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Commercial real estate is probably the next pain point for regional banks and the stock market, according to BofA. The bank noted that US regional banks account for 68% of all commercial real estate loans. The weakness in commercial real estate is evidenced in current market prices for stocks and debt tied to the sector. This is a perfect storm for regional banks because they have so much exposure to commercial real estate loans. According to Bank of America, US regional banks account for 68% of commercial real estate loans, much more than their mega-cap banking peers.
A record amount of commercial mortgages expiring in 2023 is set to test the financial health of small and regional banks already under pressure following the recent failures of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. Smaller banks hold around $2.3 trillion in commercial real estate debt, including rental-apartment mortgages, according to an analysis from data firm Trepp Inc. That is almost 80% of commercial mortgages held by all banks.
Bank Crisis Adds a Fresh Crack in Property’s Foundations
  + stars: | 2023-03-16 | by ( Carol Ryan | ) www.wsj.com   time to read: 1 min
The relationship between banking and real estate may be about to take a toxic turn. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank will likely ripple through the mortgage market to commercial landlords. Signature Bank was one of the top commercial real-estate lenders in the U.S., especially in New York, where it had a 12% market share, according to Matthew Anderson, managing director at Trepp.
Three experts tell Insider office prices need to fall before conversions are commonplace. But for these plans to be successful, the world of real estate must address the elephant in the room: Office buildings are simply too expensive. Moody's laid out some basic math: In 2021, the average New York apartment building traded at $434 a square foot. Now in the US, he's up to the same business but not yet with the vacant office buildings that dot the downtowns of large metropolises. Among them is an older, 130,000-square-foot St. Louis office building, which represents some of the city's most outdated stock, Rubin told Insider.
Office owners like Brookfield, RXR, and Related are in the process of defaulting on office loans. Some of real estate's biggest names have defaulted on their office debt in recent weeks. The delinquency rate for office loans is only 1.83% now, according to Trepp, a firm that researches real-estate debt. Loans come dueOver this year and next year, 24% of commercial real estate loans will be coming due, many of them office loans, per Hendry. Office buildings, from the newest and shiniest Class A towers to the older and less-sexy Class B buildings, were a pretty safe investment, as long as they were in the right locales.
The man behind Trump World’s myth of rigged voting machines
  + stars: | 2022-12-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +32 min
He publicly announced his purchase of Montgomery’s data in August at a gathering in Missouri of hundreds of his followers. “I own it,” Lindell said of Montgomery’s data, touting it as irrefutable proof Trump was cheated. On Nov. 9, far-right podcaster Joe Oltmann linked Montgomery’s Hammer and Scorecard claims to a parallel conspiracy theory: that widely used voting machines manufactured by Dominion Voting Systems were rigged to flip votes from Trump to Biden. Powell amended her complaint a few days later and dropped the expert’s declaration and the references to Montgomery’s claims. But the government said in a recent court filing that the order has nothing to do with election data.
Year-over-year price growth has already slowed for commercial properties, signaling souring outlooks that could reduce values by 20 to 30%, the strategists wrote in a report. Executives at the Bisnow event pointed to high rents on multifamily properties, though growth is softening. Yardi"If this doesn't clear the market, then I don't know what does," Marcus said of her multifamily properties, which she described as large and relatively new. Andrew Holm, a cohead of US investments at Ares, the owner of more than $50 billion in commercial real estate, is hunkered down for the long haul, however. At the Bisnow event, he was so bearish on commercial real estate that he struggled to name a single sector that might be attractive over the next six months.
It'll take years to gauge the effect of remote work on major office buildings across the US. Trepp, a company that tracks real-estate debt, has compiled a list of 10 office leases to watch. Deals can take months to complete, while office leases often can run up to 10 years, resulting in typically steady income for property owners through the ebbs and flows of the broader economy. In order to fully understand what's happening, it can be helpful to look at some of the largest leases in major buildings across the country. Landlords usually purchase large office buildings with large loans, so naturally, the income of the property is of great interest to whoever holds the debt.
The big investors TPG and the Cardinal Group made a bet on student housing in fall 2020. Investing in student housing seemed like an uncertain wager at best; no one knew when life would go back to normal. That's created an opportunity in niche asset classes, such as student housing, he added. The trend is not likely to end soon, with the cost of college housing on the same upward trajectory as tuition. With students, international and domestic, back at school again, student housing is hotter than ever.
Investors are eyeing profits in campgrounds and RV parks as Americans flock to the great outdoors. Camp Margaritaville RV Resort and Cabana Cabins Auburndale, Central FloridaThe trend is also driven by demographics. Sam Zell's Equity Lifestyle Properties, another large REIT that invests in RV parks alongside mobile homes, has also been busy. While it's not clear how much big investors have thrown into RV campgrounds, manufactured housing communities as a whole have seen a burst of Wall Street financing. After looking hard at multifamily and industrial, he settled with RV parks.
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