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watch nowThe Bank of Japan has pushed back on speculation its recent policy adjustment marked the start of a tightening cycle. On Friday, the BOJ unexpectedly loosened its yield curve control, a move some market watchers said marked the start of the end of the Japanese central bank's ultra-easy monetary policy position. The BOJ's yield curve control is part of its ultra-easy monetary policy, which also includes keeping short-term interest rates at -0.1%. It is aimed at reflating growth in the world's third-largest economy and sustainably achieve its 2% inflation target after years of deflation. There is no free lunch for any policy," Ichida said.
Persons: Shinichi Ichida, Ichida, Bank of Japan Ichida Organizations: Bank of, Bank of Japan Locations: Bank, Bank of Japan, Chiba prefecture
But the benign reaction across markets to the BOJ's latest "yield curve control" tweak suggests BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda may have timed this one just right. In those eight months global inflation has topped out and is now clearly falling, and major central banks are closer to "peak rates." Barclays analysts reckon the BOJ will scrap YCC in October, which would be "sufficiently justified" by Japan's strengthening inflation dynamics. BOJ GETS MARKET BUY-INWhenever the BOJ decides to start offloading its JGBs, there will be plenty of pent-up demand. But the early signs suggest investors believe the BOJ has timed it right and can, to coin a phrase, achieve its own "soft landing."
Persons: Issei Kato, Kazuo Ueda, Government Bond, Jamie McGeever, Paul Simao Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Government, Reuters, HSBC, Barclays, International Monetary Fund, U.S . Federal, European Central Bank, Reserve Bank of Australia, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, ORLANDO, Florida
A man walks at the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan, January 18, 2023. While some said they expected inflation to slow back below 2% as cost-push factors dissipate, one member said the risk of inflation staying elevated above the level "remained high." Several board members said service prices were rising in a sign domestic factors were playing an increasing role in pushing up Japan's inflation, the minutes showed. "We cannot rule out the chance we are underestimating the sustainability of inflation in Japan," one of the nine board members was quoted as saying in the minutes. The outlook for medium- and long-term inflation expectations was crucial to how the BOJ operates YCC, another member said.
Persons: Issei Kato, BOJ's, Shinichi Uchida, Leika Kihara, Tom Hogue Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO
While an ISM survey offered a tough assessment of U.S. manufacturing conditions, so-called hard data suggest the sector is shuffling along. Federal Reserve data in June showed factory production rebounded in the second quarter, ending two straight quarterly declines. Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending increased solidly last month and May's data was revised higher, boosted by outlays in both single and multifamily housing projects, the Commerce Department said. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
Persons: Dado Ruvic, Steven Ricchiuto, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Herbert Lash, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, outlays, Commerce Department, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Mizuho Securities USA, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan, U.S, Natixis Investment, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore
The Aussie fell 1.4% to $0.6626, wiping out the 0.87% gains it clocked in July and set for its sharpest daily drop since March. "I think it was right that the RBA held today, given trimmed mean inflation and unemployment matched the RBA's forecasts. China's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) missed analysts forecasts and showed the first decline in activity since April. The euro eased 0.2% to $1.0975, not too far from an almost three-week low touched on Friday. Money markets now see a 60% probability that the Bank of England will hike rates by 25 basis points on Thursday.
Persons: David Gray, Matt Simpson, Carlos Casanova, Kit Juckes, Sterling, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, Alex Richardson, Hugh Lawson Organizations: REUTERS, Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Japan's, City, Federal, P Global, European Central Bank, ECB, Societe Generale, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Sydney, Australia, China, Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Bank of England, London, Singapore
Over the two trading days since, the market has tried to second-guess the pace at which the BOJ wants yields to move, while the BOJ has run special bond-buying operations to cap yields. "There is only a very, very small possibility of a sudden or very steep rise in JGB yields, because too many people want to buy the bonds. The maximum yield investors demanded was 0.6%, just 10 basis points (bps) above the previous policy cap. The promise of an extra 10-20 bps of JGB yield means 10-year JGBs hedged from dollars into yen can yield upwards of 6%. As per BOJ data, lifers and pension funds held roughly 26% of a 1,132 trillion yen ($7.93 trillion) JGB market at the end of 2019.
Persons: It's, we've, Ales Koutny, Rong Ren Goh, BOJ, Tomoya Masanao, Masanao, Rae Wee, Tom Westbrook, Harry Robertson, Alun John, Vidya Ranganathan, Himani Sarkar Organizations: Bank of Japan, JGBs, Vanguard Asset Management, Eastspring Investments, Foreigners, U.S, Nippon Life, Asia Pacific, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, TOKYO, United States, Europe, Singapore, JGBs, Belgian, Japan, PIMCO, Sydney, London
"As the new line in the sand is 1%, it would make sense to broaden the YCC band by this level." Investor attention during Asian hours will be on the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. "However, we expect any post RBA strength in Aussie to be short lived given the weak global economic outlook." Bank of England's policy meeting on Thursday is in the spotlight, with markets evenly divided between a 25- and 50-basis-point increase. Reporting by Ankur Banerjee in Singapore; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Carlos Casanova, Kristina Clifton, CBA's Clifton, Sterling, Ankur Banerjee, Muralikumar Organizations: of Japan's, Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Survey, Bank of, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Hong Kong, U.S, Singapore
Yen eases to 3-week low as traders weigh BOJ shift, focus on RBA
  + stars: | 2023-08-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +3 min
The yen slipped to a fresh three-week low on Tuesday as traders pondered the Bank of Japan's steps last week to tweak its yield curve control policy, while the Australian dollar was soft ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's policy decision. "As the new line in the sand is 1%, it would make sense to broaden the YCC band by this level." Investor attention during Asian hours will be on the policy decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. "However, we expect any post RBA strength in Aussie to be short lived given the weak global economic outlook." Bank of England's policy meeting on Thursday is in the spotlight, with markets evenly divided between a 25- and 50-basis-point increase.
Persons: Carlos Casanova, Kristina Clifton, CBA's Clifton Organizations: of Japan's, Reserve Bank of, Reserve Bank of Australia, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Survey, Bank of Locations: Asia, Hong Kong, U.S
Dollar gains after Fed loan survey, yen slips
  + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Herbert Lash | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The dollar index , a measure of the greenback against six major currencies, rose 0.28% after trading little changed earlier in the session. The euro retreated from early gains after data showed economic growth in Europe nudged higher and inflation ticked lower. The dollar advanced 0.78% against the yen at 142.250 after a fresh intervention by the BoJ on Monday. The dollar posted its first monthly loss against the yen since March, and its second successive monthly loss against the euro and pound. The euro earlier rose after data showed euro zone inflation fell further in July, while the bloc returned to growth in the second quarter of 2023 with a greater-than-expected expansion.
Persons: Marc Chandler, Chandler, Jackson, Joe Manimbo, Sterling, BoE, Herbert Lash, Alun John, Rae Wee, Himani Sarkar, Kim Coghill, Christina Fincher, Mark Heinrich, Deepa Babington Organizations: YORK, Federal Reserve, Survey, Bannockburn Global, Index, Bank of Japan, China's State, Federal, Market, Central Bank, Rabobank, ECB, Bank of England's, Thomson Locations: Bannockburn, New York, U.S, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Washington, Europe, Asia, China, London, Singapore
Photo taken on April 20, 2022 shows the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes in Tokyo, Japan. Photo taken on April 20, 2022 shows the Japanese yen and U.S. dollar banknotes in Tokyo, Japan. The U.S. dollar was conversely headed for a monthly loss on the prospect that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hike cycle, a key driver of the dollar's strength, could have concluded with last week's 25-basis-point increase. Elsewhere, the dollar edged broadly lower in early Asia trade, with the dollar index steadying at 101.62. It was headed for a monthly decline of roughly 1.2%, extending its loss to a second month.
Persons: they've, Chris Weston, Carol Kong, Sterling, CBA's Organizations: U.S, Bank of Japan, Federal, Market Committee, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Central Bank, Bank of, Australian, New Zealand Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Asia, U.S
CNBC Daily Open: More signs the Fed might stop hikes
  + stars: | 2023-07-31 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
This report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Stripping out food and energy prices, core PCE was 4.1%, the lowest annual increase since September 2021, and rose 0.2% from May. Meanwhile, Germany's gross domestic product stagnated in the second quarter, according to flash estimates, but France's GDP grew by 0.5%, easily beating the expected 0.1%. CNBC Pro's Sarah Min breaks down what analysts are expecting from those data points releasing this week.
Persons: Sarah Min Organizations: CNBC, Federal Reserve, Google, of Japan, Apple, Amazon, Dow Jones Industrial, Big Tech
The yen was about 0.3% lower at 141.57 per dollar, but was headed to end July with a roughly 2% gain, its first monthly rise since March. The dollar eventually ended the Friday session with a 1.2% gain against the Japanese currency, though that was after it had slid 1% to a session-low of 138.05 yen. DOLLAR EYES MONTHLY LOSSThe U.S. dollar was headed for a monthly loss on the prospect that the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate-hike cycle - a key driver of the dollar's strength - could have concluded with last week's 25-basis-point increase. The dollar index was last 0.11% higher at 101.72, but was eyeing a monthly decline of more than 1%, extending its loss to a second month. The euro rose 0.02% to $1.1017 and was eyeing a monthly gain of about 1%, though last week's European Central Bank policy meeting similarly raised the possibility of a rate pause in September.
Persons: they've, Chris Weston, Carol Kong, Sterling, Rae Wee, Himani Sarkar Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Federal, Market, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Central Bank, Bank of, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, U.S
Since 2016, the BOJ has guided short-term interest rates at minus 0.1% and the 10-year government bond yield at around 0% in action known as yield curve control (YCC). It has also set an allowance band of 0.5% above and below the 10-year yield target. The BOJ was criticised by investors last year for distorting market pricing by defending the 0.5% yield cap with unlimited bond buying. The bank has forestalled the risk by deciding to intervene only when the 10-year yield could breach 1.0%. It may wait until the findings become available around May before raising interest rates.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Ueda, Leika Kihara, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S ., Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan
Japan needs to transition sooner to a "new normal" as the country's current ultra low interest rate policy regime has been "inappropriate" and "very harmful" for the economy, according to a strategist. Central banks around the world have raised rates aggressively to rein in inflation, but Japan has kept its benchmark rate at -0.1% since 2016. On Friday, the Bank of Japan kept its ultra low interest rates unchanged but shocked financial markets by loosening its yield curve control — or YCC. "And when you have zero interest rates, it creates all sorts of distortions and dislocations that I think are very harmful." Moving away from negative interest rates would have far-reaching effects on the Japanese economy, from corporate investment to household savings.
Persons: Kevin Hebner, CNBC's, they've, Hebner, It's, Japan hasn't, hasn't Organizations: Bank of Japan Locations: Japan
BOJ Governor Ueda's comments at news conference
  + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Following are excerpts from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments at his post-meeting news conference, which was conducted in Japanese, as translated by Reuters:BOND YIELD"We will not tolerate an increase in the 10-year bond yield above 1% and will step in if it does. ON WHY THE BOJ DECIDED TO MOVE NOW"The inflation forecast for this fiscal year has been revised up quite significantly. The bond market is pretty stable now and we saw uncertainty over the outlook very high. Given uncertainty over the outlook, we decided to pre-empt risks by setting 1% as a loose framework along with the 0% target and the 0.5% yield band." ON WHETHER THE MARKET'S SIDE-EFFECTS OF YCC INCLUDE VOLATILE CURRENCY MARKET MOVES"The BOJ does not target currency rates in guiding monetary policy.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda's, haven't, That's, we're, Leika Kihara, Subhranshu Sahu Organizations: Bank of Japan, Reuters, THE, Thomson Locations: Japan
Morning Bid: Bank of Japan sets the stage for higher yields
  + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
[1/2] A Japanese flag flutters on the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, March 15, 2016. The BOJ maintained its guidance allowing the 10-year yield to move 0.5% around the 0% target, but said those would be "references" rather than "rigid limits". There's weakness all around in stock markets, with MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) down, along with Japan's Nikkei (.N225). The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) fell 0.67% to snap its longest winning streak since 1987. Second-quarter GDP estimates for Spain, France and Germany should show modestly expanding and yet struggling economies, if latest purchasing manager indexes are any indication.
Persons: Toru Hanai, Vidya Ranganathan, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, there's, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, ECB, U.S . Commerce Department, Japan's Nikkei, Dow Jones, The U.S . Commerce Department, Reuters Graphics Reuters, AstraZeneca, BASF, Exxon Mobil, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Vidya, United States, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Spain, France, Germany, The
Jesper Koll of Monex Group discusses BOJ's YCC, bond yields
  + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJapan's 2-year bond yield the 'real test' for the global financial system: Financial services firmJesper Koll of Monex Group says "the problem for the global financial system is not the [yield curve control], is not the 10-year bond in Japan."
Persons: Jesper Koll Organizations: Monex Locations: Japan
Reactions to Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision
  + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
July 28 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates on Friday but took steps to make its yield curve control policy more flexible, underscoring growing concerns over the rising side- effects of prolonged monetary easing. It also maintained guidance allowing the 10-year yield to move 0.5% around the 0% target, but said those would be "references" rather than "rigid limits". The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield remained at 0.5%, the BOJ's policy ceiling under YCC. "We maintain our view the BOJ will keep its ultra-easy monetary policy settings unchanged this year, and expect USD/JPY to remain solid at 140 by the end of this quarter." MOH SIONG SIM, CURRENCY STRATEGIST, BANK OF SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE"By the time the decision come in, we're not surprised given the overnight Nikkei report.
Persons: CAROL KONG, we're, It's, they're, MATT SIMPSON, Subhranshu Organizations: Bank of Japan, Japan's Nikkei, COMMONWEALTH BANK OF, BANK OF SINGAPORE, Nikkei, Thomson Locations: SYDNEY, SINGAPORE, BRISBANE
Kazuo Ueda, governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe Bank of Japan announced Friday "greater flexibility" in its monetary policy — surprising global financial markets. The central bank loosened its yield curve control — or YCC — in an unexpected move with wide-ranging ramifications. When asked if the central bank had shifted from dovish to neutral, he said: "That's not the case. MUFG said that Friday's "flexibility" tweak shows the central bank is not yet ready to end this policy measure.
Persons: Kazuo Ueda, Shigeto Nagai, CNBC's, , Duncan Wrigley, MUFG, Governor Ueda, Michael Metcalfe, Metcalfe Organizations: Bank of Japan, Bloomberg, Getty, of Japan, Nasdaq, Oxford Economics, disinflation, Capital Economics, U.S, U.S . Federal, Bank, Pantheon, Street Global Locations: Europe, Japan, U.S ., China, dovish
At the two-day meeting ending on Friday, the BOJ is expected to maintain its yield curve control (YCC) targets at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and 0% for the 10-year bond yield. With the BOJ set to keep short-term rates negative, a tweak to the yield cap or allowance band is unlikely to trigger a spike in borrowing costs that would severely hurt the economy. There is no consensus within the board on how soon the BOJ should dial back stimulus. Former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi expects the central bank to eventually modify YCC, but stand pat on Friday. "I don't think the BOJ sees an imminent need to act, as markets aren't attacking its yield cap this time."
Persons: Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Takahide Kiuchi, Leika Kihara, Takahiko Wada, Tetsushi, Takaya Yamaguchi, Yoshifumi, Kentaro Sugiyama, Sam Holmes Organizations: Bank of Japan's, Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, YCC
The Nikkei newspaper reported the central bank will maintain its 0.5% cap for the 10-year government bond yield, but discuss allowing long-term interest rates to rise above that level by a certain degree. Under yield curve control (YCC), the BOJ guides the 10-year bond yield around 0% and sets an allowance band of 0.5% above and below that target. At the two-day meeting ending on Friday, the BOJ is widely expected to maintain the 10-year yield target and a -0.1% target set for short-term interest rates. The BOJ's meeting comes after the Federal Reserve's decision on Wednesday to raise interest rates, a move that further widens the interest rate gap between the United States and Japan. That changed last year, when soaring commodity prices pushed inflation above the 2% target and gave investors reason to attack the yield cap.
Persons: Ueda, Kazuo Ueda, Shinichi Uchida's, Leika Kihara, Sam Holmes, Conor Humphries Organizations: Nikkei, Bank of Japan, Reuters, Federal, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, United States, Japan
SLOWLY, STEADILYBOJ sources say the central bank is leaning towards keeping its yield control policy unchanged as policymakers wait for data to affirm wages and inflation will keep rising. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield also retreated to 0.445% from as high as 0.485%. "We don't short the JGB market. In part, it's an expensive thing to do - as you know, the Bank of Japan owns 110% of the 10-year JGB market," he said. "Nobody's calling for them to hike aggressively, just bringing some function back to the JGB market, allowing themselves to step away because the data has given them an opportunity to do so.
Persons: Jimmy Lim, Lim, Kazuo Ueda, Nigel Foo, Haruhiko Kuroda, Jim Leaviss, Leaviss, Michael Michaelides, Ales Koutny, James Athey, Athey, Kevin Buckland, Ankur Banerjee, Summer Zhen, Alun John, Divya Chowdhury, Harry Robertson, Vidya Ranganathan, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Bank of Japan, Management, ING, Investors, G Investments, Vanguard, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Singapore, FSI, abrdn
Morning Bid: Over to you, Bank of Japan
  + stars: | 2023-07-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
NEW YORK, July 28 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets from Stephen Culp, financial markets columnist. Could this be a landmark day for the Bank of Japan? The news was "the biggest driver of today's performance," according to Michael Green, portfolio manager and chief investment strategist at Simplify Asset Management. Reuters GraphicsEarlier in the day, U.S. stocks were buoyed and fears of a global economic slowdown were abated by upbeat earnings reports and a raft of better-than-expected U.S. economic data. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
Persons: Stephen Culp, it's, Michael Green, Jerome Powell's, Marguerita Choy Organizations: YORK, Bank of, Bank of Japan, Nikkei, Dow Jones Industrial, Management, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, U.S . Commerce, Federal, Commerce Department, Tokyo CPI, PPI, Carolina, Thomson, Reuters Locations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Japan, Tokyo, Australia, Korea
The Australian dollar slid after benign inflation data suggested the Reserve Bank of Australia would forgo a rate hike next week. The euro slipped 0.16% to $1.1042, bringing it close to the previous session's low of $1.1036, a level last seen on July 12. In the latest data, U.S. consumer confidence increased to a two-year high in July amid a persistently tight labor market and receding inflation. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank sets policy on Thursday. The dollar added 0.12% to 141.15 yen on Wednesday, following a rebound from a multi-week low of 137.245 mid-month.
Persons: Jerome, Powell, Joseph Capurso, Sean Callow, Kevin Buckland, Muralikumar Organizations: Australian, Reserve Bank of Australia, U.S, Federal, U.S . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ECB, Bank of Japan, Westpac, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Beijing, China
TOKYO/WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Bank of Japan should start preparing for future monetary tightening by moving away from its yield control policy, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said on Tuesday. FILE PHOTO: A Japanese flag flutters on the Bank of Japan building in Tokyo, Japan, March 15, 2016. They have also said the BOJ was mindful of the cost of YCC such as market distortions caused by its heavy bond buying. Widening the allowance band around its 10-year yield target, a step it took last December, could be among options to mitigate the side-effects of YCC, analysts say. Growth in the world’s third-largest economy is expected to slow to 1.0% in 2024 as the effect of past stimulus measures dissipate, the IMF said.
Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Toru Hanai, ” Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Kazuo Ueda Organizations: Bank of Japan, Monetary Fund’s, REUTERS, Reuters Locations: TOKYO, WASHINGTON, Tokyo, Japan
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