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Russia's heavy bomber aircraft haven't fired cruise missiles at Ukraine in more than a month, UK intel said. The UK MOD said that's "one of the longest gaps in such strikes since the conflict began." AdvertisementAdvertisementRussia's fleet of heavy bomber aircraft have not fired cruise missiles at Ukraine in more than a month, according to UK intelligence. AdvertisementAdvertisementUsing those bombers to launch cruise missiles had been Russia's "primary method" for precision strikes, even though it does have other ways of hitting Ukraine, the UK MOD said. Cruise missiles can also be fired from the ground or the sea as well as from planes, but Russia favors strikes launched from aircraft.
Persons: , Volodymyr Zelenskyy Organizations: intel, MOD, Service, Ministry of Defence, Aviation Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Ukrainian
North Korea has shipped Russia more than 1,000 containers of munitions in recent weeks, intel suggests. North Korea is now on track to become one of Russia's biggest foreign arms suppliers alongside Iran and Belarus, the UK's defense ministry said. The White House is also closely monitoring the situation and said a military alliance between Russia and North Korea could destabilize the region. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe UK's defense ministry said Thursday that North Korea has sent a huge amount of munitions to Russia recently and is on track to become one of Russia's biggest foreign arms suppliers. North Korea has sent Russia more than 1,000 containers of munitions over the last several weeks, the UK's Ministry of Defence said in an intelligence dispatch on X.
Persons: , John Kirby, Kirby Organizations: intel, Service, UK's Ministry of Defence, White, Security, Russian, Moscow, Ukraine Locations: Korea, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Belarus, DPRK, North
Russia launched its first major offensive in months on the village of Avdiivka — but it's not going well. Western observers have remarked on large Russian losses around Avdiivka, where Russia has failed to make significant advances despite committing large numbers of troops and vehicles. AdvertisementAdvertisementBailey pointed to Russia's efforts in Vuhledar, another town nearby, where Russian attacks ended in defeat and huge tank losses earlier this year. Russia launched its assault on Avdiivka, in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk region, on October 10, Ukraine said. Ukrainian units have shared footage of intense fighting and destroyed Russian vehicles.
Persons: it's, Russia hasn't, , Riley Bailey, Avdiivka, Bailey, Vladimir Putin, ISW Organizations: Service, Institute for, Mechanized Brigade, Russia, Atlantic Council Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Ukrainian, Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Avdiivka ., Ukraine's, Donetsk
The UK MOD said Russia tried to create elite "storm" units in Ukraine, but they were largely ineffective. The UK update said the debacle showed how Russia was struggling to field effective fighters. AdvertisementAdvertisementRussia tried to build up its "Storm Z" units as an elite fighting force but instead pivoted to stuffing them with convicts and other low-quality fighters, UK intelligence said. Fighters in the units and people with knowledge of them told Reuters this month that soldiers in storm units were seen as disposable. "Storm fighters, they're just meat," he told Reuters, adding that he disobeyed the instruction not to help them.
Persons: , Russia's Organizations: MOD, Service, UK Ministry of Defence, Reuters, Institute for, Fighters Locations: Russia, Ukraine
Russia has suffered up to to 480,000 casualties in the war against Ukraine, per UK intelligence. In a desperate bid to replenish its manpower, Moscow is sending injured soldiers back into battle. AdvertisementAdvertisementRussia has likely suffered up to 480,000 soldiers killed or wounded in the war against Ukraine, the UK Ministry of Defence reported in an intelligence update. Recent fighting in Avdiivka, a city in southeastern Ukraine, has contributed to a 90% increase in Russian soldiers killed or wounded. The move to reinstate injured soldiers amid manpower and equipment shortages had one soldier's mother describe their treatment "like cows at a slaughterhouse."
Persons: , Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, Putin, Alia Shoaib, Ruslana Danylkina Organizations: Ukraine, Service, UK Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Defence, Wagner Group, New York Times, AP, The New York Times, BBC, Armed Forces Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Ukrainian, Kherson, Odesa, Donetsk
Russia has been carrying out offensive operations in the area of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. The assaults have contributed to a 90% increase in Russian casualties, the UK MoD said. download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . Russia has been carrying out offensive operations in the area of Avdiivka, a small city just to the north of Donetsk. AdvertisementAdvertisementIt added that it was likely Russian forces had taken around 150,000-190,000 "permanent casualties" — those killed and permanently wounded — since Putin's full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
Persons: , Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin Organizations: MoD, Service, UK Ministry of Defence, for, Wagner Group Locations: Russia, Avdiivka, Ukraine, Donetsk, Russian, Bakhmut
Putin recently said Russia will begin patrolling the Black Sea using jets carrying Kinzhal missiles. Russia has much hyped the Kinzhal missile, but experts have said its capabilities are exaggerated. Ukraine said it shot down a Kinzhal missile with a US-made Patriot interceptor in May. Days later, it claimed it shot down an unprecedented six Russian Kinzhal missiles over Kyiv. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe destruction of the Kinzhal missiles was seen as a psychological blow for Russia.
Persons: Putin, , Vladimir Putin, Kinzhal, Sergey Shoigu, Ryan Pickrell Organizations: MoD, Service, UK's Ministry of Defense, UK Ministry of Defense, Russian Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Moscow, Russian
Russia said the Kerch Bridge was fully repaired after a Ukrainian attack in July. But the bridge is "now almost certainly a significant security burden" for Russia, the UK MOD said. "Trucks and fuel supplies continue to be moved by ferry," the UK MOD said. The attacks were seen as a symbolic blow to Russia, with the bridge representing Russian control over Crimea. But it is now "almost certainly a significant security burden requiring multi-domain protection, including the use of air defence systems and crews who would otherwise be deployed elsewhere," it added.
Persons: , Ukraine's, That's, Marat Khusnullin, STRINGER, Vladimir Putin Organizations: MOD, Service, UK Ministry of Defence, Russian, Getty Locations: Russia, Kerch, Crimea, Ukraine, Southern Ukraine, Russian
Ukraine said it destroyed three Russian Su-25 aircraft in a single week. The jets fly low to give air support, making them vulnerable to antiaircraft attacks. AdvertisementAdvertisementUkraine said it shot down three of Russia's Su-25 fighter jets in a single week. AdvertisementAdvertisementTarnavskyi said that Ukraine, over the past week, had destroyed multiple Russian ammunition depots, dozens of tanks, antitank missiles, and antiaircraft missiles, and killed thousands of Russian soldiers in the region. This included 797 Russian soldiers between Friday night and Saturday night, he said.
Persons: , Russia's Su, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, Ukraine's, Tarnavskyi Organizations: Service, Strategic Group, Military Today Locations: Ukraine, Russian, Ukrainian, Donetsk, Ukraine's, Russia, Avdiivka
Russian forces launched their "most significant" assault since at least January 2023, UK intel said. The village is a "major obstacle," with Russia suffering heavy losses there, the UK MOD said. The update described the offensive as likely "the most significant offensive operation undertaken by Russia since at least January 2023." Last week, Russia launched a major attack on the village of Adviivka, which Ukraine retook earlier this year, but reports since then have pointed to significant Russian losses . AdvertisementAdvertisement"Entrenched Ukrainian forces have so far likely held back the Russian advance, with the latter sustaining heavy equipment and personnel losses," the MOD said on Tuesday.
Persons: , Vladimir Putin, Putin, Vitaliy Barabash, Volodymyr Zelenskyy Organizations: intel, MOD, Service, UK's Ministry of Defence, Washington DC, for, Agence France Locations: Russia, Avdiivka, Adviivka, Ukraine, Donetsk Oblast, Zaporizhia, Bakhmut
Israel's ground invasion of Gaza could plunge the country into months of brutal urban warfare. Israel said that the goal was to take out Hamas' military and political leadership. NEW LOOK Sign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Israeli soldiers have been given additional urban environment training in recent days to help them fight in the ruins of Gaza, the NYT reported. "And it's really obvious now that Hamas are essentially laying a trap for Israel."
Persons: , Benjamin Netanyahu, Ali Qadi, Nimrod Novik, YURI CORTEZ, Netanyahu, Israel, Alex Younger, Younger Organizations: Service, New York Times, Israel Defense Forces, Hamas, Twitter, Getty, Sunday, Reuters Locations: Gaza, Lebanon, Israel, Israeli, AFP, Tel Aviv
A former UK intel chief said Hamas "laid a trap" for Israel. He said the militant group was provoking Israel to invade Gaza. AdvertisementAdvertisementAttacks by the Hamas militant group were likely a ploy to lure Israel into a costly ground invasion of Gaza, the former head of Britain's MI6 spy agency said. Roberto Serra - Iguana Press/Getty Images"And it's really obvious now that Hamas are essentially laying a trap for Israel," said Younger. There are fears the conflict could expand if Israel invades Gaza, and Iran-backed militia Hezbollah could launch attacks on Israel from Lebanon.
Persons: , Israel, Alex Younger, Sir Alex Younger, Roberto Serra, ", Benjamin Netanyahu Organizations: intel, Hamas, Service, Gaza, UK Intelligence Service MI6, Palace, Iguana Press, Hezbollah Locations: Israel, Gaza, Trento, Trentino, Italy, Iran, Lebanon
The Kremlin will likely wait until after the next election to announce any mobilizations, the UK MOD said. AdvertisementAdvertisementRussia doesn't want to announce an "unpopular" big mobilization of troops until after its next presidential election, according to UK intelligence. "It is therefore highly unlikely that any further mobilisation wave will be implemented before the March 2024 presidential election," it said. Putin has not yet announced that he will seek a new term in office, but the UK MOD said he "will almost certainly run again." The UK MOD said that, despite this, the election process remains "a core tool of political legitimisation" for the Kremlin.
Persons: Putin hasn't, , Russia's, Vladimir Putin, Putin, Russia aren't Organizations: MOD, Service, UK Ministry of Defence Locations: Russia, Ukraine
Russia shot down one of its own Su-35 fighter jets, UK intelligence said Wednesday. AdvertisementAdvertisementRussia shot down one of its own Su-35 fighter jets in a recent friendly-fire incident, UK intelligence suggested. The incident took place on Setpember 28 near Tokmak, a city in occupied Ukraine near the front lines in the Zaproizhzhia region, the UK update said. AdvertisementAdvertisementTokmak, is some 12 miles from the front, and a Russian base there would be bristling with heavy air-defense, the UK update said. Russia's air force has lost around 90 planes since the start of the war in Ukraine, UK intelligence said last week.
Persons: , Andrii Tsaplienko Organizations: Service, British Ministry of Defence, Russian Defense Ministry Locations: Russia, Tokmak, Ukraine, Zaproizhzhia, Russian, Ukrainian
This suggests that Moscow is preparing for the war in Ukraine to carry on for years. Observers believe that Russia is hoping Western support for Ukraine will wane. She said that the Russian president was "waiting it out" in the hope that Western support of Ukraine would waver. He has also been unclear about how much he would support Ukraine. "If Trump is reelected, Putin has reason to believe that he could strike a much better deal on Ukraine."
Persons: , Sergei Shoigu, Shoigu, Nina Khrushcheva, Putin, He's, he's, Donald Trump, Trump, Michael McFaul, Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin Organizations: intel, Observers, Service, UK Ministry of Defence, Russia's Finance Ministry, Ministry of Defence, Russian Defence, Armed Forces, International Affairs, The New School, BBC, Republican Locations: Russia, Moscow, Ukraine, New York City
Russia is likely moving naval operations away from Crimea amid Ukrainian attacks, UK intel said. Russian naval aviation is attempting to assert Russian dominance over the Black Sea, the MOD added. AdvertisementAdvertisementA UK intelligence assessment said that some of Russia's naval operations in the Black Sea have been relocated following recent Ukraine attacks on its Crimean base. The UK's Ministry of Defence said on Monday that the threats had likely pushed some of Russia's Black Sea fleet activities to move to the port of Novorossiysk, on Russia's western coast. Russia abandoned Snake Island, in the northwestern Black Sea, early in its full-scale invasion, but has continued with attacks on it.
Persons: Organizations: intel, Black, Fleet, MOD, Service, UK's Ministry of Defence, — Ministry of Defence Locations: Russia, Crimea, Sevastopol, Ukraine, Novorossiysk
The new head of Wagner is likely seen as a "traitor" by his men, per a UK intelligence assessment. AdvertisementAdvertisementRussian President Vladimir Putin has picked someone to lead the powerful Wagner paramilitary group who is likely viewed as a "traitor" by his own men, according to a British military intelligence assessment published Saturday. A Kremlin spokesperson later described Troshev, a veteran of Wagner operations in Syria, as an employee of Russia's defense ministry. As a result, "Many Wagner veterans likely consider him a traitor," stated the Sept. 30 assessment. And that future, it continued — in contrast with the Prigozhin days — will likely entail "greater oversight from the Kremlin."
Persons: Wagner, Andrei Troshev, Vladimir Putin, , Putin, Yevgeny Prigozhin, iva, ann Organizations: Service, Kremlin, Ministry of Defense, Ukraine –, Defence Locations: Ukraine, Syria, osh
Russia's air force has lost 90 planes in Ukraine since February 2022, British intelligence said. Despite this, Russia still has the ability to fly missions over occupied Ukraine, the update said. AdvertisementAdvertisementRussia's air force has lost 90 planes since the start of the war in Ukraine and is becoming less formidable by overworking its jets, UK intelligence said. Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 28 September 2023. Its air force has managed to maintain its overall front-line strength by restoring old, grounded airframes and acquiring from NATO countries 18 Su-25s and 27 MiG-29s.
Persons: Organizations: Service, British Ministry of Defence, Latest Defence, Ukraine –, Defence Locations: Ukraine, Russia
Ukraine's attacks against Russia's Black Sea Fleet have been causing more damage than ever, UK intel said. The UK's Ministry of Defense said the Russian fleet is likely losing its ability to defend its assets. AdvertisementAdvertisementUkraine's military has beefed up its attacks against Russia's Black Sea Fleet, causing more destruction than ever, British intelligence said on Tuesday. The physical damage done to Russia's Black Sea Fleet was described by British intelligence as "almost certainly severe but localized." AdvertisementAdvertisement"A dynamic, deep strike battle is underway in the Black Sea," the UK intelligence group said.
Persons: Russia's, , Vladimir Putin's, Viktor Sokolov, Sokolov Organizations: intel, UK's Ministry of Defense, Service, Russian Ministry of Defense Locations: Russian, Crimean, Ukrainian, Sevastopol, Ukraine, Russia
Russia's military is suffering from "extreme attrition and high turnover," the UK MoD says. This problem persists even in its most senior ranks, highlighted by frequent changes in an elite regiment. Russia has lost multiple senior commanders during the conflict in Ukraine. The department pointed to the high turnover of commanders of the Russian 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment, one of Russia's most prestigious airborne regiments. This particular regiment's high turnover highlights a a persistent problem across the Russian military, the UK department noted.
Persons: Vasily Popov, Pyotr Popov, Konstantin Zizevsky Organizations: MoD, Service, UK Ministry Defence, Russian 247th Guards Air Assault Regiment, Russian, Black, Fleet Locations: Russia, Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Russian, Crimea
Russia's lack of training is hindering its troops' ability for successful attacks, the UK MOD said. Get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in business, from Wall Street to Silicon Valley — delivered daily. "Higher-level training" had mostly been put on hold since the full-scale invasion began in 2022, the UK Ministry of Defence said in a daily update. Russia's most significant effort to increase its manpower began a year ago, with the conscription of around 300,000 Russian reservists. It remains unclear whether those recruitment efforts will translate into meaningful changes in the war.
Persons: Andrei Kartapolov, Vladimir Putin Organizations: MOD, Service, UK Ministry of Defence Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine
Russia has redeployed troops away from Bakhmut, likely weakening its defenses, the UK MOD said. Ukrainian troops are within 5 miles of the city, the Ministry of Defence added. It's part of Ukraine's attempts to draw troops away from the main axis of the war, one expert said. AdvertisementAdvertisementUkraine breached a strategic defensive line and recaptured two villages, with Russian forces "likely battle-weary from the recent efforts to hold Klishchiivka and Andriivka," the ISW said. It added that Russian forces "will likely struggle to replenish their combat strength and defend against any further Ukrainian offensive activity."
Persons: Alex Kokcharov, Kokcharov Organizations: MOD, Ministry of Defence, Service, UK Ministry of Defence, Institute for, P Global Market Intelligence Locations: Russia, Bakhmut, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Klishchiivka, Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia, Russian, Dnipro, Ukrainian
Ukrainian and Russian forces are battling each other for islands in the Dnipro River, UK intel said. Both sides have "launched raids with teams in small boats," said the UK's Ministry of Defense. The troops are using the opportunity to distract from combat on the front lines, the intel said. Ukrainian and Russian troops have "launched raids with teams in small boats against the islands and against the opposite riverbanks," the UK's Ministry of Defense said. In June, Ukraine launched its counteroffensive to reclaim Russian-occupied territory in the east and south of the country, but it's been largely slow-moving.
Persons: it's Organizations: UK intel, UK's Ministry of Defense, intel, Service, Kyiv Locations: Dnipro, UK, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine's Kherson Oblast, Zaporishshia, Donetsk, Ukraine
Russia is using elite paratroopers as regular infantry, the UK MOD said. The VDV force isn't at full strength and is being used to help overstretched Russian lines, it said. The situation is one that is unlikely to please the elite force's hierarchy, it added. AdvertisementAdvertisementThe VDV forces have likely reinforced Russia's 58th Combined Arms Army, part of Russia's ground forces, according to the UK MOD, with the situation coming about as Russia's military finds itself overstretched. Once again, they are being used as line infantry to augment over-stretched ground forces," the MOD said.
Organizations: MOD, Service, UK Ministry of Defence, Arms Army, Washington DC, for Locations: Russia, Wall, Silicon, Ukraine, Robotyne
Ukraine likely made "a significant tactical breach" on the southern front, a new report says. The advance comes after a successful week for Ukrainian forces. The offensive of Ukrainian forces has been widening a gap in the frontline for several weeks, the report adds, clarifying that "Ukrainian forces have yet to complete a breakthrough of this defensive layer" with heavy armor and vehicles. Ukrainian forces told Reuters and Ukrainian media that an experimental sea drone called Sea Baby, was used as part of this attack. On Saturday, a NATO admiral told the military alliance that "history books will show Ukraine has transformed modern warfare.
Persons: Ukraine's, Al, ISW, Don — Organizations: Service, Assault Brigade, Reuters, Russia, Directorate of Intelligence, Ministry of Defence, Ukrainska Pravda, Fleet, MoD, Kilo, NATO Locations: Ukraine, Wall, Silicon, Robotyne, Andriivka, Bakhmut, Klishchiivka, Al Jazeera, Rozdolivka, Crimea, Screengrab, Russian, Ukrainian, Sevastopol, Russia, Minsk, Rostov
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