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Consumers continued to sour on the economic outlook in November while also growing more pessimistic about future inflation, according to the first estimate from the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. The index of consumer sentiment fell 5% to a reading of 60.4, down from 63.8 in October. “Ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine weighed on many consumers as well.”“Overall, lower-income consumers and younger consumers exhibited the strongest declines in sentiment,” Hsu added. Various surveys measuring the minds of consumers have found them to be worried about inflation and the economy in general. “Consumer sentiment continues to trend downward at a moderate pace as consumers attempt to juggle inflation and higher interest rates,” said Damian McIntyre, Portfolio manager and head of multi asset solutions at Federated Hermes.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, ” Hsu, Joe Biden, Damian McIntyre, Gregory Daco, ” Daco, Goldman Sachs Organizations: University of Michigan, “, Federated Hermes, Federal Reserve, Index, Louis Federal Reserve Bank Locations: Gaza, Ukraine, Kentucky, Ohio

Many people subsequently turned to remote work, and the workforce recovered but only to be plunged into three years of an incredibly tight labor market. Today, the unemployment rate is at 3.9% following an increase in October from the prior’s month’s 3.8% level, and by most measures the labor market is considered very strong. “It does seem like the labor market is getting a little more balanced,” says Gene Tannuzzo, global head of fixed income at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. The overwhelmingly takeaway is that the labor market has defied most predictions and shown a level of resiliency and adaptability that has surprised many observers. This was the “excess retirements” who were causing the labor market to be exceptionally tight.

Persons: Gene Tannuzzo, “, ”, Bill Armstrong, “ We've, Guy Berger, James Neave, ” Neave, –, Berger, ’ Berger, Sarah House, it’s, women’s Organizations: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Safeguard Global, Technology, LinkedIn, Walmart, General Motors, Google, Wells, Louis Federal Reserve Bank, & $ Locations: Minnesota

“So many more people have credit cards now.”Wise says the main thing to watch for is how strapped consumers are in their overall financial condition. There are signs the consumer may still have a little left in the tank. And speaking of tanks, gas prices have been coming down, a move that will free up a little more money for consumers to spend. And this occurred while consumers repeatedly tell surveys they are feeling gloomy and pessimistic about the state of the economy. The pace of increase in consumer prices has fallen from around 9% annually in the summer of 2022 to under 4% now.

Persons: ”, Donghoon Lee, “, TransUnion, TrasnUnion, Charlie Wise, ” Wise, we’ve, ” Patrick De Haan, De Haan, Lisa Sturtevant, Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, Joseph Brusuelas, Tuan Nyugen Organizations: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York Fed, TransUnion, “, MLS, Federal, ” Goldman, Adobe Locations: U.S, California

Market-churning economic news is lacking this week, but that doesn’t mean Wall Street and the economy can rest easy. The political news heats up, with Donald Trump set to testify in his civil fraud trial in New York. And elections take place across the country on Tuesday that could show where the country stands politically one year out from the 2024 election. Meanwhile, a softer-than-expected jobs report on Friday had some analysts saying the economy was headed for a downturn. “The unemployment rate rose just a tenth to 3.9% in October versus September which the BLS called little changed,” he said.

Persons: Donald Trump, State Anthony Blinken, Bond, ”, Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, ” Chris Rupkey, Powell, ” Powell, “ Organizations: GOP, Hamas, State, West Bank, Federal Reserve, ZipRecruiter, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, BCA Research Locations: New York, Miami, Israel, Iraq, Turkey, Washington

The economy added 150,00 jobs in October, suggesting a mild slowdown following September’s outsized gain, the Labor Department reported on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls comes in a bit light, downward revisions to previous 2 months and wage growth on the low end. On the margin it feels like it has softened up, but it's still a mighty hot job market,” says Steve Preston, CEO of Goodwill Industries. The Federal Reserve has been looking to the labor market for signs it has reached a better balance between supply and demand than a year ago. Chairman Jerome Powell noted that the labor market has remained strong even as interest rates have risen at a sharp pace over the past year.

Persons: ”, Noah Yosif, Nonfarm payrolls, ” Kathy Jones, it's, Steve Preston, ” Preston, Geno Cutolo, Scott Hamilton, ” Hamilton, Jerome Powell, “ We've Organizations: Labor Department, UKG, ”, Schwab Center, Financial Research, Goodwill Industries, Federal Reserve, Labor Locations: North America

The labor market continues to show resilience, with the number of job openings barely budging in late September at 9.6 million, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Economists had predicted job openings would decline to around 9.278 million, but the number at 9.6 million was more or less in line with the revised 9.5 million a month earlier. Job openings increased in accommodation and food services with 141,000 positions added as well as in arts, entertainment, and recreation, up by 39,000. While that was below estimates of a 150,000 gain, it was an increase from the 89,000 jobs created in September. The Federal Reserve has been looking for the labor market to slow, and on Friday the government will report the number of jobs created in October.

Persons: Economists, ”, Gargi Chaudhuri Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve Locations: Americas

The central bank left interest rates unchanged from its September meeting, but its formal statement acknowledged that “economic activity expanded at a strong pace in the third quarter.” In its last statement in September, it referred to the economy’s “solid” pace. But the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell made sure that the lack of action Wednesday does not mean that rates could be raised should incoming data show the economy is remaining strong. And the Fed says it remains committed to bringing annual inflation down to its target level of 2%. “As of Oct 31, markets expect that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates above 4.5% through the end of 2024. But we think that interest rates could go much lower,” said BeiChen Lin, investment strategy analyst at Russell Investments.

Persons: Jerome Powell, Powell, “, We’re, ” Powell, “ We’re, It’s, ”, Neel Mukherjee, Subadra Rajappa, BeiChen Lin Organizations: Federal Reserve, Commerce Department, Fed, Societe Generale, Russell Investments Locations: TIAA, 10y

Private employers added 113,000 workers in October, led by the education and health care sectors, payroll firm ADP said on Wednesday. “No single industry dominated hiring this month, and big post-pandemic pay increases seem to be behind us,” said ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson. Political Cartoons on the Economy View All 605 ImagesThe ADP report kicks off the week’s focus on employment data. “The 1.1% rise in the Employment Cost Index in Q3 was a touch stronger than expected but showed labor cost pressures continue to slowly ease on trend,” said Wells Fargo economists. “With the ECI still running north of 4%, labor cost growth remains too high to be consistent with the Fed's 2% inflation target.

Persons: ”, Nela Richardson, “, it's, Wells, Rucha Vankudre, ” Vankudre Organizations: Labor Department, “

Home prices rose 0.4% in August and at an annual rate of 2.6%, as low inventories buoyed prices even while mortgages hit the 7% level. The CoreLogic Case-Shiller index for the month found 12 of the 20 cities in the index saw higher prices in August from the year-ago period. home prices continued to rise in August 2023,” said Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI. “The year’s increase in mortgage rates has surely suppressed housing demand, but after years of very low rates, it seems to have suppressed supply even more. Political Cartoons on the Economy View All 604 Images“The affordability challenge is being exacerbated by persistently higher mortgage rates,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS.

Persons: ”, Craig J, Lazzara, ” Selma Hepp, Lisa Sturtevant, Hannah Jones, That’s, Rhys Williams, It’s, Venkat Balakrishnan, –, Dana Peterson, “, ” Peterson Organizations: Bright MLS, Federal Reserve, ”, Census Bureau, “, Realtor.com, Management, Fed, Conference Board, Hamas, Financial Group Locations: Chicago, New York, Detroit, Las Vegas, “, Israel

Do policymakers look back to last week’s report that the nation’s economy grew at a 4.9% rate in September, beating expectations? Or this week’s report on job growth for October due out on Friday after the Fed meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday? On Wednesday, the jobs data onslaught begins with private payroll firm ADP reporting its monthly employment survey for October. Political Cartoons on the Economy View All 602 ImagesWednesday also has the Fed announcing its decision on interest rates. These include adjustments to the Fed’s new regime of higher interest rates for a longer period and the government’s fiscal situation that requires a greater level of debt issuance.

Persons: Jerome Powell, ” Sam Bullard, Wells, ” Bullard, ” Chris Diaz, ”, Louisiana Republican Mike Johnson, Johnson Organizations: Conference Board, Fed, Treasury, Federal, Brown Advisory, Labor Department, McDonalds, Apple, Dow Industrial, Louisiana Republican Locations: Louisiana

Inflation, as measured by an index closely followed by the Federal Reserve, dipped slightly in line with estimates in September, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday. The personal consumption price expenditures index rose 0.4% for the month, unchanged from August, while rising 3.4% on an annual basis, down from 3.5% a month earlier. The narrower core index, excluding food and energy costs, rose 0.3% for the month, in line with expectations but up from the 0.1% increase in August. For the year, the core index is running at 3.7%, an improvement from the 3.9% registered a month ago. The report showed that spending also increased, by 0.7%, while incomes rose by 0.3%,“Core Inflation: the three month annualized pace of core PCE slowed to 2.4% y/y.

Persons: Joseph Brusuelas, Mark Vitner, Joe Davis, Andrew Patterson, ” Organizations: Federal Reserve, Economic, PCE, RSM, Fed, Crescent Capital, Vanguard, Global, “ Locations: Europe

The U.S. economy is on a roll, expanding at a 4.9% annual clip in the third quarter, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Thursday. Analysts are looking for the overall index to show prices increased at a 3.4% annual rate and the core index at 3.7%, down from 3.5% and 3.9%, respectively. On Wednesday, Adobe Analytics issued its monthly measure of online prices showing they continue to fall, hitting a 41-month low in September. “Online prices fell for the majority of Adobe’s tracked categories (12 of 18) on an annual basis. On a month-over-month basis, online prices were down 0.6%.”

Persons: ” Joseph Brusuelas, ”, Steve Rick, Raymond James, Eugenio Aleman, “ Organizations: Economic, RSM US, Federal Reserve, TruStage, Labor Department, Adobe Analytics, “ Locations: U.S

But a couple of the world’s largest oil companies beg to differ – or at least for the future that extends out about three decades. This month, Exxon Mobil and Chevron have together bet heavily on a future their CEOs think will still need a lot of black gold. Hess also has considerable oil and gas assets in the U.S., including the Bakken area of western North Dakota, eastern Montana and southern Saskatchewan in Canada. But equally critical, the moves are important statements that the age of oil remains, despite the release on Tuesday of the annual world energy outlook from the International Energy Agency that forecasts global demand for fossil fuels will peak in 2030. Although he has championed many green energy policies, President Joe Biden also has done little to block the advancement of domestic oil and gas production.

Persons: Hess, ” Chevron, “ Hess, ”, Dan Pickering, we’re, it’s, ’ –, Fatih Birol, Mike Wirth, “, Pickering, Joe Biden Organizations: White, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Natural Resources, Republican Party, “ Investors, Pickering Energy Partners, Hamas, International Energy Agency, Financial Times, French, U.S . Energy, Administration, Republicans Locations: Brussels, Chevron, U.S, Guyana, North Dakota, Montana, Saskatchewan, Canada, Texas, New Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Israel, Iran, Europe

That is more than double the 2.1% recorded in the second quarter and a testament to the strength of consumers. But he warned that stronger than expected economic data, particularly as regards the labor market, could leave the door open to even more pressure to raise rates or keep them higher for longer. "Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth, or that tightness in the labor market is no longer easing, could put further progress on inflation at risk and could warrant further tightening of monetary policy." Complicating matters is that the post-pandemic economy has not gone according to script where higher interest rates almost always blunt economic activity and cause a marked slowdown in the labor market. “The labor market is still adjusting, if it ever does, there’s a question whether retail will ever recover completely,” he says.

Persons: ” Sam Bullard, Wells, Jerome Powell, Powell, ”, George Calhoun, Calhoun, Bill Adams, –, speakership Organizations: Federal, Economic, of New, Stevens Institute of Technology, University of, Comerica, “ Locations: U.S, of New York, Washington, Israel

☆ America’s Debt Crisis Burns While Congress Fiddles
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Tim Smart | ) www.usnews.com time to read: +9 min

Last month, the Penn Wharton Budget Model from the University of Pennsylvania came out with an analysis of the debt crisis entitled “When Does Federal Debt Reach Unsustainable Levels?”Their answer? The concern is that punting the problem into the future, continuing to raise debt even as interest rates rise further or hold at higher levels for longer, the debt will grow even faster in a “snowball” scenario. Similar proposals have been offered over the years but at the same time they seem to lack political support – indeed, Republicans have recently voiced the idea of cutting Social Security. The debt crisis is rapidly worsening at a time when the bond market is having its own set of problems. A recent government auction of debt, an occurrence that is becoming more common as the U.S. borrows more, saw weak demand.

Persons: Dick Cheney, Richard Neal, Democrats –, Blu Putnam, Alan Greenspan, Ben Bernanke, Jerome Powell, ”, Gene Steuerle, Richard B, Fisher, probity, Kevin McCarthy, Kent Smetters, Boettner, Smetters, Richard Robis, Donald Trump Organizations: Capitol, Democratic, Massachusetts, The New York Times, Federal Reserve, Partisans, Democrats, Fed, CME Group, Social Security, Medicare, Urban Institute, California Rep, Penn Wharton Budget, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, Wharton, Social, Republicans, Treasury, Hamas, BCA Research, White House Locations: U.S, United States, Washington, China, Japan, Israel

Sales rose in the Northeast but fell elsewhere, although sales were down year to year throughout the country. Sales are now running at an annual rate of 3.96 million, down 15.4% from 4.68 million a year ago. On Tuesday, the Census Bureau reported that retail sales rose by 0.7%, more than twice what had been expected, as consumers flocked to eating and dining establishments and shopped more online. Among middle-income households, 25% plan to spend more, while 16% of low-income households will increase holiday spending. “Despite a lot of the negativity you see everywhere, consumers seem pretty resilient,” Rose says.

Persons: ”, Lawrence Yun, LEI, Justyna, Monica, TransUnion, Mark Rose, ” Rose Organizations: National Association of Realtors, Federal, Conference, The Conference Board, “, The, Board, Federal Reserve Bank, Atlanta’s, Census Bureau, Labor Department

The report reflects the uneasy state of new construction, with builders facing the strain of high mortgage rates and increased costs for building materials. “To keep buyers interested, many builders have been offering upgrades or buying down mortgage rates, but rising home prices coupled with mortgage rates approaching 8% means there will be fewer buyers in the market to entice,” Bright MLS Chief Economist Lisa Sturtevant said. It is the week’s second report on the state of the new housing market. On Tuesday, the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index revealed that builder confidence fell for the third consecutive month in October. "Today’s September housing starts report reflects the fragility of the real estate market,” said Travis Hodges, managing director at insurance broker VIU by HUB.

Persons: “, ”, Lisa Sturtevant, Alicia Huey, Travis Hodges Organizations: Census Bureau, Department of Housing, Urban Development, MLS, National Association of Home Builders, National Association of Realtors Locations: Wells Fargo, Birmingham , Alabama, Florida, California

Retail sales increased 0.7% in September, driven by nonstore retailers and spending at food and drinking establishments, the Census Bureau reported on Tuesday. Even after stripping out autos, as some analysts do, the increase was 0.6%, way above estimates of a 0.2% gain. As long as those trends remain positive, consumers will feel they have the wherewithal to continue shopping. “Consumer spending has been fairly flat over the last two months,” according to Bank of America Institute’s Consumer Checkpoint October report. However, the wages and salaries of higher-income households are still growing at slower rates than other income cohorts.”Many retailers will be looking to the critical holiday season for a boost in sales.

Persons: ”, Ted Rossman Organizations: Census, Bankrate.com, “, Federal Reserve, Employers, Labor Department, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Cyber, Signifyd’s Commerce

With two wars, a rising price of oil and a shaky bond market, there is plenty of worry for the markets and economists this week, including a slew of corporate earnings reports and data on the state of the housing market and retail spending. Meanwhile, Russia has been pressing its invasion of Ukraine that is now a year and a half old. Last week ended with a surprise increase in consumer’s expectations of inflation in the University of Michigan’s sentiment survey. Where new home construction a few months ago was holding up the housing market, now it has slumped amid mortgage rates that have brushed 8%. The firm published its monthly economic outlook last week and did not include any more Fed rate hikes in the current cycle.

Persons: “, Jerome Powell, Powell, ” Sam Bullard Organizations: Hamas, University of, “, BCA Research, ”, National Association of Home Builders, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, National Association of Realtors, Economic, of New, Wells Locations: East, Ukraine, Gaza, Israel, Palestinian, U.S, Iran, Lebanon, Russia, of New York

Consumers fell prey to inflation that remains high, especially for life’s necessities like food and gasoline, according to the latest monthly survey from the University of Michigan. The consumer sentiment survey fell by 7% overall to 63 from 68.1 in September, while the current conditions reading dropped to 66.7 from 71.4 and the future expectations was at 60.7, down from 66 a month ago. Notably, expectations for the annual rate of inflation a year from now rose to 3.8% from 3.2% in September. “Assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%,” said Joanne Hsu, survey director. “Owners remain pessimistic about future business conditions, which has contributed to the low optimism they have regarding the economy,” said Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB chief economist.

Persons: ”, Joanne Hsu, Sam Bullard, Joe Brusuelas, Tuan Nguyen, NFIB, Bill Dunkelberg, JP Morgan Chase, Jamie Dimon Organizations: University of Michigan, Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Wells Locations: U.S, Washington

Consumer prices rose 0.4% in September, more than economists had expected, as rising costs for shelter drove the increase, the Labor Department reported on Thursday. On an annual basis, the consumer price index was unchanged for the month, at 3.7%. The core CPI, leaving out energy and food costs, rose 0.3%, while the yearly rate dropped to 4.1% from 4.3% previously. The CPI release follows Wednesday’s producer price index that rose more than expected, at 0.5% for the month, and 2.2% for the year. But, over the last 12 months, consumer inflation has fallen from an 8.2% pace – although it remains well above the 2% annual goal set by the Federal Reserve.

Persons: ” Johan Grahn Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, Allianz Investment Management, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank

A majority of Federal Reserve officials believed at their September meeting that interest rates would need to remain “restrictive” until they are convinced inflation is headed firmly toward the central bank’s 2% annual target. Though there were differences as to whether more interest rate hikes would be needed, a majority did favor one more increase, minutes from the meeting released Wednesday show. Since then, market interest rates have surged, with the yields on U.S. Treasurys reaching 5%, although they have backed off in recent days following uncertainty over the war between Hamas and Israel. Still, the bond market does seem to be buying the “higher for longer” message from the Fed. “We think the Fed is done” raising interest rates, says Gene Goldman, chief investment officer at Cetera Investment Management.

Persons: Gene Goldman Organizations: Federal Reserve, Treasurys, Cetera Investment Management, Goldman Locations: Israel

Israel responded with a declaration of war and a strong military response in the Gaza Strip, home to 2 million Palestinians. President Joe Biden ordered a U.S. naval carrier strike group to the region after pledging full support to Israel. Biden on Sunday spoke with Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, and pledged the full support of the U.S., including military assistance. “Geopolitical risks are back in focus amid the attack in Israel on Saturday,” said James Demmert, chief investment officer at Main Street Research. Key data on U.S. inflation is due to be released Wednesday with the producer price index and then Thursday with the consumer price index.

Persons: Joe Biden, Yoav Gallant, Biden, Benjamin Netanyahu, ”, James Demmert, Tony Welch, “ It’s, Dan Swan, Swan, ” Swan, “, Kevin McCarthy Organizations: Israeli, Main, Research, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Fed, McKinsey, “ Airlines, Rep Locations: Israel, Gaza, U.S, New York, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Washington

The job market continues to confound the expectations of economists with 336,000 jobs added in September, the Labor Department reported on Friday. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, remained unchanged at 3.8%. “We expect that this era of interest rate hikes is nearing its end, likely allowing the jobs market to level out. Thursday’s report on weekly unemployment claims came in largely in line with estimates and consistent with a steady labor market. “Labor market conditions have substantially normalized from their peak tightness in early 2022,” Lydia Boussour, EY senior economist, said ahead of the jobs report’s release.

Persons: ”, Steve Rick, ” Lydia Boussour, EY, Steven Kyle, Cornell University’s Charles H Organizations: Labor Department, Federal Reserve, TruStage, ADP, Labor, Cornell University’s, Dyson, Applied Economics, Management, United Auto Workers

Employers added only 89,000 jobs in September, well below expectations, private payroll firm ADP said on Wednesday. "We are seeing a steepening decline in jobs this month," said Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP. The report is the second to come this week on the health of the job market. On Tuesday, the Labor Department issued its report on job openings for August, with a surprising 9.6 million jobs available. While the job market has slowed in 2023, it still remains tight by historical standards.

Persons: Nela Richardson, ”, Lightcast, Rachel Sederberg, Julia Pollak, José Torres Organizations: ADP, Federal Reserve, Labor Department, Interactive Brokers

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