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☆ UBS to take over Credit Suisse, assume up to 5 billion Swiss francs in losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

BERN, March 19 (Reuters) - UBS (UBSG.S) agreed to buy rival Swiss bank Credit Suisse (CSGN.S) for 3 billion Swiss francs ($3.23 billion) in stock and agreed to assume up to 5 billion francs ($5.4 billion) in losses, in a shotgun merger engineered by Swiss authorities to avoid more market-shaking turmoil in global banking. The deal includes 100 billion Swiss francs ($108 billion) in liquidity assistance for UBS and Credit Suisse from the Swiss central bank. In that eventuality, UBS would assume the first 5 billion francs, the federal government the next 9 billion francs, and UBS would assume any further losses, the government said. Credit Suisse Additional Tier 1 shares with a nominal value of around 16 billion francs ($17.2 billion) will be written down completely after the Swiss government provided support for UBS' takeover of Credit Suisse, FINMA said. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe Swiss government said that it was also giving UBS a guarantee of 9 billion Swiss francs "assume potential losses" from assets as part of the transaction.

☆ UBS to take over Credit Suisse, assume up to 5 bln Swiss francs in losses
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The deal includes 100 billion Swiss francs ($108 billion) in liquidity assistance for UBS and Credit Suisse from the Swiss central bank. In that eventuality, UBS would assume the first 5 billion francs, the federal government the next 9 billion francs, and UBS would assume any further losses, the government said. Credit Suisse Additional Tier 1 shares with a nominal value of around 16 billion francs ($17.2 billion) will be written down completely after the Swiss government provided support for UBS' takeover of Credit Suisse, FINMA said. Authorities had been scrambling to rescue Credit Suisse, among the world's largest wealth managers, before financial markets reopened on Monday. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsThe Swiss government said that it was also giving UBS a guarantee of 9 billion Swiss francs "assume potential losses" from assets as part of the transaction.

☆ Analysis: Door slams on Japan bank rally as focus turns to bond holdings in wake of SVB
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-14 | by ( Tom Westbrook | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Losses in Silicon Valley Bank's bond portfolio have highlighted similar risks for Japanese lenders' gigantic foreign bond holdings, which are carrying over 4 trillion yen ($30 billion) in unrealised losses. Three days of selling has the Tokyo Stock Exchange banks index (.IBNKS.T) down 16% - its sharpest drop since the days after the 2011 earthquake and tsunami struck Japan. Reuters GraphicsBONDS GETTING HITMost of the time, bond losses aren't a problem for banks, which typically hold their investments to maturity. An annual Bank of Japan report published on Tuesday said Japanese financial institutions have sufficient capital buffers. "And maybe some concerns Japanese banks have exposures, and some profit taking," he said.

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Predicted drops in house prices in the U.S., Canada, Britain, Germany, Australia and New Zealand will come off price surges of as much as 50% since the start of the pandemic in 2020. House prices in Canada and New Zealand, which began to fall last year, were forecast to register a peak-to-trough drop of at least 20%, the poll showed. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsDouble-digit falls from recent peaks were also predicted for Australia (16.0%), Germany (11.5%) and the U.S. (10.0%). Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAmong the most commonly cited reasons for house prices to remain elevated were crimped supply, made worse during the pandemic, when construction activity came to a near-halt, and ever-rising demand. While India's housing market will remain resilient despite rising interest rates, home prices in Dubai were also predicted to rise steadily.

☆ Global house prices set to extend declines, risk of more with higher rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Hari Kishan | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

☆ India's SpiceJet posts surge in Q3 passenger revenue on travel rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BENGALURU, Feb 24 (Reuters) - India's SpiceJet Ltd (SPJT.NS) reported a 33% surge in third-quarter passenger revenue on Friday as the low-cost carrier flew more customers at higher fares amid a boom in travel demand, sending shares up 13% to a two-month high. The results come as the cash-strapped airline looks to raise capital with competition heating up in the industry. A rebound in passenger travel ensured strength in revenue for airlines like SpiceJet and rival IndiGo (INGL.NS). For the quarter ended Dec. 31, SpiceJet's passenger revenue surged 33% as yields, a proxy for airfares, jumped 21%. ($1 = 82.7550 Indian rupees)Reporting by Nallur Sethuraman and Chris Thomas in Bengaluru; Editing by Sohini GoswamiOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar jumps to six-week high on higher rate expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-17 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The dollar surged on Friday to hit a six-week high against a basket of currencies as a bout of resilient economic data out of the United States raised market expectations that more interest rate hikes were in the offing. The latest data releases gave the U.S. dollar a leg up, knocking sterling to a fresh six-week low of $1.1952 on Friday. Similarly, the kiwi tumbled to a six-week trough of $0.6228, while the euro bottomed at $1.0652, its lowest since Jan. 9. Against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index rose to a fresh six-week top of 104.31 and was on track for a third straight week of gains. U.S. Treasury yields have also surged on the back of further hawkish rate repricing, with the two-year yields last at 4.6762%.

☆ In surprise, Pope Francis receives cardinal on trial for corruption
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-09 | by ( Philip Pullella | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Guglielmo Mangiapane/File PhotoVATICAN CITY, Feb 9 (Reuters) - Pope Francis, in a surprise move, on Thursday granted an official private audience to Cardinal Angelo Becciu, the once-powerful Vatican prelate who is on trial for corruption and embezzlement. Becciu is one of 10 defendants at the corruption trial, which revolves around the purchase of a building in London by the Secretariat of State. Pope Francis fired Becciu from another senior clerical post in 2020 for alleged nepotism, an accusation he also denies. This included the right to enter a secret conclave to elect the next pope after Francis's death or resignation. In one of the most recent hearings of the trial, last November, the court heard a secretly recorded telephone call between Becciu and the pope.

☆ Dollar plunges as Fed says disinflation now in play
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Rae Wee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar dived following Powell's remarks, and against a basket of currencies, the U.S. dollar index fell to a fresh nine-month low of 100.80. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar fell 0.55% to 128.21. With the Fed out of the way, the stage is set for the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) to announce their rate decisions later on Thursday, where expectations are for a 50bp hike from each. "I don't think that's going to influence the messaging from the ECB, which I think is still going to be that (they've) got a lot to do," Attrill said. Markets are now expecting the Fed funds rate to peak just under 4.9% by June, compared with earlier expectations of a peak of just below 5%.

Many on Wall Street remain convinced that a widely expected recession is likely to roil markets once again sometime this year. Also encouraging for investors was Powell's repeated references to disinflation - a falling rate of inflation. "I think they do see a path where you can get that soft landing, that Goldilocks-type scenario play out," he said. Banks and asset managers that have reiterated recession calls in recent weeks include BlackRock, Wells Fargo and Neuberger Berman. "Do people think (rate cuts) will be in response to inflation that has been coming down or something more dramatic, in terms of economic slowdown?

The rate hikes imposed by the Fed since March have now totaled 4.5 percentage points, with the policy rate now in a range between 4.50% and 4.75%, the highest since 2007. It is in part that resilience that has the central bank poised for "ongoing increases" in its policy interest rate. Stocks, modestly lower ahead of the Fed rate decision, turned sharply higher as Powell spoke. "If you were hoping for clear signs of an upcoming pause in interest rate hikes, you were left wanting. INFLATION TARGET REAFFIRMEDThe Fed statement indicated that any future rate increases would be in quarter-percentage-point increments, dropping a reference to the "pace" of future increases and instead referring to the "extent" of rate changes.

☆ Dollar holds gains after U.S. data; traders eye Fed next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoNEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - The dollar clung to modest gains against the euro on Friday after data showed falling U.S. consumer spending and cooling inflation, and as investors awaited a slew of central bank meetings next week. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, dropped 0.2% last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Data for November was revised lower to show spending slipping 0.1% instead of gaining 0.1% as previously reported. Data showed consumer price inflation in Japan's capital accelerated to a nearly 42-year peak this month, piling pressure on the BOJ to step away from stimulus. Attention now turns to a slew of central bank policy decisions, with the Fed, European Central Bank and Bank of England (BoE) all due to make rate decisions next week as they judge what policy adjustments may be required in their battle with rampant inflation against a tough global economic backdrop.

☆ Dollar ticks up ahead of central bank meetings next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Iain Withers | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File PhotoLONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters) - The dollar edged up on Friday to pull away from multi-month lows against the euro and sterling, as investors began to train their sights on a slew of major central bank meetings next week. The U.S. Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of England are all due to make rate decisions next week as they judge what policy adjustments may be required in their battle with rampant inflation against a tough global economic backdrop. The euro was last down 0.1% versus the dollar at $1.08760 , while sterling was down 0.4% at $1.23670 . The yen, meanwhile, rose against the dollar as heated Tokyo inflation readings spurred bets that a hawkish pivot from the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could be in the offing. The bank will make its next policy decision on Thursday, and is seen increasing by a half point.

☆ Dollar drops vs yen, near 9-month low to euro on central bank bets
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( Kevin Buckland | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar also sagged close to a nine-month low versus the euro, amid market expectations the European Central Bank next week will implement a rate hike twice as big as the Federal Reserve's. However, that was still well away from the 7-1/2-month trough of 127.215 reached last week as expectation built then for the central bank to tweak policy. When BOJ officials voted unanimously on Jan. 18 to keep stimulus settings unchanged, the currency pair bounced as high as 131.58. "If there are any bouts of yen weakness, I think the topside will continue to be capped by those expectations," Kadota said. For the week, the dollar is about flat against the yen, after swinging between gains and losses.

☆ Dollar clings to gains after U.S. data; traders eye Fed next week
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The dollar clung to modest gains against the euro on Friday after data showed falling U.S. consumer spending and cooling inflation, and as investors awaited a slew of central bank meetings next week. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, dropped 0.2% last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday. Data for November was revised lower to show spending slipping 0.1% instead of gaining 0.1% as previously reported. Data showed consumer price inflation in Japan's capital accelerated to a nearly 42-year peak this month, piling pressure on the BOJ to step away from stimulus. Not necessarily in terms of rates for next week, but more the forward guidance central banks will provide," Harvey said.

☆ Fed policymakers call for further rate hikes to beat inflation
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Howard Schneider | Lindsay Dunsmuir | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

(Reuters) -Federal Reserve policymakers on Wednesday signaled they will push on with more interest rate hikes, with several supporting a top policy rate of at least 5% even as inflation shows signs of having peaked and economic activity is slowing. REUTERS/Jason Reed“I just think we need to keep going, and we’ll discuss at the meeting how much to do,” Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said in an interview with the Associated Press. The remarks appeared to reflect a widely shared view among her fellow policymakers, most of whom as of December had penciled in a 5.00%-5.25% policy rate in coming months. Mester said that for her part she expects the Fed’s policy rate to need to go “a bit higher” than that, and stay there for some time to further slow inflation. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan also supports a slower rate hike pace ahead because of the uncertain outlook and the need to be flexible.

☆ Airlines remain bullish on travel demand despite mounting economic worries
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Rajesh Kumar Singh | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

CHICAGO, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. airlines posting strong financial results remain upbeat about travel demand, even as economists and analysts say the risk of an economic recession has gone up. If anything, they say, the relationship between passenger revenue and broader economy is returning to pre-pandemic trend. United estimates domestic passenger revenue used to account for about 0.5% of the country's GDP. It expects the trend to be restored this year, resulting in 15% higher revenue for the industry this year. "Demand remains strong, pricing is likely to remain favorable due to industry capacity constraints," said Cowen analyst Helane Becker.

☆ Fed up with facial recognition cameras monitoring your every move? Italian fashion may have the answer
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-16 | by ( Elliott Gotkine | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Facial recognition software immediately identifies the man as … a giraffe? While there, she read about how tenants in Brooklyn had fought back against their landlord’s plans to install a facial recognition entry system for their building. “This was the first time I heard about facial recognition,” she says. Whichever route they took, they had to test the images on a well-known object detection system called YOLO, one of the most commonly-used algorithms in facial recognition software. At the recent World Cup in Qatar, creative agency Virtue Worldwide came up with flag-themed face paint for fans seeking to fool the emirate’s legion of facial recognition cameras.

☆ Strikes in Britain set to intensify as teacher ballot results due
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-15 | by ( William James | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

[1/2] Rail workers that are members of the ASLEF union stand at a picket line outside Euston station while on strike, in London, Britain, January 5, 2023. REUTERS/Henry Nicholls/File PhotoLONDON, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Strikes disrupting swathes of the British economy look likely to intensify this week, with teachers ready to announce industrial action, according to the Sunday Times, and nurses warning their strikes could double in size next month. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's government, which sets pay levels in the publicly-funded health and education services, is already dealing with strikes in rail and other industries as wages increases fall behind rapidly rising prices. Last week, a strike ballot by a different teachers' union fell short of the required turnout threshold. Transport minister Mark Harper told Sky News on Sunday that any decision to strike by teachers would be regrettable.

Japan's Nikkei (.N225) fell 0.4% and the yen, which surged 2.7% against the dollar overnight, kept going and rose about 0.2% further to 128.65 per dollar. "No change in policy this month would be a setback for the yen," said Rabobank FX strategist Jane Foley. "However, we would look to buy the yen against the dollar on dips on anticipation of another (policy) move ... in the spring." INFLATION IN RETREATBeyond Japan, market sentiment was dominated by overnight U.S. December inflation data that landed more or less on consensus expectations. The U.S. dollar dropped 0.9% to a nine-month low of $1.0868 per euro and the risk-sensitive Australian dollar rose to a roughly five-month high at $0.6984.

☆ Morning bid: Obstacle course ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic said they expect Fed rates - now at 4.25% to 4.5% - will need to rise to a 5% to 5.25% range to sap inflation. The other big market obstacle of the week is the onset of the U.S. corporate earnings season. Four American banking giants - JPMorgan (JPM.N), Bank of America (BAC.N), Citigroup (C.N) and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) - report earnings on Friday. Diaried events and data releases that may provide direction to U.S. and world markets later on Tuesday:* U.S. Dec NFIB small business survey. * U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem and European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel all speak at Swedish central bank event.

☆ Global economy faces tougher year in 2023, IMF's Georgieva warns
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-01 | by ( Dan Burns | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Jan 1 (Reuters) - For much of the global economy, 2023 is going to be a tough year as the main engines of global growth - the United States, Europe and China - all experience weakening activity, the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Sunday. "For the first time in 40 years, China's growth in 2022 is likely to be at or below global growth," Georgieva said. In October's forecast, the IMF pegged Chinese gross domestic product growth last year at 3.2% - on par with the fund's global outlook for 2022. At that time, it also saw annual growth in China accelerating in 2023 to 4.4% while global activity slowed further. U.S. ECONOMY 'MOST RESILIENT'Meanwhile, Georgieva said, the U.S. economy is standing apart and may avoid the outright contraction that is likely to afflict as much as a third of the world's economies.

☆ New Fed research flags rising risk of U.S. recession
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The paper’s authors said that the unemployment rate bottoms out and begins to move higher ahead of recession in a highly reliable pattern. When this shift occurs the unemployment rate is signaling the onset of recession in about eight months, the paper said. The San Francisco Fed research, written by bank economist Thomas Mertens, said its innovation is to make the jobless rate change a forward-looking indicator. The San Francisco Fed paper noted that the Fed, as of its December forecasts, sees the unemployment rate rising next year amid its campaign of aggressive rate hikes aimed at cooling high levels of inflation. In 2023, the Fed sees the jobless rate jumping up to 4.6% in a year where it sees only modest levels of overall growth.

☆ Mexico peso seen resilient through economic slowdown in 2023: Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( Gabriel Burin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

BUENOS AIRES, Dec 7 (Reuters) - The Mexican peso will weaken only modestly in 2023 through a gathering economic slowdown as confidence in the country's moderate policies and manageable debt metrics remains high, a Reuters poll of currency strategists showed. The main challenges for the Mexican currency in the medium-term are a deteriorating economy and how Banxico, as the central bank is known, continues adapting to the U.S. Federal Reserve's anti-inflation strategy. The Mexican central bank has increased its key interest rate by 600 basis points since mid-2021 to 10.0%. read moreYear to date, the peso is up 3.9%, while the Brazilian real , has gained 5.5%. In the poll, Brazil's currency was forecast to strengthen 2.1% from this week's levels to 5.17 per U.S. dollar in one year.

☆ At November Fed meeting, officials flagged market resilience amid volatile conditions
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-23 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Those concerns were aired in meeting minutes for the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee’s Nov. 1-2 policy meeting, released Wednesday. Thus far, the Treasury market, which serves as the backbone of the world’s credit system, has held together, although there has been ample concern about low liquidity that’s made trading difficult. Fed officials have thus far described the market as resilient. Fed staff briefing officials concurred,The minutes flagged recent events in Britain as a point of concern. The Fed's top financial stability official, Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr, last week told Congress he was worried about "blowback" to the wider financial system from crypto-related failures.

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