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☆ Fears are rising ocean freight rates may surpass $20,000 with no relief for global trade into 2025
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-13 | by ( Lori Ann Larocco | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Goetz Alebrand, head of ocean freight at DHL Global Forwarding Americas, said he is not optimistic freight rates will decline anytime soon. "It is unlikely that the situation will resolve itself soon and [ocean freight] rate levels might not ease up before Chinese New Year," Alebrand said. Air freight prices and demand are going higher According to freight intelligence firm Xeneta, China to North America air freight spot rates increased 43%, to $4.88 per kilogram, year-on-year in May. According to ocean freight data from FreightWaves SONAR, container bookings and freight orders from shippers to the ocean carriers are down 48% month-over-month. Xeneta data tracking ocean freight rates from the Far East to the U.S. East Coast, West Coast and Gulf Coast ports shows the historic run.

Persons: Joe Giddens, Paul Brashier, Brashier, Goetz Alebrand, Alebrand, Alan Murphy, Murphy, Peter Boockvar, Boockvar, We've, Nate Herman, Xeneta, Daniel Ives, Niall van de, van de, Good Hope Organizations: Federal Reserve, CNBC, ITS Logistics, DHL Global, Intelligence, Defense Intelligence, U.S ., Bleakley Financial, American Apparel and Footwear Association, Global, ", Apple, Wedbush Securities, Trade, Good Locations: Asia, Europe, Sea, Red, Africa, Shanghai, Rotterdam, Genoa, U.S . West Coast, East Coast, U.S, China, North America, U.S . East Coast , West Coast, Gulf Coast

☆ Fed in June is a modest disappointment for stocks, but fundamentals remain strong
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-12 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The Federal Open Market Committee statement, in which the Fed announced that it left interest rates unchanged, was a modest disappointment for stock bulls. On rate cuts, the majority supported only one rate cut, not two, and four were in favor of no rate cuts. It's a disappointment because so much of an additional leg up in the market is centered around this "Fed pivot," where the Fed moves from keeping rates high to cutting rates. So investors did not get the two rate cuts they wanted. But when compared with the main drivers of this market, it's only a modest disappointment.

Persons: It's Organizations: Fed, Netscape

☆ Trading CPI: How stocks may react to latest inflation report, according to JPMorgan traders
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-11 | by ( Fred Imbert | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

.SPX YTD mountain SPX year to date Here's what they expect, based on six scenarios: 40% chance: CPI rises 0.3%-0.35%: This is the most likely outcome, according to JPMorgan. Under this scenario, the S & P 500 could fall as much as 0.75% and gain as much as 0.75%. The S & P 500 would pull back between 1% and 1.25% under this scenario. 12.5% chance: CPI rises between 0.2% and 0.25%: The S & P 500 would jump 1.25% to 1.75% as September rate cut expectations surge, JPMorgan traders said. "Given the acceleration higher in inflation, rate cut bets for 2024 would evaporate and we will see the return of views of a rate hike."

Persons: Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve, CPI, JPMorgan Locations: U.S

☆ America's Economic Plan Will Hurt World Economy, Global Stock Markets
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-09 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

The European Central Bank began easing interest rates on Thursday, cutting its benchmark rate by 0.25%. Investors and economists expect the Federal Reserve to follow suit and cut interest rates in September. This combination means there's a good chance that the September cut Wall Street is praying for may never materialize. The US already has somewhat higher interest rates than other countries — the Fed's benchmark rate is 5.25%- 5.50%. And in Asian economies, where interest rates are already significantly lower than in the US, things could get even messier.

Persons: Tamara, Vasiljev, Peter Schaffrik, Nigel Green, Green, we're Organizations: European Central Bank, Investors, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics, JPMorgan, UBS, Bloomberg, of International Finance, Markets, RBC Capital Markets, deVere, Fed, We're, ECB, Bank of, EU, Bank of Canada, Bank of Canada's, Bank of England Locations: stagflation, China, Europe, Japan, South Korea, It's, America, United States, EU, Bank of England, Canada, East Asia

☆ Stock market heads into the week ahead at a record, but with some uneasiness underneath the surface
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-08 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The S & P 500 made a new record high, its 25 th of the year. And on the surface, there is a stolid calm that suggests a system in comfortable equilibrium, the market achieving a kind of homeostasis. Four of the past five days last week, the S & P 500 moved less than 0.2%. The S & P 500 is up almost 2% since its closing peak at the end of the first quarter, perhaps the moment of maximum belief in a seamless soft economic landing. Three stocks together now account for fully 20% of the S & P 500 market value, mocking the notion of diversification and dashing most active investors' hopes of beating the bogey.

Persons: Keith Gill, Michael Mauboussin, Scott Chronert Organizations: Nvidia, GameStop, Apple, Microsoft, Federal Reserve, Investment, Morgan Stanley Investment Management, Fed, Citi, CPI Locations: rebalancing, U.S

☆ Opinion | Should Biden Downplay His Own Success?
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-03 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

The performance of America’s economy over the past two years has been remarkable, especially given the dire predictions of many observers. Remember the economists who forecast a recession in 2023? Remember all those warnings that getting inflation down would require years of high unemployment? Stocks are way up since President Biden took office. Yet there’s still a lingering conventional wisdom that says Biden shouldn’t trumpet his economic record.

Persons: Biden, there’s, Jimmy Carter’s Organizations: Washington

☆ S&P 500 enters June near a record but with growing concerns about the market's narrow leadership
▼ + stars: | 2024-06-01 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +9 min

The S & P 500 is a mere 1.2% from its all-time high, yet only 60% of its member stocks are up for the year and just over 40% last week were above their 50-day moving average. .SPX YTD mountain S & P 500, 1-year We seem to undergo one of these periods of decrying a lack of market breadth every few months in recent years. Bespoke Investment Group last week looked at the small number of past instances when the S & P 500 was so close to a record yet most stocks were beneath a 50-day average. The 100-day correlation between the S & P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has hit its lowest level since the dot-com bust of the early 2000s, according to CNBC's Data & Analytics group. The S & P 500 at the highs hit 21-times forward earnings, and we've spent very little time above that outside the pandemic melt-up and the tech boom/bust a quarter-century ago.

Persons: Warren Pies, Dow, Scott Chronert, we've Organizations: Investment, 3Fourteen, Nvidia, Treasury, Microsoft, Apple, Dow Jones, Dell Technologies, Citi, UBS Locations: Banks

☆ Euro zone inflation rises to 2.6% in May, but bloc still seen heading for interest rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Inflation in the euro zone rose to 2.6% in May, statistics agency Eurostat said Friday, but a higher-than-expected print did not sway market bets of an interest rate cut from the European Central Bank next week. Core inflation, excluding the volatile effects of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, increased to 2.9% from 2.7% in April. The data comes with the ECB widely expected to cut interest rates at its June 6 meeting, the first reduction since 2019. While headline inflation increased in May, fluctuations in the rate have been forecast over the coming months due to base effects from the energy market and the unwinding of government fiscal support schemes across the bloc, . Staff are also due to release their latest round of inflation and growth projections at next week's meeting, providing more clues on the pace and level of potential cuts this year.

Persons: Klaas Knot, Kamil Kovar Organizations: Eurostat, European Central Bank, Reuters, ECB, Staff, Moody's, U.S . Locations: Corfu, Old Town, Greece, London

☆ Why you should buy the dip in stocks before next week's jobs report, Fundstrat says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-31 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

Investors should buy stocks ahead of next week's May jobs report, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. "We see high probability that stocks perform well into next week's May jobs report," Lee said. AdvertisementInvestors should buy the dip in stocks ahead of next week's release of the May jobs report, according to a Friday note from Fundstrat's Tom Lee. "Thus, we see high probability that stocks perform well into next week's May jobs report," Lee said. Such a report would match the April jobs report and likely put some pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates sooner than later.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, — Organizations: Service, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, PCE, Housing

☆ Fed's Williams says inflation is too high but will start coming down soon
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK — New York Federal Reserve President John Williams on Thursday said inflation is still too high but he is confident it will start decelerating later this year. With markets on edge over the direction of monetary policy, Williams offered no clear signs on where he is leaning as far as possible interest rate cuts go. Williams called policy "well-positioned" and "restrictive" and said it is helping the Fed achieve its goals. But higher than expected inflation readings have altered that landscape dramatically, and current pricing is pointing to just one decrease, probably in November. Williams said he expects PCE inflation to drift down to 2.5% this year on its way back to 2% in 2026.

Persons: John Williams, Williams, CNBC's Sara Eisen, Dow Jones Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, York Federal, Economic, of New, Fed, Commerce Department Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, York, of New York

☆ European Central Bank’s Knot says monetary policy to ease ‘gradually,' as markets brace for June rate cut
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Klaas Knot, president of De Nederlandsche Bank NV, on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G-20) finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Gandhinagar, India, on Tuesday, July 18, 2023. Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesLONDON — European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot said it would "soon" be time to ease monetary policy in the region, but cautioned that the process would need to be done slowly to keep inflation in check. "It can soon be appropriate to ease the currently restrictive monetary policy stance and gradually take our foot off the brake ... policy rates will slowly but gradually move into less restrictive levels," Knot, head of the central bank of the Netherlands, said at the Barclays-CEPR International Monetary Policy Forum in London Tuesday. In a Reuters poll of 82 economists this week, all said they expected a June cut. Knot, usually known for his more hawkish stance, said Tuesday there had been "clear disinflation" since the peak above 10% in late 2022, particularly in goods inflation.

Persons: Klaas Knot Organizations: De Nederlandsche Bank, Bloomberg, Getty, Central Bank Governing, Barclays, CEPR, Monetary, ECB, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Reuters Locations: Gandhinagar, India, Netherlands, London

☆ 5 reasons the stock market is headed for a 4% gain in June, according to Fundstrat
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-29 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 is primed to rise 4% in June, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee. AdvertisementThe stock market is poised to rise another 4% in June after jumping 5% in May, according to a Tuesday note from Fundstrat's Tom Lee. Lee said the S&P 500 could jump to 5,500 within the next month, driven by five positive market catalysts. Such a gain would send the S&P 500 to new all-time highs. But Nvidia's blowout earnings results last week could jolt investors to finally put that cash to work and buy stocks, according to Lee.

Persons: Tom Lee, Lee, — Organizations: Service, PCE, CPI, Bank of America

☆ Japanese stocks are rallying this year. But one key group of investors is missing
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-24 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Japanese stocks are enjoying a banner year, with foreign investors plowing into the market. Japanese investors are hesitant Japanese investors have long been skeptical of the local stock market after the asset price bubble burst in the early 1990s. Another reason Japanese investors may not be as keen on their domestic market could be the yen falling sharply. Outlook for Japanese stocks still strong Despite the recent bout of selling from local investors and the market's recent struggles, many global investors remain bullish on Japanese stocks. This is another "slow-moving but important tailwind to Japanese stocks," with more room to run, according to Zachary Hill, Horizon Investments head of portfolio management.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Kishida, Julian McManus, Janus Henderson, Bernstein, Zachary Hill, Raymond Chan, Chan, McManus, he's, Warren Buffett Organizations: Japan Exchange Group, Nikkei, Bank of Japan, U.S ., Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Investment, Association, Prime, Nippon, Savings, U.S, Horizon Investments, Federal Reserve, Asia Pacific, Allianz Global Investors, Mitsui, Itochu, Sumitomo Locations: U.S, Japan, Asia

☆ A majority of Americans polled believe the economy is in a recession — but it isn't
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-22 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A majority of Americans polled by Harris believe the US is already in an economic recession. About half of Americans polled also believe the S&P 500 is down this year and that unemployment is at a 50-year high. In reality, none of those things are true, and it highlights a big disconnect between Americans' perception of the economy and reality. At least, that's what a majority of Americans believe, according to a recent poll conducted by Harris for The Guardian. What also appears to be driving Americans' disconnect between their views on the economy and the actual economy is politics.

Persons: Harris, —, Biden, Job Biden's Organizations: Service, The Guardian

☆ Opinion | Return of the Inflation Truthers
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-21 | by ( Paul Krugman | ) www.nytimes.com time to read: +1 min

Inflation swaps, which allow Wall Street in effect to make bets on future inflation, are implicitly projecting just 2.1 percent inflation over the next year. And it’s really hard to deny that inflation is way down from its peak. Yet many Americans don’t believe that inflation has fallen, and there are a number of commentators with large audiences insisting that there has been no improvement. Instead, they became “inflation truthers,” insisting that the benign numbers were fake. Now the inflation truthers are back.

Persons: don’t, ”

☆ Stock futures are little changed after Nasdaq Composite hits all-time high: Live updates
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-20 | by ( Alex Harring | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Stock futures are near flat Monday night after the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at an all-time high. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost just 27 points, while S&P 500 futures also sat near its flatline. Those moves come after a mixed day on Wall Street. But the blue-chip Dow slipped almost 200 points, or 0.5%. Monday's action follows a notable week on Wall Street amid renewed hopes about the state of inflation and monetary policy.

Persons: Dow, Jamie Dimon, Keith Buchanan, Christopher Waller, Tom Barkin, Raphael Bostic Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Stock, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial, Palo Alto Networks, LSEG, Nvidia, JPMorgan, Globalt Investments, Federal, Richmond Fed, Atlanta Fed, Traders

☆ Nvidia and 2 other portfolio stocks report earnings next week. Here's what we want to see from each
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-18 | by ( Zev Fima | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

All three major averages closed higher for the week, driven by softer retail sales and consumer price data for April. And the data has been mostly good, with 78% reporting a positive earnings surprise and 60% delivering a positive sales surprise. But we will get earnings from three portfolio companies, including one of our two "own, don't trade" stocks. In the week ahead, three portfolio companies will report results, while it will be fairly slow for economic data, except for a couple of housing reports. Earnings : After a week without earnings from any Club stocks, we'll get three this coming week.

Persons: Dow Jones, Dow, we'll, TJX, Blackwell, Li Auto, James Hardie, Ralph Lauren Corporation, Booz Allen, Jim Cramer's, Jim Cramer, Jim, Jensen Huang, Justin Sullivan Organizations: Wall, Federal Reserve, Dow, Nasdaq, CPI, Palo Alto Networks, Palo, TJX Companies, Nvidia, Nexxen, Alto Networks, Video Communications, Trip.com, James Hardie Industries N.V, Nordson Corp, Keysight Technologies, ZIM Integrated Shipping Services, Lowe's Companies, Eagle Materials, Toll, ViaSat, Urban Outfitters, Target Corp, Devices, Dorian LPG, Dycom, Golden Ocean Group, Petco, Wellness Company, Sonoma, WSM, VF Corp, Star Bulk Carriers Corp, LiveRamp Holdings, Chemical & Mining Co, Grupo Supervielle S.A, BJ's Wholesale, Technologies, TD Bank Group, Intuit, Ross Stores, Booz Allen Hamilton Holding, Mesa Laboratories, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, Intelligence, SAP Center Locations: Palo Alto, Williams, Chile, San Jose , California

☆ ECB board member reportedly cautions against back-to-back rate cuts, cites 'risk of easing prematurely'
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | In Ying-Shan-Lee | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel warned against back-to-back rate cuts amid lingering inflation risks, Nikkei reported Friday, as the central bank gears for its June meeting amid expectations of a rate cut. While a rate cut in June could be warranted depending on incoming data and projections, things are less certain beyond that, Schnabel told Nikkei. "After so many years of very high inflation and with inflation risks still being tilted to the upside, a front-loading of the easing process would come with a risk of easing prematurely," the ECB board member added. Geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty amid a slew of elections worldwide this year also pose risks to euro area financial stability, the ECB said in a recent financial stability review. The review, however, highlighted that financial stability conditions have improved.

Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Schnabel, Luis de Guindos Organizations: European Central Bank, Nikkei, ECB Locations: disinflation

☆ Fed isn't going to reach inflation target due to shelter costs, says 3Fourteen's Warren Pies
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed isn't going to reach inflation target due to shelter costs, says 3Fourteen's Warren PiesWarren Pies, 3Fourteen Research, joins 'Closing Bell' to discuss shelter disinflation and takeaways from the CPI report.

Persons: Warren

☆ Powell says inflation has been higher than thought and expects rates to hold steady
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated Tuesday that inflation is falling more slowly than expected and will keep the central bank on hold for an extended period. But these [inflation readings] were higher than I think anybody expected," Powell said. While he expects inflation to come down through the year, he noted that hasn't happened so far. "I do think it's really a question of keeping policy at the current rate for longer than had been thought," he said. "I think it's more likely that we'll be at a place where we hold the policy rate where it is."

Persons: Jerome Powell, Janet Yellen, Powell Organizations: Treasury Department, Federal, Foreign Bankers ' Association in Locations: Washington , DC, Foreign Bankers ' Association in Amsterdam

☆ 4 reasons why the S&P 500 has another 5% upside this year, UBS says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The ongoing S&P 500 rally could extend to 5,500 this year, UBS said. Tech earnings have remained strong, with ex-Mag 7 tech firm profits revised 7% higher since March. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. AdvertisementWith last month's equity jitters already quashed, the ongoing rebound is the start of an extensive summer rally, UBS said. According to a note published Tuesday, the S&P 500 could reach the firm's upside scenario of 5,500 by this year's end.

Persons: Disinflation, —, Marcelli, That's Organizations: UBS, Tech, Service, Global Wealth Management, Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple

☆ JPMorgan's trading desk lays out 6 scenarios for tomorrow's inflation report, and how the stock market will react to each of them
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

The Wednesday release of the April CPI report has the potential to shake up the stock market. A cool inflation report would bode well for interest rate cuts from the Fed and vice versa if it's hotter than expected. JPMorgan laid out six scenarios for April CPI and how the stock market could react to each. The coming inflation report is set to market-shaking because it will help investors determine when the Federal Reserve might move forward with interest rate cuts. At the start of the year, the market was pricing in as many as seven interest rate cuts, but that has dwindled to just two rate cuts before year-end.

Persons: bode, —, Defensives outperforming, JPMorgan's Andrew Tyler, Tyler, Immaculate Disinflation Organizations: Fed, JPMorgan, Service, Federal Reserve, China PPI Locations: China

☆ The stock market is about to see a 10% correction, with further disinflation a 'pipe dream' and Fed rate cuts coming much later, Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The S&P 500 could fall around 500 points in a swift correction, Stifel strategists warned. The investment firm said falling inflation was a "pipe dream," and Fed rate cuts could be delayed. Markets see just one or two rate cuts by the end of the year, per the CME FedWatch tool. "We have been wary of a broad S&P 500 correction in the middle quarters of 2024. Markets have already dialed back their outlook for Fed rate cuts this year, which drove a sell-of in stocks in April.

Persons: — Organizations: Service, Fed, PCE, Traders

☆ Asia markets largely lower as investors assess China inflation data, await Japan GDP print
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Lim Hui Jie | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Federal Reserve regional presidents Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Austan Goolsbee of Chicago said they are taking a patient approach to monetary policy as they weigh surprisingly strong inflation data this year. Let's get a lot more data to see if this inflation is going to continue or if it's stalling," Kashkari said during a joint live interview on CNBC. "We are all committed to getting inflation back" to the Fed's 2% goal. Goolsbee noted the rapid disinflation that occurred in 2023 and said he is hopeful that can resume following the sticky upward trend seen so far this year. Or did we kind of use up all of our good luck and this bump of the beginning of the year is actually a sign of overheating?"

Persons: Neel Kashkari, Kashkari, Goolsbee, Jeff Cox Organizations: Reserve, CNBC Locations: Minneapolis, Chicago

☆ S&P 500 to fall 500 points and getting to 2% inflation soon is 'pipe dream,' Stifel says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-13 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stifel Financial is predicting a rough road ahead for the S & P 500 . The investment bank forecasts the benchmark stock index will tumble about 500 points to 4,750 in the second or third quarter — a correction of roughly 10%. "As a result, the sustained 2% Core PCE inflation the Fed seeks is a pipe dream." Stifel's inflation model shows a jump in core personal consumption expenditures to just over 3% in the second half of this year. The S & P 500 is up about 9.5% year to date.

Persons: Barry Bannister, Bannister Organizations: PCE

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