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Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. A slew of Fed officials have signalled in recent days that the U.S. central bank may not need to tighten monetary policy much further than initially thought. Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic said on Tuesday the central bank did not need to raise borrowing costs any further, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari followed with similar remarks later in the day. U.S. Treasury yields have similarly tracked lower following the dovish Fed comments, with the two-year yield , which typically reflects near-term rate expectations, hitting a one-month low of 4.9260% on Tuesday. The offshore yuan , which touched a roughly one-month high of 7.2700 per dollar on Tuesday, last bought 7.2839.
Persons: Rick Wilking, Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Sterling, Thierry Wizman, Carol Kong, CBA's, Rae Wee, Jamie Freed Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Treasury, dovish, Atlanta Fed Bank, Minneapolis Fed, U.S, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, New Zealand, Bloomberg, Thomson Locations: Westminster , Colorado, Rights SINGAPORE, U.S, Asia, CHINA, China
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailDovish Fed remarks 'the catalyst' for recent market rally, says Defiance ETFs CEO Sylvia JablonskiSylvia Jablonski, Defiance ETFs co-founder and CEO, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest market trends, the impact of the Fed's inflation fight and geopolitical tensions, interest rate path outlook, and more.
Persons: Sylvia Jablonski Sylvia Jablonski
Bostic was partly responding to the outburst of violence in Israel and Gaza, said Joseph Trevisani, senior analyst at FXStreet in New York. "You can pretty much count on the Fed taking that into its world view and that's only going to be lower rates." U.S. Treasuries rallied, pushing two-year yields to their lowest in a month, as safe-haven demand was driven by the ongoing Mideast bloodshed and dovish Fed comments. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury , which moves inversely to the price, was down 12.5 basis points at 4.6571%. The Swiss franc , a traditional safe-haven currency, was at 0.9045 to the dollar, which weakened about 0.21%.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Joseph Trevisani, Treasuries, Shaun Osborne, Israel's shekel, They're, Chris Turner, Herbert Lash, Harry Robertson, Tom Westbrook, Simon Cameron, Moore, Susan Fenton, Sharon Singleton, Jonathan Oatis, Mark Heinrich, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Fed, American Bankers Association, U.S, Scotiabank, Traders, Bloomberg, Analysts, Columbus, Kyodo, Bank of Japan, . Treasury, ING, Swiss, Thomson Locations: China, U.S, Israel, Gaza, New York, Toronto, Palestinian, London, Singapore
Following the comments from top Fed officials on Monday, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the U.S. central bank does not need to raise interest rates any further, and that he sees no recession ahead. "Everybody has one eye on the Middle East conflict and one eye on what's happening with bond yields. The decline in bond yields is the key driver today," said John Praveen, managing director & co-chief investment officer at Paleo Leon. "If tensions escalate bond yields might decline further because they're a safe haven but equities would sell off in that instance because of increased uncertainty and risk aversion," he said. But the flight to safety has made Treasury yields fall enough to push up equities," Tuz said.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, dovish, Raphael Bostic, John Praveen, Praveen, Peter Tuz, Tuz, Neel Kashkari, Christopher Waller, Sinéad Carew, Shashwat Chauhan, Ankika Biswas, Terence Gabriel, Arun Koyyur, Shounak Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S . Federal Reserve, Atlanta Fed, Treasury, Chase Investment, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank, Traders, PepsiCo, Truist, Rivian, UBS, EV, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, Paleo Leon, Charlottesville , Virginia, Israel, Minneapolis
Moves were relatively muted as traders waited for more Fed officials to speak later in the day, as well as minutes from the last Fed meeting to be released on Wednesday and U.S. inflation data on Thursday. The euro was last up 0.12% against the dollar at $1.0581. The dollar index , which tracks the greenback against six peers, was last up less than 0.1% at 106.05. The Swiss franc , a traditional safe-haven currency, was last flat, with the dollar trading at 0.9068 francs. Fed officials Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Mary Daly are due to speak later on Tuesday.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Simon Harvey, Israel's shekel, They're, Chris Turner, Israel, Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, Harry Robertson, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Simon Cameron, Moore, Susan Fenton, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, Hamas, Bloomberg, Columbus, Treasury, Kyodo, Bank of Japan, . Treasury, ING, Swiss, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, China, Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, London, Singapore
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. Top ranking Fed officials indicated rising yields on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds could steer the central bank from further increases in its short-term policy rate. Megacap stocks Microsoft (MSFT.O), Alphabet (GOOGL.O), Nvidia (NVDA.O) and Amazon.com (AMZN.O) added between 0.2% and 0.4% in premarket trading. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Monday, with energy (.SPNY) leading gains as supply worries ignited by Middle East tensions sparked a rally in crude oil prices. Rivian Automotive (RIVN.O) added 4.1% on a report that UBS upgraded the EV maker's stock to "buy" from "neutral".
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Raffi Boyadjian, Atlanta's Raphael Bostic, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, Christopher Waller, Israel, John Riccitiello, J.P.Morgan, Shashwat Chauhan, Ankika Biswas, Arun Koyyur, Shounak Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, PepsiCo, Dow, Nasdaq, Treasury, Federal, Columbus, Peoples, Microsoft, Nvidia, XM, Traders, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Dow e, Rivian, UBS, EV, Alibaba Group, PDD Holdings, Baidu, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Gaza, Minneapolis, Wells Fargo, Beijing, Bengaluru
Asia shares pick up after Fed rate comments; oil dips
  + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Kane Wu | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
U.S. stocks ended higher on Monday, with energy shares rising along with oil prices. The S&P 500 energy index (.SPNY) ended up 3.5%. Oil prices eased after climbing more than 4% on Monday. "The unrest and volatility in the near-term suggest that upside risks to oil prices will persist," said OCBC economists in a note. This will lead to some volatility in oil prices during intense periods of conflict but should see prices normalize, following the knee-jerk reaction."
Persons: Androniki, Kerry Craig, Australia's, Brent, Kane Wu, Stella Qiu, Edmund Klamanhn, Kim Coghill Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, dovish, Top Fed, Hamas, Asset Management, Garden Holdings, HK, National Bank of Australia, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, HONG KONG, East, Europe, U.S, Asia Pacific, China, Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, Hong Kong, Sydney
REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsSINGAPORE, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The dollar remained steady against major peers on Tuesday, after a pause in its rally following a slight dovish shift in Federal Reserve officials' tone. "If long-term interest rates remain elevated because of higher term premiums, there may be less need to raise the Fed funds rate," said Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan -- a notable shift from previously hawkish rhetoric. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank would need to "proceed carefully" given the recent rise in yields. "There are another 13 Fed speakers scheduled this week which could see this theme develop further," said analysts at Westpac. "The idea that the increases in bond yields have done part of the tightening job appears to be gaining traction among some Fed officials," said OCBC rates strategist Frances Cheung.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Lorie Logan, Philip Jefferson, Frances Cheung, Ken Cheung, Tom Westbrook, Sam Holmes, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal, New, East, Swiss, Palestinian, Dallas, Fed, Westpac, Columbus, People's Bank of, Thomson Locations: Rights SINGAPORE, Asia, New Zealand, Israeli, Israel, Tokyo, People's Bank of China
MSCI's gauge of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was up 1.2% at 0135 GMT. Japan's benchmark Nikkei average (.N225) rose 2.4% while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 (.AXJO) rose for a fourth straight session to gain 1.2%. Top Fed officials indicated on Monday that rising Treasury yields could steer the Fed from further rate increases, helping to spur a rise in bond prices after those markets had been closed the previous day in the U.S. and Tokyo. The markets' initial reaction to the major geopolitical developments in the Middle East was a bout of risk aversion, analysts from National Bank of Australia said in a note. Ten-year Treasury yields , which have been surging, fell more than 13 basis points to 4.6% at the open in Tokyo as bond prices rallied after Monday's holiday.
Persons: Androniki, Australia's, Kerry Craig, Brent, Kane Wu, Stella Qiu, Edmund Klamanhn Organizations: Nikkei, REUTERS, dovish, Top Fed, Tokyo ., Hamas, Asset Management, Garden Holdings, HK, National Bank of Australia, U.S, West Texas, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, HONG KONG, Asia Pacific, U.S, Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, Hong Kong, Sydney
Morning Bid: Markets regain footing with focus back on Fed
  + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
The U.S. Federal Reserve building is pictured in Washington, March 18, 2008. Meanwhile, 10-year U.S. Treasuries managed their sharpest rally in more than a month at the Tokyo opening on Tuesday, on a combination of the dovish Fed remarks and demand for safe assets. Markets will have plenty more chances to hear from Fed officials, who will be out in full force at events on Tuesday while minutes of their September monetary policy meeting will be published on Wednesday. Elsewhere, the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Morocco get into full swing, with a range of leading global policymakers set to speak. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde makes her appearance at the meetings on Tuesday, speaking after economic data the previous day added fuel to fears of a potential recession in Germany, the euro zone's largest economy.
Persons: Jason Reed, Brigid Riley, Treasuries, Christine Lagarde, Fed's Raphael Bostic, Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari, Mary Daly, Edmund Klamann Organizations: U.S . Federal, REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Treasury, IMF, World Bank, European Central Bank, PepsiCo, Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S, Tokyo, Morocco, Germany, Asia, China, Sweden
Dollar slips as dovish Fed speak dials down rate expectations
  + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
The dollar softened on Tuesday along with U.S. interest rate expectations and a fall in Treasury yields as investors detected a slight dovish shift in Federal Reserve officials' tone. The yen held small gains as violence in the Middle East supported buying of safe-haven assets, and last traded firmly at 148.34 per dollar. However comments from two Fed officials turned around the mood and U.S. rate forecasts overnight after noting the recent selloff in bonds might negate the need for further hikes. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the central bank would need to "proceed carefully" given the recent rise in yields. "A handful of other officials, including Fed Governor Christopher Waller, are scheduled to speak today.
Persons: , Lorie Logan —, Philip Jefferson, Christopher Waller, Carol Kong, Sterling Organizations: Treasury, Federal, East, Swiss, Dallas, Columbus, New Zealand Locations: Asia, Tokyo
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., September 28, 2023. But late in the afternoon, a senior Hamas official said the group is open to discussions over a possible truce with Israel. A recent surge in U.S. Treasury yields had pressured equities. Shares of the airlines, also hurt by rising oil prices, putting pressure on the S&P 500 Passenger Airlines index (.SPLRCALI). Exchange-traded funds exposed to Israel were selling off, with iShares MSCI Israel ETF falling along with the ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF .
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Joe Biden, John Augustine, Augustine, Big advancers, iShares, Sinéad Carew, Shashwat Chauhan, Ankika Biswas, Arun Koyyur, Shounak Dasgupta, Richard Chang Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Hamas, U.S, Federal, Huntington National Bank, Columbus, Peoples, Treasury, Fund, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, Airlines, Defense, Aerospace, Northrop Grumman, L3Harris Technologies, Exchange, ARK Israel Innovative Technology ETF, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Palestinian, Gaza, Columbus , Ohio, Tel Aviv, New York, Bengaluru
So, Fed officials are divided, but it doesn’t really matter. Fed officials are still people, and as the saying goes, opinions are like bellybuttons in that everyone’s got one. Fed officials in that committee with voting power have the option to dissent, but it’s only happened twice this cycle. This year’s voters, which are Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, will be rotated out next year. Up NextMonday: Fed officials Lorie Logan, Michael Barr and Phillip Jefferson deliver remarks.
Persons: Mary Daly, Michelle Bowman, , Biden, That’s, Michael Feroli, everyone’s, “ It’s, ” Feroli, Esther George, Ed Al, Hussainy, JPMorgan’s Feroli, It’s, Jerome Powell, John Williams, Lorie Logan, Austan Goolsbee, Patrick Harker, Neel Kashkari, Logan, Kashkari, Raphael Bostic, San Francisco Fed’s Daly, – CNN’s Elisabeth Buchwald, Michael Barr, Phillip Jefferson, Christopher Waller Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, CNN, Federal, San Francisco Fed, JPMorgan, Fed, Market Committee, Kansas City, Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Governors, New York Fed, Dallas Fed, Chicago Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Minneapolis Fed, San Francisco, Treasury, PepsiCo, The National Federation of Independent Business, US Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Delta, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, The University of Michigan Locations: San, Kansas, Columbia, Cleveland, Richmond, Atlanta, San Francisco, Walgreens
Investors are awaiting Microsoft (MSFT.O), Google-owner Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O) earnings this week, which will show whether their stocks justify sky-high valuations. The Nasdaq (.NDX) lagged other indexes as investors looked to non-tech stocks for bargains, lifting sectors from energy to banks. Helping the Dow (.DJI) notch its longest winning streak since February 2017, Chevron (CVX.N) gained almost 2% as the oil giant posted upbeat preliminary quarterly earnings over the weekend. Nine of the 11 major S&P 500 sectors rose, led by a gain in energy stocks (.SPNY). The S&P 500 posted 22 new 52-week highs and one new low; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 58 new highs and 97 new lows.
Persons: Barbie, Randy Frederick, You've, Carol Schleif, Toymaker Mattel, AMC's, decliners, Carolina Mandl, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Shounak Dasgupta, Anil D'Silva, Richard Chang Organizations: Dow, Nasdaq, Mattel, Chevron, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Microsoft, Google, Investors, BMO Family Office, Reuters, AMC Entertainment, NYSE, Thomson Locations: New York, Bengaluru
Investors are awaiting Microsoft (MSFT.O), Google-owner Alphabet (GOOGL.O) and Meta Platforms (META.O) earnings this week, which will show whether their stocks justify sky-high valuations. The Nasdaq (.NDX) lost steam during the session as investors looked to non-tech stocks for bargains, lifting sectors from energy to banks. Barclays' head of U.S. equity strategy Venu Krishna said in a note to clients that investors are differentiating between tech companies. A few Big Tech names are driving all of the earnings upside, while the outlook for the "Rest of the Tech" is deteriorating, he said. Helping the Dow (.DJI) notch its longest winning streak since February 2017, Chevron (CVX.N) gained as the oil giant posted upbeat preliminary quarterly earnings over the weekend.
Persons: Barbie, Randy Frederick, Venu Krishna, You've, Carol Schleif, Toymaker Mattel, AMC's, Carolina Mandl, Bansari Mayur Kamdar, Johann M, Shounak Dasgupta, Anil D'Silva, Richard Chang Organizations: Chevron, Dow, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Microsoft, Google, Nasdaq, Barclays, Big Tech, Tech, Investors, BMO Family Office, Reuters, AMC Entertainment, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, Bengaluru
ORLANDO, Florida, July 23 (Reuters) - Hedge funds have ramped up their bearish dollar bets by more than $7 billion in a week, and are now sitting on their biggest net short dollar position in over two years. Foreign exchange speculators' long sterling position are now the biggest on record, although decent interest in shorting the pound means the overall net long position remains at a 16-year high, not an all-time peak. It is the most substantial bet on the dollar falling since March 2021, and marks the 37th week in a row funds have been net short. The value of funds' short dollar position is big, but not extreme. Earlier this month, their net short position was the largest in five and a half years.
Persons: Jamie McGeever, Shri Navaratnam Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and Bank of Japan, Futures, ECB, Thomson, Reuters Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Foreign, That's
In this videoShare Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailA dovish Fed pivot next week could see investors move out of FAANG stocks, says Fundstrat's Tom LeeTom Lee, Fundstrat co-founder, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the day's market action as the Dow extends its win streak for a tenth day.
Persons: Tom Lee Tom Lee, Fundstrat Organizations: Fed, Dow
Gold was poised for its best week in three months as the dollar floundered, while crude oil rose to the highest in nearly three months. U.S. E-mini equity futures also pointed to a 0.16% lower restart for the S&P 500 (.SPX), after the index rallied 0.85% overnight. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index - which measures the currency against six major peers - edged about 0.1% lower to touch 99.637 for the first time since April of last year. "The dollar index can probably trade down toward 98 over the coming weeks without too many problems," said IG's Sycamore. It has rallied nearly 2% this week.
Persons: Gold, we've, Tony Sycamore, HSI, Korea's, Michele Bullock, Kevin Buckland, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: Federal, Treasury, IG, Japan's Nikkei, U.S, Bank of Japan's, Reserve Bank of Australia, Brent, . West Texas, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Sydney, Asia, Pacific, Japan, Australia
A strong dollar affects prices, tourism and tradeThe ripple effect of a robust dollar permeates various parts of the economic picture, from international trade to tourism. “One of the underappreciated dimensions of a strong dollar is that it weighs on inflation,” she said. While Americans may find trips abroad relatively cheaper during times of dollar strength, tourism to the United States may take a hit. Relative weakness in European and Asian economies has also added investors’ appetite for the dollar, according to Gagnon. “I don’t see anything on the horizon that would weaken the dollar,” Gagnon said.
Persons: … that’s, Lisa Shalett, Shalett, Joseph Gagnon, , That’s, Gagnon, ” Gagnon, Goldman Sachs, Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, Products, Walmart, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Deutsche Bank, eventual Locations: United, United States
Morning Bid: Plotting policy paths for Europe and the US
  + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Jefferson said he favoured "skipping" a rate hike at the upcoming meeting and that term has started to displace "pause" among Fed officials. Some Fed watchers believe this conveys a slightly more hawkish nuance. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsBets for ECB tightening have been knocked back, too, most recently by weaker-than-expected CPI data from Germany and France. Traders currently foresee slightly more than 50 basis points of ECB tightening left before an expected peak in January. That's a strong indication that the bill could get through the Senate before the weekend.
Persons: Kevin Buckland, Philip Jefferson, Jefferson, Christine Lagarde, That's, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Graphics Reuters, Traders, Reuters Graphics, U.S . House, Thomson Locations: Germany, France, Hanover, Britain, United States, Asia, Spain, Italy
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe market's gotten ahead of itself pricing in a dovish Fed, says Verdence Capital's HornemanMegan Horneman, Verdence Capital Advisors CIO, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the short-term market pessimism, how investors should consider the earnings thus far, and more.
Following last month’s banking crisis, investors have become more convinced the Federal Reserve will cut rates in the second half to ward off an economic downturn. That view could gain support if next week’s inflation reading shows a strong rise in consumer prices even after aggressive Fed rate hikes over the past year. The firm is recommending clients slightly underweight equities, expecting interest rate hikes to hit consumer spending and corporate profits. Bets on a more dovish Fed have boosted tech and growth stocks, whose future profits are discounted less when interest rates fall. “If the Fed was trying to protect investors, one way would be to cut rates," Hackett said.
The Asia-wide index had surged more than 5% since mid-March to close at a 1 1/2-month high on Tuesday. E-mini futures for the broader S&P 500 indicated a 0.24% decline at the reopen, extending Wednesday's 0.25% slide. As signs have built this week for a sharp U.S. slowdown, traders have been pricing for a more dovish Fed. That helped the yen, which is highly sensitive to U.S. yields, gain against fellow safe haven the greenback. The dollar index rose 0.12% to 101.99, continuing its bounce from a two-month low.
Wall Street rallies on hopes of Fed policy pause
  + stars: | 2023-03-23 | by ( Stephen Culp | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
"Today the market is bouncing back on what was a dovish Fed hike yesterday," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. "Powell did a good job sticking to the party line on inflation and continued to jawbone hawkish even though the hike leaned dovish." Comments from the Bank of England that inflation will probably quickly fade also helped fuel hopes of light at the end of the central bank tightening tunnel. Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, communication services (.SPLRCL) and tech (.SPLRCT) led the percentage gainers. The S&P 500 posted four new 52-week highs and 14 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 45 new highs and 197 new lows.
The Fed's hint of a pause after announcing a quarter-point rate rise on Wednesday, even as it re-stated its commitment to fight inflation, provided relief to markets. "Note the modern-day history book of Fed pauses is very bullish for stocks," Innes said. In Europe, news of the rate hikes in Switzerland and Britain helped push the European-wide STOXX 600 share index (.STOXX) down 0.21%. For bond markets it meant European government bond yields - which reflect borrowing costs - were heading down again. German Bunds were back at 2.25%, having seen 10-year U.S. Treasury yields dip back below 3.5%.
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