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How — and when — Ukraine's war with Russia could end
  + stars: | 2023-08-07 | by ( Holly Ellyatt | ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: +9 min
Wojciech Grzedzinski | Anadolu Agency | Getty ImagesThe war between Russia and Ukraine entered a new phase this summer when Kyiv launched its much-anticipated counteroffensive, and there were hopes Ukraine would regain the upper hand. "By the end of this year, both sides will think they still have more to gain by fighting. "Literally, they're [the Ukrainian forces] just running into the first line of defenses now, but that's a 30 kilometer deep belt of minefields and trenches and counter attacks. Meanwhile, any prospect of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine look slim despite efforts to bring both sides to the negotiating table. "One outcome is that this war is fought out because Ukraine gets the help to do it.
Persons: King Danylo, Wojciech Grzedzinski, It's, Richard Barrons, isn't, Barrons, Nick Reynolds, they've, you've, Jamie Shea, Shea, John Kirby Organizations: Mechanized Brigade, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Kyiv, Russian, Military, Joint Forces Command, CNBC, Ukrainian, Ukraine's Defense Ministry, Battalion, Territorial Defense, Ukrainian Air Force, NATO, Ukraine, U.S . National Security Locations: Ukrainian, Russia, Ukraine, Donetsk Oblast, Donetsk, Bakhmut, Berdyansk, Azov, London, Russian, Crimea, United States, Vilnius, Lithuania, China, India, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, U.S, Greece, Cyprus, North, South Korea
A Ukrainian maritime drone struck a Russian oil tanker on Saturday. It came a day after another naval drone attack on a Russian warship. The strike came after another drone strike on Friday badly damaged a Russian warship in the Russian port city of Novorossiysk. A Russian official also claimed Saturday that a Ukrainian drone was spotted and subsequently destroyed in the waters outside Sevastopol, the Crimean port city home to Russia's Black Sea Fleet. He noted that Ukraine was likely using a recently unveiled model of naval drone that Ukraine claims can strike targets 500 miles away.
Persons: Stephen Wright, Wright Organizations: Service, Fleet, BBC, TNT, Financial Times Locations: Ukrainian, Russian, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Kerch, Azov, Novorossiysk, Sevastopol, Crimean, Russia, Odesa, Crimea, Moscow
Russian forces have been routinely attacking Ukraine's southern cities and ports in recent weeks. Western intelligence says Russia has "evolved its risk appetite for conducting strikes near" NATO. But these attacks have also crept toward NATO territory, something Western officials have warned of since the 17-month-long war began. It added that the Iranian-made drones have landed as close as 650 feet from the Romania border, "suggesting that Russia has evolved its risk appetite for conducting strikes near NATO territory." Meanwhile, the bombardment near Romania comes as some NATO countries worry that Russian allies are encroaching on NATO territory to the northwest of Ukraine.
Persons: Nina Liashenko, Reni, Ukraine Bridget Brink, Wagner, John Kirby, We're Organizations: NATO, Service, Russian, Twitter, AS, REUTERS, White, National Security Locations: Romania, Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine's, Moscow, Ukraine, Romanian, Izmail, China, Israel, russia, Russian, Odesa, Belarus, Minsk, Poland, Lithuania
The attack was reportedly carried out by Kyiv and came after unrelenting Russian attacks on southern Ukraine with drones and missiles increasingly targeting the country's grain infrastructure. Russia's Ministry of Defense said it "foiled" the early Monday morning attack on Moscow, which it blamed it on Ukraine. Photographs of the scene show damage to the roof of an unidentified building, which is located just a few hundred meters from the Russian defense ministry's headquarters in the capital. A view of a building after two Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) attack in Moscow, Russia on July 24, 2023. Ukraine's defense ministry said on Monday that Russian drones attacked grain infrastructure along the Danube River, injuring several people and destroying food storage facilities.
Persons: Vladimir Putin's, Sefa Karacan, Mykhailo Podolyak, Putin, ALEXANDER NEMENOV, Biden, Vedant Patel, Patel, EKATERINA ANISIMOVA, Volodymyr Zelenskyy Organizations: Service, Russia's Ministry of Defense, TASS, Windows, CNN, Kyiv, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Presidential, Twitter, Police, Wagner, White, US State Department Locations: Moscow, Ukraine, Russia, Wall, Silicon, Kyiv, Russian, Ukrainian, Russia's, Ukraine isn't, AFP, Crimean, Odesa
Global Images Ukraine | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesFor Michael Clarke, a defense analyst and former director-general of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank, there's a risk that the first phase of the counteroffensive, designed to probe Russia's defenses, takes too long. Global Images Ukraine | Getty Images News | Getty ImagesKonrad Muzyka, a military intelligence specialist and president of Rochan Consulting, said "the weather has always been the factor" for Kyiv. But Kyiv says its forces are conducting counteroffensive actions in at least three areas and are operating against a backdrop of increased Russian offensive operations. Ukraine's defense ministry claims that its forces have liberated around 210 square kilometers (81 square miles) of occupied territory since June. Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty Images
Persons: , Michael Clarke, Clarke, Konrad Muzyka, Muzyka, Yuriy Sak, Sak, Anatolii Stepanov Organizations: 110th Brigade, Territorial Defense, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Military, Royal United Services Institute, CNBC, Rochan Consulting, Kyiv, Afp Locations: Novodarivka, Luhansk, Ukraine, Kharkiv, Kherson, Ukrainian, Bakhmut, Donetsk, Russian, Russia, Vuhledar, Yuriy, Siversk
Zelenskyy said nearly 70 missiles were fired at Odesa, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Zhytomyr and Kharkiv this week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday announced the dismissal of ambassador to the U.K. Vadym Prystaiko after he called comments Zelenskyy made about the U.K. defense minister unhealthy. In his daily address, Zelenskyy said nearly 70 missiles were fired at Odesa, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Zhytomyr and Kharkiv this week. And on Tuesday, Russia's Defense Ministry said it was carrying out a "mass retaliatory strike" for an attack on the Crimean bridge early Monday which it blamed on Ukraine. Tensions are also mounting in the Black Sea after Russia said it would consider all vessels sailing toward Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea as military cargo carriers.
Persons: Zelenskyy, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Vadym Prystaiko, John Kirby Organizations: Friday, Russian, White House, ., U.S, Initiative, Russia's Defense Ministry, Ukraine's Defense Ministry Locations: Odesa, Donetsk, Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Zhytomyr, Kharkiv, Ukraine, Russia
Vitaly GerasimovMaj. Gen. Vitaly Gerasimov became the second senior Russian commander reported to be killed after Ukrainian military intelligence claimed he was shot dead in Kharkiv. Andrey KolesnikovUkraine's military said in a tweet that they killed Russian Maj. Gen. Andrey Kolesnikov. Ivan GrishinColonel Ivan Grishin, commander of Russia's 49th Anti-Aircraft Missile Brigade, died in Ukraine, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Vyacheslav SavinovLieutenant Colonel Vyacheslav Savinov, who headed Russian artillery intelligence, was killed in Ukraine, a Russian artillery school confirmed. A damaged Russian military vehicle is seen after Russian Forces withdrawal as Russia-Ukraine war continues in Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine on September 14, 2022.
Persons: , Oleg Tsokov, Andrei Sukhovetsky Maj, Andrei Sukhovetsky, Sukhovetsky, Vitaly Gerasimov Maj, Vitaly Gerasimov, Alexander Nevsky, Andrey Kolesnikov Ukraine's, Andrey Kolesnikov, Oleg Mityaev Russia, Oleg Mityaev, Anton Gerashchenko, Andrei Mordvichev, Oleksiy Arestovych, Ramzan Kadyrov, Yakov Rezantsev, Illia Ponomarenko, Zelenskyy, Rezantsev, Dmitry Safronov Ukraine's, Dmitry Safronov, Denis Glebov, Glebov, Courage, Konstantin Zizevsky, Mikhail Vedernikov, Yuri Agarkov, Agarkov, Andrei Zakharov, Sergei Porokhnya, Gleb Garanich, Reuters Magomed, Magomed Tushaev, Putin, Vladimir Zhonga, Vladimir Zhoga, Sergei Sukharev, Sergei Krylov, Sukharev, Alexei, Alexei Sharov, Sharov, Sergey Bratchuk, Dmitry Dormidontov, Dmitry Pavlovich Dormidontov, Igor Zharov, Igor Igoshin, Zharov, Denis Kurilo, Kurilo, Anton Kuprin, Kuprin, Anton Gerashenko, Stringer, Denis Mezhuev, Vladimir Petrovich Frolov Maj, Gen, Vladimir Petrovich Frolov, Alexander Beglov, Fontanka, Miras, Miras Bashakov, Ivan Grishin, Vyacheslav Savinov, Savinov, Metin Aktas, Denis Kozlov, Kozlov, Andrei Simonov, Simonov, Roman Kutuzov Major, Roman Kutuzov, Alexander Sladkov, Tsargrad, Roman, Roman Berdnikov, Kutuzov, Volya, Kanamat, Botashev, Artem Nasbulin Maj, Artem Nasbulin, Serhiy Bratchuk, Tsokov, Михаил Ведерников Organizations: UK Defence Ministry, Service, British Defence Ministry, West, Storm, Russian, 7th Airborne Division, Combined Arms Army, Russian Federal Security Service, Arms Army, Interior Ministry, The New York Times, 8th General Army, Southern Military District of, Armed Forces, Twitter, Telegraph, Dmitry Safronov Ukraine's Ministry of Defense, Separate Marine Brigade, Russian Armed Forces, Ukraine's Defense Ministry, Airborne, 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment, Luhansk People's, 56th Air Assault Brigade, Guardian, 12th Engineer Brigade, Russian Armoured, Carrier, Reuters, The Daily Mail, Forces, Sparta Battalion, Donetsk People's, Daily Mail, 331st Guards Parachute, Ukraine, Ukraine's, Strategic Communication, Information Security, The Independent, 810th, Zhukov Brigade, Russian Marines, Evening, Local, 200th, Rifle Brigade, Black, Fleet, Russian Federation, Ukrainian, New York Times, 1st Guards, Banner, The Times, Kremlin, 8th Army, Aircraft Missile Brigade, Armed Forces of, Russian Missile Troops and Artillery, Russian Forces, Anadolu Agency, Getty, Separate Guards Engineers of Keningsbersko, Red Banner Brigade, Courage, Russian 2nd Army, Presidential, Russian Air Force, BBC, High Mobility Artillery, Southern Military District Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Russian, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Chornobayivka, Kherson Airport, London, Yakov Rezantsev Ukraine, Kyiv, Chornobaivka, Ukrainian, Chuhuiv, Donbas, Donetsk, Luhansk, Pskov Region, Andrei Zakharov Ukraine, Ufa, Nova Husarivka, Chechen, Hostomel, Russia's Chechnya, Donetsk People's Republic, Volnovakha, Kostroma, Tatarstan, Pechenga, Sevastopol, St, Petersburg, St . Petersburg, Armed Forces of Ukraine, Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, Izyum, Ukraine's Donbas, Severodonetsk, Kherson, Berdyansk
Leaflets in Russia's Siberia are calling on women to join the army, per independent media. Women would potentially serve in occupied Ukraine "in the same ranks as men," The Moscow Times reported. 39,000 women currently serve in Russia's army, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. That same month, Russia's defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, said that 39,000 women were currently serving in Russia's armed forces, including 5,000 officers.
Persons: Sergei Shoigu Organizations: Moscow Times, Service, Russian Defense Ministry, Omsk Civil Association Locations: Siberia, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Russia, Omsk, Russian, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson
A Russian missile strike in the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk left several dead and dozens injured. Kyiv said it caught a Russian sleeper agent who was monitoring the restaurant before the strike. This photograph shows a restaurant in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine, after a missile strike hit it on June 27, 2023. Photo by GENYA SAVILOV/AFP via Getty Images'The russian agent will undoubtedly stand trial in a Ukrainian court. Search and rescue efforts continue after a Russian missile attack hit Ria Restaurant, popular place of meeting in the city of Kramatorsk, Ukraine on June 27, 2023.
Persons: , GENYA SAVILOV, Wojciech Grzedzinski, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Kramatorsk, Tuesday's, Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Vladimir Putin's Organizations: Russian, GRU, Service, Security Service, Getty, Anadolu Agency, Russia's Locations: Ukrainian, Kramatorsk, Russian, Ukraine, Russia, Ukraine's Donetsk, Moscow, AFP, russia, Belarus
A Ukrainian soldier of the 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade fires at Russian positions at the front line near the town of Bakhmut in the Donetsk region, on June 17, 2023. Ukraine's counteroffensive has produced only limited gains so far, with eight settlements reclaimed in the last two weeks. Ukrainian officials are the first to admit that the country's armed forces face a "tough duel" with Russia in the weeks and months ahead. They're dug in so deep, that we already had a very good idea that this will be not an easy task," he added. Read more on the story here: 'Tough duel' ahead for Ukraine as Russia mounts fierce resistance to counteroffensive— Holly Ellyatt
Persons: It's, Yuriy Sak, Holly Ellyatt Organizations: Mechanized Brigade, CNBC Locations: Ukrainian, Bakhmut, Donetsk, Ukraine, Russia
Ukrainian officials are the first to admit that the country's armed forces face a "tough duel" with Russia in the weeks and months ahead. Nonetheless, there is mounting pressure on Ukraine to produce solid results — and analysts told CNBC that expectations could be far too high. Oleksiy Goncharenko, a Ukrainian lawmaker, told CNBC Tuesday that it was too early in the counteroffensive to make a judgment call. Urging patience, Ukraine defense advisor Yuriy Sak told CNBC: "We understand that everybody — and us more than anybody else — wants [the counteroffensive] to be progressing faster." Anders Fogh Rasmussen, chair of Rasmussen Global and former Secretary General of NATO, told CNBC Tuesday that "we are much too slow."
Persons: Anatolii Stepanov, Yuriy Sak, Hanna Maliar, Maliar, Oleksiy, , Sak, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, Putin, Fogh Rasmussen, Oleksiy Goncharenko, Oscar Del Pozo Organizations: AFP, Getty, CNBC, Ukrainian, Google, Defense, NATO, Rasmussen Global, Afp Locations: Blagodatne, Donetsk, Ukraine, Russia, Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, Kherson, Ukrainian, Kyiv, Spanish, San Gregorio, Zaragoza
Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty ImagesWhen Ukraine's counteroffensive started last week there was no fanfare or official announcement, but that wasn't entirely unexpected. "We are trying to find the weakest places in the Russian defense line. Nonetheless, Ukraine's deputy defense minister conceded Wednesday that the fighting was "extremely fierce" and that the counteroffensive had only had "partial success" so far. CNBC contacted Ukraine's defense ministry for further comment and is awaiting a response. "We will see the main punches of Ukrainian forces in the nearest future.
Persons: Anatolii Stepanov, Nick Reynolds, Andrius, Oleksandr Musiyenko, Musiyenko, Matthew Miller, RUSI's Reynolds, they've, it's Organizations: Afp, Getty, Kyiv, CNBC, Defense, Centre for Military, Legal Studies, Velyka Novosilka, Ukrainian, Anadolu Agency, NATO, . State Locations: Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine, Russian, Kharkiv, Kherson, London, Russia, Central, Eastern Europe, Kyiv, Velyka, Donetsk, Bakhmut, Crimea, Donbas, Moscow
Ukrainian servicemen take part in a military training exercise not far from front line in the Donetsk region on June 8, 2023. Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine's counteroffensive is proving tough for its forces but progress is being made, with Ukraine retaking a number of settlements in Donetsk. Ukraine's Defense Ministry said Monday that "seven settlements were liberated" in the last week of fighting in Donetsk. "Seven settlements were liberated: Lobkovo, Levadne, Novodarivka, Neskuchne, Storozheve , Makarivka, Blagodatne," she said. Defense analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted that Russian forces had reportedly launched a counterattack on June 12 in western Donetsk and that some Russian sources reported that Russian forces had recaptured Makarivka.
Persons: Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Zelenskyy, Hanna Maliar, Makarivka, Holly Ellyatt Organizations: Ukraine's Defense, Troops, Defense, Institute for, CNBC Locations: Donetsk, Ukraine
Ukraine's defense ministry tweeted that its Storm Shadow missiles have hit "100%" of their targets. However, Russia also claims it's intercepted two of the Storm Shadow missiles, per Reuters. "Storm Shadow long-range missiles have hit 100% of the targets identified by the General Staff," the ministry tweeted on Sunday, attributing the information to Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov. The Storm Shadow missiles have a range of over 155 miles, per MBDA, a European missiles developer and manufacturer. Ukraine's defense ministry did not immediately respond to Insider's request for comment sent outside regular business hours.
Ukraine claims Russia is planning to stage an accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. "Russians are preparing massive provocation and imitation of the accident at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in the nearest hours," the Ukrainian defense ministry's intelligence directorate said on social media on Friday. Fighting has continually raged around the power plant, and both Russia and Ukraine have blamed each other for dangerous incidents of shelling hitting the site. The UN International Atomic Energy Agency has previously warned about the risks of "a severe nuclear accident" at the plant due to ongoing fighting. It was reported last week that Russian military forces had been enhancing defensive positions around the power plant ahead of the expected counteroffensive.
If Kyiv's air forces get the jet as expected, they won't be able to fly them directly at Russian defenses. "And nobody's advocating for that," an air power expert told Insider. Regardless of which jet Ukraine gets, putting fourth-generation air power like the F-16 into a high-intensity conflict is "high risk," Birkey said. A pair of US Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcons US Air Force photo by Staff Sgt. In a recent opinion article for Air and Space Forces Magazine, Larry Stutzriem, a retired Air Force major general and former F-16 pilot, pointed to an Israeli Air Force operation against well-defended Syrian targets in Lebanon in 1982.
But a US official says the attack likely resulted in damage to a Patriot air-defense system, CNN reported. The barrage of missiles and drones launched by the Russians overnight included three ground-launched missiles, six Kinzhal missiles, and nine Kalibr missiles. The Patriot system firing in Greece in November 2017 as part of a NATO exercise. "Today, our beautiful Ukrainian sky becomes more secure because Patriot air defense systems have arrived in Ukraine," he said. Just days later, in early May, Ukraine said it used its Patriots to shoot down a Russian Kinzhal missile.
A lull in recent activity had been due to poor weather, officials said, as well as "exhaustion on both sides." Despite defense analysts assessing that Bakhmut has been gradually encircled by Russian forces to the north, east and south, Ukraine has refused to tactically withdraw from Bakhmut, instead vowing to reinforce and defend it. "We've been hearing this for months now," Sak told CNBC Monday, referring to claims that Bakhmut is under Russian control. Ukrainian soldier of the Aidar battalion fires artillery in the direction of Bakhmut in Donetsk oblast, 4 April 2023. Anadolu Agency | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
A video shared by Ukraine's military appears to show a drone striking a Russian Tor-M2 missile system. The Tor-M2 is a surface-to-air missile system designed to destroy airplanes, guided missiles, and drones. Russia's Tor-M2 is an all-weather short-range surface-to-air missile system designed to destroy airplanes, guided missiles, drones, and other aerial targets. In Tuesday's social media post, Ukraine's military claimed that it was the fourth Tor missile system to be destroyed in March. At least 104 Russian surface-to-air missile systems have been lost in Ukraine since the war began, according to Oryx, an open-source intelligence analysis platform.
A new video shows schoolchildren in Crimea training with rifles and completing hand-to-hand combat. The lessons are reportedly part of a training course that will come to other schools this year. The lessons appear to be part of a military training course that students across grade levels are participating in. In the video, originally shared by RIA Novosti Crimea, students first handle rifles in a competitive timed exercise. The new strategy marks a shift from Wagner's previous efforts to recruit Russian prisoners in exchange for reduced jail time.
Reports have emerged of Russian efforts to recruit female convicts to fight in Ukraine. Ukrainian officials said a carriage full of female prisoners was seen heading towards Donetsk. The report suggested that Russia was seeking to find new sources of fighters against a backdrop of heavy losses. The region borders occupied Ukraine by way of the Kerch bridge that connects Russia to Crimea. Prigozhin later announced that he was ending this policy, amid reports that inmates were put off by the mounting death toll.
Russia can't make new missiles fast enough, leading to less frequent attacks on Ukraine, UK intel says. The intelligence suggests Russia is struggling to "stockpile a critical mass" for larger strikes. US and UK officials have previously said Russia is using munitions faster than it can produce them. UK intelligence said Russia fired "an unusually large number" of Kh-47 Kinzhal ballistic missiles. A top UK envoy, meanwhile, said in late 2022 that Russia was working to obtain ballistic missiles from Iran to bolster its stockpile.
Ukraine's air defenses are unable to shoot down these weapons, a military official said. Ukraine's military said Russia fired 81 missiles and eight Iranian-made suicide drones at cities across the country, leaving multiple civilians dead and injured. Among the missiles that were fired were 28 Kh-101 and Kh-555 air-launched cruise missiles, 20 Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles, 13 S-300 surface-to-air missiles, eight Kh-31P and 6 –Kh-59 guided missiles, six Kh-47 Kinzhal missiles, and six Kh-22 missiles, according to Ukrainian state media. Three rockets launched against Ukraine from Russia's Belgorod region are seen at dawn in Kharkiv, Ukraine, Thursday, March 9, 2023. AP Photo/Mykola TysYurii Ihnat, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military, said Thursday's attack was "really large-scale and for the first time using such different types of missiles.
Ukrainian infantrymen with the 28th Brigade view damaged buildings while driving to a frontline position facing Russian troops on March 05, 2023 outside of Bakhmut, Ukraine. Russian forces appear to be tightening the noose around the city in Donetsk. "The fall of Bakhmut won't necessarily mean that the Russians have changed the tide of this fight," he added, noting that he would not predict when Bakhmut might fall to Russian forces. Ukrainian military vehicles drive along a road outside of the strategic city of Bakhmut on January 18, 2023 in Bakhmut, Ukraine. On Tuesday, Zelenskyy warned that Russian troops will have "open road" to key cities in eastern Ukraine if they seize Bakhmut.
Russia is preparing to draft college students to the front lines in its war in Ukraine. According to Ukrainian intel, universities have set up "notification offices" to inform students. "Notification offices" are already being set up to help draft the students and ship them to the frontlines, Ukrainian intelligence alleged. The intel also said that full-time students are being assigned to work at these notification offices "without their consent or even prior notification." The draft efforts will continue through the next few months, but will finish by the spring, Ukrainian intel said.
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