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☆ Morning Bid: The UK consumer is feeling the heat
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Vidya RanganathanIt's not just the heatwave. UK consumers are paying through their noses for fish and chips too, and Friday brings the next quarterly survey of their views on inflation and rates. As Britain contends with one of the highest inflation rates among major advanced economies, the BOE seems set to hike rates a lot more. The stock has soared 17% this year, but pared some gains as grocers across Europe cap some prices. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President Bullard speaks in Oslo, NorwayEarnings/updates: Tesco (TSCO.L)Editing by Sam HolmesOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Vidya Ranganathan It's, BOE, Bullard, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Tesco, Asda, June University of Michigan, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, Thomson Locations: Vidya, gilts, Europe, Brussels, Italy, Oslo, Norway

June 16 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Jamie McGeever, financial markets columnist. The Bank of Japan, the most dovish major central bank in the world, announces its latest policy decision on Friday, with markets highly sensitive to signs of when and to what degree it will ditch its super-loose policy. The BOJ follows surprisingly aggressive interest rate increases and guidance recently from policymakers in Canada and Australia, and this week's hawkish signals from the European Central Bank and, to a lesser extent, the U.S. Federal Reserve. The BOJ remains the outlier among major central banks, promising to maintain its loose policy until it is sure inflation meets the 2% target. If Japanese assets are any indication, investors expect Ueda and his colleagues to err on the dovish side.

Persons: Jamie McGeever, Kazuo Ueda's, Ueda, Fed's Bullard, Waller, Barkin Organizations: The Bank of Japan, Nasdaq, European Central Bank, U.S . Federal Reserve, Bank of America, ECB, Nikkei, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Canada, Australia, Japan

☆ The market isn't buying the Fed's tough talk on interest rates
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-15 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Try as the Federal Reserve did Wednesday to send the message that multiple interest rate hikes are ahead, the market wasn't buying it. Indeed, market pricing reflected a high level of skepticism that the Fed is going to do much more in terms of policy tightening. That came even though 12 of the 18 FOMC members said they envision rate hikes totaling 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, by the end of 2023. "Fed Funds Futures aren't buying to [Wednesday's] FOMC SEP guidance of 2 more rate hikes this year," wrote Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research. Powell's news conference after the decision to skip a rate hike at this week's meeting went in multiple directions.

Persons: Quincy Krosby, Jerome, Powell, Nicholas Colas, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, that's, Matthew Luzzetti, Christopher Waller, James Bullard Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, LPL, Dow Jones Industrial, DataTrek, Empire, Manufacturing Survey, Deutsche Bank, Louis Locations: St

☆ US dollar falls, but off four-week lows, as Fed signals more rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The dollar index was last down 0.3% at 103.01 after hitting a four-week low of 102.66 in the session. While signaling more rate increases, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in a press briefing that the U.S. central bank was not so far away from its target on the benchmark fed funds rate. Officials now expect the fed funds rate to top out at 5.6% this year, implying two more 25 bps increases in 2023, up from the 5.1% estimate in the last set of forecasts released in March. He noted that in 2006, the fed funds rate stood at 5.25% from July 2006 to August 2007 before being cut in the wake of the global financial crisis. Elsewhere, sterling rose 0.4% against the dollar to $1.2660, after hitting its highest since April 2022 of $1.2699.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Chris Low, Louis, James Bullard's, James Bullard, Srijan, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Amanda Cooper, Jonathan Oatis, Lisa Shumaker, Richard Chang Organizations: NEW YORK, U.S, Federal Reserve, Market, Officials, FHN, Louis Fed, Traders, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: U.S, New York, London

The Bank of England in February removed its explicit guidance and tied decisions to inflation data. The Bank of Japan, by contrast, still battling to raise perennially weak inflation, has left the core part of its guidance intact with a pledge to "patiently" sustain loose policies. The European Central Bank says it has adopted a "meeting-by-meeting" approach with "a strong preference against returning to outright forward guidance on policy rates." If the projections show the policy rate moving up later this year, officials will likely face questions if they do as expected and hold rates steady at the June meeting. If the rate is not seen moving up, they will face questions about not being responsive to recent data showing strong inflation despite pledging to be "data dependent."

Persons: Jerome Powell, BOE, Andrew Bailey, Powell, Ben Bernanke, Bernanke, Gregory Daco, Louis, James Bullard, Data's, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Louis Fed, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Central

☆ The job market held up in May. But the Fed may have already decided to pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-02 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Washington, DC CNN —The US labor market picked up momentum in May, once again defying expectations of a slowdown. Many economists, including those at the Fed, still expect a recession later in the year. The labor market and signs of future disinflationThe May jobs report mostly showed that the labor market held up. Some top economists have argued that the strong labor market has had a minor, albeit growing, impact on inflation. Hawkish Fed officials still think the Fed’s job isn’t done.

Persons: That’s, Joe Biden’s, ”, Philip Jefferson, Patrick Harker, “, ” Harker, It’s, ” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s, you’ve, you’d, Dave Gilbertson, hasn’t, Ben Bernanke, ” Jack Macdowell, Louis President James Bullard, Bullard, Louis Fed’s, Louis, Jerome Powell, there’s, Ian Shepherdson, Eugenio Alemán, Raymond James Organizations: DC CNN, Federal, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, National Association for Business Economics, CNN, Employers, of Labor Statistics, BLS, UKG, The Palisades Group, Hawkish Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of St, Louis Fed, Pantheon Locations: Washington, Washington ,

☆ US stocks jump as markets brace for May jobs report and debt ceiling bill nears finish line
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-01 | by ( Morgan Chittum | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

US stocks rose Thursday as markets await important labor data and eye debt ceiling progress. The Labor Department will release the May employment report on Friday morning. It's one of the last big pieces of economic data before the Fed's June 13-14 policy meeting. Sign up for our newsletter to get the inside scoop on what traders are talking about — delivered daily to your inbox. ET close on Thursday:Elsewhere, bitcoin finished May with its first monthly loss of 2023 as traders navigate a murky macro environment.

Persons: —, Louis, James Bullard, Patrick Harker, bitcoin, Brigham Santos Organizations: Labor Department, Service, Federal, Louis Fed, Philadelphia Fed, Lama Locations: St

☆ Major central banks were expected to pause rate hikes soon. Now it's not so clear cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-29 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

Brendan McDermid | ReutersThe market has long been pricing in interest rate cuts from major central banks toward the end of 2023, but sticky core inflation, tight labor markets and a surprisingly resilient global economy are leading some economists to reassess. Economic resilience and persistent labor market tightness could exert upward pressure on wages and inflation, which is in danger of becoming entrenched. The Bank of England The U.K. faces a much tougher inflation challenge than the U.S. and the euro zone, and the U.K. consumer price inflation rate fell by less than expected in April. Meanwhile core inflation jumped to 6.8% from 6.2% in March, which will be of greater concern to the Bank's Monetary Policy Committee. Risk management considerations will, we think, force the MPC to push rates higher and further than previously intended."

☆ A U.S. recession would be 'good news' for markets, strategist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

U.S. consumer price inflation eased to 4.9% year on year in April, its lowest annual pace since April 2021. Markets took the new data from the Labor Department earlier this month as a sign that the Federal Reserve's efforts to curb inflation are finally bearing fruit. They eventually opted for another 25 basis point increase at the time, taking the target fed funds rate to between 5% and 5.25%. By November 2024, the market is pricing a 24.5% probability — the top of the bell curve distribution — that the target rate is cut to the 2.75%-3% range. "To me, it all really is going to come down to 'is the economy gonna touch near a recession?'

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Debt ceiling deal may shift investor focus to further Fed action
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-26 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Megacap technology and growth stocks, which benefit from lower interest rates, have led the market's advance. A Congressional package raising the debt ceiling, meanwhile, is expected to cap spending on government programs. The debt ceiling impasse had weighed on stocks in recent days, but for the most part investors had been expecting Washington to reach a deal. At the same time, the equity market has only just begun to start pricing in more Fed hikes, she added. "The ongoing effects of monetary policy now are setting us up for this wall of debt that people aren't talking about with enough vigor," he said.

☆ Dollar higher as U.S. debt ceiling concerns keep traders nervous
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar hit a two-month high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as a lack of progress in talks over increasing the U.S. debt limit hurt investors' appetite for risk-taking. "I think the dollar saw a modest boost today as stocks have declined, mostly due to the lack of progress on the debt ceiling deal," said John Doyle, vice president of trading and dealing at Monex USA. While most market participants expect a deal eventually, the delay in getting it done was keeping traders nervous, Doyle said. "The focus is slowly going back towards inflation and all this hawkish Fed speak we've been getting," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. "We're probably looking at a market that is repositioning itself for a little bit more dollar strength here as these Fed rate cut bets get pushed back a little bit further and higher for longer."

Persons: Joe Biden, John Doyle, Doyle, James Bullard, Neel Kashkari, we've, Edward Moya, Jerome Powell, Powell, Moya Organizations: U.S, Republicans, Monex USA, Fed, Traders Locations: New York

☆ Morning Bid: Tech politics, debt cap brinkmanship
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Well-choreographed brinkmanship over the debt ceiling standoff looks set to go down to the wire, while technology firms have once again become a battleground in tense geopolitics. As AI-fueled U.S. technology stocks have led the way this year, the S&P (.SPX) has gained almost 10% this year and hit its highest level in nine months on Friday. Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari said on Sunday he could support holding rates steady at the next meeting. Futures markets see more than an 80% chance of a June pause and still price almost 50bp of cuts by yearend. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.

☆ Morning Bid: Not so fast, debt ceiling bulls!
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin BucklandYou didn't think it would be that easy, did you? Investors are on edge after equities and the dollar got knocked back Friday, when Republican negotiators unexpectedly walked out of debt ceiling talks. Discussions now seem to be back on track, with President Joe Biden due to meet House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy later today. Another potential boost comes from the PBOC's assessment that the fundamentals of China's economic stability and long-term improvement have not changed. Luis de Guindos and Philip Lane are among Lagarde's ECB colleagues on speaking duty today.

SummarySummary Companies U.S. debt limit talks to kick off at 5:30 p.m. President Joe Biden and House Republican Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet for talks on Monday after their discussions almost fell apart on Friday. The fresh talks come less than two weeks before a deadline after which the Treasury warned that the federal government will struggle to pay its debts. Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsAdvancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 1.71-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and by a 1.78-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P index recorded 13 new 52-week highs and three new lows, while the Nasdaq recorded 46 new highs and 35 new lows.

☆ Take a look inside RuPaul's fabulous 'whimsical and fun' Beverly Hills mansion that features a ballroom adorned with disco balls
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-21 | by ( Chris Johnston | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

RuPaul and his husband Georges LeBar wanted to give their 1980s Beverly Hills home a makeover. The "Drag Race" star opened the doors of the "whimsical and fun" home to Architectural Digest. RuPaul told design magazine Architectural Digest that they'd "always loved Martyn's aesthetic, so we trusted him. The performer told Architectural Digest that the home is "meant to be whimsical and fun. See more images in the June issue of Architectural Digest, or click here.

With the end of another earnings season in sight, Wall Street's attention has turned to Washington and the debt ceiling deadline. Republican negotiators on Friday walked out of talks on raising the debt limit , abruptly ending a positive week of discussions that appeared to be leading toward a deal. Democrats and the White House have been pushing for a "clean" hike to the debt limit that would push the next deadline past the 2024 presidential election, while Republicans are pressing for spending cuts. Many investors believe this ongoing game of chicken over the debt limit is largely for show, since the U.S. has never defaulted on its debt obligations. U.S. President Joe Biden hosts debt limit talks with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and other congressional leaders in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, U.S., May 9, 2023.

☆ Asian stocks inch up on US debt ceiling hopes, Nikkei hits 33-year high
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) rose 0.66%, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) continued its ascent, rising to its highest since August 1990, during the country's so-called bubble era. Futures indicated European stocks were set to open higher, with Eurostoxx 50 futures up 0.44%, German DAX futures up 0.41% and FTSE futures up 0.23%. China's blue-chip CSI300 Index (.CSI300) rose 0.20%, while the Shanghai Composite Index (.SSEC) was up 0.13%, having reversed from earlier losses. Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. Against a basket of currencies, the dollar rose 0.029% and was wedged near a two-month high.

☆ Asian shares mixed as China growth worries crimp U.S. debt ceiling optimism
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Ankur Banerjee | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) eased 0.20% but was set to eke out a gain of 0.19% for the week. Data in the week underscored that China's economy lost momentum at the beginning of the second quarter, stoking worries over the wobbly post-COVID-19 recovery. Investor attention has been firmly on the negotiations over U.S. debt ceiling and increasing hopes that a deal could be reached sent U.S. shares higher overnight . Hawkish rhetoric from Fed speakers continued with Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard saying inflation was not cooling fast enough to allow the Fed to pause its interest-rate hike campaign. U.S. crude fell 0.14% to $71.76 per barrel and Brent was at $75.78, down 0.11% on the day.

☆ Markets next week may keep thinking about what could go right
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Scott Schnipper | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

At least that's the thinking of a small but growing chorus of voices on Wall Street who outline the case for further stock market gains after both the S & P 500 and Nasdaq Composite touched nine-month highs this past week. The VIX was trading around 16-17 late this week, signaling no great fear among professional traders. Walmart and other retailers this week highlighted consumers are spending less freely, but they're still spending , and that drives two thirds of the economy. Even Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote late this week that he has to entertain what could go right in markets, despite the fact his own view is fundamentally bearish. If that "upside scenario" happens, UBS sees global stocks moving 13% higher by the end of December, and the S & P 500 surging another 6% — to north of 4,400.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Time to exhale and breathe
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

A trader walks out of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Wall Street in New York City on May 12, 2023. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, thinks economic data don't support a pause in rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ CNBC Daily Open: Exhale and breathe
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

People walk by the bronze sculpture 'Fearless Girl' outside of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on April 21, 2023 in New York City. This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan, a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, thinks economic data don't support a pause in rate hikes. Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

☆ Morning Bid: Hopeful ahead of the weekend
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

A look at the day ahead in U.S. and global markets from Yoruk Bahceli. Markets are heading into the weekend basking in optimism that a debt ceiling deal to avert a catastrophic U.S. Treasury default will be struck soon. His team have reported progress in talks and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy has said a deal is "doable" by Sunday. The S&P 500 is up 1.8% this week, set for its best week since end-March when markets were in panic mode around a banking crisis dragging down the economy. Fed speakers also sounded the alarm; Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and St Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday U.S. inflation doesn't look like it's cooling fast enough to merit a rate hike pause.

☆ Federal Reserve officials are growing skeptical over suspending rate hikes
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-19 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Some officials are concerned inflation isn’t cooling fast enough, which could prompt an 11th consecutive rate hike when policymakers meet in June. Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell and former Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke (R) participate in a discussion at the Federal Reserve Board building in Washington, DC, May 19, 2023. Saul Loeb/AFP/Getty ImagesEarlier this month, Fed officials voted unanimously to raise the benchmark lending rate by a quarter point to a range of 5-5.25%, while signaling a possible pause ahead. Of course, Fed officials’ thinking on monetary policy could drastically change if the United States defaults on its debt, which could happen as soon as June 1. Fed officials always mention that their views on interest rates largely depend on what economic indicators show, resisting taking an absolute stance on how they will vote.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 97 cents, or 1.3%, to settle at $71.86. A stronger dollar can weigh on oil demand by making the fuel more expensive for holders of other currencies. High interest rates boost borrowing costs, which can slow the economy and reduce oil demand. The strength of April U.S. economic data in addition to optimism about the debt ceiling negotiations have strengthened market expectations of a further hike, ANZ Research said in a note on Thursday. Another factor that could reduce oil demand was a fire in Mexico at the Salina Cruz refinery owned by Mexican state oil company Pemex.

☆ Fed's hawks make a pitch against a rate-hike pause
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

On Thursday, rate-futures markets reflected a one-in-three chance of a June rate hike, compared with a one-in-10-chance seen a week ago. The Fed has lifted borrowing costs at each meeting since March 2022, bringing them from near zero to a 5.00-5.25% range as of early this month. Consumer price inflation, for instance, edged down to a 4.9% annual pace in April but is still far above the Fed's 2% goal. However, his embrace of the idea that there is still a lot of policy tightening in the pipeline suggests he could be comfortable with a pause. Dallas Fed's Logan had the opposite presumption.

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