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UK retail sales slide by most in over two years: CBI
  + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, Aug 24 (Reuters) - British retail sales fell in August at the fastest rate since March 2021 and most stores are expecting another tough month ahead, an industry survey showed on Thursday. The Confederation of British Industry's monthly balance of retail sales, which compares volumes with a year ago, fell to -44 in August from -25 in July. Expectations for the month ahead improved to -21 from -32, but were still deeply negative. The quarterly business situation balance - a gauge of sentiment among retailers - fell to -14 from +6 in May, the lowest reading this year. The CBI data echoed industry data earlier this week that showed sales growth at British supermarkets slowed in August, reflecting lower inflation as well as a hit to demand from unsettled, unseasonably wet weather.
Persons: Martin Sartorius, NIQ, Andy Bruce, David Milliken Organizations: British, CBI, Thomson
Economic data in Europe just went from bad to worse
  + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Silvia Amaro | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +1 min
An emloyee works on the assembling of a brake caliper for an electric vehicle in Dueren, western Germany. A reading above 50 marks an expansion in activity, while one below 50 marks a contraction. If pandemic months are excluded, the latest numbers point to the lowest reading since April 2013. In terms of the breakdown between services and manufacturing, the former dropped to a 30-month low at 48.3 and the manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 42.7 in July to 43.7 this month. "Considering the PMI figures in our GDP [growth] nowcast leads us to the conclusion that the euro zone will shrink by 0.2% in the third quarter," Rubia added.
Persons: Dow Jones, Cyrus de la, Rubia Organizations: Hamburg Commercial Bank, PMI Locations: Dueren, Germany, Hamburg
That’s the lowest reading since May 2020, when the country began gradually lifting stringent pandemic restrictions. “Any hope that the service sector might rescue the German economy has evaporated. The figures add to evidence that Germany’s economy is sputtering again after it emerged from a winter recession in the second quarter by the narrowest of margins. “The downward pressure on the economy of the eurozone in August stems mainly from the German service sector,” said De la Rubia. “Activity has started to shrink while prices have shot up again, even picking up pace,” De la Rubia said.
Persons: stoking, , Cyrus de la Rubia, , De la, , De la Rubia, ” Andrew Kenningham Organizations: London CNN —, Hamburg Commercial Bank, P Global, P, European Central Bank, ECB, Capital Economics Locations: London CNN — Germany, Hamburg, Germany, Europe,
Mortgage rates and home prices have spiked over the past couple of years, making homebuying more expensive than ever. High mortgage rates coupled with high home prices have made buying a house significantly more expensive than it's been in previous years. 5 advantages of buying a house when mortgage rates are highThere's no perfect time to buy a house. But mortgage rates are expected to drop throughout the next couple of years. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's latest forecast, mortgage rates could drop below 5% by the end of 2024.
Persons: Freddie Mac, they're, Sarah Alvarez, You'll, Melissa Cohn, they've, Cohn, Alvarez, it's Organizations: Service, Privacy, Finance, Gallup, Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban, William, Mortgage Locations: Wall, Silicon
There were 1.6 job openings for every unemployed person in June, little changed from May. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 9.610 million job openings. Reuters GraphicsThere were an additional 136,000 job openings in healthcare and social assistance, while vacancies increased by 62,000 in state and local government, excluding education. The job openings rate was unchanged at 5.8% in June. ISM manufacturing PMIIt has, however, not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing employment in the government's nonfarm payrolls count.
Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, Eugenio Aleman, Raymond James, Lucia Mutikani, Andrea Ricci, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Reuters, Federal, Labor, Survey, Labor Department, Employers, Treasury, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Economists, ISM, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, WASHINGTON, . U.S
It was the ninth straight month that the PMI stayed below the 50 threshold, which indicates contraction in manufacturing, the longest such stretch since the 2007-2009 Great Recession. The ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index increased to 47.3 in July. According to the ISM, the delivery performance of suppliers to manufacturing firms has been faster for 10 straight months. It has, however, not been a reliable predictor of manufacturing employment in the government's nonfarm payrolls count. Manufacturing employment likely rose by 5,000 jobs last month, according to a Reuters survey of economists.
Persons: Charles Mostoller, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: BMW, REUTERS, Reuters Connect WASHINGTON, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Reuters, ISM, Federal Reserve, Manufacturing, Fed, U.S . Labor Department, Thomson Locations: Greer , South Carolina, U.S
Summary Consumer confidence index increases to 117.0 in JulyLabor market differential rises to 37.2 from 32.5 in JuneHouse prices continue upward trend in MayWASHINGTON, July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence increased to a two-year high in July amid a persistently tight labor market and receding inflation, bolstering the economy's prospects in the near term. That supports economists' views that consumer spending was flattening out after rising at its fastest pace in two years in the first quarter. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index increased to 117 this month, the highest reading since July 2021, from 110.1 in June. TIGHT LABOR MARKETThe survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, increased to 37.2 this month from 32.8 in June, a sign labor market conditions remain tight despite job growth slowing. And while more households planned to buy houses, they could run into affordability challenges as tight supply pushes up prices.
Persons: Robert Frick, Dana Peterson, Lisa Sturtevant, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: Labor, Conference, Federal Reserve, Consumers, Navy Federal Credit Union, The, Reuters, University of, Conference Board's, Fed, Federal Housing Finance Agency, Bright MLS, Thomson Locations: WASHINGTON, Vienna , Virginia, U.S
The BoE said in May it expected June inflation would fall to 7.9%, moving further away from October's 41-year high of 11.1% but still way above its 2% target. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the core measure of price growth to hold at 7.1%. Despite June's drop, Britain's inflation rate remains the highest among the world's top seven rich economies. In Western Europe, only Iceland had a higher rate of inflation in June. Suren Thiru, Economics Director at ICAEW, an accountancy body, said July's inflation rate was likely to slow to below 7%.
Persons: Sterling, BoE, James Smith ,, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, Rishi Sunak, Jeremy Hunt, Hunt, William Schomberg, William James, Sarah Young, Catherine Evans Organizations: Reuters, Bank of, Bank of England, U.S ., Reuters Graphics, National Statistics, Labour Party, Sunak's Conservative Party of, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Manufacturers, Thomson Locations: Bank of England, May's, Western Europe, Iceland, Britain
The pan-European Stoxx 600 was up 0.3% at 8:45 a.m. in London, with tech stocks up 1%. LONDON — European stock markets were higher Thursday morning after a cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation reading and fall in U.K. gross domestic product. The U.K. economy contracted 0.1% in May, official figures showed, though this was less than the 0.3% month-on-month contraction forecast in a Reuters poll of economists. Asia-Pacific stocks were higher Thursday, while the S&P 500 closed Wednesday at its highest level since April 2022. U.S. producer price figures are due today.
Persons: industrials Organizations: LONDON, CPI, Federal Reserve Locations: London, U.K, U.S, Asia, Pacific, Europe, France
That could help lower overall inflation when the next CPI report is released on Aug. 10, with the details in Wednesday's report suggesting "downside risks" to any forecast of July's inflation rate. Indeed, at least one Fed official on Wednesday stuck to policymakers' prevailing hawkish mantra that inflation is still too high. While not specifically addressing the CPI report, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin told a Maryland business group that he still felt inflation had "been stubbornly persistent." 'FINAL INNINGS'But the latest CPI data could undercut arguments for yet another rate increase beyond the July meeting. Fed officials, blindsided by the persistence of inflation they initially thought would dissipate on its own, have been reluctant to bank on good news continuing.
Persons: Omair Sharif, Rick Rieder, Lael Brainard, Brainard, Thomas Barkin, Goldman Sachs, they've, Raphael Bostic, Bostic, Howard Schneider, Michael S, Ann Saphir, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: Federal Reserve, U.S . Labor Department, Reuters Graphics Reuters, BlackRock, Fed, White, Economic Council, Economic, of New, Richmond Fed, U.S, Cleveland Fed's Center, Inflation Research, Atlanta Fed, Derby, Thomson Locations: U.S, of New York, Maryland
The Japanese yen strengthened against most major currencies and last fetched 139.43 against the dollar, its highest in a month. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) was 0.61% higher, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) rose 0.54%. "However, if the core CPI decelerates as anticipated, investors may continue to keep the odds for September and November rate hikes low." China shares (.SSEC) eased 0.14%, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index (.HSI) rose 0.5% in early trading. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, fell 0.197% at 101.40, having slid as low as 101.37, its lowest in two months.
Persons: Australia's, Hong, Rodrigo Catril, Wells, Saira Malik, Brent, Ankur Banerjee Organizations: Federal, Japan's Nikkei, Reuters, Saxo Markets, National Australia Bank, Investor, JPMorgan, Citigroup, New Zealand, Thomson Locations: SINGAPORE, Asia, Pacific, Japan, China, Wall, dealmaking
Headline inflation eased to just 3% in June, marking the lowest inflation reading in 2 years. Core inflation, meanwhile, posted a year-per-year increase of 4.8% last month, below the expected 5%. Meanwhile, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 4.8% year-per-year, below economists' estimates of a 5% increase. The AI revolution is here and will spark a 15% rally in tech stocks, according to Wedbush's Dan Ives. A recession is looking less likely as inflation cools and the job market stays resilient, according to top economist Paul Krugman.
Persons: Neil Birrell, Ray Dalio, Wedbush's Dan Ives, Paul Krugman Organizations: Service, of Labor Statistics, Federal Locations: Wall, Silicon
Stocks rise, dollar retreats ahead of inflation data
  + stars: | 2023-07-11 | by ( Amanda Cooper | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +4 min
Markets are awaiting U.S. inflation data on Wednesday to see if price pressures are continuing to moderate, which could provide clues on the interest rate outlook. The MSCI All-World index (.MIWD00000PUS) rose 0.3%, lifted by gains in European shares, as the STOXX 600 (.STOXX) rose 0.6% and U.S. stock index futures , rose 0.2-0.4%, suggesting a modest rise at the opening bell. Economists polled by Reuters expect the consumer price index to have risen by 3.1% in June, after May's 4% increase. "There is a massive eye on tomorrow's inflation data - it comes to late in the day for the July meeting. Analysts expect earnings to have shrunk 6.4% in the second quarter year-on-year, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.
Persons: Toby Melville, Craig Erlam, Jim Reid, Wells, Julie Zhu, Jamie Freed, David Evans, Chizu Organizations: London Stock Exchange Group, City of, REUTERS, Federal, Reuters, U.S ., Treasury, Deutsche Bank, London Metal Exchange, JPMorgan, Citigroup, Refinitiv, Thomson Locations: City, City of London, Britain, China, U.S, Brent, Wall, Hong Kong
From Taylor Swift On her birthday in 2019, Swift shared this photo of herself as a child. From Taylor Swift A 13-year-old Swift sings the National Anthem before an NBA game in Philadelphia in 2002. Kevin Winter/ACMA/Getty Images Swift sings the National Anthem before Game 3 of the 2008 World Series in Philadelphia. John Mabangalo/Pool/Getty Images Swift performs during a sold-out show at New York's Madison Square Garden in 2009. Jeff Kravitz/Getty Images Swift performs on stage during an "Eras Tour" concert in Atlanta in April 2023.
Persons: CNN — Taylor Swift, ” Swift, , Swift, ” Taylor, shaming, ” Taylor Swift, Christopher Polk, Scott, Andrea Swift, Taylor Swift, Jesse D, Tim McGraw, Kevin Winter, John Mabangalo, Chad Batka, Bryan Bedder, Larry Busacca, Miley Cyrus, Lucas Till, Hannah Montana, Sam Emerson, Everett, Jonas, Frank Masi, Taylor, I'm, West, Beyonce, Jeff Kravitz, Lucy Nicholson, Christopher Morris, Josh Haner, Kevin Mazur, James Taylor, Charles Sykes, Matt Sayles, Mark J, Terrill, Invision, Jimmy Fallon, Douglas Gorenstein, Nicholas Harvey, Kanye West, Kim Kardashian, Laraine Newman, Bill Hader, Taran Killam, Kristen Wiig, Keenan Thompson, Fred Armisen, Kerry Washington, Betty White, Bradley Cooper, Dana Edelson, Andrea, Ethan Miller, Tim Boyles, Selena Gomez, Jordan Strauss, Mike Coppola, John Shearer, Andrew Lloyd Webber, Brandon Urie, Katy Perry, Republic Records Jack Antonoff, Aaron Dessner, Will Heath, Seth Wenig, Terence Rushin, didn’t, It’s, , Scooter Braun, Braun Organizations: CNN, Staples Center, NBA, of Country, Garden, New York Times, New York's Rockefeller Center, Walt Disney Co, Kanye, Madison, MTV, NBC, ACM, Academy of Country, Getty, New York's Metropolitan Museum of Art, Universal Pictures, Coachella, Republic Records, New York University, Machine Locations: Los Angeles, West Reading , Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Las Vegas, New York, Auburn Hills , Michigan, Newark , New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Frankfurt, Germany, London, Arlington , Texas, Tampa, Chicago, Atlanta
The data broadly tracked the government's official PMI released last week and showed a slowdown in service sector activity as demand for in-person services weakened. Business activity and new orders both expanded at notably slower rates last month than in May, the Caixin PMI showed. The rate of job creation in the services sector also edged up to a three-month high but remained mild overall. Caixin/S&P's composite PMI, which includes both manufacturing and services activity, fell to 52.5 from 55.6 in May, marking the sixth straight month of expansion. "Meanwhile, the services sector continued a post-COVID rebound, but the recovery was losing steam."
Persons: Wang Zhe, Nomura, Ting Lu, Ellen Zhang, Ryan Woo, Sam Holmes Organizations: P Global, PMI, Employment, Caixin Insight, Thomson Locations: BEIJING, COVID, China
China's services activity expanded at the slowest pace in five months in June, a private-sector survey showed on Wednesday, as weakening demand weighed on post-pandemic recovery momentum. The data broadly tracked the government's official PMI released last week and showed a slowdown in service sector activity as demand for in-person services weakened. Business activity and new orders both expanded at notably slower rates last month than in May, the Caixin PMI showed. The rate of job creation in the services sector also edged up to a three-month high but remained mild overall. "Meanwhile, the services sector continued a post-COVID rebound, but the recovery was losing steam."
Persons: Wang Zhe, Nomura, Ting Lu Organizations: P Global, PMI, Employment, Caixin Insight Locations: China, Covid
Gold listless as investors wait for Fed's June meeting minutes
  + stars: | 2023-07-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +2 min
Bars of gold are seen at Krastsvetmet, one of the world's largest producers of precious metals, in Moscow, January 31, 2023. Spot gold was little changed at $1,921.39 per ounce by 0241 GMT, while U.S. gold futures were flat at $1,929.10. High interest rates discourage investment in non-yielding gold. Markets will also watch for minutes of the June 13 to14 FOMC meeting being released on Wednesday. While gold prices could recover to $1,940 before a potential drop lower, "the rates background remains a significant drag," Frappell added.
Persons: Nicholas Frappell, Frappell, Masato Kanda Organizations: U.S, ABC Refinery, Investors, Reserve Bank of Locations: Moscow, U.S, U.S . Federal
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.0 from 46.9 in May, the lowest reading since May 2020. "The ISM saw the dollar pare its earlier gains," he said. The yield on interest rate-sensitive two-year Treasuries fell on the news, before later heading higher, as did the dollar. The yen fell to near eight-month lows against the dollar as intervention came into sight after Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warned on Friday against investors selling the yen too far as it weakened past the threshold of 145 to the dollar. The Japanese yen weakened 0.17% versus the greenback to 144.59 per dollar.
Persons: Marc Chandler, pare, Treasuries, Shunichi Suzuki, Joice Alves, Ankur Banerjee, David Evans, Conor Humprhies, Christina Fincher Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Bannockburn Global, Japan, Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, Thomson Locations: Bannockburn, New York, China, London, Singapore
In Asia, while factory activity expanded marginally in China, it contracted in Japan and South Korea as Asia's economic recovery struggled to maintain momentum. REUTERS/Siyi LiuChina's Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI eased to 50.5 in June from 50.9 in May, the private survey showed. The figure, combined with Friday's official survey that showed factory activity extending declines, adds to evidence the world's No. South Korea's PMI fell to 47.8 in June, extending its downturn to a record 12th consecutive month on weak demand in Asia and Europe. Factory activity also contracted in Taiwan, Vietnam and Malaysia, the PMI surveys showed.
Persons: Rory Fennessy, lockdowns, Toru Nishihama, Siyi Liu China's, Jonathan Cable, Sam Holmes, David Evans Organizations: PMI, European Central Bank, Oxford Economics, P, Dai, Research, REUTERS, P Global, Reuters, Jibun, of, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Japan, South Korea, China, TOKYO, Europe, Britain, Asia, United States, European, U.S, Dezhou, Shandong province, South, Taiwan, Vietnam, Malaysia, of Japan's
Shrinking activity left factories resorting to layoffs, the survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday. ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Chair Timothy Fiore described the practise as happening "to a greater extent than in prior months." At face value, the ISM survey is consistent with an economy that is in recession. The ISM survey showed that transportation equipment was the only one of the six biggest industries reporting growth last month. ISM manufacturing PMIWEAK DEMANDThe ISM survey's forward-looking new orders sub-index climbed to a still-subdued 45.6 from 42.6 in May amid increased caution from businesses and consumers alike.
Persons: Timothy Fiore, payrolls, Andrew Hunter, Jonathan Millar, José Torres, Lucia Mutikani, Chizu Nomiyama, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Institute for Supply Management, Manufacturing Business Survey, Federal Reserve, Capital Economics, PMI, Reuters, Treasury, Barclays, Manufacturers, Machinery, Commerce Department, Interactive Brokers, Thomson Locations: homebuilding WASHINGTON, U.S, New York, Miami
Stock Market Today: Dow Futures Hover, Tesla Jumps
  + stars: | 2023-07-03 | by ( ) www.wsj.com   time to read: +2 min
Stock futures edged higher to kick off the second half of 2023, with shares of growth companies—and particularly Tesla—leading premarket. Tesla’s stock jumped over 6% in premarket trading after the electric-vehicle maker posted a record quarter for sales . The stock market ended last week on solid footing after the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the personal-consumption expenditures price index, notched its lowest reading in two years. Stock futures mostly ticked up. Futures tied to the tech-focused Nasdaq-100 rose 0.3%, while those tied to the S&P 500 added 0.1%.
Persons: Tesla, Janet Yellen’s, Hong, Hang Seng, Alexander Novak, Bitcoin Organizations: Federal, Stock, Futures, Dow, Nikkei, Brent, Securities and Exchange Commission Locations: . U.S, U.S, China, Shanghai, Saudi Arabia
[1/2] A worker works on a production line at a factory of a ship equipments manufacturer, in Nantong, Jiangsu province, China March 2, 2020. China Daily via REUTERSBEIJING, June 29 (Reuters) - China's factory activity likely contracted for a third straight month in June, albeit at a marginally slower pace, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday, underscoring the need for further policy stimulus to counter weak demand at home and abroad. An index reading above 50 indicates expansion activity on a monthly basis and a reading below indicates contraction. The government has set a modest GDP growth target of about 5% for this year after badly missing its 2022 goal. The highest reading in the poll was 49.7, still short of breaking into expansion territory, while the lowest reading was 48.0.
Persons: Nomura, Li Qiang, Joe Cash, Madhumita Gokhale, Anant Chandak, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: REUTERS, PMI, Thomson Locations: Nantong, Jiangsu province, China, REUTERS BEIJING, Tianjin, Bengaluru
The Dow Jones Industrial Average , the S & P 500 and the Nasdaq lost more than 1% each for this holiday-shortened week. This coming week will feature some key inflation data to keep an eye on. On Tuesday, the May housing starts report was released, coming in much stronger than expected, at a 1.63 million seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), versus 1.39 million SAAR expected. Building permits were also above expectations at a1.49 million SAAR versus 1.43 million SAAR expected. As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Jim Cramer, he's, Jefferies, JEF, Mills, HB Fuller, Jim Cramer's, Jim, Spencer Platt Organizations: Federal, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Constellation Brands, Corp, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Micron Technology, Gross, Aid, McCormick &, Jim Cramer's Charitable, CNBC, New York Stock Exchange, Getty Locations: U.S, SAAR
Republicans, led by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, want to attach spending cuts to any agreement to raise the debt ceiling. Biden and the Democrats say they are willing to talk about spending cuts but only outside the debt ceiling discussions. Raising the debt ceiling would allow the government to pay for spending that has already occurred. That year, the debt ceiling was raised at the last minute but not before a summer of bickering sent the S & P 500 down 17% from late July to mid-August. The market this past week stumbled with the debt ceiling deadline looming and over concern about regional bank failures.
Wholesale prices rose less than expected in April, according to a Labor Department report Thursday that provides more hope that inflation is at least trending lower. The producer price index, a measure of prices for final demand goods and services, increased 0.2%, against the Dow Jones estimate for 0.3% and after declining 0.4% in March. On an annual basis, the headline PPI increased just 2.3%, down from 2.7% in March and the lowest reading since January 2021. Though the PPI rise was less than expected, the services index increased 0.3%, the biggest move since November 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics report stated. Gasoline prices rose 8.4%, pushing the goods index higher by 0.2%.
Persons: Dow Jones, Quincy Krosby Organizations: Labor Department, Dow, PPI, of Labor, LPL, Federal Reserve, CPI Locations: Washington
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