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Why a 'no landing' scenario may take place after all
  + stars: | 2024-10-15 | by ( Sean Conlon | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
A soft landing occurs when economic growth slows just enough to bring down inflation below the Federal Reserve's 2% target without tipping the economy into a recession. She thinks the economy is experiencing a no-landing scenario as it continues to expand without slowing down. "So far, clearly bank earnings are coming in better than expected, both top line and bottom line. "The other thing that that's showing [is] that our call for the 'no landing' is actually playing out." It's not just bank earnings that point to solid economic growth.
Persons: BNY Wealth's Alicia Levine, Levine, It's, Peter Perkins Organizations: JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, U.S, MRB Partners Locations: U.S, Wells Fargo
The Federal Reserve is about a month into its rate-cutting cycle, and money market fund yields are already starting to pay less. That's where short and ultra-short duration bond funds and ETFs may come into play. An eye on duration Duration is a measure of a bond's price sensitivity when interest rates fluctuate. In that case, ultra-short bond funds and short-term bond funds might be "a natural landing spot for that cash." Those ultra-short bond funds have one to three years of duration and offer some stability day to day, Bartolini added.
Persons: Brett Sheely, Matthew Bartolini, Bartolini, AllianceBernstein's Sheely, , Vincent Caintic Organizations: Federal, Investment Company Institute, State Street Global Advisors, SPDR, SPDR Americas Research, Bond, SEC, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp, . Locations: SPDR Americas
Frustrated small cap investors are turning to companies with profits as the bull market in big cap stocks starts its third year. Not so with the small-cap Russell 2000 : it didn't bottom until October 2023, and is only 35% off the low, still 9% shy of its historic high in November 2021. Including 2024, the S & P 500 has outperformed the small-cap Russell 2000 in 12 of the past 15 years. A similar fund that also tracks the S & P SmallCap 600 Index is the iShares Core S & P Small-Cap ETF (IJR). Other small cap funds with a profitability tilt have also seen strong inflows recently, including the Dimensional U.S. Small Cap ETF (DFAS) and the Avantis Small Cap Value ETF (AVUV).
Persons: Russell, hasn't, it's, SPSM, Rob Harvey, Ben Slavin, BNY Mellon Organizations: Russell, Health Technology, Technology Services, Technology, Street Global Advisors, U.S, Value, Dimensional Funds, BNY
Investors need to be wary as sticky inflation remains a risk, Deutsche Bank says. But it's not yet time for investors to relax, Deutsche Bank wrote on Monday. "If inflation does return, this could have very important implications for markets," Deutsche Bank strategists said. While that much is true, history shows that easing cycles are precisely the time to be cautious over inflation, Deutsche said. The firm cited the fact that in August, US M2 money supply rose 2.0% year-over-year, the highest growth rate since September 2022.
Persons: , Brent, Deutsche Organizations: Deutsche Bank, Service, Federal Reserve, Deutsche, Atlanta Locations: China, Israel, Iran, Iranian
Contradictory messages about inflation and the labor market have investors on guard. Price growth is slowly falling from its peak, but it exceeded expectations in September after a hot reading in August. AdvertisementInflation is a threat that won't sink the economyWhile there's plenty of economic data to get excited about, persistent price growth is a problem. "If we're going to be data dependent, we have to at least look at the data," Sosnick said. Higher-than-hoped inflation is rarely compatible with an economic downturn, so if price growth does persist, it likely won't be in an earnings-crushing contraction.
Persons: , Steve Sosnick, they've, John Kerschner, Janus Henderson, Sosnick, Preston Caldwell, Morningstar's, Jim Baird, Plante, Baird, Joe Quinlan —, Skyler Weinand, Regan, Weinand, We've Organizations: Service, US, of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Interactive Brokers, Business, Manufacturing, Index, Janus, Janus Henderson Investors, Equity, Financial, Merrill, Private Bank, Bank of America, Regan Capital, Fed Locations: China
After the latest blast of consumer inflation data, traders are facing a conundrum around how they should interpret the monthly numbers. September's consumer price index report topped the Street's expectations, rising 0.1% from the month prior and increasing at a pace of 2.4% over the past 12 months. Still, the annual inflation rate was the lowest since February 2021. Relative to expectations, September's CPI number does not imply a reacceleration of inflation. Rather, the rate of consumer inflation continues to slow, albeit at a more modest pace than some had hoped for.
Persons: Dow Jones, Nonfarm payrolls, Austan Goolsbee, Ron Insana Organizations: of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, Social Security, Dow Jones, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, CNBC Locations: U.S
Russia's President Vladimir Putin visits Uralvagonzavod, the country's main tank factory in the Urals, in Nizhny Tagil on February 15, 2024. Ramil Sitdikov | Afp | Getty ImagesRussia's war-orientated economy and plans for unprecedented military spending risk deepening major imbalances within the government's finances, analysts say. Russia's military-industrial complex, feeding an insatiable war machine, has expanded significantly since the war began, as a result. Signalling its commitment to prosecuting the war in Ukraine, combined spending on both national defense and security will account for around 40% of Russia's total government spending in 2025, the draft budget suggested. Notably, defense spending will exceed twice the amount allocated for social needs such as pensions, Reuters noted.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Uralvagonzavod, Ramil Sitdikov, Mikhail Mishustin, Tursa, Liam Peach, Peach, Alexander NEMENOV, ALEXANDER NEMENOV, Alexander Nemenov Organizations: Afp, Getty, Reuters, Sputnik, Capital Economics, Russian Statistics Agency Locations: Urals, Nizhny Tagil, Ukraine, Russia, Russian, Western, Central, Eastern Europe, Moscow, AFP
Hurricane Milton is battering Florida days after Hurricane Helene wreaked havoc on several states. The two events are the latest sign that hurricanes are becoming more frequent, more ferocious, and more costly. They're also hitting employment and economic growth, at least in the short term. They estimated that a Category 5 storm could lower fourth-quarter annualized GDP growth by 0.14 percentage points, from a forecasted 2.3% to below 2.2%. "Rebuilding should provide a boost to economic activity in those affected regions in subsequent months, and potentially years," Sweet told BI, quoting from his recent note.
Persons: Milton, Hurricane Helene, Helene, They're, Adam Smith, Jefferies, Harvey, Ian, Smith, Michael Mann, Ryan Sweet, Sweet, Mann, Implan Organizations: Service, Hurricanes, National Oceanic, Atmospheric Administration, NOAA, University of Pennsylvania, Oxford Economics, Boeing, Milton, Potsdam Institute, Climate Impact Research Locations: Florida, North Carolina, Milton
No matter who voters choose, whether it is former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris , Liwag doesn't expect a meaningful shake-up in the outlook for defense stocks. Still, the analyst notes that even cases where an administration cuts defense spending, stocks can still carve out gains. During the Obama administration, the defense budget fell 3.3%, but defense stocks gained 2.1%. The defense stocks Morgan Stanley covers have outperformed the S & P 500 since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Liwag said. "Historically, the conventional wisdom has been that Republicans are positive for defense spending and defense stocks, while Democrats are negative," Harned said.
Persons: Bernstein, Douglas Harned, Lockheed Martin, Morgan Stanley, Kristine Liwag, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, Liwag, Bernstein's Harned, Harned, Harris, Wolfe Research's, Tobin Marcus, Marcus, Ronald Epstein, Epstein, Trump, Northrop, Obama, Northrop Grumman, Morgan Stanley's, Michael Ciarmoli, Truist, Leonardo Organizations: P Aerospace, Defense, Industry, L3Harris Technologies, Lockheed, CNBC, " Bank of America, Democratic, Senate, Republican, U.S . House, Trump White House, Republican Senate, Trump, Abrams, Space Force, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Hamas, Dynamics, Northrop, Gulfstream, Leonardo DRS, Moog, Republicans Locations: Ukraine, U.S, Russia, Crimea, Iran, Israel
Nonfarm payrolls added 254,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage points. "It was a very good report across every indicator in there," said Aaron Sojourner, a senior researcher at the W.E. As they barnstorm across battleground states, Harris and Trump paint dueling pictures of the U.S. labor market. Jim Watson | AFP | Getty ImagesThe jobs report adds to a flurry of good economic news in recent weeks, with metrics that could potentially amount to the best economic upswing in decades. Following the jobs report blowout, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed out last week at a fresh all-time high of 42,352.75.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, payrolls, Dow, Aaron Sojourner, Harris, Trump, Jim Watson, I've, Mark Zandi, Biden, Clinton, Justin Wolfers, stoking Organizations: . Upjohn Institute, Employment Research, Trump, CBS, Republican, Ryder Center for Health, Physical Education, Saginaw Valley State University, AFP, Getty, Federal Reserve, University of Michigan, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, chipmaker Micron Technology, Oracle Locations: U.S, Michigan, America, Saginaw, Saginaw , Michigan
Alphadyne Asset Management hired JPMorgan's Thomas Byuen as a commodity index portfolio manager. Hedge funds like Balyasny and Jain Global have poached big bank commodity traders in recent years. Byuen, global head of commodity index trading, joined the bank in 2012 out of college, according to his LinkedIn profile and industry records. More recently, Jain Global, the most hyped new hedge fund launch in years, hired BofA's Max Lee, head of commodity and FX systematic strategy trading. Commodities is a top strategy at the fund, which brought in ex-Macquarie exec David Hochberg to lead the unit.
Persons: JPMorgan's Thomas Byuen, , wasn't, Thomas Byuen, Max Lee, Mike Severo, LMR, Goldman Sachs, Will Scott, Morgan Stanley, Dan Deighton, Balyasny, Deighton's, BofA's Max Lee, David Hochberg Organizations: Asset Management, Jain, Service, Alphadyne, Management, JPMorgan, Verition Fund Management, Balyasny Asset Management, LMR Partners, Commodities, Macquarie Locations: BofA
Ed Yardeni predicts the S&P 500 could reach 8,000 by 2030. AdvertisementThere's a simple reason one of the most bullish Wall Street strategists expects the stock market to continue rising in the years ahead: compound interest. At a compounded annual growth rate of between 6% and 7%, the S&P 500 is on track to hit 8,000 by 2030, representing potential upside of about 40% from current levels. "The S&P 500 stock price index is driven by its earnings per share (EPS), which has been growing mostly between 6% and 7% since the 1950s," Yardeni said. He added: "EPS could double to $400 by the end of the decade in our Roaring 2020s scenario," Yardeni said.
Persons: Ed Yardeni, , it's, Yardeni Organizations: Service, Yardeni, Federal Reserve
Stocks struggled this week as rising tensions in the Middle East set off the strongest rally in oil prices since March 2023. "The stock market has been living up to October's reputation of increased volatility," said Glen Smith, chief investment officer at GDS Wealth Management. Inflation report, Fed minutes on deck In the week ahead, investors will keep an eye on a couple of potential catalysts. On Wednesday, investors will parse minutes from September's central bank gathering for insights into the future path of monetary policy. "I would say the inflation report is probably less important than it used to be," Dickson said.
Persons: Stocks, Glen Smith, Said, Mike Dickson, Chris Zaccarelli, Zaccarelli, Investment's Dickson, It's, Dickson, Wells, John Williams, JPMorgan Chase Organizations: Dow Jones Industrial, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, GDS Wealth Management, Federal, Horizon Investments, CNBC Pro, Independent, Alliance, PepsiCo, Delta, JPMorgan Chase, PepsiCO, New York Fed, PPI, University of Michigan, BlackRock, Bank of NY Mellon, JPMorgan Locations: White, Wells Fargo, Fastenal, Wells
The rise and fall of the "Nifty Fifty" stocks in the 1970s is a cautionary tale for investors in the Magnificent Seven craze, according to BCA Research. The "Nifty Fifty" refers to a loose group of stocks including Coca-Cola , IBM , Xerox and Pfizer , that rose to prominence in the 1970 to 1973 bull market. The comments from BCA come as the Magnificent Seven stocks continue powering the market to new heights despite a modest pullback this summer. The surge stems from ongoing bets around growth stocks and the artificial intelligence theme, especially as the Federal Reserve begins cutting rates. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia in 2024 There are plenty of differences between the Nifty Fifty and the Magnificent Seven, Peta said, including megacap tech names' longer track record of outperforming the market.
Persons: Doug Peta, BCA's, Peta Organizations: BCA Research, IBM, Xerox, Pfizer, BCA, Federal Reserve, Nvidia
This latest bull run has been strong, even by historical standards. The broad market index has also reached a record above 5,700 — with some on the Street expecting it to top 6,000 before year-end. The bull market will be two later this month. .SPX mountain 2022-09-30 SPX since Q4 2022 The first: "The disinflation that has defined the cyclical bull needs to remain in place," said Clissold. The second element needed for the bull run to carry on is a successful soft landing.
Persons: Ned Davis, Ed Clissold, Clissold Organizations: Ned Davis Research, Fed, JPMorgan
Investors are worried that labor market weakness could thwart a soft landing. AdvertisementAs inflation creeps downward, investors are increasingly turning their attention to the labor market to look for clues of a soft landing. Labor market fundamentals remain strong, according to Joseph Briggs, co-lead of Goldman Sachs' global economics team and a former Federal Reserve senior economist. "If we take a broad assessment across a number of different labor market indicators, they are still roughly where they were from 2017 to 2019, and that was a pretty healthy labor market," Briggs said. AdvertisementIn Briggs' view, the following three indicators point to a normalizing late-cycle labor market, and in turn, a strong economy.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Joseph Briggs doesn't, Briggs, , shouldn't, Joseph Briggs, We're Organizations: Service, Labor, Federal Reserve, Real
Goldman Sachs predicts gold prices will hit $2,900 per troy ounce by early 2025. AdvertisementThe price of gold is set to extend its record-setting rally to new highs by early 2025, according to a note from Goldman Sachs. Goldman boosted its gold price target to $2,900 per troy ounce from $2,700, representing upside of about 9% from current levels. AdvertisementSuch gains would come after gold prices have already rallied 29% year-to-date. Goldman highlighted that the central banks of emerging market countries like China are behind the structural advance of gold prices since 2022.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Goldman, , Lina Thomas, Thomas Organizations: Service, London OTC Locations: China, London, Israel, Iran, East
UBS predicts a "Roaring '20s" economy, assigning a 50% chance to such an expansion by 2030. Solid data revisions, along with Fed rate cuts, support the optimistic outlook. "It's no longer too soon nor too optimistic to suggest that the US will experience a Roaring '20s economy," UBS said. AdvertisementA slew of bullish factors suggest the economy could be headed towards "Roaring '20s" status, according to a Monday note from UBS. Advertisement"The bread crumbs suggest a policy reaction function that is directionally supportive of a Roaring '20s outcome," Draho said of the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's full employment goals.
Persons: , UBS's, Jason Draho, Draho, Jerome Powell's Organizations: UBS, Service, Treasury, Atlanta, CPI
Elsewhere, TD Cowen raised its price target on Costco to $975. 7:04 a.m.: TD Cowen raises Costco price target TD Cowen is even more bullish on Costco after hosting the company's leadership for a post-earnings meeting. Analyst Brian Bedell reiterated his buy rating and lifted his price target by $3 to $27, implying about 13% upside. With that, analyst Stephen Scouten upgraded Amerant to overweight from neutral and raised his price target by 50 cents to $25.60. — Pia Singh 5:50 a.m.: TD Cowen upgrades Accenture Investors should buy shares of Accenture as the company's recovery gains steam, according to TD Cowen.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, TD Cowen, Cowen, Oliver Chen, Costco's, Chen, Gary Millerchip, — Pia Singh, Brian Bedell, Bedell, Robinhood, Wells, Donald Fandetti, Fandetti, Piper Sandler, Amerant, Stephen Scouten, Scouten, JPMorgan Chase, Betsy Graseck, Graseck, NIM, Bryan Bergin, Bergin, Fred Imbert Organizations: CNBC, JPMorgan Chase, Accenture, Costco, Deutsche Bank, American, Amerant, JPMorgan, Services Locations: Florida, Friday's
Americans' love affair with cash may be costing them in the long run, according to Wells Fargo. A record $6.42 trillion is sitting in money market funds, as of Wednesday, according to the Investment Company Institute . The seven-day annualized yield on the Crane 100 list of the 100 largest taxable money funds is currently 4.75%. During Fed rate decreases, direct money market investments, like Treasury bills, will absorb the cuts quicker than money market funds. "A long-term risk of relying on money market funds as a sizable allocation is the cash drag over our strategic time horizon," she said.
Persons: Peter Crane, Crane, Michelle Wan, Wan, Wells Fargo, Brian Rehling Organizations: Investment Company Institute, Federal Reserve, Crane Locations: Wells Fargo
As a result of that excitement, China ETFs are dominating the list of top performing funds in September, according to FactSet. The iShares MSCI China ETF (MCHI) was up about 22% on the month, while the KraneSharesCSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) was up more than 32%. Other top performers include the Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF (CHIQ) and the Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF (PGJ) , with September gains of roughly 32% and 30%, respectively. The MSCI China Index's total annualized return during that period is under 1%. The average here is a gain of +78% over 176 trading days vs. a decline of -42% over 165 trading days," the note continued.
Persons: Todd Sohn, David Tepper, there's Organizations: People's Bank of, CSI, China Internet, Dragon China Locations: People's Bank of China, China, U.S
Wall Street analysts' recommendations and in-depth analysis can help investors choose dividend stocks that can enhance total returns with passive income and stock price appreciation. Northern Oil and GasThis week's first dividend stock is Northern Oil and Gas (NOG), a non-operated, upstream energy asset owner. Recently, Mizuho analyst William Janela initiated a buy rating on NOG stock with a price target of $47. With a quarterly dividend of $1.40 per share (annualized dividend of $5.60), DRI stock offers a dividend yield of 3.3%. He added that the company's price reduction across nearly 5,000 items over the summer fueled higher unit and dollar sales.
Persons: Wall, NOG, William Janela, Janela, TipRanks, Darden, Peter Saleh, Uber, Saleh, Jim Lee, Jefferies, Corey Tarlowe, Tarlowe, Lee Organizations: Federal Reserve, Wall Street, Northern Oil, Mizuho, Darden, Uber, Olive Garden, Target, PepsiCo Locations: U.S, Olive
Then there's the upside progress made in the third quarter without the leadership of super-cap tech – the equal-weighted S & P 500 is up nearly 9% since June 30 and the Nasdaq 100 up less than 2%. Goldman Sachs here plots the S & P 500 forward P/E at the time of each initial rate cut in a cycle. For sure, a breather would make sense for the broad market, with the S & P 500 up 11 of the past 15 days. In either case, it's a notable deviation from the story of placid strength being told by the S & P 500 itself. The median Wall Street strategist target for the S & P 500 is now well below the current index level, usually not something one sees at an ultimate market peak.
Persons: Scott Chronert, isn't, Goldman Sachs, it's, John Kolovos, Bitcoin's Organizations: Nasdaq, Citi, Fed Locations: China
Massive stimulus from central banks in the U.S., China and elsewhere is driving bubble-like stock returns and could head off a global recession, according to Bank of America. "It's the bubble dream," BofA chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in his weekly "Flow Show" breakdown of where investors are putting their money. "Fed slashing, oil crashing, China inflating ... and if this China stimulus don't work then geopolitical risks [are] going to soar." But while some indicators do point to a slowing in global growth, the abundant forecasts for recession have eased. "Fed cutting into recession is negative for risk assets, but Fed cutting with no recession is positive and investors firmly of view Fed + China is sufficient policy easing to short-circuit recession risk," Hartnett wrote.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Federal Reserve, People's Bank of China, Investors Locations: U.S, China
Indexes rallied Thursday on positive jobs data and promises of further economic stimulus in China. AdvertisementUS stocks rallied on Thursday, fueled by China stimulus measures and positive jobs data to pare losses from yesterday. The indexes rallied after leaders in China pledged to support the economy with more strong policy measures. The indexes' gains were also fueled by positive labor market data. Meanwhile, second-quarter GDP came in unrevised at a 3% annualized rate, according to data released Thursday.
Persons: , Eric Jackson, SocGen Organizations: Service, Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: China, unrevised
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