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Moves in bond yields, implied inflation breakeven rates, and inflation-adjusted 'real' yields suggest investors anticipate the Fed's 'higher for longer' interest rate policy will help lower inflation to around 2.5%. But this is not a re-pricing of the Fed's near-term trajectory, rather a repricing of the longer term economic and inflation outlook. This suggests the Fed is entering a phase of structurally higher rates than perhaps policymakers themselves, and certainly investors, had anticipated. Many analysts are skeptical that moves in bond yields can be broken down, quantified and compartmentalized with any great degree of accuracy. TIPS are a key market-based barometer of investors' inflation expectations, but they have their flaws.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goldman Sachs, Marvin Barth, Barth, Torsten Slok, Jamie McGeever, Christina Fincher Organizations: Chicago Fed, CNBC, Securities, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida

☆ The Fed's commentary about the future trumps any moves they make today, says Torsten Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-20 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed's commentary about the future trumps any moves they make today, says Torsten SlokTorsten Slok, Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, lays out his expectations for the latest Federal Reserve policy decision.

Persons: Torsten Slok Torsten Slok Organizations: Apollo Global Management, Federal

Sept 18 (Reuters) - Cadence Bank (CADE.N) CEO Dan Rollins calls the regional banking crisis from earlier this year "March madness." Interviews with half a dozen regional bank executives and economists show the March banking crisis has had a lasting impact on the regional banking industry and the economy. Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, said the banking crisis had "a magnifying effect" on the Fed's tightening but its full impact would come with a lag. The failure triggered a crisis of confidence, with depositors moving their money from regional banks to the perceived safety of the largest lenders. The KBW Regional Bank Index (.KRX) is down about 20% since early March despite a summer rebound.

Persons: Dan Rollins, Rollins, Mark Zandi, ”, Zandi, Torsten Slok, Slok, Cadence's Rollins, Steve Wyett, Wyett, Banks, Cadence’s Rollins, Randy Chesler, Chesler, Moody's Zandi, Jeff Jackson, Raj Singh, Singh, Paritosh Bansal, Anna Driver Organizations: Cadence Bank, Moody’s, Apollo Global Management, Bank, Reuters Graphics, Valley, Regional, BOK, Federal, Loan, Thomson Locations: . Federal, Silicon, Tulsa , Oklahoma, Kalispell , Montana, Wheeling , West Virginia

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Apollo Global's Torsten Slok and Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Apollo Global's Torsten Slok and Edward Jones' Mona MahajanTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, and Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones senior investment strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what to expect from next week's Federal Reserve meeting, what could be a risk ahead for equity investors, and more.

Persons: Apollo Global's Torsten Slok, Edward Jones, Mona Mahajan Torsten Slok, Mona Mahajan Organizations: Apollo Global Management, Reserve

☆ The Fed will be reluctant to declare 'mission accomplished': Edward Jones' Mona Mahajan
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-15 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe Fed will be reluctant to declare 'mission accomplished': Edward Jones' Mona MahajanTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, and Mona Mahajan, Edward Jones senior investment strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss what to expect from next week's Federal Reserve meeting, what could be a risk ahead for equity investors, and more.

Persons: Edward Jones, Mona Mahajan Torsten Slok, Mona Mahajan Organizations: Apollo Global Management, Reserve

Reuters Graphics Reuters GraphicsMonth-to-month inflation numbers "will inevitably hop around," wrote Pantheon Macroeconomics Chief Economist Ian Shepherdson, who sees underlying consumer inflation nevertheless slowing to a "benign" level of below 3% by early next year. Since their meeting in July, only two Fed policymakers have said they felt rates do not need to rise further, while others noted their outlook for slowing inflation was built around a slightly higher federal funds rate. Overall bank credit has been falling on a year-over-year basis since mid-July, evidence of financial firms tightening access either through higher rates or stricter standards. By and large Fed officials feel the economy can grow about 1.8% a year with inflation at the 2% target and assuming "appropriate monetary policy." The outlook has diminished prospects for a U.S. recession, but may well keep Fed concerns about high - or higher - inflation alive.

Persons: Jessica Rinaldi, Ian Shepherdson, Jerome Powell, Powell, Torsten Slok, Goldman Sachs, Steven Blitz, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Investors, Apollo Global Management, Lombard Chief U.S, Fed, Thomson Locations: Flushing , New York, U.S

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Apollo Global's Torsten Slok and Truist's Keith Lerner
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Apollo Global's Torsten Slok and Truist's Keith LernerTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, and Keith Lerner, Truist chief market strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the volatility with the 10-year yield, how the high-rate environment will impact equity markets, and more.

Persons: Apollo Global's Torsten Slok, Truist's Keith Lerner Torsten Slok, Keith Lerner Organizations: Apollo Global Management

☆ High-rate effects will keep going and have more negative impacts on economy: Apollo Global's Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-01 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHigh-rate effects will keep going and have more negative impacts on economy: Apollo Global's SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, and Keith Lerner, Truist chief market strategist, join 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the volatility with the 10-year yield, how the high-rate environment will impact equity markets, and more.

Persons: Slok Torsten Slok, Keith Lerner Organizations: Apollo Global Management

☆ CNBC Daily Open: With such high yields, why buy stocks?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

Nathan Howard | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. That's called the equity risk premium, a return that's supposed to compensate stock investors for the chance that they might lose money. Another potential issue that could crop up with high Treasury yields is that it could make the Federal Reserve's job tougher. It wasn't a surprise, then, that stock markets fell Tuesday.

Persons: Nathan Howard, Tesla, Anwar Ibrahim, CNBC's Martin Soong, That's, yield's, Rupert Thompson, Cash, Bob Pisani, it's, Torsten Slok, Adam Turnquist, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Nasdaq, Japan's Nikkei, Malaysia, country's, Vehicle Global, Analysts, International Atomic Energy Agency, Kingswood Group, Dow Jones Industrial, Nvidia, LPL, Yardeni Locations: Washington , DC, Asia, Pacific, Shanghai, Malaysia, California, China, Tokyo

☆ CNBC Daily Open: When yields are this high, why buy stocks?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Yeo Boon Ping | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

Nathan Howard | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThis report is from today's CNBC Daily Open, our new, international markets newsletter. CNBC Daily Open brings investors up to speed on everything they need to know, no matter where they are. Typically, stocks — if they do well — tend to return more than a risk-free asset, precisely because it isn't certain stocks will rise. While "the Fed can control short rates," long rates going up can introduce "significant risk" to the economy, such as the recent Fitch downgrade and quantitative tightening. It wasn't a surprise, then, that stock markets fell Tuesday.

Persons: Nathan Howard, yield's, Rupert Thompson, Cash, That's, Bob Pisani, it's, Torsten Slok, Adam Turnquist, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Treasury, Bloomberg, Getty, CNBC, Kingswood Group, Dow Jones Industrial, Nvidia, LPL, Yardeni Locations: Washington , DC

☆ Wall St Week Ahead Hopes of 'Goldilocks' economy, rate peak buoy US stocks
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-28 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The S&P 500 is up nearly 19% this year after gaining around 1% in the past week. At the same time, investors believe the Fed is unlikely to deliver much more of the monetary policy tightening that shook markets last year. A test of the economy comes next week, when the U.S. reports employment numbers for July. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 is up nearly 44% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 information technology sector has gained nearly 46%. The S&P 500 tech sector now trades at 28.2 times forward earnings, from 19.6 at the start of the year.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Jerome Powell, Bob Kalman, Torsten Slok, Burns McKinney, Randy Frederick, wouldn't, David Randall, Ira Iosebashvili, Deepa Babington Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Federal, Miramar Capital, Apollo Global Management, Meta, Roku Inc, NJF Investment Group, Apple, Microsoft, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Thomson Locations: New York, U.S, Miramar

☆ Slok: There are still risks to the economy that could bring a recession this year
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-18 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailSlok: There are still risks to the economy that could bring a recession this yearTorsten Slok, Partner and Chief Economist at Apollo Global Management, discusses the Federal Reserve, consumer spending, and inflation.

Persons: Torsten Slok Organizations: Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve

☆ Homebuyers must ‘learn to live’ with near-7% mortgage rates, says RE/MAX chairman
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

After all, he recalls the early 1980s when the Federal Reserve’s war on inflation briefly spiked mortgage rates above 18%. “Everyone has been spoiled by the past 15 years of low interest rates,” Liniger, now the chairman of RE/MAX, told CNN. Mortgage rates climbed to 6.96% during the week ending July 13, up from 6.81% the week before, Freddie Mac said Thursday. “We’re just going to have to learn to live with 6.5% or 7% mortgage rates for six to 18 months,” said Liniger. ‘This is the top’Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, is more optimistic about the direction of mortgage rates.

Persons: Dave Liniger, ” Liniger, Freddie Mac, That’s, Liniger, “ We’re, ”, Lawrence Yun, ” Yun, ” Torsten Slok, it’s, Yun, there’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal, CNN, National Association of Realtors, Apollo Group Locations: New York, America

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Apollo Global's Torsten Slok on the Fed's next move
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Apollo Global's Torsten Slok on the Fed's next moveTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the latest jobs report, the current state of the consumer, and what to expect from the Federal Reserve going forward.

Persons: Apollo Global's Torsten Slok, Torsten Slok Organizations: Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve

☆ Jobs report shows Fed has tough time with 'last mile' inflation, says Apollo's Torsten Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-07 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailJobs report shows Fed has tough time with 'last mile' inflation, says Apollo's Torsten SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the latest jobs report, the current state of the consumer, and what to expect from the Federal Reserve going forward.

Persons: Apollo's Torsten Slok Torsten Slok Organizations: Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve

☆ The Fed can’t decide how much money US households have left
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-05 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Interest rates are higher and so are prices, credit is drying up and there are signs that the labor market is finally softening. The problem is that no one, not even the Federal Reserve, knows how much longer the American consumer can keep on spending. Personal saving rates soared as a result, with US households amassing about $2.3 trillion in savings in 2020 and through the summer of 2021, according to Federal Reserve economists. Economists know that savings must be dissipating, but haven’t quite figured out just how much of that money is left. Just a few weeks later, economists at the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in Washington said just the opposite.

Persons: New York CNN — There’s, we’ve, ”, Torsten Slok, Lydia Boussour, Hanna Ziady, Xiaofei Xu, Beijing’s, Laura He, Wei Jianguo, Funflation, Beyflation — Taylor Swift, Fisher, don’t Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Federal Reserve Bank of San, Governors, Apollo Global Management, Consumer, Reuters, China Daily, Fisher Investments, National Statistics Locations: New York, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Washington, United States, EY, Boussour, China, Beijing, Japan, Italy, Netherlands, Swiftflation

☆ 401(k) plans have never been hotter. That’s changing the stock market
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

The bill, signed into law late last year, requires employers to automatically enroll all eligible workers into their retirement plans at a savings rate of 3% of salary. Americans had pension plans, Social Security benefits, and their own savings through plans like the 401(k). Those funds tend to be controlled by large asset managers. But through a process called proxy voting, large asset managers are able to vote on shareholder resolutions on behalf of their clients. Asset managers have “significant influence over company practices,” wrote shareholder advocacy group ShareAction in a recent report.

Persons: New York CNN —, That’s, ”, Dave Stinnett, What’s, ShareAction, Tesla, Torsten Slok Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, BlackRock, Vanguard Group, Fidelity Investments, Street Global Advisors, Vanguard, Social Security, Social, Social Security Agency, Security, Lawmakers, Blackrock, Fidelity, Boston University School of Law, Harvard Law School, Vanda Research, EV, Apollo Global Management Locations: New York, United States

☆ Watch CNBC's full interview with Citi's Scott Chronert and Apollo Global's Torsten Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch CNBC's full interview with Citi's Scott Chronert and Apollo Global's Torsten SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, and Scott Chronert, Citi U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the recent resilience from equity markets, the widening breadth in equities and Slok's expectations for the Federal Reserve and equity markets.

Persons: Citi's Scott Chronert, Apollo Global's Torsten Slok Torsten Slok, Scott Chronert Organizations: Apollo Global Management, Citi U.S, Federal Reserve

☆ Equities are setting up for a 'digestion phase' with recent narrow rally: Citi's Scott Chronert
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-13 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailEquities are setting up for a 'digestion phase' with recent narrow rally: Citi's Scott ChronertTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, and Scott Chronert, Citi U.S. equity strategist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss the recent resilience from equity markets, the widening breadth in equities and Slok's expectations for the Federal Reserve and equity markets.

Persons: Citi's Scott Chronert Torsten Slok, Scott Chronert Organizations: Apollo Global Management, Citi U.S, Federal Reserve

☆ America has lost half its public companies since the 1990s. Here’s why
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-09 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Why it matters: The count of publicly listed companies traded on US exchanges has fallen substantially from its peak in 1996. It’s not that America has half as many companies as 30 years ago – it’s that companies are increasingly staying private, largely outside the scrutiny of the public eye. Publicly listed companies are subject to regulatory oversight and disclosure requirements, which help ensure transparency and maintain investor confidence. “I think it’s natural that companies would delay going public when valuations get halved and investors are not enthusiastic about investing in new companies,” said Kennedy. Some private equity funds have even taken advantage of the bear market to buy up publicly traded companies.

Persons: Matthew Kennedy, “, ”, Kennedy, Torsten Slok, Janet Yellen, Matt Egan, Yellen, Antony Blinken, Elon Musk, Laxman Narasimhan, Jamie Dimon Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Center for Research, Renaissance, Apple, Microsoft, Party, Apollo Global Management, “ Companies, Wells, China, CNN, China Business Council, FedEx, Pepsi, Walmart, Ford, JPMorgan Chase, America ., Marshall Locations: New York, America, Wells Fargo, United States, China, Washington, Beijing

☆ White House hails the end of the supply chain nightmare
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-08 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

New York CNN —White House officials on Thursday hailed the unclogging of supply chains and suggested that further easing of bottlenecks will help cool inflation. “Critical supply chains are significantly more fluid and resilient than they were when the President took office,” White House officials wrote in a supply chain scorecard shared first with CNN. The traffic jam of vessels backed up ports, once a symbol of the supply chain crisis, has all but disappeared. The White House economists said it is a “positive development for consumers” and struck a hopeful tone it will continue. The blog post said there is a high correlation between producer prices and supply chain pressures, suggesting the easing in supply chain pressure may continue to cool inflation.

Persons: ”, Biden, Biden’s, ” Lael Brainard, ” Torsten Slok, “ Organizations: New, New York CNN, White, CNN, National Economic Council, Consumers, IRI, Shipping, New York Federal, Apollo Global Management, Defense, EV, White House Council, Economic Advisers, Institute of Supply, Federal Reserve Locations: New York, Ukraine

☆ Stock Market Chaotic New Normal Will Screw Over Wall Street Investors
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-04 | by ( Linette Lopez | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

Wall Street desperately wants the stock market to go back to the good ol' days. In that environment, any idiot — or anyone on Wall Street — could buy almost any asset, sit back, and watch its value increase. In this scenario, the stock market gets choppy. It was a pull-in-case-of-emergency valve that we pulled for so long that now it feels normal to Wall Street. Despite this constant caterwauling from Wall Street, Americans are working, spending, and helping the economy defy doom-and-gloom forecasts.

Persons: Justin Simon, Jasper Capital, that's, hasn't, it'll, Richard Hayne, —, haven't, Joe Weisenthal, Richard Haynes, Torsten Slok, Simon, Linette Lopez Organizations: Street, San Francisco Fed, Fed, Urban Outfitters, Auto, Walmart, Bloomberg, Urban, NASDAQ, Federal, Apollo Global Management Locations: Jasper, Wall Street, American

☆ Premarket stocks: Why current US recession warnings are unlike all the others
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-12 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

A US recession is coming, they say, in the second half of 2023. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned on Thursday of great economic danger lurking just over the horizon. Things weren’t great last year: Inflation hit a 40-year peak, gas prices were elevated, consumer sentiment plunged and markets fell by 20%. “This has been the most predicted potential recession in memory,” said Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Tom Barkin way back in January. Historically, recession typically coincides with that peak, said Barry Gilbert, asset allocation strategist for LPL Financial.

☆ Fed will keep rates elevated for 'quite some time', says Apollo Global's Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailFed will keep rates elevated for 'quite some time', says Apollo Global's SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global partner and chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss if the equity market is complacent about the debt ceiling, what the debt ceiling standoff will mean for rates and more.

The Fed's meeting will be followed with expected rate increases by the European Central Bank on Thursday and the Bank of England next week. But the U.S. central bank is furthest along in the process, and may signal that this week's rate increase is the last, at least for now. Inflation has been edging down, gradually, with the main price index the Fed watches still more than double the central bank's 2% target. The anticipated quarter-percentage-point increase on Wednesday will put the target federal funds rate at roughly the same spot, between 5% and 5.25%. With this rate increase, Fed officials will hit a level that will be about 1 percentage point above the rate they consider to have a neutral impact on economic activity.

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