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☆ US new home sales fall more than expected in October
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

New home sales dropped 5.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units last month, the Commerce Department said on Monday. September's sales pace was revised lower to 719,000 units from the previously reported 759,000 units. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which account for a small share of U.S. home sales, would fall to a rate of 723,000 units. Most homeowners have mortgage rates under 3%, making many reluctant to sell, boosting demand for new construction. Mortgage rates soared as the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates to fight inflation.

Persons: Sarah Silbiger, Freddie Mac, Torsten Slok, Lucia Mutikani, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, U.S, Commerce Department, Reuters, National Association of Realtors, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Apollo Global Management, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, New York

☆ A default cycle has started amid the Fed's high interest rates, economists say. These 4 charts explain how severe it is.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-27 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A default cycle has started, spurred by high rates and debt costs, economists at Apollo Management said. Data on default rates and bankruptcy filings show just how severe the situation is. Advertisement"A default cycle has started with bankruptcy filings rising, and default rates will continue to rise over the coming quarters, impacting in particular middle market companies," they added. US Speculative grade default rates Apollo Management"The ongoing rise in default rates is not just a 'normalization.' AdvertisementUS bankruptcy filings Apollo ManagementWeekly bankruptcy filings for companies with at least $50 million in liabilities Apollo ManagementSløk has previously said that the Fed's rate hikes were to blame for higher bankruptcies.

Persons: —, Torsten Sløk, Sløk, Apollo Management Sløk, Nicholas Colas, Moody's Organizations: Apollo Management, Service, HY, Apollo, DataTrek, Management Locations: Moody's, Europe

[1/3] An employee hiring sign is seen in a window of a business in Arlington, Virginia, U.S., April 7, 2023. So far, he said at a Boston Fed labor market conference earlier this month, measures like the employment-to-population ratio largely have not behaved differently for key racial groups, for women versus men, or among those with different education levels. Research has since tended to suggest that there may be untapped pools of labor that only become available when the job market is tight - an argument for keeping monetary policy looser than not. The labor market recovery so far has been "remarkably equitable," she said. Pandemic-era programs threw a safety net under many families, and the tight job market that has since developed helped many get a foothold, Rouse said.

Persons: Elizabeth Frantz, William M, Rodgers III, Rodgers, Torsten Slok, Jerome Powell, quartile, Chris Wheat, Cecilia Rouse, Joe Biden, Rouse, what's, we're, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Paul Simao Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Institute for Economic Equity, St, Louis Federal Reserve, Boston Fed, Blacks, Apollo Global Management, JPMorgan Chase Institute, Workers, Reuters Graphics, of Economic Advisers, Brookings Institution, Thomson Locations: Arlington , Virginia, U.S, joblessness

☆ Stock futures fall slightly on Sunday evening with Wall Street riding a four-week winning streak
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-26 | by ( Jesse Pound | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Stock futures dipped on Sunday evening as Wall Street looks to build on four straight positive weeks for the equity market. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked down 38 points, or 0.1%. The rally has come despite warnings from some U.S. retailers that consumer spending is weakening. "The New York Fed's latest household survey shows that a record-high share of consumers are saying that it is much harder to obtain credit ... On Monday, new home sales and the latest Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey are due out.

Persons: Torsten Slok Organizations: Futures, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Treasury, Black, Apollo Global Management, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Locations: York

LONDON, Nov 23 (Reuters) - British voters are set to suffer a "living standards disaster", despite Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt's new tax cut plan, because of the unprecedented fall in household incomes over the course of a parliamentary term, a think tank said on Thursday. The think tank said household disposable income per person was expected to fall 1.5% in 2024, when adjusted for Britain's still high rate of inflation. "But those challenges have also made things far more difficult for households: this is what a living standards disaster looks like." And that then means having to make some really difficult decisions when it comes to public spending but also raising revenue," he told Reuters. ($1 = 0.8025 pounds)Reporting by David Milliken and Bill Schomberg; Editing by Sharon SingletonOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt's, Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Torsten Bell, Gareth Davies, Davies, David Milliken, Bill Schomberg, Sharon Singleton Organizations: Labour Party, Conservative, Reuters, Fiscal Studies, Treasury, Thomson

☆ Why the UK government's tax cuts still leave workers worse off
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-23 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

British Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt that the U.K. economy would not enter a technical recession in 2023, while announcing the government's spring Budget. The U.K. National Insurance is a tax on workers' income and employers' profits to pay for state social security benefits, including the state pension. Touted by the Conservative party as the "largest ever tax cut for workers," the move nevertheless does not shield taxpayers from the effect of frozen tax thresholds that tip more of their income into higher tax brackets, as nominal wages rise. In March 2021, then-Finance Minister Rishi Sunak announced that the personal allowance (PA) and higher-rate thresholds (HRT) of income tax would be frozen for four years until April 2026. Alongside extending the freezes, Hunt in November 2022 froze the upper earnings limit for NI contributions and lowered the additional rate hold from £150,000 to £125,140 from April 2023.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Dan Kitwood, Rishi Sunak's, Hunt, Rishi Sunak, Torsten Bell, Paul Johnson Organizations: British, Getty, Finance, National Insurance, Labour Party, Rishi Sunak's Conservative, Insurance, Conservative, Treasury, Institute for Fiscal Studies

☆ British tax cut spells trouble in store for next government
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-22 | by ( William Schomberg | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

UK Parliament/Jessica Taylor/Handout via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsLONDON, Nov 22 (Reuters) - British finance minister Jeremy Hunt's big tax cut surprise could help the ruling Conservatives recover some favour among voters, but it threatens to store up budget problems for whichever party wins power after the expected 2024 election. Combined with his decision to make permanent the incentives for business investment announced earlier this year, Hunt's package of tax cuts would be worth about 20 billion pounds ($25 billion)a year by the 2028/29 tax year. "The giveaways announced today are funded by handing whoever wins the next election implausibly large spending cuts," Torsten Bell, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation, said. Hunt is likely to remain under pressure from within his party to go further with more tax cuts in a final pre-election budget statement expected in March. "There's a material risk that those plans prove undeliverable and today's tax cuts will not prove to be sustainable," Johnson said.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Jessica Taylor, Handout, Jeremy Hunt's, Hunt, Liz, Rishi Sunak, Labour Party's, Rachel Reeves, Torsten Bell, Investec, David Jones, Paul Johnson, Johnson, William Schomberg, Elizabeth Piper, Alexander Smith Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, Wednesday, Labour, Conservative, Bank of England, Institute for Fiscal Studies, Thomson Locations: London, Britain, British

☆ Ray Dalio says US is reaching an 'inflection point' as debt starts rapidly accelerating
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-20 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The US is nearing an "inflection point" as the debt pile accelerates, Ray Dalio told CNBC. AdvertisementThe US's fiscal situation is heading for an "inflection point" as government debt grows faster than income, according to billionaire investor Ray Dalio. With the government borrowing more money to just pay for debt service while spending continues unabated, the hole gets deeper and deeper, he said on a CNBC interview on Friday. AdvertisementSuch issues have also impacted foreign demand, Dalio warned, noting that 40% of US debt is sold to foreigners. We are near that inflection point."

Persons: Ray Dalio, —, it's, Torsten Sløk Organizations: CNBC, Service, Bridgewater Associates, Apollo Management

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: What recession? A record number of US consumers plan to vacation in a foreign country in the next 6 months
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The share of US consumers who plan to visit a foreign country in the next six months is at a record high. "The bottom line is that rates will stay higher for longer because the Fed is still trying to get non-housing service sector inflation under control." download the app Email address Sign up By clicking “Sign Up”, you accept our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy . AdvertisementThat suggests the Fed is likely to keep interest rates higher for longer even though markets are starting to warm up to the idea of interest rate cuts in 2024. Advertisement"The bottom line is that rates will stay higher for longer because the Fed is still trying to get non-housing service sector inflation under control," Sløk said.

Persons: Apollo, —, Torsten Sløk, Sløk Organizations: Service, Conference, Federal

If both are calculated in dollar terms, however, Chinese stocks have, by some measures, carried an advantage over the very long term. Many observers say demographics, deleveraging, and de-risking - U.S. firms on-shoring, new supply chains, and trade tensions – will be a considerable long-term drag on Chinese growth. Little wonder, perhaps, that Chinese stocks are so cheap. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBased on 12-month forward price/earnings multiples, U.S. stocks are twice as expensive as Chinese stocks. For the past 10 years Chinese stocks have been substantially cheaper than U.S. stocks, and most of the decade before that they were usually cheaper too.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Torsten Slok, Janet Yellen, Lifeng, Colin Graham, Graham, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Shanghai, CSI, Reuters, Apollo Global Management, U.S, Treasury, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, China, Mexico

☆ American consumers may be starting to buckle. Here are 5 warning signs a spending slowdown is on the horizon.
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-11 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Americans are saving lessThe personal savings rate slumped to 3.4% in September. That's well-below the pre-pandemic savings rate, when Americans were stashing away around 7% of their disposable personal income. Consumers aren't planning to splurge this holiday seasonAmericans are less likely to splurge this holiday season than last year. McKinsey & CompanyAmericans are looking less likely to splurge, even as they head into the holiday season. "Hiring for the holiday season is generally done in October, and adding up new jobs created in the BLS-defined holiday season retail sectors in the latest employment report shows that retailers expect a weaker holiday season," Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok said in a note on Tuesday.

Persons: Macquarie, Thierry Wizman, —, Wizman, Morgan Stanley, Torsten Slok Organizations: Service, Macquarie Global, New York Fed, Federal Reserve, San Francisco Fed, Conference, Conference Board, McKinsey & Company, McKinsey, Apollo, of Labor Statistics Holiday, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS Locations: York

☆ The case for a career in bond investing
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-27 | by ( Felix Martin | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

I sensed familiarity with the recent fate of fixed income benchmarks such as Austria’s hundred-year government bond. For this reason, when bond yields are low, the sensitivity of capital prices to inflation and interest rate shocks is high, and vice versa. The appreciating greenback has been a drag on much of the global fixed income universe for the past decade. The real reason to go into fixed income investing, I explained, is that you get to tell governments what to do. Now that the end of monetary anaesthesia has awoken fixed income from its 15-year coma, I told the MBA students, you’ve got your chance.

Persons: Bonds, That’s, Torsten Slok, GMO’s, Liz Truss, ”, Bill Clinton’s, James Carville, you’ve, Peter Thal Larsen, Streisand Neto, Thomas Shum Organizations: Reuters, Treasury, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Apollo Global Management, U.S ., JPMorgan, Economist, UK, Thomson Locations: U.S, Venezuela

☆ The stock market is riskier and more volatile than it was in past decades. Here's why.
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-26 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

The S&P 500 has become more volatile in recent years, according to research firm DataTrek. The bigger factor is the massive growth of big tech stocks that make up more and more of the S&P 500. "The S&P 500 has become noticeably more volatile over the last +60 years, but returns have not increased commensurately," DataTrek said in a note published Thursday. AdvertisementAdvertisementHere's why the research firm sees higher risk in the stock market today than in past eras. Unexpected developments hit harderAnother explanation is that the market in recent years has had an outsized reaction to unanticipated developments relative to past eras.

Persons: —, DataTrek, Apollo, Torsten Sløk Organizations: Service, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, Big Tech, Data, GameStop

After 525 basis points of interest rate hikes, financial conditions are now the tightest in a year, and biting. JPMorgan strategists estimate that the impact on GDP from tightening financial conditions takes anywhere from one to two years to be felt. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsThe renewed weakness of U.S. regional bank shares is one of them. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsReuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBNP Paribas analysts reckon the impact on GDP growth from tighter financial conditions recently equates to a 40 basis point rate hike. Around a third of the bank's financial conditions index rise since April is from higher bond yields.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Goldman Sachs, Torsten Slok, Morgan Stanley, Jerome Powell, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Rights, Fed, Treasury, Wall, JPMorgan, National Federation of Independent, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, October's

☆ Recession is coming on the horizon, says Apollo Global's Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRecession is coming on the horizon, says Apollo Global's SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'Squawk on the Street' to discuss his thoughts on the global economy, why the Federal Reserve believes policy may not be tight enough, and the Federal Reserve's tools to bring the economy out of recession should it begin.

Persons: Slok Torsten Slok Organizations: Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve

☆ The US is headed for recession, but a key difference from past downturns could make it milder, Apollo chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The US economy is headed for a recession, but it's likely to be milder than prior slumps, Apollo's chief economist said. That's because any potential slowdown this time around would be "engineered" by the Fed, Torsten Sløk told CNBC. When recession arrives, the Fed can undo the measures it took that initially slowed the economy, he added. Another recession is coming, but this time around the culprit is also the savior, making it a lot less harmful, according to Apollo Management's chief economist, Torsten Sløk. "Here today, this is all engineered by the Fed, the slowdown," Sløk said.

Persons: Torsten Sløk, —, Apollo, Sløk Organizations: CNBC, Service, Fed Locations: It's

☆ Jamie Dimon is right: Economic forecasts have been wrong lately, but that's really nothing new
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-25 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +6 min

Win Mcnamee | ReutersForecasters have been really wrong on the economy recently, but it's nothing new: They've always been wrong. — that the economic forecasts of the major Wall Street banks had been "100 percent dead wrong" in the last 18 months. It's true that Covid and the Russian invasion of Ukraine threw off forecasts, but that's beside the point: Wrong forecasts are the norm, not the exception. The Federal Reserve's own research staff studied the Federal Reserve's economic forecasts from 1997 to 2008 and found that the Fed's predictions for economic activity one year out were no better than average benchmark predictions. The Times story notes other factors that threw off recent economic forecasts: the Russian invasion of Ukraine: being too pessimistic on growth prospects, lack of good data on real-time consumer savings.

Persons: Win Mcnamee, Jamie Dimon, —, Dimon, He's, Torsten Slok, Russia hadn't, It's, Philip Tetlock, Covid Organizations: U.S . Federal, Washington , D.C, Reuters, JPMorgan Chase, Future Investment, New York Times, Apollo Global Management, Federal Reserve, New York Stock Exchange, Federal, University of Pennsylvania, Fed Locations: Washington ,, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Ukraine, U.S

☆ The stock market's volatility indicator is signaling a trough in the S&P 500
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

The stock market's volatility gauge is signaling a trough in the S&P 500. Futures for the CBOE Volatility Index indicated more uncertainty about the near term than longer term. Futures contracts tied to the volatility index, also known as the VIX, track the expected amount of market volatility down the line. It speaks to more anxiety about where the stock market is headed amid recession angst, the bond market rout, and mushrooming geopolitical risk. In September, the volatility index was trading at post-pandemic lows, signalling a strong bull market and fizzling recession fears.

Persons: —, Torsten Sløk Organizations: Service, Bloomberg, Apollo Locations: Israel

☆ Analysis: Wall Street's 'Magnificent Seven' face moment of truth as earnings season arrives
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-19 | by ( Lewis Krauskopf | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Valuations have swelled, with the Magnificent Seven trading at an average forward price-to-earnings ratio of 33.5, compared with the S&P 500's P/E of 18.3. “Everybody knows these guys are going to make money," said Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII), referring to the Magnificent Seven. "The reallocation of funds going forward is going to suggest lower returns and more difficulty for the Magnificent Seven to maintain their leadership." The seven companies' combined market capitalization topped 30% of the S&P 500's overall market value earlier this month, according to LSEG Datastream. Some investors are also drawing distinctions among the seven stocks.

Persons: Aly, Tesla, Sameer Samana, Tajinder Dhillon, Tim Pagliara, CapWealth, Pagliara, Elon Musk, LSEG Datastream, Torsten Slok, Patrick Kaser, Kaser, Lewis Krauskopf, Ira Iosebashvili, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: Apple, REUTERS, Microsoft, Nvidia, U.S, Tesla, Wells, Investment Institute, Google, Facebook, Federal, Treasury, “, Global, Apollo Global Management, Brandywine Global, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, China, Apple

☆ Bankruptcies are surging - and Fed rate hikes are to blame, economist says
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Aruni Soni | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Rising US corporate bankruptcies are due to Fed rate hikes, Apollo chief economist said. "The September data for bankruptcy filings are out, and more and more companies are going bankrupt because of Fed hikes," said Apollo chief economist Torsten Sløk in a note on Friday. "Bankruptcies are hitting companies with high levels of debt and low earnings in the Consumer discretionary, Healthcare, and Industrials sectors," Sløk added. AdvertisementAdvertisementSome of the other headline bankruptcies this year have included the collapse of Yellow, Bed Bath & Beyond, and Silicon Valley Bank. According to experts, a rising wave of bankruptcies and debt defaults could risk rocking the economy towards a recession.

Persons: —, Torsten Sløk, Sløk Organizations: Service, P, Healthcare, SmileDirectClub Inc, Silicon Valley Locations: Silicon

☆ Is China really dumping Treasury bonds and sending yields higher? A former US official explains the mystery
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +4 min

China is not actually dumping its stockpile of US bonds, former Treasury official Brad Setser wrote. A large part of China's holdings are not accounted for in official US data, he said. While it has sold some Treasurys, Beijing has also bought up US debt in the form of agency bonds. Agency bonds are issued by government-sponsored enterprises, and some of the top issuers are US-backed firms like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. During 2022 and the first six months of 2023, China purchased over $100 billion agency debt and sold just $40 billion in Treasurys, he estimated.

Persons: Brad Setser, —, Torsten Sløk, Setser, Belgium's, China's, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Organizations: Treasury, Service, Council, Foreign Relations, Apollo, Treasury International Capital, Foreign, Administration of Foreign Exchange, Agency Locations: China, Beijing, Treasurys

☆ It's still too early for the Fed to say 'mission accomplished', says Apollo's Torsten Slok
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIt's still too early for the Fed to say 'mission accomplished', says Apollo's Torsten SlokTorsten Slok, Apollo Global Management chief economist, joins 'Closing Bell Overtime' to talk the current U.S. job market.

Persons: Apollo's Torsten Slok Torsten Slok Organizations: Apollo Global Management

☆ Rolls-Royce CEO Torsten Muller-Otvos retires after boosting sales six-fold
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-05 | by ( Robert Frank | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Rolls-Royce CEO Torsten Muller-Otvos unveils the new coachbuilt Rolls-Royce Boat Tail on May 27, 2021, at the Home of Rolls-Royce in Goodwood, West Sussex, England. Torsten Muller-Otvos, the Rolls-Royce CEO who turned an aging brand into a coveted badge of success for pop stars, athletes and young entrepreneurs, is retiring after 14 years. Rolls-Royce announced Thursday that Muller-Otvos, 63, the longest serving CEO of Rolls-Royce in nearly a century, will retire on December 1. Muller-Otvos brought new shine to the Rolls-Royce brand and became a leader in the luxury world by attracting a new generation of wealthy buyers. Muller-Otvos is the longest-serving CEO of Rolls-Royce since Claude Johnson, who brought Charles Rolls and Henry Royce together in 1904 and served until 1926.

Persons: Torsten Muller, Otvos, Muller, Chris Brownridge, " Muller, Claude Johnson, Charles Rolls, Henry Royce, Cullinan, Royce Organizations: Royce, BMW UK, Muller, CNBC, NBA Locations: Goodwood , West Sussex, England, U.S

It needs to translate into changes in economic outcomes," Bostic said in comments to reporters alongside the release of a new policy essay. Part of that adaptation is how the Fed's short-term benchmark is translated ultimately into mortgage rates, corporate bonds yields, and other securities that influence economic activity. In separate comments, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she similarly is watching how the rise in bond yields will play out, even though she feels the Fed's policy rate still needs to rise. It may well be that the Fed's hawkish rate posture is no longer the primary impetus for the rise in yields. Reporting by Howard Schneider and Dan Burns; Editing by Andrea RicciOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Raphael, Bostic, Clodagh, Raphael Bostic, Loretta Mester, Mester, Torsten Slok, Slok, Howard Schneider, Dan Burns, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, REUTERS, Rights, Federal Reserve, Treasury, Atlanta Federal Reserve, U.S, Cleveland Fed, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Fitch, Treasury Department, Bank of, Thomson Locations: Dublin, Ireland, Atlanta, China, York

Moves in bond yields, implied inflation breakeven rates, and inflation-adjusted 'real' yields suggest investors anticipate the Fed's 'higher for longer' interest rate policy will help lower inflation to around 2.5%. But this is not a re-pricing of the Fed's near-term trajectory, rather a repricing of the longer term economic and inflation outlook. This suggests the Fed is entering a phase of structurally higher rates than perhaps policymakers themselves, and certainly investors, had anticipated. Many analysts are skeptical that moves in bond yields can be broken down, quantified and compartmentalized with any great degree of accuracy. TIPS are a key market-based barometer of investors' inflation expectations, but they have their flaws.

Persons: Austan Goolsbee, Goldman Sachs, Marvin Barth, Barth, Torsten Slok, Jamie McGeever, Christina Fincher Organizations: Chicago Fed, CNBC, Securities, Apollo Global Management, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida

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