scharf said. Though far from perfect, the US is still the best place to investDespite the $34.7 trillion anvil hanging over the economy, Milken speakers widely agreed that the US is still the best place to invest and operate a company.
Persons: Elon Musk, he's, Milken, Wells, Franklin Templeton, Gerard Baker, Andre Esteves, Jenny Johnson, Charlie Scharf, Scharf, we've, it's, you've, hasn't, Sam, Joshua Friedman, Anne Walsh, Friedman, Esteves, they've, Johnson, " Scharf, Wells Fargo Organizations: Milken Institute Global, SpaceX, Business, Milken, The, Consumers, Starbucks, Canyon Partners, Investors, Guggenheim Investments, Milken Institute Global Conference, US Locations: Beverly Hills, Wells Fargo, Brazil, McDonald's, Washington
Arone spoke with Before the Bell to outline three things about markets right now “that investors should know, but probably don’t.”1. You write that investors might be surprised to hear that small- and mid-cap stocks have outperformed large-cap stocks over the past five months. Why do you think that’s surprising, and what does it say about markets? Most investors think that the S&P 500 has been outperforming everything else, largely dragged up by the performance of the Magnificent 7 (Amazon, Tesla, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia). The big beneficiaries of that, I think, would be a surprise for most investors — those mid-cap stocks and small-cap stocks.
Persons: , Michael Arone, Arone, That’s, that’s, Jerome Powell, I’m, Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, Buffett, Greg Abel, Ajit Jain, Munger’s, Read, Parija Kavilanz Organizations: New, New York CNN, Wall, Federal Reserve, Bell, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Treasury, Fed, Berkshire Hathaway, Oracle, Ikea Locations: New York, Berkshire, Woodstock, Nebraska, Omaha
Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway grew its cash pile to a record $189 billion last quarter. Berkshire dumped a net $17 billion of stocks, and boosted its buyback spend to $2.6 billion. The famed investor's Berkshire Hathaway raised its stockpile of cash and Treasury bills by $21 billion to a record $189 billion — a 13% increase in just three months. Related storiesThe centibillionaire and his team only spent $2.7 billion on stocks last quarter, while they dumped $20 billion worth, marking their largest quarterly disposal in several years. AdvertisementBerkshire's net stock sales totaled $24 billion in 2023, which was a big turnaround from its purchase of $34 billion of stocks on a net basis in 2022.
Persons: Warren, Berkshire Hathaway, , Buffett, NetJets Organizations: Berkshire, Service, BNSF Railway, Travel Centers Locations: Woodstock
Stocks and the economy look strong but there are four factors that could pose a problem, Capital Economics said. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and high interest rates are big risks to markets. A depreciation of the Chinese yuan and soaring US debt are also the two factors investors need to watch. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Thirdly, with the rising value of the Chinese yuan, any depreciation could trigger currency market volatility elsewhere.
Persons: , Ruben Gargallo Abargues, Jonas Goltermann, Wednesday's, Goltermann, Bill Gross Organizations: Economics, Service, Capital Economics, Brent Locations: Israel, Treasuries
Sell in May and go away? Think again
  + stars: | 2024-05-02 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +6 min
New York CNN —It’s “sell in May and go away” season. All three major indexes broke five-month winning streaks as hotter-than-expected inflation data stoked fears that interest rate cuts will come later than forecast. The central bank kept interest rates on hold at a 23-year high at its policy meeting. Persistent inflation has kept long-anticipated rate cuts on the backburner. Tesla “has let our entire charging org go,” William Navarro Jameson, strategic charging programs lead at Tesla, wrote on X.
Persons: Stocks, Jerome Powell, , Alex McGrath, Larry Tentarelli, Bryan Mena, it’s, Read, Tesla, Tesla “, ” William Navarro Jameson, Lane Chaplin, Hanna Ziady, Peter Valdes Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, The, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Wednesday, Traders, Blue, Carson Group, Research, Federal Reserve, Fed, Motors, Ford, Tesla Locations: New York
New York CNN —Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy decision will likely be pretty boring for investors — officials are widely expected to keep interest rates the same, just as they have since July 2023. They think that the Fed may curtail its quantitative tightening (QT) program — that’s the selling off of its assets to decrease money supply and increase interest rates — by as much as half. Those purchases ended up pushing down interest rates in certain parts of the economy, like housing and auto sales. That led to a “repo crisis”, where the interest rates for overnight loans between banks spiked unusually high. That’s because a taper should send bond prices higher, and interest rates lower.
Persons: there’s, Jamie Dimon, Jerome Powell doesn’t, Krishna Guha, Marco Casiraghi, , Bill Adams, Biden, reclassify, General Merrick Garland, Xochitl Hinojosa, , Nancy Mace, Earl Blumenauer, ” Read, Zhao, Allison Morrow, ” Binance Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Fed, JPMorgan Chase, Comerica Bank, Bank of America, CNN, US Department of Justice, Federal Register, Congress, Associated Press, Republican, CZ, Binance, Bloomberg Locations: New York, South Carolina, Oregon, Seattle
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