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A vehicle drives on a flooded road after the arrival of Hurricane Idalia, in Cedar Key, Florida, U.S., August 30, 2023. Hurricane Idalia plowed into Florida's Gulf Coast with fierce winds, torrential rains and pounding surf before weakening but turning its fury on southeastern Georgia, where floodwaters trapped some residents in their homes. At about $10 billion, Idalia would cost insurers less than 10 of the costliest hurricanes to hit the United States. Higher reinsurance rates can affect the premiums that insurers charge their customers. FLORIDA PAINFlorida has a large number of very small, thinly capitalized insurers, insurance experts have said.

Persons: Hurricane Idalia, Julio Cesar Chavez, Thomas Hayes, Gallagher Re, Michael Peltier, Berkshire Hathaway, Ajit Jain, Noor Zainab Hussain, Manya, Chibuike Oguh, Jon Stempel, Devika Syamnath, Megan Davies, Cynthia Osterman Organizations: REUTERS, Hurricane, UBS, Global, Great, Great Hill Capital, Farmers Insurance, Bankers Insurance, Lexington Insurance, AIG, Farmers, Florida Office, Insurance, Bankers, Property Insurance Corp, Property Insurance, Berkshire, Manya Saini, Thomson Locations: Cedar Key , Florida, U.S, Florida, Coast, Georgia, United States, Ukraine, California, Great Hill, New York, FLORIDA, USA, Lexington, Berkshire, Bengaluru, Chibuike

Some analysts warn that rising yields could push up borrowing costs, causing the economic slowdown investors are now betting against. The key question is how much further bear steepening the market needs to see for "investors to become nervous," he added. In 2018, for instance, the curve shifted to a bear-steepening dynamic as the economy appeared to hold up well despite the Fed's tightening. Risks remain, however, warned Jonathan Cohn, head of US Rates Desk Strategy at Nomura Securities International, including the pain for companies refinancing debt at higher rates and China's weakening growth. BEARISH BETSSome investors are worried that Powell’s speech at the Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, could trigger a short squeeze.

Persons: Jerome Powell's, Michael Harris, Gennadiy Goldberg, Alfonso Peccatiello, Peccatiello, Jonathan Cohn, Powell, Harris, Eoin Walsh, Jim Cahn, Cahn, Michael Edwards, Weiss, there'd, Edwards, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Megan Davies, Mark Porter Organizations: Treasury, Futures, Quest Partners, Securities USA, Fed, Nomura Securities International, Investors, TwentyFour Asset Management, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Carolina

☆ Investors are betting that rate cuts are coming early next year. Here's what market experts are urging you do right now to cash in when rates do fall.
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

10-year Treasury yields are surging as the economy stays hot. For the first time since 2007, 10-year yields rose above 4.3% on Thursday after seeing a 31% surge since April. If or when that eventually happens, Treasury yields are likely to follow, presenting those who hold the assets with an opportunity. Bond yields fall when demand for the assets rise, pushing up their price. David Kelly, the chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, sees 10-year rates averaging 3.7% in the years ahead.

Persons: Gautam Khanna, Jason Draho, Lawrence Gillium, Craig Brothers, Brothers, Leslie Falconio, David Kelly, Kelly Organizations: Wall, Insight Investment, UBS Global Wealth, LPL, Bel Air Investment Advisors, Morgan Asset Management, Monopoly, Treasury Locations: Treasurys

☆ Investors are jumping back into short-term bond funds as rates rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( Jesse Pound | In Jesse-Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The recent jump in market interest rates may have caught some ETF investors off guard, and they are now shifting back into short-term bond funds that can better withstand rising yields. Bond yields move in the opposite direction of price, and long-term bonds see their prices hit harder when rates rise. As a result, investors are shifting into short-term bond funds. The following short-term bond ETFs were in the top 10 for net inflows over the past week, according to FactSet. The upward move for bond yields has been particularly acute in the long end of the yield curve.

Persons: Claudio Irigoyen, Fitch, Irigoyen, TLT Organizations: Federal, Treasury, Treasury Bond ETF, Bloomberg, Bank of America Locations: U.S, Japan

☆ China's state banks seen selling dollars for yuan in London and New York hours
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"State bank dollar selling has become a new normal to slow the pace of yuan depreciation," said one Shanghai-based trader. Offshore branches of the state banks were also seen selling dollars during London and New York trading hours this week, two sources with direct knowledge of the matter said on Thursday. Such dollar selling could limit falls in the offshore yuan and prevent it from diverging too far from its onshore counterpart . The onshore yuan traded at 7.3145 per dollar as of 0442 GMT, while the offshore yuan last fetched 7.3400. During recent weeks, market watchers say the Chinese authorities have sought to slow the yuan's decline, with the PBOC persistently setting a stronger-than-expected fixing, and state banks repeatedly selling dollars.

Persons: Yuan, Dado Ruvic, Hong, Jacqueline Wong, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, People's Bank of China, Shanghai, Thomson Locations: State, Shanghai, London, New York, China, U.S, Hong Kong

Japanese Yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken March 10, 2023. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoAug 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Markets are betting that the Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in more than 40 years is over. The short end of the bond market was a bit more stable, reflecting the view that the Fed is done raising rates. The dollar is nudging 145.00 yen, around where the Bank of Japan spent record yen-buying sums late last year as the yen hurtled to a 33-year low.

Persons: Yen, Dado Ruvic, Jamie McGeever, Brent, Deepa Babington Organizations: REUTERS, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Reserve Bank of India, India, Hong Kong

☆ Bond traders prepare to brave 'painful' yield curve bets as rate hikes slow
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-09 | by ( Harry Robertson | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Those moves have put the focus back on "steepening trades" - bets that shorter-dated yields will fall relative to longer-dated yields. "Everyone is now re-looking at these curve trades," said Olivier De Larouziere, chief investment officer for global fixed income at BNP Paribas Asset Management. "I would expect that in the next quarter, more people will start positioning for a steepening of the yield curve." That's led to a rare situation where the bond yield curve is "inverted". TIMING IS EVERYTHINGThe market moves over the last week highlight the risk of curve trades.

Persons: Lucas Jackson, Olivier De Larouziere, Fabio Bassi, That's, Alexandre Caminade, Anne Beaudu, Larouziere, JPMorgan's Bassi, Franck Dixmier, John Williams, Ostrum's Caminade, Harry Robertson, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, REUTERS, Bond, U.S, BNP, Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, JPMorgan, Treasury, Ostrum, ECB, Allianz Global Investors, Reuters Graphics, New York Fed, New York Times, Thomson Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, U.S, Europe, New

Containers are seen at the Yangshan Deep-Water Port in Shanghai, China October 19, 2020. REUTERS/Aly Song/File PhotoAug 8 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. China's July trade data top a heavy regional economic calendar on Tuesday, with current account, bank lending and household spending reports from Japan, current account data from South Korea and Australian consumer sentiment also on tap. But for the world's manufacturing and factory engine, focus is on the alarming weakness in exports. At -54.7, it is at its 'highest' level since June 30, but will soon be heading lower again if Tuesday's trade data disappoint.

Persons: Aly, Jamie McGeever, swatted, John Williams, Dow, Japan's Organizations: REUTERS, Wall, Treasury, New, Nasdaq, Equity, Nikon, Mazda, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Shanghai, China, Asia, Japan, South Korea, Beijing, U.S, Australia

Aug 7 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The U.S. yield curve steepened by 20-30 basis points last week - the biggest steepening since March - and the steepening of the 2-year/30-year yield curve by 30 basis points was one of the biggest weekly moves in over a decade. U.S. fiscal worries are also growing, however, and the Bank of Japan's recent 'yield curve control' surprise has lifted Japanese bond yields. Several potential market-moving data releases and events in Asia are also due, as well U.S. consumer price inflation for July. Monday's calendar in Asia is fairly light, with Indonesian Q2 GDP and Thai inflation for July the main releases.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, JP Morgan, Diane Craft Organizations: Nasdaq, Bank of, Sony, Reuters, Reserve Bank of India, China FX, Thomson Locations: Indonesia, Philippines, Asia, Japan, U.S, China, Beijing, Thailand

Aug 4 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The long end of the U.S. Treasury curve is getting crushed, triggering a surge in long-dated yields and 'steepening' of the curve. The Asian economic data and corporate events calendar on Friday is light, with only Philippines inflation and Singapore retail sales on tap, leaving regional markets beholden to global risk sentiment. The 10-year and 30-year yields are at their highest levels since November, comfortably above 4.0%, and the latter is on track for its biggest weekly rise this year. Global currency market and S&P 500 equity volatility are the highest in two months, and implied volatility in dollar/yen trading is registering its steepest weekly rise since March.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Deepa Babington Organizations: Investors, U.S, Treasury, Apple, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Asia, Singapore, Japan, Philippines

Sterling initially dropped, reflecting disappointment after traders had priced in a 30% chance of another 50 bp hike. Longer-term gilt yields, more responsive to investors' perceptions about the economic growth trajectory, rose by the most in a month. Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey attends a press conference for the Monetary Policy Report August 2023, at the Bank of England in London, Britain, August 3, 2023. Two-year gilt yields have risen by more than 120 basis points this year, more than double the increase of their U.S. equivalent. On Thursday, two-year gilt yields were down 5 bps in late trade, while those on 30-year debt rose 10 bps, the most in a month, to 4.66%.

Persons: BoE, Andy Burgess, Andrew Bailey, Sterling, we've, Bank of England Andrew Bailey, Alastair Grant, Jeremy Hunt, Carl Shepherd, they'll, juicier, Peter Goves, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Bank, Bank of England, Monetary, REUTERS, Conservative, Newton Investment Management, Swiss, MFS Investment Management, Reuters Graphics, Thomson Locations: AMSTERDAM, LGIM, London, Britain, U.S

Passersby are reflected on an electric stock quotation board outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan April 18, 2023. REUTERS/Issei Kato/File PhotoAug 3 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. Services PMI data from Australia, Japan, India and China are due on Thursday, with China's unofficial Caixin report coming under the closest scrutiny. The U.S. yield curve has been steepening for more than a week, led by selling at the long end. The yen ended the day little changed, and dollar/yen volatility is comfortably lower than it was before Friday's BOJ move.

Persons: Issei Kato, Jamie McGeever, Friday's, Marguerita Choy Organizations: REUTERS, AAA, PMI, Nasdaq, Treasury, Bank of, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, Australia, India, China, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Bank of Japan excites, Dow unlucky, Intel jumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Specifically, the central bank said it would offer to buy 10-year JGBs at 1.0% in fixed-rate operations, instead of the previous rate of 0.5% - tolerating the wider band for bond market borrowing rates. With July core inflation in Tokyo falling back to a 10-month low, the need for tightening may be ebbing anyway. Friday's data is expected to show another drop in the Fed's favoured core PCE inflation gauge in June. For markets more broadly, Friday seems a little scattergun so far after a heavy week of macro policy and corporate news. U.S. Treasury yields fell back from two-week highs hit after the punchy U.S. economy readouts and central bank moves, with the 2-to-10 year yield curve steepening as recession fears abate.

Persons: Mike Dolan, Dow Jones bluechips, T Rowe Price, Nick Macfie Organizations: Bank of Japan, Dow, Nikkei, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Treasury, ECB, Intel, U.S, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Proctor, Gamble, Colgate Palmolive, Franklin Resources, Newell Brands, Church, Dwight, Charter Communications, Dallas Fed, University of Michigan, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Wall St, Tokyo, Wall, Asia, Centene, Franklin

☆ Asian shares rally, dollar slides on bets Fed almost done hiking
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-13 | by ( Stella Qiu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 1.5%, bolstered by a 2.1% jump in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index (.HSI) and a 1.4% gain in Australia's resources-heavy shares (.AXJO). Overnight, the much-watched U.S. consumer inflation report provided better news than markets had hoped for. In particular, core inflation, which the Fed has feared to be sticky, also showed a sharper-than-expected slowdown. Elsewhere, oil prices settled near the highest in two months on a soft U.S. dollar. Brent crude futures rose 0.2% to $80.29 per barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 0.2 at $75.88.

Persons: Li Qiang, Michael Feroli, Bonds, Alan Ruskin, Stella Qiu, Jamie Freed Organizations: SYDNEY, Japan's Nikkei, Index, Fed, Nasdaq, JPMorgan, FedWatch, U.S, European Central Bank, Deutsche Bank ., Bank of Canada, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: China, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Hong Kong, Canada

☆ China's services activity softens as recovery falters - Caixin PMI
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The data broadly tracked the government's official PMI released last week and showed a slowdown in service sector activity as demand for in-person services weakened. Business activity and new orders both expanded at notably slower rates last month than in May, the Caixin PMI showed. The rate of job creation in the services sector also edged up to a three-month high but remained mild overall. Caixin/S&P's composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to 52.5 from 55.6 in May, marking the sixth straight month of expansion. "Meanwhile, the services sector continued a post-COVID rebound, but the recovery was losing steam."

Persons: Wang Zhe, Nomura, Ting Lu, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: P Global, PMI, Employment, Caixin Insight, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, COVID, China

☆ China's services activity softens as recovery falters, private survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in five months in June, a private-sector survey showed on Wednesday, as weakening demand weighed on post-pandemic recovery momentum. The data broadly tracked the government's official PMI released last week and showed a slowdown in service sector activity as demand for in-person services weakened. Business activity and new orders both expanded at notably slower rates last month than in May, the Caixin PMI showed. The rate of job creation in the services sector also edged up to a three-month high but remained mild overall. "Meanwhile, the services sector continued a post-COVID rebound, but the recovery was losing steam."

Persons: Wang Zhe, Nomura, Ting Lu Organizations: P Global, PMI, Employment, Caixin Insight Locations: China, Covid

☆ U.S. property catastrophe reinsurance rates rise up to 50% on July 1-report
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

Higher reinsurance rates can affect the premiums which insurers charge to their customers. U.S. reinsurance rates for policies which previously faced claims for natural catastrophes rose 30-50%, Gallagher Re said. Reinsurance rates for similar policies in Florida rose 30-40%, the broker added. State Farm said in May it would stop selling new insurance policies to homeowners in California. Reinsurance rates for some types of aviation war policies rose by up to 100% on the July 1 renewal date, Gallagher Re said.

Persons: Mike Blake, Gallagher Re, James Vickers, Gallagher, Hurricane Ian, Aon, Carolyn Cohn, Noor Zainab Hussain, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, Farm, Gallagher Re, Reuters, Vickers, Hurricane, U.S, Industry, Boeing, Thomson Locations: Laguna Niguel , California, U.S, California, Florida, In Florida, Russia, Khartoum, London, Bengaluru

The yield curve's inversions deepened in June after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank would likely raise rates two more times this year. Stronger-than-expected economic data on Thursday backed expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer. Treasury yields- which move inversely to prices - moved up, with 10-year and two-year yields hitting their highest since March 10 and 9, respectively, while some curve inversions intensified. The spread between one- and 30-year Treasury yields was as wide as 153 basis points on Wednesday, its biggest gap since 1981. Key areas of the U.S. economy, including housing and labor, have proven resilient despite higher rates.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, Janet Rilling, Huw Roberts, Davide Barbuscia, Chuck Mikolajczak, Ira Iosebashvili, Sam Holmes, Aurora Ellis, Nick Zieminski Organizations: YORK, U.S, Treasury, Federal, Allspring Global Investments, Quant, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Evercore: 16 stocks that will outperform as the market rally heads higher — and 5 warning signs that the momentum has finally run out
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-18 | by ( Mark Reeth | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Evercore ISI's Julian Emanuel wrote that market momentum can continue despite the latest Fed news. And he wrote that the capitulation of record shorts in today's market is a warning sign as well. If they rise to over 300,000 a week and stay there, then today's momentum market might be coming to an end. "Timing whether this is the beginning, middle or end of a Momentum Market is extraordinarily difficult," Emanuel wrote. The 16 stocks Emanuel uncovered that could outperform as today's momentum market continues are below.

Persons: Evercore, Julian Emanuel, Emanuel, they'll, that's, Russell Organizations: Evercore ISI, Big Tech, Nasdaq, American Association of

☆ Apple shares hit an all-time high. What Wall Street says happens from here
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

As Apple sets a new record, Wall Street remains conflicted over the trajectory for shares in the near term. The iPhone maker notched a new all-time high on Monday, a week after hitting an intraday high . AAPL YTD mountain Apple shares in 2023 But with the jump in shares putting Apple about 2% shy of Wall Street's consensus price target, questions remain over the likelihood of more upside in the near term. As of midday Tuesday, Apple shares traded at a forward price-to-earnings multiple of more than 31 times, above the multiple for the broader S & P 500. Despite Apple's steepening stock price and some reservations about its valuation, many analysts are keeping their bullish stance.

Persons: Paul Meeks, Research's Angelo Zino, Bullish, Dan Ives, Ives, Tim Cook, it's Organizations: Apple, UBS, Securities, Big Tech Locations: Cupertino

☆ Analysis: Germany leads big bond rally as inflation finally heads down
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Yoruk Bahceli | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Borrowing costs, or bond yields, in the benchmark euro area issuer are down at least 20 basis points (bps) this week , . Yet this week's notable moves suggest investors are plumping with the view that easing inflation and recession risks are strong bond buy signals. Traders now expect the ECB hikes to peak at around 3.7% by September, suggesting two more hikes from 3.25% currently. COMPLICATEDInvestors cautioned that the European inflation outlook remained more complicated than in the United States, where inflation broadly is down sharply from peaks. This week's fall in borrowing costs followed sharp rises the previous two weeks on bets for more rate hikes.

Persons: Kaspar Hense, Flavio Carpenzano, It's, Cosimo Marasciulo, Marasciulo, BlueBay's Hense, Oliver Eichmann, DWS, Eichmann, Yoruk Bahceli, Harry Robertson, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: Bank, British, Thursday's, Traders, BlueBay Asset Management, Capital Group, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, General Investment Management, Bank of England, NatWest, Pictet Wealth Management, Thomson Locations: Germany, United States, Europe, Amundi, U.S, Britain, DWS

☆ There's one simple reason why US housing inventory is set to remain low for the foreseeable future
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The share of outstanding mortgages financed at less than 3% jumped during the pandemic, said Pantheon Macroeconomics. New home listings in April were down more than 20% from a year ago, according to Realtor.com, with steepening mortgage rates a factor. It also found that about 97% of outstanding mortgages are fixed for 15 years or for 30 years, and 60% are just one to four years old. "In other words, most existing homeowners are not going to move unless they absolutely have to, due to death, divorce, or an—irresistible—job offer," said Clancy. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate is averaging 6.55%, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association on Thursday.

The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data show that speculators have built up record short positions in two- and five-year Treasuries futures, and a record net short aggregate position when 10-year bonds are added to the mix. A short position is essentially a wager that an asset's price will fall, and a long position is a bet it will rise. The latest CFTC data show that in the week through May 9 speculative accounts grew their net short position in two-year Treasuries by 116,409 contracts - the biggest increase in over two years - to a new record 749,885 contracts. Funds also increased their net short position in five-year bonds for a third straight week by a slender 412 contracts, to a fresh record 910,642, while they trimmed their net short position in the 10-year space slightly to 731,698 contracts. Funds were ultra-bearish the five-year and 10-year bonds in late 2018, but nowhere near as bearish on two-year Treasuries.

☆ Column: Europe raises green energy climate hurdles with red tape revamp: Maguire
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-25 | by ( Gavin Maguire | Thomson Reuters | Gavin Maguire Is The Global Energy Transition Columnist. He Was Previously Asia Commodities | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

EMISSIONS TRADING TWEAKSThe European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the region's main device for managing emissions by providing financial incentives to cut pollution while penalising high emitters. This is designed to prevent companies moving heavy polluting parts of their supply chain to areas outside of the EU ETS catchment area, and ensure that companies cannot merely outsource the dirtiest parts of the production phase elsewhere. However, this new mechanism runs the risk of eroding the cost competitiveness of hard-to-decarbonize sectors, such as steel and chemicals producers. The key now for Europe's lawmakers is to ensure that many of these new hurdles can still be cleared by key industries without undermining the economic competitiveness of the entire region. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Stock market bulls got what they wanted today: a Goldilocks CPI
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-12 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The March consumer price index was up 0.1% month over month, lower than the 0.2% expected. Core CPI (ex-food and energy) up 0.4% month over month, in-line with expectations. Today's CPI is helpful for the bulls' central thesis: that the Fed's tightening period is nearing an end. Bottom line: the CPI data has a shot at pushing the S & P out of the doldrums. The S & P 500 has been in a very narrow 50-point trading range for over a week.

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