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☆ Morning Bid: Megacaps scatter in the cloud
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. But after the S&P500 staged an impressive 0.7% bounce on Tuesday, futures were back in the red again ahead of the open. The negativity cut across what was otherwise a more upbeat macro picture and a calmer bond market following recent ructions. Chinese developer Country Garden (2007.HK) is deemed in default on a dollar bond for the first time, Bloomberg News reported. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Alphabet's, Microsoft's, Baker Hughes, Teradyne, Hess, Jerome Powell, Barbara Lewis Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Big Tech, Google, Microsoft, Meta, IBM, Boeing, Bloomberg News, Treasury, Bank of Canada, Deutsche Bank, United Health, General Dynamics, Whirlpool, Otis, Hilton, U.S, Reuters, PMI, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, HK, United States, Europe, Worldline, Germany, Ameriprise, EQT, Washington

☆ World oil, gas, coal demand to peak by 2030, IEA says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Alex Lawler | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The report from the IEA, which advises industrialised countries, contrasts with the view of oil producer group the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which sees oil demand rising long after 2030 and calls for trillions in new oil sector investment. In its annual World Energy Outlook released on Tuesday, the IEA said peaks in oil, natural gas and coal demand were visible this decade in its scenario based on governments' current policies - the first time this has happened. "The transition to clean energy is happening worldwide and it's unstoppable. "Governments, companies and investors need to get behind clean energy transitions rather than hindering them." The IEA also sees China's role as a key source of energy demand growth changing.

Persons: Sun, Siphiwe, Fatih Birol, Alex Lawler, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Kendal Power, REUTERS, International Energy Agency, Organization of, Petroleum, trillions, Energy, IEA, U.S, Thomson Locations: Kendal, Witbank, Mpumalanga, South Africa, Paris, China, OPEC

☆ Morning Bid: Big Tech reports as bond yields recoil
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The two tech giants report after the bell on Tuesday, with Meta (META.O) following on Wednesday and Amazon (AMZN.O) on Thursday. Partly lifted by the year's artificial intelligence craze, the tech behemoths have clearly flattered year-to-date gains of 10% in the overall S&P500. And yet the seemingly endless squeeze in bond markets since midyear has seen megacap indexes (.NYFANG) retreat some 12% from their highs for the year. The upshot of the whole picture is to give U.S. stock futures a lift ahead of the open on Tuesday - with Asia and European bourses in positive territory too as bond markets stabilised. Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields held about 4.83% - some 19 basis points below Monday's peak at 5.02%.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Bill Ackman, Clark, Chubb, Paccar, Centene, Sherwin, Williams, Archer, David Evans Organizations: NVIDIA Corp, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Mike Dolan Big Tech, Microsoft, Meta, Treasuries, U.S, Bank of England, Treasury, Britain's FTSE, Barclays, P Global, Richmond Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Texas Instruments, Verizon, General Electric, NextEra Energy, HCA Healthcare, General Motors, Halliburton, Dow, Waste Management, Daniels, Midland, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, United States, Asia, European, Britain's, Philadelphia, Danaher, Fiserv, Kimberly, Spotify, Dover, Nucor

☆ 5 things investors should know about a coming recession, according to Bank of America
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-24 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The latest Bloomberg poll shows forecasters give 55% odds for a US recession in the next 12 months. Bank of America broke down the top factors to watch for ahead of a potential downturn. Third, investors should also understand that recessions typically do not last long. On average, recessions last just over 10 months, Bank of America said. Stock returns from post-recession lows have proved historically strong, with an average of 19.7% 3-month returns, 28% 6-month returns, and 43.7% 12-month returns.

Persons: —, Merrill, Joseph P, Quinlan, Stock Organizations: Bloomberg, Bank of America, of, Service, BofA Private Bank, National Bureau of Economic Research, Federal Locations: of America's

At least 10 Republicans have announced that they will run for speaker or that they are considering doing so since Friday, when the party cast aside Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio as its latest nominee for the leadership post. A flood of lawmakers began campaigning just hours after Republicans voted in a closed-door meeting to restart the nomination process after Mr. Jordan, his support ebbing, failed on a third floor vote to win the speakership. The vote essentially ensured that the office of the speaker would remain empty for a third week. The lawmakers vying for the job include veterans of the House, committee chairmen, a top member of Republican leadership and a sophomore. They will have to navigate the same treacherous dynamics of a bitterly divided conference that the three men before them could not, leaving some Republicans openly questioning whether anyone can win a majority of votes on the House floor.

Persons: Jim Jordan of, Jordan Organizations: Republicans, Republican Locations: Jim Jordan of Ohio

☆ Fed has 'some time' to see data before deciding next rate move, says Logan
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

Logan acknowledged progress in lowering inflation while still being unsure that price pressures are ebbing to the Fed's 2% target. She said a still-strong job market may need to weaken further to help the Fed achieve its inflation goals. "My focus is on price stability and what further tightening may be needed to achieve our mandate," Logan said. If tighter financial conditions are "persistent that could mitigate some of the need for further increases," Logan said. In her remarks Logan also took stock of the outlook for the Fed's balance sheet contraction policy.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Jerome Powell, Michael S, Sandra Maler, Leslie Adler Organizations: Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank, New York University, New, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S, New York

☆ Republicans Vote Out Jordan as Speaker Nominee, Continuing Chaos in House
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Luke Broadwater | More About Luke Broadwater | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Republicans cast aside their latest nominee for House speaker on Friday, rejecting Representative Jim Jordan of Ohio during a secret ballot vote, leaving them once again to search for a new leader amid raging personal and political recriminations. The rejection came hours after Mr. Jordan, his support ebbing, failed on a third floor vote to win the speakership. After his colleagues then voted to withdraw Mr. Jordan’s nomination, about a dozen House Republicans, few of them household names, quickly began making calls and exploring bids for speaker. “We need to come together and figure out who our speaker is going to be,” Mr. Jordan said, acknowledging his defeat. He said he would turn his focus back to the investigations he is leading into the Biden administration as chairman of the Judiciary Committee.

Persons: Jim Jordan of, Jordan, Jordan’s, Mr, Biden Organizations: Republicans Locations: Jim Jordan of Ohio

☆ Fed's Logan: Fed has "some time" to see data before deciding next rate move
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan walks to the opening dinner of the Kansas City Fed's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, U.S., August 24, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Oct 19 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said on Thursday recent data and market shifts give the central bank space to deliberate on its next monetary policy move. "We have some time" before having to make the call whether to raise rates again or hold them steady, Logan said at a gathering of the Money Marketeers of New York University. Logan noted that a desirable tightening in financial conditions gives officials some space to watch incoming data, as she noted progress in lowering inflation while still being unsure price pressures are ebbing to the 2% target. Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Sandra MalerOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Lorie Logan, Ann Saphir, Logan, Michael S, Sandra Maler Organizations: Reserve Bank, Dallas, Kansas City, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank, New York University, Thomson Locations: Kansas, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, U.S

☆ Morning Bid: Banks, Biden visit buoy markets
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 15, 2023. Biden leaves later on Tuesday for a high stakes visit to Israel and Jordan and Washington said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to let humanitarian aid reach besieged Gazans. That reversed a pre-weekend 'safety bid' that emerged amid fears an Israeli ground invasion into Gaza could draw other regional countries and groups into the war. Before then, bond markets will have to negotiate tomorrow's 20-year Treasury auction. The relatively new 20-year tenor has often proved unpopular and will be watched closely after a poor reception for the latest 30-year bond last week.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, Joe Biden's, Biden, Washington, Benjamin Netanyahu, Wells, Goldman Sachs, Charles Schwab, Jerome Powell's, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Lockheed Martin, Johnson, JB Hunt, Michelle Bowman, John Williams, Neel Kashkari, Tom Barkin, Luis de Guindos, Joe Biden, Olaf Scholz Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasury, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Federal Reserve, HK, Bank of England, Lockheed, United Airlines, Michelle Bowman , New York Fed, Minneapolis Fed, Richmond Fed, European Central Bank, European Union, Luxembourg Retail, Reuters Graphics Reuters, EIA, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Jordan, Israeli, Gazans, Asia, Europe, Wells Fargo, China, Russian, Beijing, Ukraine, United, Canada, Michelle Bowman , New, Frankfurt, Luxembourg, Venezuela

☆ Fed's Harker says Fed should not be considering more rate increases
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker stands behind the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole, where the Kansas City Fed holds its annual economic symposium, in Wyoming, U.S. August 24, 2023. REUTERS/Ann Saphir/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsNEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said on Monday the central bank should not create new pressures in the economy by increasing the cost of borrowing. "We should not at this point be thinking about any increases" in the Fed's rate target, Harker told a bankers' group after a speech in which he had again reiterated his belief the Fed is done raising rates in an environment where inflation pressures are ebbing. Reporting by Michael S. Derby Editing by Chris ReeseOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Patrick Harker, Ann Saphir, Harker, Michael S, Chris Reese Organizations: Philadelphia Federal, Kansas City Fed, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Thomson Locations: Jackson, Wyoming, U.S

Israel responded with a declaration of war and a strong military response in the Gaza Strip, home to 2 million Palestinians. President Joe Biden ordered a U.S. naval carrier strike group to the region after pledging full support to Israel. Biden on Sunday spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and pledged the full support of the U.S., including military assistance. “Geopolitical risks are back in focus amid the attack in Israel on Saturday,” said James Demmert, chief investment officer at Main Street Research. Key data on U.S. inflation is due to be released Wednesday with the producer price index and then Thursday with the consumer price index.

Persons: Joe Biden, Yoav Gallant, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, ”, James Demmert, Tony Welch, “ It’s, Dan Swan, Swan, ” Swan, “, Kevin McCarthy Organizations: Israeli, Main, Research, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, McKinsey, “ Airlines, Rep Locations: Israel, Gaza, U.S, New York, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Washington

☆ The stock market's report card one year since the bottom of the 2022 bear market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-07 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

A report card for the stock market as it approaches one year since the October 2022 bottom of the mini-bear market would probably read, "Good effort, shows perseverance, needs improvement." The equal-weight S & P 500 is up less than 12% from its low. The median stock in the index is up between 3% and 4% over the past 12 months. All four times since 1979, the S & P 500 and Russell 2000 were both higher in the fourth quarter. The S & P 500 is now at 17.7-times 12-month forward profit forecasts, according to FactSet, down from almost 20 in late July.

Persons: Doug Ramsey, Russell, Stephen Suttmeier, Jurrien Timmer, Stocks Organizations: Leuthold, Nasdaq, Bank of America, Fidelity Investments, Fed, Federal Reserve, Deutsche, Treasury

☆ Putin's plan to wear down support for Ukraine in a war of attrition seems to be working, though it's not risk-free
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Putin is seeking to wear down Western support for Ukraine with a war of attrition. AdvertisementAdvertisementAt the Valdai Club conference Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin gloated over the potential impact of Western support for Ukraine ebbing. Meanwhile, Ukraine's economy is struggling under the weight of the conflict and it is heavily dependent on Western aid. Wagner fighters deployed in Rostov-on-Don REUTERS/StringerPutin faces threats of his ownBut there are also risks for Putin in an attrition strategy. AdvertisementAdvertisementA notable series of successes could lead to a new wave of public support for Ukraine, and damage Putin's internal credibility.

Persons: Putin, —, Vladimir Putin gloated, Kevin McCarthy, Joe Biden's, George Beebe, Beebe, Wagner, Don, Stringer Putin, –, Lawrence Freedman, Yevgeny Prigozhin Organizations: Ukraine, Putin, Service, Valdai, Republicans, Don REUTERS, King's College London, New Statesman Locations: Ukraine, Slovakia, Germany, Russia, Kyiv, Europe, Rostov, Russian, —, Moscow, Lviv

☆ An elite Russian unit's morale is at 'critical levels' after being sent to stop Ukraine's counteroffensive, analysts say
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Tom Porter | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A Russian elite unit's motivation dropped to "critical levels," a US think tank said. Russian forces are seeking to prevent Ukraine breaking through on a key part of the front line. AdvertisementAdvertisementA Russian elite unit's motivation to fight dropped to "critical levels" amid high casualties in Ukraine, analysts said. Russia's VDV units have been deployed in the region to make counterattacks to slow Ukraine's counteroffensive, suffering high casualties. AdvertisementAdvertisementReports have emerged in recent weeks of heavy casualties in Russian units launching counterattacks to slow Ukraine's counteroffensive in the east and south of the country.

Persons: —, Alexander Khodakovsky, Khodakovsky, Andrei Kondrashkin, Kondrashkin, Mikhail Teplinsky, Russia's, they've Organizations: Institute, Service Locations: Ukraine, Bakhmut

☆ Fed's Mester says one more U.S. rate hike may be needed
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-02 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

FILE PHOTO: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester takes part in a panel convened to speak about the health of the U.S. economy in New York November 18, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson/File PhotoNEW YORK (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said Monday that the U.S. central bank most likely isn’t done raising interest rates amid ongoing inflation pressures. The Fed has raised rates aggressively over the last year and a half to help cool inflation. Ebbing price pressures allowed officials to keep the federal funds target rate range at between 5.25% and 5.5% in September. Mester said the economy has proved to be stronger than expected at the start of the summer.

Persons: Loretta Mester, Lucas Jackson, ” Mester, Mester’s, Michael Barr, Michelle Bowman, “, ”, Mester Organizations: Cleveland Fed, REUTERS, Federal Reserve Bank, Cleveland Locations: U.S, New York, Cleveland

☆ Inside Point72's boot camp for developing all-star portfolio managers, where Steve Cohen is known to grill up-and-comers who think they're ready for the big time
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-25 | by ( Michelle Abrego | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +10 min

Point72 is a pioneer in developing investor talent; the multi-manager has been running LaunchPoint, previously known as Nines, since 2012. More than 70 long/short managers have launched through LaunchPoint since it started in 2012, and 75% of those are still at Point72. They make up 50% of the firm's 100 long/short managers. For Point72, LaunchPoint was created with the idea that it can take two to three years to figure out how to be a PM. Point72"We saw that preparation really influenced the long-term success of new PMs," Weiner said.

Persons: Steve Cohen, Cohen, Harry Schwefel, Point72, Schwefel, Steve, haven't, It's, John Weiner, it's, John Pierson, Weiner, LaunchPoint, they've, Nick Shivers, Ariel Herman, Jon Weiner, Point72 LaunchPoint, Griffin Newman, Newman, Point72 Newman, Ryan Wilder, " Weiner Organizations: SAC Capital, Point72 Academy, P2 Investments, New York Mets, Point72, Brigade Capital Management, SAC Advisors, Bloomberg Locations: LaunchPoint, Point72

☆ Trump is not invincible in Republican race – but still lacks a single strong challenger
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Stephen Collinson | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +9 min

The state of the Republican race is this: Trump is not yet unbeatable but the conditions in which he could be beaten are still far from materializing. The New Hampshire poll may boost an impression that Haley is on the rise and with DeSantis ebbing, she could emerge as the strongest anti-Trump challenger. Trump appears to be eying a general election audience that punished Republicans in the midterms over the issue. But DeSantis has jumped at the chance to try to harm Trump with evangelical voters who are very important in the Iowa caucuses. In Iowa, New Hampshire and elsewhere, the race for the Republican nomination is beginning to accelerate.

Persons: Donald Trump’s, “, Joe Biden’s, Trump, Vivek Ramaswamy, Nikki Haley, Chris Christie, Ron DeSantis, Haley, Ramaswamy, Christie, CNN’s John King, Biden, Ronald Reagan, DeSantis ebbing, Fredreka Schouten, Steve Contorno, he’s, DeSantis, ” Trump, –, ” DeSantis Organizations: CNN, Republican, Granite State, Trump, South Carolina Gov, Florida Gov, Biden, Ronald Reagan Presidential, The New, GOP, Republicans, “, NBC, Court, ABC News Locations: New Hampshire, Iowa, materializing, Granite, New Jersey, Granite State, California, Wisconsin, The, The New Hampshire, Lago, South Carolina , Florida, Florida, Iowa , New Hampshire

Investors at six large asset managers - Pictet, BNP Paribas Asset Management, Janus Henderson, J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Invesco and RBC - told Reuters they have neither reduced nor added to their China weighting following recent measures to support the economy. "While the overall picture is grim, bearishness around Chinese equities may have reached a local peak and we therefore are refraining from cutting our exposure," said Dong Chen, head of Asia macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management. SEEKING ALTERNATIVESOthers have meanwhile sought out opportunities in markets outside of China, but that trend is showing signs of ebbing. "With attitudes towards China currently so weak, equities valuations could be quite sensitive to signs that corporate fundamentals are starting to improve." ($1 = 7.2910 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Summer Zhen in Hong Kong and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Tom Westbrook and Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Janus Henderson, J.P, Dong Chen, Chi Lo, haven't, Alex Redman, teetering, Jasmine Duan, Patrick Garvin, Summer Zhen, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook Organizations: BNP, Asset Management, Morgan Asset Management, Invesco, RBC, Reuters, Pictet Wealth Management, HK, RBC Investment Services, Thomson Locations: China, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE, Asia, Shanghai, Pacific, India, Indonesia, Beijing, Hong Kong, Singapore

☆ Zelenskyy: Russia is weaponizing food, energy and abducted children in its war against Ukraine
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-19 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy addresses the 78th Session of the U.N. General Assembly in New York City, U.S., September 19, 2023. Mike Segar | ReutersUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Tuesday that Russia is "weaponizing" everything from food and energy to abducted children in its war against Ukraine — and he warned world leaders that the same could happen to them. "Those children in Russia are taught to hate Ukraine, and all ties with their families are broken. Russia gets its chance to address the General Assembly on Saturday, when Foreign Minister Minister Sergey Lavrov is expected on the rostrum. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, speaks at the General Debate of the UN General Assembly.

Persons: Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Mike Segar, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine —, Zelenskyy, Vladimir Putin, Sergey Lavrov, U.N, Dmitry Polyansky, Michael Kappeler, Joe Biden, haven't, Anatolii Stepanov Organizations: General Assembly, Reuters, Ukraine, Foreign, UN, Assembly, Getty, Moscow, U.S, AFP Locations: New York City, U.S, Russia, Ukraine, Russia's, Moscow, Ukraine's, China, India, Caribbean, Africa, Kramatorsk, Donetsk region

An electronic board shows Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes, at the Lujiazui financial district in Shanghai, China October 25, 2022. "While the overall picture is grim, bearishness around Chinese equities may have reached a local peak and we therefore are refraining from cutting our exposure," said Dong Chen, head of Asia macroeconomic research at Pictet Wealth Management. SEEKING ALTERNATIVESOthers have meanwhile sought out opportunities in markets outside of China, but that trend is showing signs of ebbing. "With attitudes towards China currently so weak, equities valuations could be quite sensitive to signs that corporate fundamentals are starting to improve." ($1 = 7.2910 Chinese yuan renminbi)Reporting by Summer Zhen in Hong Kong and Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Tom Westbrook and Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Aly, Janus Henderson, J.P, Dong Chen, Chi Lo, haven't, Alex Redman, teetering, Jasmine Duan, Patrick Garvin, Summer Zhen, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook Organizations: REUTERS, BNP, Asset Management, Morgan Asset Management, Invesco, RBC, Reuters, Pictet Wealth Management, HK, RBC Investment Services, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, India, Indonesia, Beijing, Hong Kong, Singapore

Student loan repayments restart in October after a three-year suspension during the COVID-19 pandemic. In isolation, none would likely shift policymakers' sense of the short-term risks or change their focus on quelling still-elevated inflation. By Goldman's estimate the economy would still be growing at a 1.3% annual rate at that point. But the amounts they see sliced from GDP are more than the 1% growth rate Fed officials expected the economy to muster as of June, and beyond many private forecasts as well. Some economists say the resumption of student loan repayments for tens of millions of borrowers may already be reshaping behavior.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Vincent Reinhart, Reinhart, Michael Pearce, Ian Shepherdson, Kieran Clancy, They've, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: . Federal Reserve, United Auto Workers, Federal, Republicans, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Mellon, Reuters, Oxford Economics, Congressional, U.S . Department, Education, Thomson

☆ US retailer holiday hiring to drop to levels last seen in 2008
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Siddharth Cavale | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A "Now Hiring" sign hangs on the door to the Urban Outfitters store at Quincy Market in Boston, Massachusetts September 5, 2014. That is just slightly above the 324,900 workers they added during the last quarter of the financial recession of 2008. "Seasonal employers have a few issues to grapple with in the coming months. Another is one that has been fairly constant since the pandemic: can they attract workers?," Challenger said. Signs are already emerging that the labor market is starting to cool and employers are hiring at a slower clip.

Persons: Brian Snyder, Andrew Challenger, Siddharth Cavale, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Urban Outfitters, Quincy Market, REUTERS, Labor, Challenger, Reuters . Retailers, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Thomson Locations: Boston , Massachusetts, New York

☆ Fed losses breach $100 billion as interest costs rise
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( Michael S. Derby | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, Sept 15 (Reuters) - Federal Reserve losses breached the $100 billion mark, central bank data released on Thursday showed, and they're likely to go a lot higher before the red ink stops. While there's considerable uncertainty around how it will all play out, some observers believe Fed losses, which began a year ago, could eventually as much as double before abating. William English, a former top central bank staffer now at Yale University, said he sees a "peak" loss of around $200 billion by 2025. Meanwhile, Derek Tang of forecasting firm LH Meyer said the loss is likely to be between $150 billion and $200 billion by next year. In 2022, the Fed handed back $76 billion, after returning $109 billion in 2021.

Persons: William English, Derek Tang, Meyer, James Bullard, Louis Fed, that's, What's, John Williams, Michael S, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal, Yale University, Fed, Treasury, . Bank, Securities, New York Fed, Thomson Locations: U.S

☆ Opinion | Why Is Joe Biden So Unpopular?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-09 | by ( Ross Douthat | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +2 min

The woke wars and Covid battles that disadvantaged Democrats are no longer central, and the post-Roe culture wars seem like friendlier terrain. Biden’s foreign policy team has defended Ukraine without (so far) a dangerous escalation with the Russians, and Biden has even delivered legislative bipartisanship, co-opting Trumpian promises about industrial policy along the way. The hope has to be that inflation continues to drift down, real wages rise consistently and in November 2024, Biden gets the economic credit he isn’t getting now. Across multiple polls, Biden seems to be losing support from minority voters, continuing a Trump-era trend. — much as culturally conservative white Democrats drifted slowly into the Republican coalition between the 1960s and the 2000s.

Persons: Biden, Trumpian, isn’t, wokeness Organizations: Democratic, American, Democrats, African, Republican Locations: Ukraine

☆ Take Five: Doves versus hawks
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Key UK jobs data and a G20 summit, marked by the absence of China's Xi Jinping, are also in focus. The doves urge caution; the most hawkish hawks say a pause is not a done deal, but haven't explicitly called for a hike either. Wednesday's August U.S. inflation data, followed by producer price and retail sales numbers a day later, are the next test. Next up are consumer and factory price data this weekend, with industrial output and retail sales out on the 15th. The unemployment rate has been edging above last year's 48-year low, indicating some softening in the jobs market, while basic earnings are rising at record pace.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, China's Xi, Ira Iosebashvili, Kevin Buckland, Li Gu, Amanda Cooper, Ahmad Ghaddar, haven't, Goldman Sachs, Xi Jinping, He's, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, BoE, RUSH Brent, Dhara, Philippa Fletcher Organizations: Financial, of, REUTERS, European Central Bank, United States, Key, Yoruk Bahceli, ECB, Reuters, Huawei, SMIC, West, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: of Manhattan , New York City, U.S, Yoruk, Amsterdam, New York, Tokyo, Shanghai, London, China, United States, Washington, Beijing, India, Britain, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iran, Venezuela, Libya

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