Recession risk has jumped to 75% due to the potential for a trade ware under Trump, BCA Research said.
Trump's proposed tariffs could lower household income and depress corporate investments.
In a Friday note, Berezin increased the probability of an economic recession to 75% from 65%, citing the risk of a new trade war under Trump.
On the campaign trail, Trump proposed implementing universal tariffs of 10%-20% on goods imported into the country and a 60% tariff on goods from China.
Berezin cited a study from the Budget Lab at Yale that estimates Trump's proposed tariffs could reduce real disposable income for the median US household by $1,900-$7,600.
Persons:
Trump's, —, Peter Berezin, Donald Trump's, Berezin, Trump
Organizations:
Trump, BCA Research, Service, Yale
Locations:
China