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☆ Europe’s Economy Barely Avoids Recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Europe’s return to modest growth coincides with a pickup in China and a slowdown in the U.S. Photo: Nicolas Leblanc/Bloomberg NewsEurope’s economy skirted a recession at the start of the year, underlining the continent’s surprising resilience despite Russia’s war on Ukraine, signs of banking strains, and repeated interest-rate increases to combat stubbornly high inflation. The bloc’s return to modest growth coincides with a first-quarter pickup in China and a slowdown in the U.S. Taken together, these numbers suggest the global economy likely bounced back from a trough late last year, although headwinds from a restrictive monetary policy could put a lid on the revival.

☆ Europe’s Economy Avoids Recession—Just About
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-28 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

☆ Sanctions Against Russia Could Be Better, These Harvard Economists Say
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-22 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Ricardo Hausmann, a former Venezuelan official, leads a group of Harvard economists proposing ways to further degrade Russia’s economy. Photo: Christopher Goodney/Bloomberg NewsIn response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Western nations have targeted Moscow with the biggest coordinated package of economic restrictions ever levied against a major economy, including sanctions, export controls, asset freezes and energy price caps. Many of those measures, though, have proven less costly so far to Russia than some economists had expected and many officials in Washington and Brussels had hoped. Some Russian officials, meanwhile, had braced for more economic damage from the sanctions barrage by now.

☆ Global Economy Gets Boost but Inflation Worries Linger
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( Paul Hannon | Harriet Torry | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Surveys suggest the European Central Bank is on course to raise its key interest rate in May. Photo: KAI PFAFFENBACH/REUTERSU.S. and European business activity rose in April at the fastest pace in about a year, a boost for the global economy but a potentially complicating factor for central banks working to reduce high inflation. Demand for services drove the growth, according to surveys by data firm S&P Global covering U.S., eurozone and U.K. businesses. That kept pressure on price increases in regions where inflation last year reached its highest level in decades.

☆ U.K. Inflation Stays Above 10%, Raising Prospect of Further Interest-Rate Increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-19 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Higher prices for energy, food and other goods and services have weakened household spending in the U.K. Photo: Chris Ratcliffe/Bloomberg NewsLONDON—The U.K.’s annual rate of inflation was higher than expected in March and remained in double digits, a level of persistent price increases that could mean further hikes in interest rates in the coming months despite a weak economy. March consumer prices were 10.1% higher than a year earlier, a decline in the inflation rate from 10.4% in February, the U.K.’s statistics agency said Wednesday. That rate was higher than expected, with economists having forecast a drop to 9.8%. The core rate of inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy and food, was unchanged at 6.2%.

☆ Food Prices Are New Inflation Threat for Governments and Central Banks
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-09 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Food makes up the largest share of households’ budgets in most countries. Energy prices are falling back more than a year on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. But the other big cost of the war for households around the world continues to rise: food. In 12 months through March, prices of food, alcohol and tobacco were up 15.4% in the eurozone, while energy prices were down 0.9%. Food prices were up 10.2% in the U.S. in the 12 months through February, well ahead of energy at 5.2%.

Credit Suisse's investment bankers are not waiting around to find out if UBS will give them jobs. UBS executives have pulled no punches when discussing the future of Credit Suisse's investment banking teams and trading desks. Jeff CohenA two-decade Credit Suisse veteran, Cohen heads up Credit Suisse's leveraged and acquisition finance business from New York. Previously, Cohen was Credit Suisse's head of global credit products and global head of leveraged finance capital markets. Marco SuperinaA Credit Suisse veteran since 1997, Superina heads Credit Suisse's M&A efforts in the firm's native Switzerland.

☆ Eurozone Core Inflation Hits Record High
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Core inflation in the eurozone hit a record in March, a setback for central bankers whose rapid interest-rate rises have exacerbated financial sector strains and caused pains in part of the bloc’s economy. The fresh data increases the likelihood that the European Central Bank will raise its key rate again in May. It could also encourage other policy makers to explore alternative ways to cool prices rises, by targeting excessive profiteering by companies or inflationary wage increases.

Dividend stocks may be the way to go for investors as a recession becomes more likely, according to UBS. Dividend stocks on average outperformed the market by 4.5% during the 2001, 2008 and 2020 recessions, the bank said. "Dividend stocks can provide a margin of safety during uncertain times." Given this backdrop, UBS highlighted a slew of dividend stocks with big upsides, based on the bank's price targets. Analysts also forecast three-year dividend growth that's at least in the mid-single digits, in addition to sustainable payout ratios.

☆ Banking Strains, Inflation Threaten Global Economic Rebound
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-24 | by ( Paul Hannon | Harriet Torry | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Large parts of the global economy continue to show signs of a modest rebound after a sharp slowdown at the end of last year, but the improved outlook is threatened by stubbornly high inflation and banking strains in the U.S. and Europe. Business surveys published Friday recorded pickups in activity across Europe that were almost entirely driven by services providers, while Japan saw a similar acceleration that was aided by the arrival of tourists from China after the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions.

☆ Swiss Central Bank Lifts Key Rate, Declares End to Bank Crisis
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Swiss National Bank increased its key interest rate by a half-percentage point. Switzerland’s central bank raised its key interest rate Thursday and said the country’s bank crisis had ended, the latest sign that policy makers are determined to press down on inflation despite strains in the banking system. The Swiss National Bank increased its key interest rate by a half-percentage point to 1.5%, a move economists had expected before the banking strains that started in the U.S. spread to Switzerland. The central bank also indicated that it may again raise its key rate later this year.

☆ Bank of England Lifts Rates by Quarter Point, Following Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON—The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point Thursday, a fresh sign that policy makers around the world are determined to press down on inflation despite strains in the banking system. The central bank had previously indicated that it might pause a series of rate increases that dates back to December 2021, but an unexpected pickup in inflation during February helped persuade policy makers that another increase in borrowing costs was needed to cool price rises.

☆ Bank of England Lifts Key Rate by Quarter Percentage Point
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Bank of England in London. LONDON—The Bank of England raised its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point Thursday, a fresh sign that policy makers around the world are determined to press down on inflation despite strains in the banking system. The central bank had previously indicated that it might pause a series of rate increases that dates back to December 2021, but an unexpected pickup in inflation during February helped persuade policy makers that another increase in borrowing costs was needed to cool prices rises.

☆ Bank of England Lifts Key Rate
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/swiss-central-bank-lifts-key-rate-declares-end-to-bank-crisis-55f8dff2

☆ U.K. Inflation Resumes Its Rise, Defying Expectations
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-22 | by ( Paul Hannon | Max Colchester | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

This copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com. https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-inflation-resumes-its-rise-defying-expectations-b23e6aa0

☆ U.K. Economy Swings Back to Growth, Boosted by Premier League’s Return
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-10 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The Premier League returned to a full schedule of games after a halt for the World Cup. The U.K. economy returned to growth in January, boosted by a busy schedule of English Premier League soccer games after a pause for the World Cup. The U.K.’s statistics agency said that economic output was 0.3% higher in January than in December, having fallen by 0.5% then. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal last week had expected a rise of 0.1%.

The global economy is showing vigor despite rising borrowing costs and elevated energy and food prices, a sign that central banks may need longer than anticipated to bring inflation under control. Data from the U.S., China and Europe have shown surprising vitality in these regions’ economies since the start of 2023, confounding predictions from the World Bank and other economists that the global economy was set for one of its weakest years in recent decades.

☆ Eurozone Inflation Eases, but Core Measure Hits Record High
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-02 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Eurozone inflation eased in February for the fourth straight month, but a strong pickup in services prices makes it likely that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates in coming months. Despite the overall easing in price rises, inflation accelerated in many of the eurozone’s largest members—including Germany, France and Spain—underlines how difficult a task central bankers face in bringing it back under control. Strikes and labor unrest across the region are pushing wages higher, something that makes inflation stickier.

☆ Europe’s Economy Picks Up After Year of War in Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Businesses in the U.K. and the eurozone have benefited from improvements in supply chains and cooling inflation. Business activity in the eurozone and the U.K. increased faster than expected in February, a boost for the global economy and a new sign of the region’s resilience as Russia’s war on Ukraine is poised to enter its second year. Surveys of manufacturers and service providers released Tuesday also pointed to a cooling of inflation, with factories in the eurozone reporting that costs rose at the slowest pace since September 2020.

☆ Global Economy Shows Signs of Winter Resilience
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-21 | by ( Paul Hannon | David Harrison | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Businesses in the U.K. and the eurozone have benefited from improvements in supply chains and cooling inflation. Business activity in the U.S., the eurozone and the U.K. picked up in February, a boost for the global economy and a sign of resilience as Russia’s war on Ukraine is poised to enter its second year. Surveys of manufacturers and service providers released Tuesday also pointed to cooling inflation, with firms reporting that costs rose at the slowest pace since the fall of 2020.

☆ Ukraine War to Take Sharp Economic Toll in Eastern Europe
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-16 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

A clothing and homeware store in Jelgava, Latvia, one of the Eastern European countries whose economy is expected to contract this year, according to the EBRD. Russia’s war in Ukraine will cause a sharp slowdown in economic growth across Eastern Europe this year, deterring foreign investment and lifting energy prices and borrowing costs, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has warned. Most of the European countries that are closest to the front line showed surprising resilience during the first year of the war. But many economies in the region are more reliant on energy-intensive factories than their counterparts in Western Europe and they could see their market share erode as their costs increase.

☆ U.K. Inflation Cools but Wage Increases Keep Central Bank on Alert
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-15 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

There were some signs that the U.K. job market is loosening as some businesses cancel hiring plans. The U.K.’s annual rate of inflation fell for a third straight month in January and more sharply than expected, following a signal from the Bank of England that it may soon pause a series of rate rises that began at the end of 2021. Consumer prices in the U.K. were 10.1% higher than a year earlier, a slower rate of inflation than the 10.5% recorded in December as transport prices cooled, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday. That was a larger fall than the decline to 10.3% forecast by economists.

☆ U.K. Ekes Out Economic Growth, Boosted by World Cup
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON—The U.K.’s economy returned to growth as 2022 drew to a close, partly thanks to soccer fans driving up sales at pubs during the World Cup. But many economists still expect a recession and several years of anemic expansion. Britain’s economy grew at an annualized rate of 0.1% in the three months through December, having contracted 0.7% during the previous three months, the Office for National Statistics said Friday. That allowed the country to avoid a predicted recession, which is usually defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.

☆ Russia to Cut Oil Output in Response to Western Sanctions, Pushing Up Prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-10 | by ( Georgi Kantchev | Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

Russia said it plans to cut oil production by about 5% next month, making good on a threat by Russian President Vladimir Putin to retaliate against Western oil sanctions but also showing the limits of his leverage in global energy markets. Prices jumped on the move, but pared back some of those gains later in the day. Analysts said the relatively small size of the cuts isn’t likely to lead to sustained higher prices for consumers, especially considering the lackluster economic picture for big chunks of the oil-fueled global economy.

☆ BOE Raises Key Rate by Half Percentage Point, Signals It May Soon Pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-02 | by ( Paul Hannon | ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON—The Bank of England raised its key interest rate Thursday for a 10th straight policy meeting, but signaled it may soon pause that series as the annual rate of inflation falls and the economy falters. The U.K.’s central bank raised its bank rate to 4% from 3.5%, having begun to tighten monetary policy in December 2021 in response to a pickup in inflation that saw consumer prices rise 10.5% in the 12 months through December.

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