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Investors haven't become super pessimistic on stocks since the recent volatility bout began. Specifically, the firm's Crowd Sentiment Poll — a gauge for intermediate market sentiment — shows excessive optimism among investors after dipping to neutral last month. NDR's nearer-term daily trading composite, meanwhile, points to more neutral sentiment. Wall Street is also anxiously looking ahead to the U.S. presidential election in November. So bottom line: It may take another bout of selling to shake out the weak bullish investors and restart the long-term trend.
Persons: Ned Davis, London Stockton, Goldman Sachs downgrades, Morgan Stanley, Richard Ramsden Organizations: Ned Davis Research, London, Reserve, U.S Locations: NDR's
Market Navigator: Natural gas indicated to the upside
  + stars: | 2024-09-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailMarket Navigator: Natural gas indicated to the upsideKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss options for trading natural gas to the upside.
Persons: Katie Stockton
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: DVN, Katie Stockton Organizations: Devon Energy, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: Devon
Oil prices climbed more than $1 on Tuesday, paring the previous day's loss as concern that an escalating Middle East conflict could hit supplies outweighed fear of a possible U.S. recession that could hurt demand in the world's biggest oil consumer. Oil's slide was limited by worry that Iranian retaliation for the assassination of a Hamas leader in Tehran may lead to a wider war in the Middle East. "Increased fear of escalating Middle East conflict prompted fresh buying," said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, president of NS Trading, a unit of Nissan Securities . "The market has largely factored in a retaliatory attack by Iran so the focus is on its scale and Israel's counterattack," Kikukawa said. If the conflict escalates, oil prices will rise, but if it is contained in the short term - as it was in April amid similar escalation fear - gain will be limited, he said.
Persons: paring, Hiroyuki Kikukawa, Kikukawa, Antony Blinken, Masoud Pezeshkian, Vladimir Putin Organizations: Brent, U.S, West Texas, NS, Nissan Securities, State Department, Reuters, OPEC Locations: Fort Stockton , Texas, Tehran, Iran, Israel, U.S, Iraq, Russia, Venezuela
Data released Friday showed 114,000 jobs were created last month, far below a Dow Jones estimate of 185,000. The S & P 500, accounting for Monday's expected losses, will be down around 9% from its recent high. She sees support emerging for the S & P 500 around the 5,000 level, or another 6.5% from here. If market conditions get very dire in the meantime, there is a chance the Federal Reserve could step in, investors hope. "The fed funds rate right now should be somewhere between 3.5% and 4%," he said .
Persons: Dow Jones, Katie Stockton, There's, Stockton, CNBC's, Jeremy Siegel, They've Organizations: Nikkei, Federal, Wharton Locations: Japan, U.S
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA seasonal correction and momentum to the downside has begun: Fairlead Strategies' Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, what to make of the market sell-off, and more.
Persons: Katie Stockton Katie Stockton
Prepare for a new high-volatility market regime
  + stars: | 2024-08-05 | by ( Katie Stockton | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +8 min
A spike in the VIX of this magnitude has not occurred since 2020, when the COVID-19 related decline in the S & P 500 was maturing. We believe another high-volatility regime is upon us, with the prolonged low-volatility regime that preceded it coming to an abrupt halt. If our long-term trend following measures were to deteriorate behind the S & P 500, we would be more inclined to reduce exposure. A rebound in the S & P 500 (i.e., a VIX pullback) can be used to hedge partial exposure from a top-down perspective. Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only.
Persons: It's, Katie Stockton Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: drugmaker, VTRS, Katie Stockton Organizations: CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities
Oil prices were up slightly on Friday on stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data that raised investor expectations for increasing crude oil demand from the world's largest energy consumer. But concerns about soft economic conditions in Asia's biggest economies, China and Japan, capped gains. At the same time, inflation pressures eased, which kept intact expectations that the Federal Reserve would move forward with a September interest rate cut. Lower interest rates tend to boost economic activity, which can spur oil demand. Still, continued signs of trouble in parts of Asia limited oil price gains.
Organizations: Brent, . West Texas, Commerce Department, Reuters, Federal Reserve Locations: Fort Stockton , Texas, China, Japan, U.S, Asia
During earnings season, we can gain value from the charts by judging how stocks react to their reports. We are especially mindful of support and resistance levels, watching for breakouts and breakdowns as technical catalysts. This supports upside follow-through for IQV in the weeks ahead towards resistance from a Fibonacci retracement level near $258. We ultimately expect the stock to retest final resistance, near $285, with a long-term time horizon. Long-term support on the chart is defined by the weekly cloud model, which rises to roughly $215 next month.
Persons: Katie Stockton, Will Tamplin Organizations: IQVIA Holdings, IQV, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: IQV
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: DAL, Katie Stockton Organizations: Delta Air Lines, DAL, DeMARK, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities
Does President Biden realize how angry some voters in Michigan are — specifically, Arab Americans? Opinion Video traveled to Dearborn to understand voter sentiment in a population that has the power to sway the election. Michigan has over 200,000 registered voters who are Muslim — enough to swing the state. (Biden won Michigan by 154,000 votes in 2020.) Just finding a pro-Biden Arab American voter in Dearborn is not an easy task.
Persons: Biden, , Wissam Charafeddine Organizations: Michigan, Biden Arab Locations: Michigan, Dearborn, Detroit, U.S
Despite the pullback, a primary uptrend remains in place for the CAC 40, in addition to the related iShares MSCI France ETF (EWQ) . Both proxies for French stocks appear to be finding their footing, which suggests that the market is welcoming the latest news regarding the election. Once the final outcome is determined, it would be natural for investors to respond favorably to the removal of uncertainty, particularly given the oversold status of French stocks. This suggests a counter-trend phase of outperformance is possible for French stocks versus U.S. stocks. Recent stabilization in many French stocks shows a positive reaction to widespread intermediate-term oversold conditions, which we gauge using the weekly stochastic oscillator.
Persons: LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton, Katie Stockton Organizations: CAC, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL Locations: France, EWQ
US stocks jumped to record highs ahead of key economic data releases this week. AdvertisementUS stocks jumped to record highs on Monday ahead of key economic data scheduled for this week. Investors will be keenly focused on the June consumer price index report on Thursday, with Core CPI expected to rise 3.1% year-over-year, compared to May's CPI report of 3.3%. More inflation data will be released on Friday with the release of the June PPI report, which is expected to rise 0.1% on a month-over-month basis. The new inflation data will help inform investors and the Federal Reserve about the path of interest rates for the rest of this year.
Persons: Powell, , Jerome Powell, Wells, Katie Stockton, Stockton Organizations: PPI, Service, Federal Reserve, Fed, Fed Governors, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Here's Locations: Wells Fargo
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStill some downside to bitcoin within a long-term uptrend, says Fairlead Strategies' Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss bitcoin's recently volatility, latest market trends, and more.
Persons: Katie Stockton Katie Stockton
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: Cathie, ARKK, Katie Stockton Organizations: Innovation, CNBC, NBC UNIVERSAL, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: ARKK
Bitcoin's 16% sell-off this month is testing a key support level at around $60,000. This support level is bolstered by Bitcoin's 200-day moving average of just under $58,000. A break below $60,000 could lead to a 15% decline to the next support level at $51,500. AdvertisementThe steady decline in bitcoin this month has the cryptocurrency testing a key support level that could ultimately give way to a more painful sell-off. But if it doesn't, and bitcoin decisively breaks below $60,000, that suggests the token could continue its descent to its next support level at around $51,500.
Persons: , Bitcoin, Katie Stockton, bitcoin, Stockton Organizations: Service Locations: bitcoin
Read previewThe Titanic may be one of the most popular and identifiable wreckage sites in the history of sea travel. It also may be one of the most overrated, deep-sea explorers told Business Insider. Söhnlein's company, Blue Marble Exploration, recently announced it would venture into Dean's Blue Hole, a site in the Bahamas about 660 feet from the surface. Dean's Blue Hole EyesWideOpen/Getty Images"Dean's Blue Hole is an enigma for geologists studying underwater caverns," Blue Marble Exploration's website says. The company adds that it expects to find "human remains" of people who drowned in the blue hole "due to a variety of misfortunes."
Persons: , James Cameron's, Larry Connor, Karl Stanley, That's, Stanley, Guillermo Söhnlein, OceanGate, Söhnlein, it's, James Cameron, they're, Rush, Nicholas Mevoli Organizations: Service, Business, Titan, Stanley, OceanGate's, Stockton Rush, Stockton, Blue, Blue Marble Exploration, New York Times Locations: Kea, Blue Marble, Bahamas
Bitcoin's 10% sell-off since June 7 signals a warning for the broader stock market. AdvertisementBitcoin's 10% sell-off since June 7 is sending a warning sign to the broader stock market, according to Stifel strategist Barry Bannister. Bitcoin's inability to hit new record highs suggests the stock market is likely to play catch-up as it's set to decline in line with the cryptocurrency, according to the note. Bannister isn't the only analyst on Wall Street taking stock market cues from bitcoin. AdvertisementAdding to Bannister's conviction of an imminent stock market sell-off is the Federal Reserve, which could keep interest rates higher for longer to combat still-elevated inflation.
Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister, , bitcoin, Bannister isn't, Katie Stockton, Stockton, " Bannister Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Nvidia, Apple, Wall, Fairlead, CNBC, Federal Reserve, Big Tech
Read previewJay Bloom, a Las Vegas investor, says he was offered seats on OceanGate's Titan submersible but got nervous about safety and lied about a scheduling conflict to get out of it. "And he's telling me that it's safer than flying helicopters, it's safer than scuba diving, and safer than crossing the street." AdvertisementBloom told Newsweek that he and his son then made up a scheduling conflict and bowed out of the June 2023 dive. The Titan submersible set off to explore the Titanic wreck on June 18 but lost contact with its support ship within two hours. AdvertisementStill, Bloom told Newsweek that he might be willing to venture to the wreck of the Titanic if it were a Navy expedition or one guided by James Cameron.
Persons: , Jay Bloom, Bloom, Sean, Stockton Rush, Rush, OceanGate, Hamish Harding, Shahzada Dawood, Suleman, Paul, Henri Nargeolet, James Cameron, Elon Musk, let's, I'd, he's, Let's Organizations: Service, Newsweek, Business, Facebook, Stockton, US Coast Guard, Navy, Stockton Rush Locations: Las Vegas, British, British Pakistani
With OceanGate closed for business, the market for Titanic sub tourism appeared to slam shut. One leading sub operator, eager to demonstrate that the Titan sub failed to live up to the industry standards that can make trips to the ocean floor relatively safe, is already planning its own journey to the wreckage of the Titanic, where Titan was headed before it collapsed. But in its pursuit of “increasing access to the deep ocean through innovation,” OceanGate frequently skirted regulations and pushed back against industry standards. 2) OceanGate’s sub designs were so experimental, no other commercial sub operation would ever replicate them. “The deep ocean is no place for compromise,” Triton said in its statement.
Persons: , Larry Connor, ” Connor, Stockton Rush, ” Rush, David Pogue, , don’t, Don’t, OceanGate, Ray Dalio, James Cameron, , ” Triton, Lukas Furtenbach, Philippe Brown, Brown, ” Brown Organizations: New, New York CNN, Titanic, Triton, Wall Street, WSJ, CNN, Stockton, , Triton Submarines, American Bureau of Shipping, Furtenbach Locations: New York, Austria, Hudson
—Katie Stockton with Will Tamplin Access research from Fairlead Strategies for free here . Fairlead Strategies Disclaimer: This communication has been prepared by Fairlead Strategies LLC ("Fairlead Strategies") for informational purposes only. Securities, investment products, other financial products or strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The recipient of this information must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities, investment products or other financial products mentioned herein. This material is not to be reproduced or redistributed absent the written consent of Fairlead Strategies.
Persons: AVGO, Katie Stockton Organizations: Broadcom Inc, Nvidia, Fairlead, CNBC Pro, Securities Locations: AVGO
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailStill believe in this bull market cycle for both equities and bitcoin: Fairlead’s Katie StocktonKatie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies founder and managing partner, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, state of bitcoin, Treasury yields, and more.
Persons: Katie Stockton Katie Stockton Locations: bitcoin
Read previewOceanGate's co-founder said he thinks about the fatal Titan submersible voyage every day, and the incident pushes him to continue pursuing his vision of accessible deep-sea exploration. It's almost in the definition of exploration," he told BI in a recent interview. AdvertisementA communications firm representing OceanGate wrote in a brief email to BI that "OceanGate has suspended all exploration and commercial operations." Last year, Söhnlein told BI of his grand vision to send 1,000 people to a floating colony on Venus. And I think that's just kind of a lesson learned for everybody."
Persons: , Stockton Rush —, Rush, Arnie Weissmann, Guillermo Söhnlein, Söhnlein, didn't, Söhnlein hasn't, OceanGate, you've Organizations: Service, Stockton Rush, Business, US Coast Guard, Travel, BI, Marble Locations: Stockton, submersibles
Bryson DeChambeau’s brilliant bunker shot at 18 and winning putt that followed capped off a remarkable week at Pinehurst No. His second U.S. Open win comes at age 30, another rare accomplishment. Bryson must get up and down from the bunker to win the U.S. Open. This is arguably the most painful in the disappointing decade-long run of major championship Sundays for Rory McIlroy. DeChambeau will try to become the first player since Woods in 2000 to win The Open and U.S. Open in the same season.
Persons: Bryson, Dustin Johnson, Tiger, DeChambeau, Angel Cabrera, Bobby Jones, Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, Nicklaus, Woods, Ernie Els, Brooks Koepka, Wyndham Clark, Brian Harman, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Raymond Floyd, Jerry Pate, Johnny Miller, Dave Stockton, Tom Watson, Hubert Green, WsOg54UKWR, Rory McIlroy, putts, McIlroy, Jim Furyk, Jack Hobens, Hale Irwin, Julius Boros, Patrick Cantlay, Tony Finau, It’s, Neal Shipley, Luke Clanton, Shipley, Phil Mickelson, Matt Kuchar, Viktor Hovland, Ken Venturi, Matthieu Pavon, Pavon, Gregory Havret, Louis Tellier, Wunderkind Ludvig Åberg, Francis Ouimet, Åberg, Gregory Shamus, Scheffler, couldn’t, Henrik Stenson, Arnold Palmer, Tom Weiskopf, Ross Kinnaird Organizations: Pinehurst, U.S, Amateur, U.S ., Valhalla, Congressional, Masters, Royal Troon, Getty Locations: U.S, Oakmont, Pebble, Pinehurst, DeChambeau, France, bookending
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