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China protested loudly when Biden subsequently referred to Xi as a "dictator," but analysts say the remark had little impact on efforts to improve ties. "We seek a healthy economic relationship with China, one that fosters growth and innovation in both countries," the official said. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, declined to give details on which Chinese officials Yellen would meet in Beijing. A second administration official told Reuters that Yellen was expected to meet the Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. Yellen would underscore Washington's determination to strengthen its own competitiveness while responding with allies to what Washington calls "economic coercion" and unfair economic practices by China, the first official said.
Persons: Janet Yellen, Joe Biden, Antony Blinken, Xi Jinping, Biden, Xi, Yellen, Andrea Shalal, Ross Colvin, Nick Zieminski Organizations: . Treasury, Treasury, Washington, Reuters, Micron Technology, Thomson Locations: Beijing, China, U.S
Does a recession in Europe hurt the US?
  + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +7 min
New York CNN —Slow consumer spending and sticky inflation have led to two consecutive quarters of economic contraction in the European Union. That means that the eurozone fell into a recession over the winter months, and growth this year is likely to be weak. If Europe sneezes, the economists ask, is it possible that the United States catches a cold? Akinci and Pesenti recently examined whether economic crises in Europe have affected the United States over the past thirty years. Strong employment and higher wages can mean higher inflation as companies pass on increased labor costs by raising the price of goods.
Persons: they’re, Ozge Akinci, Paolo Pesenti, , we’ll, We’ll, Janet Yellen, Emmanuel Macron, , Goldman Sachs, David Solomon, , Solomon, ” Solomon, haven’t, It’s, Alicia Wallace Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, European Union, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Organisation for Economic Co, US Federal Reserve, French, CNBC, Federal, CPI, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, United States, Europe, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Greece, France
Currently, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. insures $250,000 per depositor for each ownership category for deposits held at an insured bank. That year, the standard maximum deposit insurance amount was temporarily raised to $250,000, from $100,000. How future deposit insurance may changeThe FDIC in May released a report that outlined three options for the future of the deposit insurance system. This may include an increased, yet also "finite," deposit insurance limit, the FDIC's report states. A third choice, targeted coverage, would provide different levels of deposit insurance coverage for different types of accounts, with higher coverage for business payment accounts.
Persons: Lauren Justice, First Republic —, Martin Gruenberg, Gruenberg, Ted Jenkin, Atlanta . Jenkin, Jenkin Organizations: Bank, Bloomberg, Getty, Valley Bank, Signature Bank, CNBC, Millionaire Survey, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, First, Committee, Silicon Locations: Beverly Hills , California, First Republic, Atlanta .
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesChina's lackluster economic recovery since emerging from strict "zero-Covid" lockdowns has caused weaker sentiment toward the country, prompting investors to look for alternative options — like its near neighbors. Higher targets for JapanForeign investors have undoubtedly been key in driving the Japanese market, maintaining the highest levels the Nikkei has seen since 1990. During the same period last year, foreign investors had sold a net 1.73 trillion yen approximately. Wall Street banks including Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale are among those that are optimistic on Japanese stocks, holding "overweight" positions. Upside for Korea tech stocksSouth Korea is another market closely watched as concerns over China's recovery linger.
Persons: Goldman, Andrew Tilton, Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett, India's, Goldman Sachs, Tilton, Morgan Stanley, ROE, Mike Wilson, we've, Price, Goldman's Tilton, Rhee Chang, Nomura, Chloe Andrieu, Pranjul Bhandari, Bhandari Organizations: Bloomberg, Getty, Asia, Pacific, Japan Foreign, Nikkei, Japan's Ministry of Finance, Societe Generale, Equity, U.S, UBS Global Wealth, U.S ., UBS, The Bank of, CNBC, Citi, AFP, Afp, Korea Financial Investment Association, South Korean, Fitch, Ben Advisors Locations: Macau, China, Japan, South Korea, India, Goldman Sachs, Berkshire, South, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Wall, Korea, Asia, The Bank of Korea, Fuyang, China's, Anhui, Indonesia
LONDON, June 1 (Reuters) - Even if the U.S. dollar's singular dominance as global currency of choice is in fact ebbing, it may not automatically lead to a weaker dollar exchange rate - and could periodically mean the opposite. The big advantage of large dollar reserve holdings alongside wide commercial usage and trade in dollars overseas was clear. But the issue is typically read in markets as a reason to bet on a weakening dollar exchange rate - or even to pump alternatives such as gold or crypto tokens. Of course, that was a global economy riven with fixed dollar exchange rate pegs that supercharged the transmission of Fed policy, most of which have since been dismantled. That may be a world many countries prefer if they are sure of viable alternatives - but may not mean a weaker dollar.
Persons: chomping, Alan Greenspan's, Janet Yellen, Yellen, Mike Dolan, Kirsten Donovan Organizations: Federal, OASIS, Fed, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Twitter, Thomson Locations: U.S, United States, Washington, China, Ukraine, Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa, Iran, Venezuela, outflows
The biggest risk it identified was that shadow banks withdrew their funds from banks, such as deposits and repurchase agreements. These account for 13% of all traditional banks' liabilities -- or more for larger banks. This could happen if the shadow banks -- or non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFI) in the regulators' jargon -- were themselves hit by outflows or lost confidence in a bank. Other spillover channels included forced sales of assets by shadow banks, which would cause losses at traditional banks because their portfolios often overlap or are correlated, the ECB said. It added that distress at systemically important lenders would also spell trouble for shadow banks.
Bats carry killer viruses. Scientists suggest ways to cope.
  + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +6 min
“I have to think on a landscape scale.”Research in Australia also is deepening scientists’ understanding of bats. Flying foxes travel long distances in search of food, dispensing seeds and pollinating trees along the way. As deforestation destroyed habitats and further disrupted the food supply, the bats have increasingly formed year-round roosts near people, they noticed. Native gums flowering around Gympie lured the flying foxes away from horse paddocks and more urban areas. In fact, the most dangerous areas for spillover aren’t rare, pristine habitats absent of humans, scientists say.
Bat viruses have been the source of multiple health crises besides those related to coronaviruses, including recent outbreaks of Ebola, Nipah, and Marburg. Partners in risk The total area at high risk for bat viruses to infect humans more than doubled in size in Laos between 2002 and 2020. The animals, known to be susceptible to bat viruses, included raccoon dogs, bamboo rats and porcupines. As China boomed in recent decades, global demand for rubber also skyrocketed, leading to further development and deforestation here. Already, scientists have found local bats bearing viruses closely related to those responsible for the 2003 SARS and COVID-19 pandemics.
How a deadly bat virus found new ways to infect people
  + stars: | 2023-05-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +16 min
Scientists found bats with Nipah virus roosting near Sabith’s home. A search of the neighborhood led to a colony, near their house, of flying foxes, a common fruit bat. NETTING NIPAH: Researchers in Bangladesh use nets to catch bats and collect samples to find the Nipah virus in the wild. REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir HossainWhether Sabith ate contaminated fruit or somehow came into direct contact with a bat, the virus entered his cells. REUTERS/Mohammad Ponir HossainA year later, Chua’s team found the same strain of Nipah virus in flying foxes.
How Reuters pinpointed bat-virus risk zones worldwide
  + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +12 min
Areas where conditions are similar are more prone to spillover, scientists say. The Reuters analysis, which assessed spillover risk through 2020, has proven to have some predictive power. Similar statistical models are used widely to analyze data in ecology, and researchers use them to understand spillover risk. More than one of every five people on the planet is living in areas where the risk is highest for spillover. Using epidemic modeling software called GLEAMviz, the news agency simulated a worldwide pandemic originating from the spillover of a theoretical novel virus.
We may never know where the COVID pandemic originated
  + stars: | 2023-05-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
LONDONIt’s the enduring mystery of the COVID-19 pandemic: Where did the virus come from? They also mostly agree that many of the earliest known infections and deaths clustered around a wildlife market in Wuhan, China. Others suspect the pathogen somehow leaked from a Wuhan laboratory, 27 km from the market, where researchers study bat viruses. One concentration of jump zones includes a region of mountains and lakes about 175 km southeast of the Wuhan market. In late 2002, the SARS-CoV-1 virus emerged in Guangdong province, in southern China, and became the SARS pandemic of 2003.
In the draft communique, the G7 central banks said they remained "strongly committed" to achieving price stability and ensuring inflation expectations stayed well-anchored. "Diversification of supply chains can contribute to safeguarding energy security and help us to maintain macroeconomic stability," the draft communique said. But it said G7 countries will work to ensure foreign investment in critical infrastructure "does not undermine the economic sovereignty of host countries." On banking-system woes, the draft communique said the financial system was resilient due to regulatory reforms implemented after the 2008 global financial crisis. "We will address data, supervisory, and regulatory gaps in the banking system," the draft communique said.
While most Asian central banks must keep tightening monetary policy, Japan remains an exception with inflation still moderate - though this could change. "There is uncertainty around the direction of monetary policy in Japan, amid a rise in inflation," Srinivasan said. "Changes in Japan's monetary policy that lead to further increases in government bond yields could have global spillovers through Japanese investors, who have large investment positions in debt instruments abroad," Srinivasan said. With inflation exceeding its 2% target, markets are rife with speculation the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could modify its bond yield control policy in coming months. The BOJ kept ultra-low interest rates on Friday but announced a plan to review its past monetary policy moves, laying the groundwork for new governor Kazuo Ueda to phase out his predecessor's massive stimulus programme.
The resumption of bilateral financial discussions comes ahead of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's planned visit to South Korea on Sunday and Monday for talks with President Yoon Suk Yeol. It also came as Asian policymakers, gathering for the annual Asian Development Bank (ADB) meeting this week in the South Korean city of Incheon, discussed regional economic challenges and ways to beef up buffers against various shocks. In a joint statement issued after their meeting on Tuesday, Asian finance leaders warned of risks to the region's economy and called for countries to stay vigilant to potential spillovers from the recent U.S. and European banking sector turmoil. Japan and South Korea will resume regular finance dialogue, likely to be held annually, at "an appropriate timing," Suzuki told reporters after the bilateral meeting. Choo is expected to visit Japan this year for another meeting with Suzuki, South Korea's finance ministry said.
"Asia and Pacific will be the most dynamic of the world's major regions in 2023, predominantly driven by the buoyant outlook for China and India," the IMF said its regional economic outlook report. "As in the rest of the world, domestic demand is expected to remain the largest growth driver across Asia in 2023." Asia's economy is expected to expand 4.6% this year after a 3.8% increase in 2022, contributing around 70% of global growth, the IMF said, upgrading its forecast by 0.3 of a percentage point from October. "The costs of failing to bring inflation below target are likely to outweigh any benefits from keeping monetary conditions loose," the IMF said. "Insufficient tightening in the short term would require disproportionately more monetary tightening later to avoid high inflation becoming ingrained, making a larger contraction more likely."
BEVERLY HILLS, California (Reuters) -International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday she expects more weaknesses to be exposed in the banking sector, only hours after First Republic Bank was rescued by JPMorgan Chase . Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund, speaks at the 2023 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, U.S., May 1, 2023. REUTERS/Mike BlakeSpeaking at the 2023 Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California, Georgieva immediately addressed the biggest topic of the day - the banking crisis that has been unnerving investors for weeks. “Recent events continue to remind us of the challenges posed by the interaction between tighter monetary and financial conditions and the buildup in vulnerabilities in the global financial system,” a spokesperson said. The IMF last month trimmed its 2023 global growth outlook slightly as higher interest rates cooled activity but warned that a severe flare-up of financial system turmoil could slash output to near-recessionary levels.
Tanzania expects economy to rebound in 2023
  + stars: | 2023-04-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: 1 min
NAIROBI, April 28 (Reuters) - Tanzania's economy is expected to grow faster this year compared with a year earlier, but performance could be dampened by effects of the war in Ukraine, Finance Minister Mwigulu Nchemba said in a letter to the International Monetary Fund. In the letter dated April 4 and made public on Friday, Nchemba said the economy was expected to expand by about 5.2% in 2023 from 4.7% a year earlier. "We expect the economy to continue facing headwinds from spillovers of the war in Ukraine in the near term," he said. Tanzania's economy relies on among others, tourism, mining and agriculture. Reporting by George Obulutsa; Editing by James Macharia ChegeOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Companies First Republic Bank FollowApril 26 (Reuters) - Oil rose on Wednesday after plunging more than 2% in the previous session as reports of falling U.S. crude oil and fuel inventories refocused investors on robust demand in the world's top oil consumer. Brent crude climbed by 30 cents, or 0.4%, to $81.07 a barrel by 0358 GMT. U.S. crude oil stocks fell by about 6.1 million barrels in the week ended April 21, according to market sources citing American Petroleum Institute (API) figures on Tuesday. Analysts had expected crude inventories to fall by about 1.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell 1.9 million barrels last week, while distillate inventories rose by 1.7 million barrels, the sources said the API reported.
WASHINGTON, April 21 (Reuters) - Top U.S. regulators on Friday proposed new rules to speed the assessment of financial stability risks and make it easier to designate non-bank institutions as systemically important, subjecting them to Federal Reserve supervision. The multi-regulator Financial Stability Oversight Council released the proposals for public comment just over a month after two regional bank failures sparked the biggest financial system contagion threat since the 2008 financial crisis. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has raised concerns about non-bank financial institutions, including hedge funds, because of their lack of supervision and the potential for systemic spillovers from firms in distress. NOT USHedge fund, mutual fund and asset manager trade groups responded by saying that regulators should look elsewhere for threats to financial stability. The new framework also specifies vulnerabilities that FSOC and member regulators would consider when evaluating potential stability risks.
Analysis: Rates shift gives European currencies fresh legs
  + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Alun John | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
But markets expect another 75 bps of European Central Bank rate hikes, with the deposit rate rising to a peak in the autumn. Expectations for higher official interest rates typically drag money market and government bond yields higher, attracting investor cash into a country and boosting its currency. "An interest rate differential that is flat between the two regions would be equivalent to a euro/dollar move up to around 1.20." TURNAROUNDThe Federal Reserve's relentless rate hikes sent the dollar to 20-year highs last year as other big central banks moved more slowly. "But interestingly last month has seen the pound stronger, because of limited spillovers and declining U.S. and European rate expectations."
WASHINGTON, April 17 (Reuters) - Just a month after the biggest banking crisis in more than a decade, the world's top economic and financial policymakers gathered in Washington and said surprisingly little about financial system stability - at least publicly. Some officials conveyed a sense that banking system safety was further down the priority list of global economic problems. "But it's still something where we need to stay vigilant and address potential risks which may emerge in our financial system," Dombrovskis told reporters. He added that the European Union's banking system was stable, well capitalized with ample liquidity. But during the IMFC's closed meeting, the possible spillovers from financial stability risks were a main topic, Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhiy Marchenko told Reuters.
WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund's steering committee on Friday said it would accelerate its discussions on quota reforms at the global lender with an eye to making "considerable progress" by its next meeting in October. "In this context, we support at least maintaining" the IMF’s current lending resources, Calvino said in a summary of the committee's work. "With regard to IMF resources, I continue to believe that overall resources remain adequate," Yellen said. "At the same time, the IMF needs to follow through on its commitment to a new quota formula that is both fair and simple and primarily reflects the economic size of its member countries." He called for a "pragmatic approach" to complete the review by December to increase IMF resources and to "strengthen the voice and representation of dynamic emerging market and developing economies."
REUTERS/Siphiwe SibekoSummarySummary Companies IMF revises up this year's Asia-Pacific growth f'castChina's reopening to underpin Asia's recoveryImpact of global banking stress on Asia limited - IMFWASHINGTON, April 13 (Reuters) - Asian central banks may need to keep monetary policy "tighter for longer" to combat still substantial inflation risks, senior International Monetary Fund official Krishna Srinivasan said on Thursday. The latest forecast implies the region will contribute over 70% of global growth this year, Srinivasan said. The IMF expects China's economy to expand by 5.2% in 2023, higher than the previous year's 3.0% growth. "China's reopened economy is rebounding strongly, and this will generate positive spillovers to its trading partners, providing fresh momentum for Asia's growth," he said. "Unless strains increase and raise broad-based stability concerns, central banks should separate monetary policy objectives from financial stability goals," he said.
Under yield curve control (YCC), the BOJ guides the 10-year government bond yield around 0% as part of efforts to sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target. The central bank's decision in December to widen the tolerance band around the yield target has heightened market bets of a further near-term tweak or end to YCC. Changes to the BOJ's yield control policy may affect financial markets through exchange rates, term premiums on sovereign bonds and global risk premiums, the IMF said. While the yield control policy has helped keep borrowing costs low, it has come under increasing criticism for distorting market pricing and crushing financial institutions' profits. "Clear communication in the event of adjustments to the Bank of Japan's monetary policy is critical to avoid market volatility," it said.
The IMF's U.S. outlook improved slightly, with growth in 2023 forecast at 1.6% versus 1.4% forecast in January as labor markets remain strong. "Our advice is for monetary policy to remain focused on bringing down inflation," IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told reporters. The report included two analyses showing financial turmoil causing moderate and severe impacts on global growth. This "moderate tightening" of financial conditions could slice 0.3 percentage point off of global growth for 2023, cutting it to 2.5%. This scenario could slash 2023 growth by as much as 1.8 percentage points, reducing it to 1.0% - a level that implies near-zero GDP growth per capita.
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