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New York CNN —New data shows weakening in the US economy – Friday’s jobs report showed that unemployment ticked up to 4.1% in June. Inflation is easing, and so is economic growth – that combination means interest rate cuts could be on their way. Before the Bell spoke with Michael Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede, about investors, the economy and political landscape. We recognize that to have a thesis on the economy is to have a thesis on the consumer. The global market value for adult diapers was pegged at $12.8 billion in 2023, according to market research provider Euromonitor International.
Persons: Joe Biden, Bell, Michael Reynolds, we’ve, there’s, That’s, We’ve, Fumio Kishida, Read, Nathaniel Meyersohn Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Nasdaq, Federal, DC, Traders, Fed, Federal Reserve, United Nations, UN, Euromonitor, Oji Holdings, Flags Locations: New York, Japan, China, Indonesia, Malaysia, United States
PinnedThe monthly employment report on Friday is projected to show that employers added 190,000 jobs in June, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists. That would be a downshift from the 272,000 jobs added in May. The economy remains solid overall, with unemployment still low, the stock market hovering at new highs and wage growth outpacing inflation. But many economists say the labor market is in a sensitive place. Interest rates, which the Federal Reserve has driven significantly higher since 2022, have remained elevated longer than many businesses had hoped.
Persons: , Jerome H, Powell, Nancy Vanden Houten Organizations: Bloomberg, Federal Reserve, Bank of America, Fed, Oxford Locations: U.S
The travel industry is in the midst of another hot summer as Americans hit the road and make for the airport to take advantage of slightly cheaper flights and gas. But the 2024 vacation outlook isn’t all sunny: Like the rest of the American consumer experience this year, it is sharply divided. Many richer consumers — always the lifeblood of the travel industry — are feeling good this year as a strong stock market and rising home values boost their wealth. The gulf between higher- and lower-income consumers has been widening for years, but it is expected to show up especially clearly in travel this summer. Budget hotel chains, by contrast, are expected to report a pullback.
Organizations: Foods, Walmart, Budget
4 You can choose to direct Daily Cash to a Savings account or to an Apple Cash card. By opening a Savings account, Apple Card Owners and Co-Owners are affirmatively electing to have all future Daily Cash automatically deposited into their respective Savings account. Daily Cash may not be divided between Apple Cash Card and Savings accounts. To access and use all Apple Card features and products available only to Apple Card users, you must add Apple Card to Wallet on an iPhone or iPad that supports and has the latest version of iOS or iPadOS. If you reside in the U.S. territories, please call Goldman Sachs at 877-255-5923 with questions about Apple Card.
Persons: Wojtalewicz, Ally Walsh, Casey, Ally, Casey Wojtalewicz, she'll, they're, Daily Cash, Cash, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Apple, Apple Card, Coffee, Savings, Daily, Insider Studios, Goldman Sachs Bank, Salt Lake City Branch, FDIC, Green Dot Bank, Branch, Member FDIC, Apple Cash Card, Minor Outlying Locations: Los Angeles, Echo Park, LA, Salt Lake City, Daily, Salt Lake, American Samoa, Guam, Northern Mariana Islands, United States, U.S
"Consumers need to understand that the cavalry isn't coming anytime soon, so the best thing you can do is take things into your own hands when it comes to lowering credit card interest rates," said Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree. But that hasn't deterred credit card issuers from offering generous terms on balance transfer cards, Rossman said. But right now, it's kind of a Goldilocks environment for credit card issuers." It's also an ideal time for consumers to take advantage of all the options credit card issuers are offering. A balance transfer credit card moves your outstanding debt from one or more credit cards onto a new card, typically with a lower interest rate.
Persons: Matt Schulz, Michele Raneri, APRs aren't, Schulz, Ted Rossman, Rossman, It's Organizations: Federal Reserve, TransUnion, CNBC, Finance, Treasury Department, Federal Reserve Bank of New Locations: U.S, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
While challenges are mounting for consumers, Goldman Sachs still has some names that it sees as smart picks. The latest indicator of how shoppers are faring came Wednesday morning with the May consumer price index reading. The majority of analysts surveyed by LSEG also have a buy rating and price target suggesting the stock can gain another 6%. Their price target reflects the potential for almost 5% in upside. Goldman is not the only firm that sees the stock as a wise idea given the current backdrop.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Kate McShane, McShane, LSEG, JPMorgan's Christopher Horvers, Horvers, Goldman, Jefferies Organizations: Federal, Walmart, Royal, Consumer, Colgate, Palmolive, Wednesday Locations: Royal Caribbean
CNN —At a time when Americans and the Federal Reserve are clamoring for clear-cut data about the state of the economy, Friday’s jobs report was much more opaque than everyone had hoped. Unemployment roseThe unemployment rate rose to 4% from 3.9%. The rise in unemployment can be traced to the findings of the household survey (one of two surveys that feed into the monthly jobs report). Compared to the establishment survey that showed the robust 272,000 net gain in jobs, the household survey faltered. That’s in the service sector, everything from personal care services, dry cleaning, cleaning and home maintenance and vehicle maintenance, she said.
Persons: Dean Baker, ” Diane Swonk, Gus Faucher, “ Jobs, , ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter, ” Pollak, ” Swonk, That’s, ” Andrew Challenger, hirings, Wells, Sarah House, Mike Pugliese, it’s Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve, KPMG, PNC, “ Employers, Challenger
The resurgence in meme-stocks is a bad sign for the broader stock market. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe resurgence in meme stocks is a bad sign for the stock market, according to JPMorgan chief global markets strategist Marko Kolanovic. A peak in speculative trading activity could spell trouble for the broader stock market down the road. Though one barometer of speculative trading, FINRA margin debt, has yet to eclipse its February 2021 peak of $935 billion.
Persons: Marko Kolanovic, Kolanovic, Organizations: JPMorgan, Service, Chicago PMI, GameStop, AMC Entertainment Locations: Chicago
Dividend investing has always been a part of Nancy Tengler's career, which has spanned more than 40 years. She also looks at relative dividend yield, or the yield on the stock relative to its own history and the market, she explained. "It's really because of the power of the compounding of the dividend and the dividend growth." The tech giant authorized its first-ever dividend in April, so it does not have a history of dividend growth. "This is a name that's undervalued in many ways and they've kind of grown up as a company," Tengler said.
Persons: Nancy Tengler's, Tengler, Stephen Squeri, Z, Squeri, CNBC's Jim Cramer, Gen Zs, David Gitlin Organizations: Tengler Investments, Walmart, American Express, Carrier Global, Carrier
Harvard professor Arthur Brooks emphasized curbing bad spending habits for financial happiness. Brooks noted that rising credit card debt is affecting the financial well-being of many Americans. AdvertisementBestselling author and Harvard professor Arthur Brooks believes that achieving financial happiness isn't solved by chasing extra income but by curbing bad spending habits. AdvertisementBorrowing for consumption is the most damaging financial habitBrooks pointed to the recent rise in credit card debt as a factor that affects many people's financial happiness. Credit card debt has become a crisis in the US following the pandemic when many Americans used up their savings.
Persons: Arthur Brooks, Brooks, Organizations: Service, Harvard Kennedy School, Harvard Business School, JPMorgan Chase, JPMorgan Chase Co
Long before people develop dementia, they often begin falling behind on mortgage payments, credit card bills and other financial obligations, new research shows. What they found was striking: Credit scores among people who later develop dementia begin falling sharply long before their disease is formally identified. The issues start even earlier: The study finds evidence of people falling behind on their debts five years before diagnosis. “The results are striking in both their clarity and their consistency,” said Carole Roan Gresenz, a Georgetown University economist who was one of the study’s authors. Credit scores and delinquencies, she said, “consistently worsen over time as diagnosis approaches, and so it literally mirrors the changes in cognitive decline that we’re observing.”
Persons: Long, , Carole Roan Gresenz, Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, Georgetown University Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Equifax
The American shopping spree is losing steam
  + stars: | 2024-05-30 | by ( Bryan Mena | Nathaniel Meyersohn | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —It’s becoming tougher and tougher for Americans to carry on with their spending spree. Years of elevated inflation and the highest interest rates in almost a quarter century are wearing out the US consumer. Savings accumulated during the Covid-19 pandemic are drying up, borrowers continue to rack up debt and delinquencies are marching higher. A second estimate of gross domestic product, released Thursday, showed that consumer spending was weaker in the first three months of the year than initially reported. Economists polled by FactSet are expecting data to be released Friday to show that consumer spending slowed notably in April from March.
Persons: CNN —, they’ll, ” Carol Schleif, FactSet, Thomas Kingsbury, TJ Maxx Organizations: CNN, Savings, BMO Family Office, Employers, Walmart, Dollar, Goods, Abercrombie, Fitch
Analysts are expecting the Memorial Day weekend to usher in yet another summer of strong consumer spending on travel and other leisure activities. “We haven’t seen Memorial Day weekend travel numbers like these in almost 20 years,” Paula Twidale, senior vice president at AAA Travel, said in a release. Spending this summer will likely be a little softer than last year’s, they said, but still strong. The bank’s consumer travel survey showed that 72% of people said they’re planning to travel, with 36% saying they’ve already planned their trip. Even among respondents making less than $75,000 a year, more than 60% said they’re planning to travel this summer.
Persons: ” Paula Twidale, Royal Caribbean’s, ” David Tinsley, they’ve, Joelle, aren’t, Dogecoin, Shiba Inu “, Atsuko Sato, , Sato, ” Kabosu, Kabosu, Shiba, Loretta Mester, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Robin, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN —, Transportation Security Administration, AAA, AAA Travel, Bank of America Institute, Bank of America, Japan, Europe, New York Fed, Public Policy Research, Mizuho Financial, Federal, Global, Index, Board, HP, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Abercrombie, Fitch, Eagle Outfitters, Costco, Dell, Dollar, Hormel, US Commerce Department, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Atlanta Fed Locations: Washington, Caribbean, South Korea, Switzerland, Colombia, Costa Rica, Canada, Mexico, Domestically , California, Florida, California, , Sakura, CAVA, Chewy, Burlington, Birkenstock, Nordstrom, Kohl’s
You’d think that would mean the economy is coasting, since periods of low unemployment are generally associated with higher rates of economic prosperity. That seems to be the case with a lot of recent economic data: No piece of good news comes without other evidence that give economists pause. “I wouldn’t give the economy a clean bill of health,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY. But given consumer spending is one of the biggest drivers of the economy, a pullback can have adverse effects, too. The uglyThe biggest flashing red light in the economy right now is the level of debt people are racking up.
Persons: Zers, , Gregory Daco, Joe Biden, there’s, Donald Trump’s, Here’s what’s, Christopher Waller, ” Waller, ” David Alcaly, Daco, ” Sung Won Sohn Organizations: New, New York CNN, EY, of Labor Statistics, Federal, Gov, Lazard, CNN, New York Fed, Loyola Marymount University, SS Locations: New York, Wisconsin
Read previewGet ready for a recession that hammers consumers, squeezes companies, and drags down stocks, a veteran economist warned. "There is a very high probability of a recession," Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler's chief global economist, told WealthTrack in a recent interview. Whenever that many states have recorded significant increases in joblessness in the past, there's been a nationwide recession, she noted. AdvertisementSeveral parts of the economy are "really, really struggling," Lazar continued. "If we have a recession, inflation will slow," she said.
Persons: , Nancy Lazar, Piper, WealthTrack, Lazar, you've, You've, Lazar said, there's, They've, I'm, I've Organizations: Service, Cornerstone Macro, Business, Fed Locations: joblessness
Rachel Wisniewski | ReutersAmericans are kicking the can down the road on some more-costly, traditionally financed purchases as elevated inflation and interest rates bite. "As a result, consumers continue to scrutinize their spending and make near-term decisions based primarily on need, price and perceived value. But those options have fallen out of favor as interest rates rose. He also cited increased interest rates as another weight on their shoulders. Lofty interest rates have also hampered housing improvement efforts for those staying put, according to Home Depot .
Persons: Rachel Wisniewski, Joe, Shelly Ibach, Ibach, FactSet, Mark Mathews, Platt, J, Mitchell Dolloff, Dow Jones, it's, Mathews, Enphase, Badri Kothandaraman, Marc Bitzer, Patrick T, bode, Robert Ohmes, Richard McPhail, It's, McPhail Organizations: Reuters, Reserve, Prosper, National Retail Federation, San Francisco Fed, New York Fed, Management, Commerce Department, Consumers, Whirlpool, Fallon, Bloomberg, Getty, Bank of America, CNBC Locations: Gilbertsville , Pennsylvania, Minneapolis, U.S, California, Torrance , Calif, Minnesota
Right now, securitized products in general look relatively cheap, said John Kerschner, head of U.S. securitized products and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors. To meet this need, Janus launched its Securitized Income ETF (JSI) in November, which invests across the securitized space. JSI YTD mountain Janus Henderson Securitized Income ETF Collateralized loan obligations Another fund Kerschner manages is the Janus Henderson AAA CLO ETF . One way investors can get broad exposure to CMBS via BlackRock's iShares CMBS ETF . CMBS YTD mountain iShares CMBS ETF year to date However, Janus' Kerschner pointed out that all office work isn't going away.
Persons: Nick Travaglino, Nuveen, Travaglino, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Janus, Kerschner, Rick Rieder, I've, Rieder, CLOs, it's, isn't, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Kershner, We're Organizations: Investors, Fund, Janus Henderson Investors, SEC, Janus Henderson AAA CLO, Bank of America, AAA CLOs, BlackRock AAA CLO Locations: CLOs, BlackRock, Moody's, CMBS, multifamily
1 in 7 Gen Z credit card users are ‘maxed out’
  + stars: | 2024-05-17 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +5 min
CNN —Ariel Barnes plunged into a credit card debt spiral in college, and a decade later she’s yet to escape. Barnes, a manager of gift processing at Jackson State University, has maxed out seven credit cards and is struggling to make minimum payments on $30,000 of credit card debt. Roughly one in seven (15.3%) Gen Z credit card borrowers have maxed out their credit cards, according to new research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. For instance, the median Gen Z borrower’s credit limit is just $4,500, compared with $16,300 for Millennials and $21,800 for Gen X, the NY Fed said. There’s never a good time to carry a credit card balance, but right now is arguably the worst time.
Persons: CNN — Ariel Barnes, Barnes, ” Barnes, Baby Boomer, Xers, , “ I’ve, Zers, Ted Rossman, Gregory Daco, ” Daco, haven’t, X, it’s, There’s, That’s, Daco, CNN’s Alicia Wallace Organizations: CNN, Jackson State University, Federal Reserve Bank of New, Fed, NY Fed, Bankrate.com, Wall, NY, Federal Locations: Jackson , Mississippi, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Americans now owe $1.12 trillion on their credit cards, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Tuesday. Keeping up with credit card debt is getting more difficult. "Rent, when you have it, auto loans, utilities, these are all things consumers prioritize ahead of credit cards." As a result, credit card delinquency rates are higher across the board, the New York Fed and TransUnion found. Over the last year, roughly 8.9% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed reported.
Persons: Charlie Wise, TransUnion's, Young, Wise, TransUnion, Kassandra Martinchek Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed, Finance, Fed, Urban Institute Locations: TransUnion, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, , New
Many Americans are earning more on cash after interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve — and that income can trigger a surprise at tax time. "So many people were shocked by their cash interest earned" and taxes owed, said Boston-based certified financial planner Catherine Valega, founder of Green Bee Advisory. Interest from savings accounts or certificates of deposits incurs regular or "ordinary income" taxes, depending on your federal income tax bracket. Some investors also owe state taxes on interest. Meanwhile, some of the biggest money market funds were paying north of 5% as of that date, according to Crane Data.
Persons: Catherine Valega, Trump Organizations: Federal Reserve, Green Bee, IRS, Finance, Biden, Data Locations: Boston
Most non-retired adults have some type of retirement savings, but only 36% think their savings are on track. New research from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York finds that this retirement savings deficit hasn’t made a dent in when Americans plan to exit, or partially exit, the workforce. “The pandemic-induced change in retirement expectations may continue to affect the labor market in years to come,” they wrote. Yes, but: This is a survey of expectations, researchers at the New York Fed are quick to point out. Just because Americans say they plan to shift to part-time work or retire early, it doesn’t mean that they’ll be able to.
Persons: Felix Aidala, Gizem Kosar, Wilbert van der, , They’re, Alicia Wallace, delinquencies, Joelle, CNN’s Parija, Donna Morris, Morris, ” Morris Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Census, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Social Security, New, Survey, SCE, triannual, Social, Social Security Agency, Lawmakers, New York Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of New, , Public Policy Research, Credit, Walmart, CNN, San Francisco Bay Area Locations: New York, United States, York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bentonville , Arkansas, Walmart’s Dallas, Atlanta, Toronto, Bentonville, San Francisco Bay, Hoboken , New Jersey
Over the last year, roughly 8.9% of credit card balances transitioned into delinquency, the New York Fed found. Credit card rates top 20%At the same time, credit cards have become one of the most expensive ways to borrow money. As the federal funds rate rose, the prime rate did, as well, and credit card rates followed suit. "With the Fed likely to keep rates higher for longer, credit card rates should remain high for the foreseeable future," Rossman said. What to do if you're in credit card debt
Persons: Bankrate, Ted Rossman, Rossman Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New, New York Fed Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York
New data released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that as household debt balances grew during the first quarter, delinquencies also marched higher. Notably, the percentage of credit card balances in serious delinquency (90 days or more late) climbed to its highest level since 2012. The transitions into delinquency — especially serious delinquency — increased across all debt types, according to the report. Overall household debt grew by 1.1% during the first quarter to $17.69 trillion, according to data that is not adjusted for inflation. Credit card balances dipped (as they typically do post-holidays) by $14 billion to $1.12 trillion.
Persons: delinquencies, Joelle, Delinquencies Organizations: CNN, Federal Reserve Bank of New, , Public Policy Research, New York Fed, Credit Locations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, York, New
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumers are feeling the pressure of inflation as household delinquencies continue to riseCNBC’s Steve Liesman joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss the health of the consumer balance sheet.
Persons: Steve Liesman
Unlike traditional banks, nonbank mortgage companies like Rocket Mortgage are heavily exposed to swings in the mortgage market, depend on funding that can dry up during times of stress and don’t have stable deposits to rely on as a safety net. Despite the wonky term, nonbank mortgage companies have become vital players that make most home mortgages in the United States today. As of 2022, nonbank mortgage companies originated about two-thirds of US mortgages and owned the servicing rights on 54% of mortgage balances, according to FSOC. “Nonbank mortgage firms are thinly capitalized, which makes them vulnerable to failure if they lose financing or mortgage defaults spike,” said McCoy, a former mortgage regulator. “Starting in early 2007, we saw a tsunami of nonbank mortgage firms fail precisely for these reasons.”
Persons: Janet Yellen, FSOC, Cooper, ” FSOC, Ginnie Mae, Bob Broeksmit, Patricia McCoy, , McCoy Organizations: New, New York CNN, Rocket, Mortgage, Mortgage Bankers Association, ABA, Boston College Law School, Locations: New York, United States
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