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When you hear commentators talking this week about the “yen carry trade” or the “great unwind,” they’re referring to a popular trading strategy that is, suddenly, blowing up in investors’ faces. The carry trade, explainedPut simply: A carry trade is when you borrow money in a place where interest rates are low and use it to invest elsewhere in assets that generate some kind of return. “That is bonkers.”The yen carry trade proved especially popular in the last four years, because Japan was the only major economy in the world offering essentially free money. The carry trade relies on borrowing, which means it’s a leveraged position. “The carry trade unwind… is somewhere between 50%-60% complete.”In other words: Buckle up, and don’t panic.
Persons: CNN Business ’, , John Authers, , it’s, John Sedunov, Kit Juckes, ” Sedunov, Arindam Sandilya, JPMorgan Chase, Buckle Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Wall, ” Bloomberg, Treasury, Villanova School of Business, Bank of Japan, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale, JPMorgan, Bloomberg Locations: New York, Japan, Europe
Traders are increasingly pinning their hopes on an emergency Fed rate cut. At one point on Monday they were assigning a 60% chance to a rate cut in the next week, according to Bloomberg data. Go to newsletter preferences Thanks for signing up! AdvertisementWall Street has been so suddenly gripped by fears of recession that talks of an emergency rate cut are gathering steam. At one point on Monday, the swap market was pricing in a 60% chance of an emergency 25-basis-point rate cut within the next week, according to Bloomberg.
Persons: Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, Treasury, Business
Investors are increasingly hopeful that will push Federal Reserve officials to come to their rescue with an emergency rate cut. But if something comes up in between those meetings that changes their views on the ideal level for rates, officials can gather for an unscheduled “emergency” meeting. By doing two large emergency cuts in succession, Fed officials didn’t have to weigh whether their actions would unnecessarily cause Americans to panic. Before those cuts, the last time the Fed was promoted to do an emergency rate cut was in the thick of the Great Recession shortly after Lehman Brothers collapsed in the fall of 2008. But he said he was “reluctantly” comfortable with an emergency cut since other central banks were doing it.
Persons: Austan Goolsbee, there’s, Lehman Brothers, ” Charles Plosser, , , That’s, Janet Yellen, ” Yellen, Plosser Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, Chicago Fed, New York Times, Philadelphia Fed, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Bank of England, San, Committee, Fed, Treasury Locations: New York
The unwind of the global yen "carry trade" is a force battering stocks. AdvertisementStocks plunged on Monday, and market pros say a lot of it has to do with the global unwind of the yen "carry trade." The carry trade refers to investors borrowing money at near-zero interest rates in Japan, and then redeploying that cash into higher-yielding assets around the world, such as stocks and bonds. "The selloff here is to a large extent attributable to the unwind of the so-called carry trade," Ed Yardeni told Yahoo Finance on Monday. AdvertisementThe unwind in the yen carry trade will go down as the biggest ever, according to a Monday note from Societe Generale.
Persons: , Stocks, Ed Yardeni, that's, Yardeni, That's, Kit Juckes, Warren Buffett's, Juckes, It's Organizations: Service, Yahoo Finance, Bank of Japan, Federal, Bank of, Federal Reserve, Societe Generale Locations: Japan, Bank of Japan
Investors are de-risking their portfolios amid recession fears, driving a stock-market sell-off. AdvertisementThe stock market's recession playbook is in full swing as suddenly panicked investors look to aggressively de-risk their portfolios amid fears of a downturn. Investors are questioning whether the Federal Reserve waited too long to cut interest rates and whether it's too late to fend off recession. AdvertisementDetailed below are four outperforming areas of the market that make it clear investors are employing the recession playbook:1. "Next's year's pricing makes sense if the US economy falls into recession and/or inflation tumbles below the Fed's 2% target," analysts said of the market's rate-cut expectations.
Persons: , it's, they've, David Sekera, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Ned Davis Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Nasdaq, Treasury, Bloomberg, Morningstar, Global, ETF, Rosenberg Research, Ned Davis Research
US stocks fell after a weak July jobs report raised concerns of a slowing economy. The US added 114,000 jobs in July, below estimates of 175,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.3%. Intel and Amazon's weak earnings reports also contributed to Friday's stock market decline. The unemployment rate also unexpectedly rose to 4.3% from 4.1%, its highest level since October 2021. The 10-Year US Treasury yield plunged nearly 20 basis points to a 2024 low of 3.80% immediately after the jobs report was released.
Persons: , Stephen Brown Organizations: Intel, Service, Treasury, Capital Economics, Federal, CME, Amazon Locations: payrolls
US stocks plunged Friday after a weak July jobs report sparked investor panic. The Nasdaq closed in correction territory, and the VIX soared as much as 60% to hit its highest since March 2023. AdvertisementUS stocks plunged on Friday, with the S&P 500 extending its two-day sell-off to more than 3%, as a weak July jobs report sparked panic among investors. Meanwhile, the CBOE Volatility Index, better known as the VIX, soared as much as 60% to 29.66, its highest level since March 2023. AdvertisementThe damage was exacerbated after the July jobs report showed an unexpected increase in the unemployment rate and payroll figures badly missed estimates.
Persons: , Tom Lee Organizations: Nasdaq, Service, Treasury, Amazon, Intel, Federal, CME, Fed, UBS Global Wealth Management Locations: Americas, Here's
Weak economic data suggests the Fed will cut interest rates by more than expected through year-end, ING says. The firm cites rising jobless claims last week and a declining ISM manufacturing index as warning signals. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThe US economy is flashing signals of an imminent slowdown, and it's going to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more than expected this year. That's according to a Thursday note from economist James Knightley at ING Economics, who said recent data is firing off warning signs for the economy.
Persons: , James Knightley Organizations: ING, Treasury, Service, Federal Reserve, ING Economics, Business
Wall Street careers are notoriously grueling and littered with politicking and jockeying to climb the ranks. AdvertisementNow, these six partners are looking back on their own rise, offering words of wisdom from their own Wall Street origin stories. At Goldman Sachs, the core of who we are in investment banking is M&A. Gene Sykes, cochairman of global M&A and global TMT:Gene Sykes Courtesy of Goldman SachsThe market for M&A advice has evolved over time. Are you a Goldman Sachs or Wall Street insider?
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Alison Mass, Stephan Feldgoise, Dan Dees, Hank Paulson, Tim Ingrassia, Alison, Goldman, Peter Weinberg, Gene Sykes, It's, Mark Sorrell, John Thornton, John Waldron, Karen Cook, Yoel Zaoui, Gregg Lemkau, it's, Jennifer Kopylov, Reed Alexander Organizations: Service, Wall, Partners, Business, US Treasury, Street, Goldman Locations: New York City, London, New York, Europe, American
Cash has poured into money market funds since the Federal Reserve began its rate hiking cycle. Short-term debt has been a popular investment over the past few years, and money market funds are a top example. For perspective, there was roughly $4 trillion in total money market funds as of the fourth quarter of 2019, according to the St. Louis Fed . Money market funds hold very short-term debt, and many currently offer a yield above 5%. "Historically, you don't tend to see money market inflows stop or convert to outflows until you get below say 3% on those rates.
Persons: Cash, Louis Fed, Sam Huszczo, Huszczo, Todd Sohn, Ken Brodkowitz, weren't, Brodkowitz, Strategas, Sohn, " Sohn, Callie Cox, Cox Organizations: Federal Reserve, Investment Company Institute, SGH Wealth Management, Federal, Bond, SEC, Gries Financial Partners, Fidelity, Income, Morningstar, US Treasury, Ritholtz Wealth Management, Ritholtz Locations: Detroit , Michigan, BlackRock
Read previewRussia is stepping up sanctions-evading measures to keep its international trade flowing. Russian central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina said the first transactions are expected by the end of this year, per Reuters. An existing ban on crypto payments in Russia remains, but Moscow's greenlighting crypto for international trade marks a significant shift. Russia could be eying a digital-currency-based settlement systemIt isn't clear how Russia's crypto and digital currency regimes will shape up. Even China, which has one of the world's most advanced digital currencies, relies on a "two-tier" system involving banks as wallet-holding agents.
Persons: , Elvira Nabiullina, Nabiullina, Vladimir Putin, Moscow hasn't, Christopher Granville, Granville Organizations: Service, Russia's, Duma —, Reuters, Business, Bloomberg, US Treasury, GlobalData, Lombard, Russia Locations: Russian, Russia, Ukraine, cryptocurrencies, Hong Kong, Moscow, China, UAE, Turkey, Austria, India
Certain areas of the stock market that benefit from lower rates could see a boost. AdvertisementInstead, plug some money into longer-duration bonds to lock in higher returns while they're still around, Milan said. In addition to tying down solid returns, longer-duration bonds could also appreciate when rates fall, he said. AdvertisementLook at rate-sensitive areas of the stock marketCertain areas of the stock market should also benefit from Fed rate cuts. But investors should keep their eye on the labor market the more the Fed cuts rates, Young Thomas said.
Persons: , Daniel Milan, they're, Ed Mahaffy, Mahaffy, Robert Phipps, Bernstein, Liz Young Thomas, Shmuel Shayowitz, Kristy Kim, Young Thomas Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Cornerstone Financial Services, Treasury, ClientFirst Wealth Management, Corporate, Per Stirling Capital Management, Bloomberg, Bond, Index, Fed, Vanguard, ®, Schwab, Fidelity Locations: Michigan, Milan, TreasuryDirect, TomoCredit
Trade between Russia and China is getting ever more difficult, with some payments between partners taking up to half a year, the Kommersant business daily reported on Monday. AdvertisementThe troubles started in December when the US authorized secondary sanctions targeting financial institutions that help Russia skirt sanctions. This prompted global banks from China to the UAE, Turkey, and Austria to reduce transactions with Russia to avoid getting in the crosshairs. Related storiesTo force Russia to halt its war, West blocked some Russian banks from the widely used SWIFT messaging system for payments early in the conflict. The continued business activity between the two countries sent trade between Russia and China to a record $240 billion last year.
Persons: , China's, Moscow's, Andrei Kostin, Russia's Organizations: Kommersant, Service, Business, Bloomberg, US Treasury, Russia, VTB Bank Locations: Russia, China, UAE, Turkey, Austria, Moscow, Ukraine, Beijing, Russian, Hong Kong
Three famed "Big Short" investors say gold remains a top long-term bet. Danny Moses, Porter Collins, and Vincent Daniel went on CNBC to explain why they're bullish. They cite rising debt levels, which they say could result in a "huge debasement" of the dollar. AdvertisementInvestors should be scooping up more gold for the long haul, according to three investors of "Big Short" fame. Collins and Daniel — the co-founders of Seawolf Capital — said they remained long on gold, gold miners, and precious metals like silver in their annual letter to shareholders.
Persons: Danny Moses, Porter Collins, Vincent Daniel, , Vincent Daniel —, Collins, Daniel, Daniel —, Moses, Gold, we've Organizations: CNBC, Service, Treasury, stoke, Seawolf, Moses Ventures Locations: US
The stock market rally is likely to continue, says BofA technical analyst Stephen Suttmeier. Suttmeier highlighted four positive signals that suggest a healthy bull market in a note on Tuesday. AdvertisementAs the stock market hits a series of record highs in 2024, there are positive signals suggesting the rally can keep going. That money could serve as fuel for a continued stock market rally, especially if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, making the current 5% cash yield less attractive. AdvertisementThe financial conditions index last sparked a major negative divergence towards the end of 2021, when the S&P 500 was rising even as the financial conditions index was declining.
Persons: Stephen Suttmeier, Suttmeier, Organizations: Service, Bank of America, BAA, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Fed, Chicago Fed
Read previewOn Wednesday, a key Senate panel approved a bill that would ban lawmakers from trading stocks. The Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee approved the legislation — known as the Ending Trading and Holdings in Congressional Stocks (ETHICS) Act — by an 8-4 vote. AdvertisementPolling has shown for years that the idea of banning lawmakers from trading stocks in broadly popular among members of both parties. This is the most significant progress on a stock trading ban in yearsThe last time either chamber got close to passing a stock trading ban was in September 2022, when House Democrats proposed a sweeping bill that included a major loophole and had little time to be vetted by members. Many saw the effort as a sham designed to appease those who had been pushing for a stock trading ban.
Persons: , Republican Sens, Rand Paul of Kentucky, Ron Johnson of, Mitt Romney, James Lankford, Democratic Sen, Jeff Merkley, they've, There's, Merkley, Jon Ossoff, Josh Hawley, Missouri —, Gary Peters of, Wednesday's, Chuck Schumer Organizations: Service, Senate Homeland Security, Government, Committee, Holdings, Congressional, Republican, Business, Democratic, Treasury, House Democrats, Gary Peters of Michigan Locations: Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Utah, Oklahoma, Oregon, Georgia, Missouri
Joe Biden's withdrawal from the 2024 presidential race is causing market uncertainty. Analysts now expect more market volatility after Biden pulled out of the race. AdvertisementUS President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential election is throwing fresh uncertainty into the markets for a second straight week. Investors were already trying to position themselves for the so-called "Trump trade" following the failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump on July 13. Markets at large were relatively calm following Biden's withdrawal after the Trump trade gripped sentiment last week.
Persons: Joe Biden's, Trump, Biden, , Donald Trump, Mark Haefele, Jim Reid, Kyle Rodda, Harris, Chris Weston, Pepperstone, Kamala Harris, Biden's, Haefele Organizations: Service, Trump, Republican, UBS Global Wealth Management's, Nasdaq, Treasury, Deutsche Bank, Democrats, Democratic Party, Democratic, UBS
Global markets rise after Biden exit
  + stars: | 2024-07-22 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +3 min
New York CNN —Global markets made solid gains after President Joe Biden dropped out of the 2024 presidential election Sunday and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. European markets were higher, and Asian markets closed mostly lower. But “the fact that Biden endorsed Kamala Harris reduces uncertainty,” said Jay Hatfield, CEO at Infrastructure Capital Advisors. “Markets are increasingly focused on the US presidential election in November,” wrote Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen in a research note on Monday. Stocks tumbled toward the end of last week as a turbulent election cycle and a global tech outage rocked technology stocks in particular.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Donald Trump, unwind, Harris, Biden, , Jay Hatfield, Trump, ” Hatfield, Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen, Lyndon Johnson, Stocks Organizations: New, New York CNN — Global, Democratic, Dow, Nasdaq, Trump, Infrastructure Capital Advisors, Deutsche Bank, , Deutsche Locations: New York
The firm is looking at specific levels for the 10-year Treasury yield and manufacturing PMI. Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. New research from Bank of America outlined two specific criteria that could serve as signals the rally will continue. AdvertisementMeanwhile, manufacturing PMI fell to 48.5 in June. "The Manufacturing economy is in the second longest downturn in history with 21 months without two straight months of 50+ PMI.
Persons: , SPW, Russell, Tom Lee Organizations: of America, PMI, Service, Bank of America, Treasury, 6.3ppt, Bank of America Global Research, Federal Reserve, Barclays Locations: outperformance
Benefits of passive income strategiesWhat makes passive income strategies so appealing are the benefits, such as:Requires less ongoing effort: Compared to working full-time, passive income requires significantly less time and effort. Drawbacks of passive income strategiesWhile the concept of earning passive income sounds attractive, it's crucial that you understand all the risks involved and that you manage your expectations accordingly. Some of the major drawbacks of passive income strategies are:Unpredictability: The success of passive income strategies can be unpredictable and are generally out of your hands. Passive income — Frequently asked questions (FAQs)How much money do I need to start generating passive income? While some passive income streams require consistent minimal effort after the initial setup, other passive income strategies may require more extensive hands-on maintenance or monitoring.
Persons: Tiffany Grant, there's, wouldn't, Bonds, Melissa Jean, Baptiste, Grant, You'll, you'll Organizations: Coca, US Treasury, Federal Reserve, IRS
New York CNN —Stocks are soaring this year, but that could soon change as election chaos takes the market on a rollercoaster ride. But this has been a destabilizing week for US stocks and the market trajectory could be shifting. The Dow was down more than 430 points, or 1%, in the morning trading session on Friday as the tech outage continued to rattle investors. Former President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said in an interview with Bloomberg that Taiwan should pay for its own defense. The bright sideInvestors have been largely resilient this year and some financial bigwigs say the election won’t change that.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Dow, , , , Jim Reid, Biden, they’re, Scott Wren, Wells, Jerome Powell, Liz Young Thomas, Russell, Young Thomas, ” Trump, CrowdStrike, JPMorgan Chase, Jeremy Barnum, isn’t Organizations: New, New York CNN, Investors, Big Tech, Nasdaq, Deutsche Bank, Democratic, , Treasury, Fed, Tech, Bloomberg, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, JPMorgan Locations: New York, Iran, Israel, Wells Fargo, , China, Taiwan
Read previewBarely a week after the failed assassination of former US President Donald Trump, investors are already moving on from the "Trump trade." The "Trump trade" refers to investor strategies that reflect the market consequences of a second Trump presidency. Schumacher said the "Trump trade" has run its course and is "about done for now." Focus on Fed interest rate decisionTo be sure, a second Trump presidency — including his administration's trade and tariff policies — would have important implications for the macroeconomy and markets, say most analysts. On Wednesday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the central bank would cut "in the not-too-distant future."
Persons: , Donald Trump, Trump, Michael Schumacher, Schumacher, Vishnu Varathan, Mizuho Bank's, Jerome Powell, Christopher Waller Organizations: Service, Trump, Business, Federal Reserve, US Treasury, Bloomberg, Wells, Wells Fargo Securities, Fed, Swiss, UBS Locations: Wells Fargo, Asia, Japan
Tragedy strikes and traders (or trading algorithms) sniff out a way to make money off of it. Stocks also went on a tear as Covid-19 killed millions and gutted economies across the globe. “The market’s up today, but the market’s up every day,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, tells me. Whether or not the political bump lasts, some traders did seize on the moment to double down on so-called Trump trades. In short, when the yield curve gets steeper, that’s a sign bond traders are nervous.
Persons: CNN Business ’, Stocks, it’s, Steve Sosnick, Sosnick, , , Trump, Reagan, Coinbase, Elon Musk, Sturm Ruger, he’s, Joe Biden —, ” Sosnick, they’re Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN — Financial, Dow, Interactive, Trump, White, Macquarie, Trump Media, Smith, Wesson, Democratic, Treasury Locations: New York
CNN —An Israeli airstrike near the Lebanese-Syrian border has killed a prominent Syrian businessman who was sanctioned by the United States, local media reported Monday. Mohammad Baraa Qatarji died when the strike hit the car he was traveling in on the al-Saboura highway near Damascus, according to Syrian state-aligned newspaper al-Watan. According to the US Treasury website, Qatarji had a strong working relationship with officials within the Syrian government, including in the ministries of oil and trade. Qatarji and his two brothers Zahed and Hussam – who are also sanctioned by OFAC – established a militia that fought alongside the Syrian regime in Aleppo in 2016. CNN has reached out to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) about the strike but has not yet received a response.
Persons: Mohammad Baraa Qatarji, Qatarji, OFAC, Qatirji, Hussam –, OFAC –, Muhammad Sa’id al Organizations: CNN, US Treasury, Foreign Assets, ISIS, Treasury, Law, Qatirji Company, Israel Defense Forces Locations: Lebanese, Syrian, United States, Saboura, Damascus, Syria, Aleppo, Lebanon
The failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump is likely to be on investors' minds this week. Bitcoin surged on haven trade following the event, while the dollar also rose as the "Trump trade" returned. AdvertisementThe failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump is expected to dominate markets this week as investors focus on the so-called "Trump trade." Even before the weekend events, economists and analysts were already debating what a Trump presidency would mean for the markets. "Judging by historical parallels, this event will galvanize the Trump vote, meaning the markets will gradually price in the so-called 'Trump trade,'" wrote Rodda.
Persons: Donald Trump, Bitcoin, Trump, , Kyle Rodda, TMTG, Hong, Rong Organizations: Trump, Service, Investors Locations: United States, Tokyo, Paris, Frankfurt
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