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And as the mountain of debt keeps piling up, and the government’s budget deficit remains massive, some bond traders are now joining politicians in decrying the government’s ever-growing financial obligation. Those bond traders are seemingly up in arms over the government’s gaping budget deficit — something that occurs when the government’s spending outstrips revenues — which currently stands at roughly $67 billion so far for the current fiscal year. For the full 2023 budget year, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that the deficit stood at a staggering $1.5 trillion. How do we manage the budget deficit? Our interest rate team is looking at the 10-year (US Treasury) yield to be closer to 4% than 5% next year.
Persons: , Jerome Powell, Bell, Joe Quinlan, It’s, it’s, what’s, You’d, Powell, ” Powell, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Treasury Department, Congressional, Office, Federal, Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, Treasury, Spelman College, US Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, US Commerce Department, University of Michigan Locations: Washington, Atlanta
US manufacturing stays depressed in November-ISM
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Kamil Krzaczynski/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsWASHINGTON, Dec 1(Reuters) - U.S. manufacturing remained subdued in November, according to a survey on Friday that also showed factory employment declining. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said that its manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 46.7 last month. According to the ISM, a PMI reading below 48.7 over a period of time generally indicates a contraction of the overall economy. This measure has not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing payrolls in the government's closely watched employment report. Manufacturing payrolls are expected to have rebounded in November as about 33,000 striking United Auto Workers union members returned to work.
Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, payrolls, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Reuters, United Auto Workers, Thomson Locations: Normal , Illinois, U.S
"Having come so far so quickly, the (Federal Open Market Committee) is moving forward carefully, as the risks of under- and over-tightening are becoming more balanced." But his remarks also reflected increased confidence that the current 5.25%-5.50% policy rate may well be adequate to complete the job. The Fed meets on Dec. 12-13 and is expected to leave its benchmark rate unchanged for the third meeting in a row. "The pace at which the economy is creating new jobs remains strong, and has been slowing toward a more sustainable level ... Shortly before Powell delivered his remarks, a key reading on the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector showed activity there remained subdued and factory employment declined.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Powell, Helene Gayle, Lisa Cook, Howard Schneider, Paul Simao Organizations: Monetary Fund's, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Spelman College, Fed, Spelman, Institute, Supply Management's, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Atlanta
Washington, DC CNN —US economic growth was even stronger in the third quarter than previously estimated, underscoring the economy’s remarkable resilience in the face of elevated inflation and high borrowing costs earlier this year. Wednesday’s latest reading reflects an even faster pace of growth than the blistering 4.9% rate the department initially estimated. Nonresidential fixed investment, or business spending, was revised up to a growth rate of 1.3% in the third quarter from a decline of 0.1%. Fourth-quarter spending likely won’t be as piping hot, however. Fed officials pay close attention to various facets of the US economy when deliberating monetary policy, including growth.
Persons: , Gregory Daco, , Christopher Waller, American Enterprise Institute . Waller, Michelle Bowman Organizations: DC CNN, Gross, Commerce, Consumer, Adobe Analytics, Institute for Supply Management, Employers, Atlanta Fed, Federal, , American Enterprise Institute ., Fed Locations: Washington, EY, Salt Lake City
Right now, it's up 7.7% year-over-year and continues to rise, prompting Kantrowitz to say it's a "huge red flag for me." Still, while the unemployment rate is up to 3.9% from its 3.4% low earlier this year, unemployment claims have not spiked meaningfully. Piper Sandler"Regarding employment – I see enough data that has me convinced that we are at the very onset of a recession right now," Kantrowitz said. If the unemployment rate continues to tick upward, even slightly, it will likely trigger the Sahm rule mentioned above. Plenty of market onlookers see a recession in 2024, including DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffery Gundlach and Citadel founder Ken Griffin.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Michael Kantrowitz, Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler, Sahm's, It's, Claudia Sahm, Jon Wolfenbarger, Wolfenbarger, Jeffery Gundlach, Ken Griffin, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Brian Moynihan Organizations: Federal, Business, Institute for Supply Management's, Investor, Federal Reserve, National Federal, Independent, Treasury, Conference, DoubleLine Capital, Citadel, Bank of America
After making three trades this week, we're heading into a shortened trading week. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia YTD Shares of Nvidia closed Nov. 14 at a record high of $496.56 each. Here's the full rundown of all the important domestic data in the week ahead, which also features a slew of earnings from brand-name retailers. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust's portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade.
Persons: FactSet, It's, Jim Cramer, NIU, Jack, JACK, Jim Cramer's, Jim, New York Stock Exchange Michael Nagle Organizations: Fed, TJX, Palo Alto Networks, PMI, ISM, Institute for Supply Management, Nvidia, Apple, Technologies, Video Communications, Agilent Technologies, Baidu, Abercrombie, Fitch, Burlington Stores, Eagle Outfitters, Dick's Sporting, Autodesk, HP, Nordstrom, Urban Outfitters, Deere & Company, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Getty Locations: U.S, China
Strikes at car and truck plants are likely to have a widespread impact on manufacturing activity given their large supply chains. Energy consumption by industrial users steadied over the third quarter, which was consistent with the worst of the manufacturing downturn being over. The stabilisation of both diesel and industrial electricity sales in the summer was consistent with manufacturing activity steadying ahead of a renewed expansion. Because the industrial downturn has been long but shallow, distillate inventories remain well below the long-term seasonal average. Return to expansion would likely cause diesel stocks to deplete rapidly and put upward pressure on industrial prices quickly.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, John Kemp, Louise Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, Institute, Supply, Federal Reserve, Global, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: IceStone, New York City , New York, U.S, Chartbook
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report from the Labor Department on Wednesday also showed layoffs dropping to a nine-month low. There were 1.50 job openings for every unemployed person in September, slightly up from 1.49 in August and way above the pre-pandemic ratio of 1.2. Data for August was revised lower to show 9.497 million job openings instead of the previously reported 9.610 million. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.250 million job openings in September. Job openings dropped 43,000 in federal government and there were 41,000 open positions in the information industry.
Persons: Christopher Rupkey, Conrad DeQuadros, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Organizations: Federal Reserve, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Treasury, Reuters, Brean, Institute for Supply Management, United Auto Workers, UAW, Detroit's Big, Ford Motor, General Motors, Chrysler, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, U.S, New York
Washington, DC CNN —The Fed’s fight against inflation is about to enter a new phase, but the central bank’s enormous balance sheet will continue to play a key role. The Fed also manages a multi-trillion-dollar balance sheet that accounts for trillions in government securities and lists how much currency is in circulation. For over a year now, the Fed has been steadily shrinking its balance sheet to help cool the economy. The Fed’s balance sheet is currently at around $7.9 trillion, down from its peak of $9 trillion in early 2022 right before the runoff. They also see alternative scenarios for the end of the balance sheet runoff if there isn’t a recession.
Persons: that’s, Lael Brainard, What’s, Wells, Jerome Powell, JPMorgan Chase’s Jamie Dimon, Jamie Dimon, Krystal Hur, Dimon —, Mr, Dimon, JPMorgan Chase, what’s, Estee Lauder, Kraft Heinz, Yum, Bausch, Eli Lilly, Molson Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN, Congress, Fed, Wall Street, JPMorgan, JPMorgan Chase, CNN, HSBC, McDonald’s, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Bank of Japan, Pfizer, Caterpillar, Marathon Petroleum, Sirius XM, Anheuser, Busch, BP, Chesapeake Energy, US Labor Department, Global, Board, CVS, GSK, Humana, Reuters, Apollo Global Management, Brands, Garmin, Cruise Line Holdings, Qualcomm, Airbnb, PayPal, MetLife, Aflac, AIG, Allstate, Prudential, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, ConocoPhillips, Starbucks, Duke Energy, Shopify, Ferrari, Marriott International, Moderna, Fox, Molson Coors, Hyatt, Apple, Motorola, Bank of England, Dominion Energy, Gartner, Restaurant Brands Locations: Washington, Treasuries, China’s, Mondelez, DoorDash, Avis, Shell, Cigna
The S&P 500 is up 7.6% year-to-date. Only about 40% of analyst ratings changes for S&P 500 companies are upgrades. While the S&P 500 is up over 7% this year, Edwards cited it as another data point covering up the economy's true health. Their outsized contribution to the index's performance is evidenced by the returns of the S&P 500 equal-weighted index, Edwards said, which is down by 5% this year. In the equal-weighted index, each individual S&P 500 constituent's performance impacts the overall index's performance the same.
Persons: Albert Edwards, " Edwards, Edwards, Freddie Kruger, , Russell Organizations: Generale Chief Global, Societe Generale They're, Societe Generale, National Federation for Independent, Institute, Supply, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, RBC Capital Markets
US manufacturing output rises solidly in September
  + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Manufacturing output rose 0.4% last month, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday. Durable goods manufacturing output rose at a 2.3% annualized rate, which was offset by a 2.4% pace of decline in nondurable manufacturing. Motor vehicle and parts output rose 0.3% last month after declining 4.1% in August. Mining output rose 0.4% after gaining 0.2% in August. Overall industrial production rose 0.3% in September after being unchanged in August.
Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Reuters, United Auto Workers, UAW, General Motors, Ford, Chrysler, Institute for Supply, Utilities, Thomson Locations: Normal , Illinois, U.S, Kentucky
In turn, higher rates will dampen interest-sensitive expenditure and likely lead to slower growth in oil consumption in 2024. Services are less energy-intensive but more labour-intensive than manufacturing, so the sector’s inflation rate tends to be more persistent and a better indicator of the overall amount of inflationary pressure within the economy. Most rate traders anticipate the central bank will be forced to keep overnight rates higher for longer to squeeze persistent inflation out of the economy. In the short term, the renewed expansion of the U.S. manufacturing and service sectors is supporting oil consumption and prices. In the medium term, however, the higher-for-longer rates needed to bring inflation back to target will likely depress business activity and slow oil consumption growth in 2024.
Persons: Eduardo Munoz, John Kemp, Rod Nickel Organizations: Exxon, REUTERS, Institute, Supply, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Newport , New Jersey, U.S, United States, Europe, Ukraine
The September jobs report that the Labor Department will issue Friday will show just how much of that durability remains. A growing body of evidence, though, suggests that the job market is cooling — something Fed officials would like to see. Businesses often raise their prices to cover their higher labor costs. Fewer Americans are quitting their jobs after a surge in resignations in the aftermath of the pandemic. Most people quit to take other jobs with higher pay, so the decline in quitting indicates that workers now see fewer available opportunities elsewhere.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Mary Daly, ” Daly, Goldman Sachs Organizations: WASHINGTON, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Economic, of New Locations: United States, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, of New York
Trade balanceExports of goods and services increased 1.6% to $256.0 billion. Goods imports dropped 0.9% to $256.0 billion amid declines in imports of consumer and capital goods, potentially flagging softening domestic demand amid higher borrowing costs. Cell phones and other household goods accounted for the drop in consumer goods imports. The decrease in capital goods imports reflected declines in semiconductors and electric apparatus. Services imports increased $0.1 billion to $58.4 billion, supported by travel and other business services.
Persons: Andrew Kelly, Christopher Rupkey, Unadjusted, nonfarm payrolls, Oscar Munoz, Goldman Sachs, Veronica Clark, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Reuters, Employers, Institute for Supply Management, United Auto Workers, UAW, Ford, General Motors, Chrysler, Treasury, Challenger, Labor, Securities, Commerce Department, Goods, Services, Citigroup, Thomson Locations: Manhattan , New York City , New York, U.S, WASHINGTON, New York, Ohio, California
Yen gets some relief as dollar pulls back overnight
  + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The yen got some much needed relief as the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields both steadied slightly lower on Thursday after mixed U.S. economic data overnight had markets lowering the odds of the Federal Reserve's raising interest rates again this year. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six peers, held near overnight levels at 106.78. Longer dated U.S. Treasury yields eased from 16-year highs after the data and remained off recent highs in the Asian morning. The yen, which tends to be sensitive to U.S. yields, last traded around 148.85 yen , down almost 0.2% from late U.S. levels and off Tuesday's low of 150.165. Sterling traded at $1.2139, off of Wednesday's fresh low of $1.20385 per dollar.
Persons: Kyle Rodda, Sterling Organizations: U.S, Treasury, ADP, Institute for Supply, PMI, Bank of, Japan Locations: Kawasaki, Japan, U.S
Renewed manufacturing growth will boost industrial energy consumption, especially for diesel, but with inventories still low, prices are set to escalate rapidly, rekindling concerns about inflation. SOFT LANDING? The mid-cycle slowdown or “soft landing” of 1989/90 and the cycle-ending “hard landing” of 1990/91 are usually considered as one episode. Blinder has argued the Federal Reserve would have achieved a soft landing if oil prices had not spiked for unrelated reasons. Related columns:- Global diesel shortage boosts prices (September 13, 2023)- Prolonged U.S. manufacturing slowdown barely dents energy use (September 5, 2023)- U.S. diesel prices surge anticipating a soft landing (August 11, 2023)- U.S. manufacturing slowdown fails to rebuild diesel stocks (August 2, 2023)John Kemp is a Reuters market analyst.
Persons: Bing Guan, Alan Blinder, Blinder, Saddam Hussein’s, , Saddam Hussein, Alan Greenspan, John Kemp, Alexander Smith Organizations: Angeles Refinery, California Air Resources Board, Institute, Supply, Federal Reserve, Reserve, Global, U.S, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Angeles, California, Carson , California, U.S, Kuwait, Blinder, United States, Europe, China
Treasury yields later receded on a cooler-than-expected U.S. private payrolls report that helped stocks on Wall Street rebound from Tuesday's sharp sell-off. "The market was so over-sold that it was looking for a catalyst to rally on and found it in ADP." The yield on 10-year Treasury notes touched 4.884%, a fresh 16-year high, while 30-year Treasury yields rose above 5% for the first time since August 2007. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsAustralian, Canadian and British government bond yields have also surged this week. Gold prices crept lower for the eighth consecutive session as elevated Treasury yields amid expectations that the Fed will keep rates higher for longer weighed on investor sentiment.
Persons: Kim Rupert, Rupert, Rhys Williams, Brendan McDermid, Kit Juckes, Brent, Herbert Lash, Tom Wilson, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore, Will Dunham, Mark Potter Organizations: Treasury, ADP, Management, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Bank of Japan, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights Australian, U.S ., Thomson Locations: San Francisco, Bryn Mawr , Pennsylvania, U.S, New York City, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Tokyo, Russia, London, Sydney
US services sector growth slows moderately
  + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( Lucia Mutikani | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +7 min
The survey's measure of new orders received by services businesses dropped to 51.8, the lowest level since December, from 57.5 in August. PRICES REMAIN ELEVATEDDespite the slowdown in new orders, services businesses continued to face higher prices. A gauge of prices paid by services businesses for inputs was unchanged at 58.9. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid measure as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. The ISM's gauge of services sector employment dipped to 53.4 from 54.7 in August, which mostly reflected supply issues.
Persons: Amira Karaoud, Kurt Rankin, tightens, September's, Goldman Sachs, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao, Andrea Ricci, Will Dunham Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Institute for Supply Management, Federal Reserve, PNC Financial, United Auto Workers, Retailers, Treasury, Fed, ADP, Conference Board, Stanford Digital Economy, Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, Goldman, BLS, Thomson Locations: Louisville, U.S, WASHINGTON, Pittsburgh
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 26, 2023. While the 30-year Treasury yield crossed above 5% for the first time since August 2007, the 10-year and five-year yields hit their highest since 2007. The CBOE volatility index (.VIX), Wall Street's "fear gauge", briefly hit a five-month high and topped its long-term average of 20. A day after U.S. job openings unexpectedly rose in August, investors will closely monitor September ADP National Employment data at 8:15 a.m. Reporting by Ankika Biswas and Shashwat Chauhan in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Kevin McCarthy, Mark Haefele, Haefele, Austan Goolsbee, Michelle Bowman, Eli Lilly, LLY.N, Mike Mason, Ankika Biswas, Shashwat Chauhan, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Apple, U.S . House Republicans, Treasury, Microsoft, Nvidia, Dow e, Nasdaq, Federal, UBS Global Wealth, Institute, Supply, PMI, Chicago, Traders, Dow, Intel, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Bengaluru
US service sector slows modestly in September -ISM survey
  + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Despite the slowdown in new orders, services inflation remained elevated. The services sector is at the center of the Fed's battle to bring inflation down to its 2% target. Services prices tend to be stickier and less responsive to rate hikes. Some economists view the ISM services prices paid measure as a good predictor of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation. A measure of services sector employment fell to 53.4 from 54.7 in August.
Persons: Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S
Morning Bid: This Fed's not for turning
  + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. That thought was echoed by Cleveland Fed chief Loretta Mester, who said: "I suspect we may well need to raise the fed funds rate once more this year." Either way, this is not the sound of a Fed who thinks the inflation battle is won. Fed hawkishness, however, has kept futures markets pricing a 50-50 chance of another quarter point rate hike to the 5.50-5.75% range by year-end. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Jason Reed, Mike Dolan, they've, Michelle Bowman, Loretta Mester, Michael Barr, hawkishness, Raphael Bostic, Susan Fenton Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Reserve, Cleveland Fed, Institute, Supply, Bank of Japan, Reserve Bank of Australia, Big Tech, Atlanta Federal Reserve, Treasury, McCormick, PMI, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S
Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes are seen with a currency exchange rate graph in this illustration picture taken June 16, 2022. "It's the feeling that the U.S. economy can stomach higher interest rates for a little bit longer," said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "Implicitly it also means that the Fed might not be so quick to cut rates next year either," he said. The Japanese yen weakened 0.31% versus the greenback at 149.77, after falling to 149.90. Investors have been closely watching for signs of intervention in the Japanese currency by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).
Persons: Florence Lo, Kevin McCarthy, Bipan Rai, Edward Moya, Michelle Bowman, Shunichi Suzuki, Chuck Mikolajczak, Marguerita Choy, Alison Williams Organizations: U.S, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management, Congress, Democratic, Republican, Treasury, CIBC Capital Markets, Investors, Bank of Japan, Fed, Bank of Japan's, Japan's Finance, Thomson Locations: U.S, North America, Toronto, New York
A separate report from the Commerce Department showed construction spending increased 0.5% in August after rising 0.9% in July, lifted by outlays on single- and multi-family housing. Spending on private construction projects rose 0.5%, with investment in residential construction advancing 0.6% after increasing 1.6% in the prior month. The construction spending report showed outlays on multi-family housing projects rose 0.6% in August. Spending on new single-family construction projects rose 1.7%. Spending on manufacturing construction projects shot up 1.2%.
Persons: Kamil Krzaczynski, Paul Ashworth, outlays, Freddie Mac, Biden, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, North America Economist, Capital Economics, Reuters, United Auto Workers, Treasury, Commerce Department, Thomson Locations: Normal , Illinois, U.S, WASHINGTON, Toronto, Panama, China, United States, State
US stocks fell as the 10-year bond yield jumped over 11 basis points, nearing 4.7%. An Institute for Supply Management report showed manufacturing improved in September. AdvertisementAdvertisementUS stocks finished mixed Monday as comments from Federal Reserve officials gave investors reason to expect restrictive policy to continue. Through the day, bond traders continued to sell off Treasury holdings, causing the 10-year bond yield to swing up 11.4 basis points to 4.685%. An Institute for Supply Management report showed manufacturing improved in September.
Persons: Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, , Jerome Powell Organizations: An Institute for Supply Management, Service, Federal Reserve, Institute for Supply Management, Dow Jones Locations: Here's
The public will continue to support them – that is until the strikes begin to affect Americans’ daily lives. CNN reached out to the Justice Department for comment but has not received a response. The US Labor Department releases August figures on job openings, quits, hires and layoffs. The US Labor Department reports the number of worker filings for jobless benefits in the week ended September 30. The US Labor Department releases September data on the state of the job market, including payroll gains, wage growth and the unemployment rate.
Persons: , ” Andrew Flowers, , Eva Rothenberg, Suisse’s, Jerome Powell, Patrick Harker, Michael Barr, John Williams, Loretta Mester, Raphael Bostic, Michelle Bowman, Levi Strauss, Tom Barkin, Mary Daly Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, DC CNN —, Gallup, Guild of America, Teamsters, Reno, United Auto Workers, UAW, Toyota, Honda, CNN, Nationwide, UBS, DOJ, US Department of Justice, Credit Suisse, “ UBS, CS, Bloomberg, Justice Department, P Global, Institute for Supply Management, McCormick, US Labor Department, Atlanta Fed, Constellation Brands, Conagra, Co, US Commerce Department, Carnival Corp Locations: Washington, United States, Hollywood, Las Vegas, Germany, Russia
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