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☆ Turkish central bank to hike rates sharply in post-election pivot
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Ali Kucukgocmen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

But the level remains uncertain as the central bank has not given any signals as to its next steps, including the size or pace of potential hikes. Some economists have expressed doubt about Erdogan's commitment to abandoning his unorthodox policy of low rates, which led the central bank to slash its policy rate from 19% in 2021 to 8.5% currently. The median estimate for the policy rate at end-2023 was 30%, with forecasts ranging from 18% to 35%. He named Naci Agbal as central bank governor in Nov. 2020 but, after some sharp rate hikes, replaced him less than five months later. The central bank is scheduled to announce its rate decision at 1100 GMT on Thursday.

Persons: Murad Sezer, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Malek Drimal, Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Moody's, Naci, Simsek, Ali Kucukgocmen, Marc Jones, Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler, Christina Fincher Organizations: REUTERS, Societe Generale, stoke, Thomson Locations: Istanbul, Turkey, ISTANBUL

☆ Morning Bid: Ready for more rate hikes, and one cut
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-19 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

June 19 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been predictably subdued in Asia as a U.S. holiday provides a convenient excuse for stocks to consolidate recent hefty gains before a bevy of central bank meetings this week. Most indices are down, with the Nikkei off modestly having climbed 22% over a 10-week streak to hit 33-year highs. The coming week is also jammed with central bank action, led by China on Tuesday where prime loan rates are expected to be cut by 10 basis points. Futures seem unimpressed with just 21 basis points of tightening priced in by September, though one final hike in July is rated as a decent 70% chance.

Persons: Wayne Cole, It's, Antony Blinken's, deigned, Kazuo Ueda, Jerome Powell, Isabel Schnabel, Luis de Guindos, Philip Lane, Sam Holmes Organizations: Nikkei, NASDAQ, Bank of Japan, Federal, Bank of, ECB, Thomson Locations: Wayne, Asia, U.S, Beijing, China, Bank of England, Norway, Switzerland

☆ Erdogan sees swift steps from new finance minister but says his own monetary views unchanged
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"Some of our friends should not be mistaken, such as (asking) 'Is our president going for a serious change in interest rate policies?'" "But upon the thinking of our treasury and finance minister, we have accepted that he will take steps swiftly, comfortably with the central bank," Erdogan said. Analysts at leading investment banks now expect Turkey's central bank to start ramping up rates at its monetary policy committee meeting on June 22. Erdogan said he told the new central bank governor about his expectations. "God willing, neither our finance minister nor our central bank governor will embarrass us and I think we will hopefully obtain positive results."

Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Mehmet Simsek, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Simsek, Orhan Coskun, Nevzat Devranoglu, Huseyin Hayatsever, Ali Kucukgocmen, Daren Butler, Peter Graff Organizations: stoke, Authorities, Wall Street, Toksabay, Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Azerbaijan, Turkish, Ankara

☆ JPMorgan expects Turkey central bank to lift rates to 25% on June 22
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

LONDON, June 12 (Reuters) - JPMorgan said on Monday it expects Turkey's central bank to hike interest rates to 25% from the current 8.5% at its June meeting, adding this could come with forward guidance suggesting smaller hikes ahead if needed. June 22 is the first scheduled policy meeting after Hafize Gaye Erkan was appointed as central bank governor on Friday. "We maintain our year-end policy rate forecast at 30%, with risks on the upside," Nicolaie Alexandru-Chidesciuc wrote in a note to clients. "We forecast a recession in 2H23 on the back of a tightening in credit conditions." The Wall Street bank confirmed it expected the country to tip into recession in the second half of the year due to tightening credit conditions.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Nicolaie Alexandru, Chidesciuc, Karin Strohecker, Amanda Cooper Organizations: JPMorgan, Thomson Locations: 2H23

☆ Dollar eases after jump in U.S. jobless claims; Fed in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

An employee deals with U.S. one-hundred dollar banknotes at a bank on June 16, 2022 in Hai an, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province of China. The dollar retreated on Friday, dragged down by lower U.S. Treasury yields after a spike in weekly jobless claims raised hopes that a peak in U.S. interest rates was near, as the focus turned to the upcoming week packed with central bank meetings. Against the Japanese yen , the greenback dipped to a one-week low of 138.765, tracking a slide in U.S. Treasury yields. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield last stood at 3.7317%, after falling 7 basis points on Thursday. So that'll show up in payrolls numbers and jobless claims and these sorts of numbers," said Jarrod Kerr, chief economist at Kiwibank.

Persons: Jarrod Kerr, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Mohammed Elmi Organizations: U.S, Treasury, Federated Hermes Locations: Hai, Nantong City, Jiangsu Province, China, Asia, U.S, Kiwibank, United States

☆ Erdogan picks Hafize Gaye Erkan to lead Turkey's central bank
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailErdogan picks Hafize Gaye Erkan to lead Turkey's central bankShe is the country's fifth central bank governor in four years. CNBC's Dan Murphy reports.

Persons: Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, CNBC's Dan Murphy

The central bank's first female governor, Erkan is also its fifth chief in four years, underlining the challenge she may face delivering a lasting policy turnaround after Erdogan has all but stamped out the bank's independence in recent years. Analysts now expect Turkey's central bank to hike interest rates to between 20% and 25% from 8.5% as soon as this month. ORTHODOX FINANCE MINISTERErdogan, a self-proclaimed "enemy" of interest rates, has pressed the central bank to deliver stimulus in recent years and has been quick to replace its governor. The central bank slashed its policy rate to 8.5% from 19% in 2021, leaving real rates deeply negative and the lira largely managed by dozens of regulations covering credit and foreign exchange. But the last central bank governor to raise rates, Naci Agbal, was fired in 2021 after less than five months on the job.

Persons: Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Goldman Sachs, Erdogan's, Erdogan, Kavcioglu, Selva Demiralp, Mehmet Simsek, Simsek, Erkan, Naci Agbal, Marsh, Kathryn Wylde, Wylde, Ali Kucukgocment, Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler, Cynthia Osterman, Hugh Lawson Organizations: Lira, First Republic Bank, Official Gazette, Koc University, U.S . Federal Reserve, Princeton University, First, JPMorgan, Analysts, FINANCE, Greystone, Partnership, New, Thomson Locations: ISTANBUL, United States, unorthodoxy, Erkan, U.S, New York City

☆ The US government just declared war on crypto
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-07 | by ( Dan Defrancesco | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

In less than 24 hours, the SEC filed lawsuits against some of the biggest players in crypto. First came Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, and its outspoken CEO and founder Changpeng Zhao. The SEC drew a line in the sand for the entire crypto ecosystem: It's our way or the highway. Too many things that make crypto special — anonymity, decentralization — are exactly the type of things financial regulators hate. Here are two experts both issuing warnings about the stock market.

Persons: Dan DeFrancesco, we've, Al Pacino, Michael Corleone, Changpeng Zhao, bitcoin, it's, Gary Gensler, Goldman Sachs, Gensler, FTX's Sam Bankman, Fried, Binance, Kim Kardashian, Mike Coppola, Kim K, It's, Hafize Gaye Erkan, she's, Serta Simmons, LIV Golf, Michael Klein, Jeffrey Cane, Nathan Rennolds Organizations: Paramount, SEC, Netflix, Getty, SKKY Partners, First, Goldman, Party, PGA, LIV, LinkedIn Locations: outflows, First Republic, Republic, California, New York, London

☆ First Republic's former co-CEO could be Turkey's next central bank chief
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-06 | by ( Jeffrey Cane | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A former co-CEO of First Republic is said to be in line to be Turkey's next central bank chief. Turkey's central bank is expected to return to more orthodox policies. That's not stopping the Turkish government, which is considering Hafize Gaye Erkan, a former co-CEO of First Republic, to be the next governor of its central bank, according to reports. The bank would ultimately name the chief financial officer, Michael Roffler, to be CEO. Turkey's central bank has been a punching bag for Erdogan, who has forced out its leaders and pressured the bank to slash interest rates even in the face of surging inflation.

Persons: Hafize Gaye Erkan, Goldman Sachs, Recip Tayyip Erdogan, Erkan, Jim Herbert, Herbert, Graystone, Michael Roffler, Erdogan, Mehmet Şimşek Organizations: First, Morning, Princeton, JPMorgan Chase, Erkan, Reuters, First Republic, Financial Times, Bogazici University Locations: First Republic, Turkey's, Turkey, Republic

☆ Erdogan considering Erkan as Turkey cenbank chief, sources say
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-05 | by ( Orhan Coskun | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

Erkan met with Mehmet Simsek, Turkey's newly-appointed treasury and finance minister, in Ankara on Monday, one of the sources said. The two sources told Reuters she is set to meet Erdogan soon to discuss the possible role. Turkey's policy rate was cut to 8.5% from 19% in 2021, setting off a historic currency crash in late 2021. Erkan would be the country's fifth central bank chief in four years. The central bank has been the linchpin of Erdogan's programme of monetary stimulus and targeted credit to boost economic growth, exports and investments.

Persons: Erdogan, Tayyip Erdogan, Hafize Gaye Erkan, Erkan, Mehmet Simsek, Sahap Kavcioglu, Goldman Sachs, Simsek, Kathryn Wylde, Wylde, Naci Agbal, Marsh, Jonathan Spicer, Daren Butler, Angus MacSwan, Emelia Organizations: Reuters, First Republic Bank, Treasury, Ivy League, Princeton, New, First, JPMorgan, Greystone, Thomson Locations: Turkey, ANKARA, United States, Ankara, New York City, U.S

☆ Turkish economy to return to 'rational ground', new finance minister says
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( Nevzat Devranoglu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ANKARA, June 4 (Reuters) - Turkey's newly appointed Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek said on Sunday that the country has no choice but to return to "rational ground" to ensure predictability in the economy. In a handover ceremony, Simsek said the main goal of the new government will be to increase social welfare. "Turkey has no other choice than to return to a rational ground. A rules-based, predictable Turkish economy will be the key to achieving the desired prosperity." Fiscal policies and structural reforms will support Turkey's central bank to help lowering inflation, Simsek also said.

Persons: Mehmet Simsek, Tayyip Erdogan, Simsek, Goldman Sachs, Huseyin Hayatsever, Hugh Lawson, Susan Fenton Organizations: Thomson Locations: ANKARA, Turkey

☆ Turkey votes in runoff election after candidates double down on nationalism and fear
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-28 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

People walk past an election campaign poster for Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on May 25, 2023 in Istanbul, Turkey. The country is holding its first presidential runoff election after neither candidate earned more than 50% of the vote in the May 14 election. Still, no candidate surpassed the 50% threshold required to win; and with Erdogan at 49.5% and Kilicdaroglu at 44.7%, a runoff election was set for two weeks after the first vote on May 14. "Kilicdaroglu has adopted a harder line on immigration and security ahead of the run-off … is unlikely to be enough," Kinnear said. Already, though, his anti-refugee rhetoric has angered many of his supporters and prompted resignations from some of his campaign allies.

☆ Turkey's Erdogan says interest rates will fall as long as he is in power
▼ + stars: | 2023-04-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

ANKARA, April 21 (Reuters) - Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan said on Friday that interest rates will fall as long as he is in power, and that inflation will decline with them, repeating his unorthodox views. Erdogan was speaking in Istanbul weeks before a presidential election on May 14. Turkey's central bank has slashed its policy rate to 8.5% from 19% since late 2021 in line with Erdogan's economic views. The easing cycle led to a currency crisis and sent inflation soaring, eating away at household savings. Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen Editing by Mark HeinrichOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ S&P changes Turkey's outlook to 'negative'
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-31 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

March 31 (Reuters) - S&P Global Ratings revised its outlook for Turkey to "negative" from "stable" on Friday, citing vulnerabilities from the country's low policy rates, directed lending and regulatory control on its foreign currency positions and interest rates. And a devastating earthquake that hit the country earlier in February is expected to keep inflation elevated in the run-up to the presidential and parliamentary elections on May 14. Turkey's central bank, on Feb. 23, cut its main interest rate to 8.5% to cushion the impact of the earthquake on its economy. "Given Turkey's elevated current account deficits, limited usable reserves, high inflation and reliance on occasional capital inflows, the outlook for the exchange rate remains, at best, uncertain," S&P said in a statement. Reporting by Saikeerthi in Bengaluru, Darren Butler in Ankara; Editing by Shilpi MajumdarOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Separately, in a televised interview on Wednesday, Erdogan downplayed the significance of the meeting with Simsek, saying such meetings were ordinary. A senior government official told Reuters the AKP was somewhat divided with some members opposed to Simsek's return, and described the outcome of the Erdogan meeting as "undesirable". The party may now need to revise its economic platform ahead of the election campaign, he added. The AKP declined to comment on whether it was revising its economic strategy ahead of the vote. Two recent polls by MAK and Turkiye Raporu show the opposition presidential challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu between 4 and 9 percentage points ahead of Erdogan.

☆ Saudi Arabia deposits $5 bln in Turkey's central bank - statement
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

DUBAI, March 6 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia has signed an agreement with Turkey to deposit $5 billion in the country's central bank through the Saudi Fund for Development (SFD), the fund said on Monday. Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Bin Abdullah Al-Jadaan announced his country's intention to make the deposit in December. The Turkish central bank's net international reserves fell some $1.4 billion to $20.2 billion in the week to Feb. 24, data from the bank showed on Thursday. The Saudi deposit follows joint efforts by Ankara and Riyadh to mend ties that were ruptured after the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 at the kingdom's consulate in Istanbul. The deposit was signed between SFD Chairman Ahmed Aqeel Al-Khateeb, who is also Saudi Arabia's tourism minister, and Turkish Central Bank Governor Sahap Kavcioglu, the SFD statement said.

☆ Saudi Arabia drops $5 billion in Turkey's central bank to help its struggling economy
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-06 | by ( Natasha Turak | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Saudi Minister of Finance Mohammed Al-Jadaan speaks during a meeting of Finance ministers and central bank governors of the G20 nations in the Saudi capital Riyadh on February 23, 2020. Saudi Arabia agreed to deposit $5 billion into Turkey's central bank through its Saudi Fund for Development, the fund said in a statement Monday. The decision is "a demonstration of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia's commitment to supporting Turkey's efforts to strengthen its economy," the statement said. Turkey's inflation is still above 55%, and its currency is hovering near record lows against the dollar after several years of policy intervention by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who resisted raising interest rates despite mounting inflation. In the years since, the countries had used various means to unofficially boycott each other's products and flights or block each other's media outlets.

☆ Turkey slashes policy rate by 50 basis points as country continues to reel from earthquake
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-23 | by ( Lee Ying Shan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Turkey's central bank on Thursday slashed its policy rate by 50 basis points from 9% to 8.5% as the country continues to reel from the aftermath of a devastating quake which affected millions of lives. The country's most recent inflation rate in January stood at 57.68%. Turkey's monetary policy is premised on a pursuit of growth and export competition rather than soothing inflation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan espouses the unorthodox view that raising interest rates increases inflation, rather than taming it. The Turkish lira held steady at 18.87 against the greenback following the central bank decision.

ISTANBUL, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Turkey's central bank lowered its policy rate by 50 basis points to 8.5% on Thursday, as expected, following a devastating earthquake that killed more than 43,000 people in southern Turkey this month. It said after its monthly monetary policy committee meeting that it will closely monitor earthquake driven supply-demand imbalances on inflation and stressed the importance of supporting economic growth and employment. Last year the bank cut its key rate by 500 basis points in an unorthodox easing cycle designed to counter an economic slowdown, before keeping it steady at 9% in December and January. In a Reuters poll of 17 economists, the median forecast was for a 50-basis-point cut to minimise the economic impact of the earthquake. Nine economists expected a cut in the policy rate of up to 200 basis points, while eight institutions expected the rate to be kept steady.

☆ Turkish cbank to provide 2% support to firms that convert forex from abroad
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

ISTANBUL, Jan 26 (Reuters) - Turkey's central bank said on Thursday it will provide 2% foreign exchange conversion support to companies that bring forex into the country from abroad, sell it to the central bank and pledge not to buy forex for a period determined by the bank. After selling 40% of the forex they bring into the country to the central bank under pre-existing rules, companies will be allowed to deposit the remaining amount into conversion accounts under a scheme that protects lira deposits against forex depreciation, the bank said. It said companies who pledge not to buy more forex than they have sold to the central bank for a period determined by the bank will be given support equal to 2% of the amount they converted and deposit in such accounts. The move aims to support the bank's liraization targets in commercial activities, the bank said, adding that lenders will determine whether the forex sold to the central bank and deposited in lira protected accounts is obtained from abroad. Reporting by Ali Kucukgocmen and Can Sezer; Editing by Muralikumar AnantharamanOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Turkey's current account deficit at $4.1 bln in November; $48 billion in 2022
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-06 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

ANKARA, Jan 6 (Reuters) - Turkey is expected to record a current account deficit of $4.1 billion in November, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, while the deficit was seen at $48 billion in 2022, after soaring energy prices derailed Ankara's plans to shore up the shortfall. In a Reuters poll, the median estimate of 11 economists for the current account deficit (TRCURA=ECI) in November was $4.1 billion, with forecasts ranging from $1.4 billion to $4.75 billion. The median forecast for the deficit in 2022 stood at $48 billion, down slightly from a previous poll, with estimates ranging between $43 billion and $49 billion. Global energy prices have made that goal all but unattainable in 2022 though authorities say a surplus will be achieved when energy prices normalise. Turkey's central bank is scheduled to announce the November current account data at 0700 GMT on Jan 11.

☆ Turkey cenbank targets 60% lira deposits in banks in H1
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-30 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

ANKARA, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Turkey's central bank said on Friday it aims to lift the share of lira deposits to 60% of all deposits in the banking system over the next six months, and vowed to continue using regulations to support access to credit. In its annual monetary policy report, the central bank said it was maintaining its long-held 5% medium-term inflation target, as the annual inflation rate begins edging down from a 24-year high above 85% in October. The central bank, which has undertaken an "liraization" policy of stabilizing the currency as it has slashed interest rates, repeated it had no forex target level and would not buy or sell hard currencies to direct the lira. Reporting by Nevzat Devranoglu Ezgi Erkoyun; Writing by Jonathan Spicer; Editing by Ece ToksabayOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Saudi Arabia will soon make $5 bln deposit with Turkey -Saudi finance minister
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-07 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

RIYADH, Dec 8 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia will place a $5 billion deposit at Turkey's central bank "within days," the kingdom's finance minister, Mohammed al-Jadaan, said on Wednesday. The decision was taken between us and Turkey," he told reporters, saying discussions were on remaining details and the deposit could happen "within days." "There is great improvement in our relationship with Turkey and we aspire for investment opportunities in Turkey and other countries," he said. A Saudi finance ministry spokesman told Reuters on Nov. 22 that the two states were in "final discussion" on the deposit. The momentum of talks between the countries' central banks comes after Ankara and Riyadh's joint effort to mend ties that were ruptured after the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018 at the kingdom's Istanbul consulate.

"Talks for Qatar to provide new resources to Turkey have reached the final stage. The second Turkish official said the talks for $2-3 billion funding for this year were focused on the eurobond. Turkey's Finance Ministry has borrowed $9 billion in 2022, of the $11 billion foreign borrowing foreseen for the year. The ministry foresees $10 billion foreign borrowing for 2023 but it can bring forward its debt issuances when needed for earlier financing. Turkey is also in the final stage of talks with Saudi Arabia on Riyadh placing a $5 billion deposit at the Turkish Central Bank, a Saudi finance ministry spokesman said on Tuesday.

☆ Turkey cuts rates by 150 basis points and ends easing cycle
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-24 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

An electronic board displays exchange rate information at a currency exchange bureau in Istanbul, Turkey, on Monday, Aug. 29, 2022. Turkey's central bank on Thursday cut interest rates by 150 basis points to 9% and decided to end its cycle of monetary policy easing, citing increased inflation risks. The central bank has been under consistent pressure from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to continue cutting rates despite soaring inflation, which hit 85.5% year-on-year in October as food and energy prices continued to soar. "Considering the increasing risks regarding global demand, the Committee evaluated that the current policy rate is adequate and decided to end the rate cut cycle that started in August," the central bank said in a statement. "The effects of high global inflation on inflation expectations and international financial markets are closely monitored.

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