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☆ It's time to chill with al the recession talk
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-06 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

New York CNN —In 2021, a bunch of economists and policy makers underestimated the inflation that was taking root around the world. In 2022, as inflation hit 40-year-highs and the Fed ramped up interest rates, many of those commentators went full-on gloomy — predicting a recession was all but inevitable. And that makes it hard, if not impossible, to imagine a recession anytime soon. “Any concern the economy is in recession or close to a recession should be completely dashed by these numbers,” Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told CNN on Friday. “The economy is further away from recession than ever,” wrote Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at Fwdbonds.

☆ 3 key takeaways from the jaw-dropping January jobs report
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-03 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Earlier this week, the consensus estimate among economists was that the US economy likely added about 185,000 jobs in January. But the economy had other ideas, adding more than half a million jobs in January. Here are three key things to take away from Friday’s jobs report. The report shocked Wall Street economistsThe headlines that came at 8:30 am ET Friday left economists stunned: America added 517,000 jobs last month. Much of that speculation centered on the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening, which aimed to wring inflation from the economy.

☆ Liz Young: I still want to be cautious despite bright spots in earnings, econ data
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-27 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailLiz Young: I still want to be cautious despite bright spots in earnings, econ dataLiz Young, SoFi's head of investment strategy, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the recent market performance, what goes into Young's calculus, and more.

☆ German inflation rate to ease over course of 2023 - econ minister
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

BERLIN, Jan 26 (Reuters) - German inflation will remain high at the beginning of 2023 before easing over the course of the year, Economy Minister Robert Habeck said on Thursday. "We have broken the inflation trend," Habeck said in his address to the Bundestag regarding the annual economic report. Inflation is seen at 6% in 2023, as energy prices ease following the initial shock of the energy crisis triggered by the Ukraine war, according to the economic report published on Wednesday. Regarding the economic report for 2023, he said the numbers were not good, but significantly better than feared some months ago. In 2024, inflation will be lower than in 2023 and growth will be higher, he added.

☆ 'Dr Doom' Nouriel Roubini says 'literally 90% of crypto is a scam' and Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX are not outliers in the market
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

"Dr. Doom" economist Nouriel Roubini told Yahoo Finance Live that 90% of crypto is a scam. He described the stricken industry as a "total real-bubble Ponzi scheme that is going bust." The former NYU professor called most crypto execs "crooks" and said FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried is not an outlier. "A total real-bubble Ponzi scheme that is going bust." FTX filed for bankruptcy in November after his crypto exchange lost at least $8 billion of customer funds.

In that light, the Fed's interest rate hiking cycle is close to an end. That is still well above the Fed's target, but the speed and direction of travel since June's four-decade high of 9.1% is clear. U.S. breakeven inflation rates - the gap between yields on inflation-protected Treasuries and regular notes - reflect this. The two-year breakeven inflation rate this week fell as low as 2.02%, the lowest since December 2020. This will drive down the average inflation rate, whatever the time horizon.

☆ Morning bid: Obstacle course ahead
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Atlanta Fed chief Raphael Bostic said they expect Fed rates - now at 4.25% to 4.5% - will need to rise to a 5% to 5.25% range to sap inflation. The other big market obstacle of the week is the onset of the U.S. corporate earnings season. Four American banking giants - JPMorgan (JPM.N), Bank of America (BAC.N), Citigroup (C.N) and Wells Fargo (WFC.N) - report earnings on Friday. Diaried events and data releases that may provide direction to U.S. and world markets later on Tuesday:* U.S. Dec NFIB small business survey. * U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem and European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel all speak at Swedish central bank event.

☆ Stocks in 2023: Many strategists think prices will be higher but earnings lower
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

I noted last week that there is an unusual divergence in thinking among Wall Street strategists for earnings and prices in 2023. Yet, in 2023, strategists do not seem to agree on this. A survey of 22 strategists indicated the average price target for the S & P 500 for year-end 2023 was 4,078. That would be about 7% higher than where the S & P is now. It means "patient accumulation" of what seems like odd choices, including China ADRs and what Emanuel calls "Misperceived Value" stocks.

☆ The Lehman Brothers of Crypto: Here's how the fall of Sam Bankman-Fried's FTX compares to the collapse that sparked the Great Financial Crisis
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-14 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

It gives maybe the clearest, most entertaining breakdown of how many, many very bad bets on subprime mortgages kickstarted the 2008 Financial Crisis. The most serious domino to fall 14 years ago was Lehman Brothers, the classic too-big-to-fail behemoth that did in fact go under. All this is a roundabout way of saying the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's crypto exchange, FTX, is severe and dramatic enough to warrant its own movie in a few years. Reminisce with me for a moment: In the years leading up to 2008, Lehman Bros loaded up its balance sheet with huge amounts of subprime mortgage debt. Lehman went under, and the world sunk into its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

☆ Italy econ minister says lots of departments involved in TIM plans
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-11 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

ROME, Nov 11 (Reuters) - A potential takeover of Telecom Italia (TLIT.MI) by state lender CDP is something that needs to be discussed by ministers from a number of departments, Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti said on Friday. Giorgetti was asked about the proposal on the sidelines of a news conference. The idea has been floated as a potential alternative to TIM's own plan to do a deal with CDP for its network grid to help create a national fibre champion. The minister had earlier told the news conference that he had confidence in Italy's economic forecasts, calling them "prudent" and in line with those due to be unveiled by the European Commission. Writing by Keith Weir, editing by Alvise ArmelliniOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Chinese investments in German semiconductor industry face higher hurdles - econ minister
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

BERLIN, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Chinese investments in Germany's semiconductor industry face higher hurdles, said German Economy Ministry Robert Habeck on Tuesday, adding that this also applies to a planned takeover of Elmos' (ELGG.DE) chip factory. Reporting by Markus Wacket, Writing by Miranda Murray, Editing by Rachel MoreOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Taiwan exports likely contracted again in October- Reuters poll
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

SummarySummary Companies reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/econ-polls?RIC=TWCPIY%3DECIExports median forecast -6% y/y (prior month -5.3%)Imports median forecast -3.5% y/y (prior month -2.4%)Balance median forecast $4.905 bln (prior month $5.02 bln)CPI median forecast +2.7% y/y (prior month +2.75%)TAIPEI, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Taiwan's exports likely contracted in October for the second month in a row, amid fears of a global recession, uncertainties due to the war in Ukraine, and COVID-19 flare-ups in China, according to a Reuters poll. Taiwan, a global hub for chip production and a key supplier to Apple Inc (AAPL.O), is one of Asia's leading exporters of technology goods. Exports last month were estimated to have dropped 6% from a year earlier, a Reuters poll of 22 analysts showed on Monday, slightly faster than the 5.3% contraction in September. Taiwan's finance ministry had predicted October exports could contract in a range of 3% to 6% from a year earlier. Poll compiled by Anant Chandak and Carol Lee; Reporting by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Ana Nicolaci da CostaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ America is facing a dramatic diesel shortage that could get even worse
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-01 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

But trucks continued to deliver goods around the country, so diesel demand stayed elevated. With European nations weaning off Russian energy, competition has increased in the diesel market due to the influx of buyers. Markets are panicking, so diesel prices will climb higher and higher, which will spark behavioral changes in consumers and producers. "Higher prices make the profitability of refining diesel go much higher," he said. The mechanism to do that is simply through diesel prices rising."

☆ Wall Street's rising stars admit their biggest career mistakes — from missing out on lucrative bets to taking too much on — and what they learned from them
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-24 | by ( Alex Morrell | Alyson Velati | Asia Martin | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +17 min

Vinay Trivedi, a vice president at General Atlantic focusing on the technology sector. I don't think we necessarily transitioned fast enough to how people learn if we're only doing audio from home. - David Israel, 27, vice president at Credit SuisseAngel Pu Shum is a principal within Warburg Pincus's technology group. -Allison Boxer, 29, senior vice president and economist at PIMCONoah Zerance, a vice president with Bank of America's global sustainable-finance group. and the response would be, 'Well, we don't know how we do it yet.

☆ An extremely reliable recession indicator just signaled that a downturn is coming. The top portfolio manager at a $232 billion firm breaks down what that means for stocks and investors — and shares 2
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-23 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

Yields on 3-month Treasury bills and 10-year Treasury notes inverted last week. Peter Essele believes stocks will behave differently this time around, however. When people talk about an inverted yield curve as a recession harbinger, they're usually referring to the yield spread between 2-year and 10-year Treasury notes. But the inversion of yields on the 3-month bill and the 10-year note is a rarer occurrence, and therefore a better recession indicator, according to some economists. While 2-year yields rose higher that 10-year yields this past spring, yields on the 3-month note surpassed 10-year yields just this week.

☆ The econ Nobel offers a timely warning about central banks’ power
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

New York CNN Business —The Nobel in economics is sort of the step-cousin of the Nobel family. Some scholars really dislike the economics prize, including one of Nobel’s own descendants, who dismissed it as a “PR coup by economists.”But hey, it still comes with a cash prize. In short, his work demonstrates that banks’ failures are often a cause, not merely a consequence, of financial crises. The Nobel committee has been known to play politics (see: that time Barack Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize after being in office for just eight months). And right now, it is using its spotlight to call attention to the high-stakes gamble playing out at central banks around the world, most notably the Fed.

☆ Possible extension of Germany's nuclear power at risk -econ ministry
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

But disagreements within the German cabinet could jeopardize the possible lifespan extension for the Isar II power plant, a spokesperson for the Economy Ministry told Reuters. The plant operator needs clarity on the government's plans before starting the maintenance, the Economy Ministry spokesperson said. Monday's decision was delayed due to objections from the finance ministry, a source told Reuters. The ministry is run by the Free Democrats party, which has been demanding a longer lifespan extension for the reactors. "The finance ministry is of the opinion that the proposed continued operation of only two power plants alone is not sufficient," a finance ministry source said.

☆ The Bank of England is snapping up bonds to stabilize debt markets — but that goes against its aim of stemming inflation. Here's what you want to know.
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-29 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Friday eve means the weekend's just around the corner, but it seems like nobody told the British bond market. The balancing act, at worst, could mean a calamity for the British economy and prolonged volatility in markets. And at best, policymakers thread the needle and stabilize markets, tame inflation, and regain the confidence of traders and everyday folks dealing with a tough economy. A weaker currency means imports get more expensive, and higher bond yields mean government borrowing gets more expensive. What will it take for bond market traders to regain confidence in the UK debt market?

☆ «Наступает решающий момент». Чокой о решении ЕС предоставить Молдове €600 млн макрофинансовой помощи
▼ + stars: | 2021-06-02 | by ( ) newsmaker.md time to read: +1 min

Исполняющий обязанности премьер-министра Аурелиу Чокой приветствовал решение Европейской комиссии (ЕК) одобрить план восстановления экономики Молдовы, согласно которому страна получит около €600 млн макрофинансовой помощи. x«Мы благодарны Еврокомиссии за запуск плана восстановления экономики Молдовы. @EUinMoldova https://t.co/TK4LfQvztw — Aureliu Ciocoi (@AureliuCiocoi) June 2, 2021Ранее Еврокомиссия одобрила план восстановления экономики Молдовы, согласно которому страна получит около €600 млн макрофинансовой помощи. Глава ЕК Урсула фон дер Ляйнен отметила, что макрофинансовая помощь Молдове — это попытка ЕС помочь стране преодолеть финансовый кризис, чтобы «реализовать амбициозную программу реформ». В ЕК также подчеркнули, что реализация плана восстановления экономики Молдовы зависит от нескольких условий- власти страны должны обеспечить прогресс структурных реформ в системе правосудия и в области борьбы с коррупцией.

Persons: Аурелиу Чокой, Чокой, Урсула фон дер Ляйнен Organizations: €, Европейская комиссия (ЕК), Еврокомиссия, ЕК Locations: Moldova, Молдова, ЕС

☆ RfP - Provision of IT services for Development of the Chamber of Comerce and Industry’s modules for digitization of Certificates of Origin (eCON) and Force Majeure certificates (eAAIJ)
▼ + stars: | 2021-01-20 | by ( Alte Articole | ) www.civic.md time to read: 1 min

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