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MIT economist warns AI infrastructure investments may not meet investor profit expectations. Only 5% of jobs are likely to be significantly impacted by AI in the next decade, according to the economist. That's according to MIT Economist Daron Acemoglu, who told Bloomberg in an interview that the hype surrounding AI may not meet its lofty expectations. The most optimistic scenario, according to Acemoglue, is that AI hype cools and some applications of the technology take hold. In such a scenario, investors and tech executives would become disenchanted with AI, leading to a "AI spring followed by AI winter."
Persons: MIT's Daron Acemoglu, , Daron Acemoglu, Acemoglu, Acemoglue Organizations: Bloomberg, Service, MIT, Microsoft, Technology
Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty ImagesFed up with China's employment situation, young people on the mainland are retreating to the countryside. China's youth unemployment rate in August hit a new record of 18.8%, the highest since the new system of record-keeping began in December. Young Chinese transplanting rice seedlings in a field. Vcg | Visual China Group | Getty ImagesBut China's young "retirees" have pushed back against criticism that they are too picky or have given up. Such accusations, while unfair, are understandable in Chinese societal culture and context, said Hang Seng Bank China's Wang.
Persons: Gen, Wenzi Dada, Chung Chi, Chung Chi Nien, That's, Chung, Dan Wang, Wang, Keyu Jin, Wenzi, Gen Z Organizations: Visual China, Getty, CNBC, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hang Seng Bank, London School of Economics, Hang Seng Locations: Chongqing, China, Guizhou, Wenzi, Yunnan, Sichuan —, Shanghai, Hang Seng Bank China
Shigeru Ishiba, the man set to become the next leader of Japan, has made a career as a political outsider and opponent of party orthodoxy. However, some experts doubt that the former defense minister will manage to govern as such. The election ultimately came down to a runoff in which Ishiba defeated economic security minister Sanae Takaichi, who presented herself as the more Abenomics-aligned candidate. Japan's parliament is expected to formally vote Ishiba into the role Tuesday. He also reportedly suggested he would follow Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's approach of trying to pull Japan out of years of deflationary pressures.
Persons: Shigeru Ishiba, Shinzo Abe, Abe, Tobias Harris, Ishiba, Sanae Takaichi, he's, Sayuri Shirai, Takaichi, there's, Fumio, Shirai Organizations: Liberal Democratic Party, Bank of, LDP, Japan Foresight, Keio University Locations: Tokyo, Japan, Abenomics
Tourists visit an ancient city gate in Beijing, China ahead of National Day. The stock market may be in the midst of one of its most remarkable turnarounds, but economists say reversing China’s economic downturn will require much more work. “Stimulating the stock market doesn’t really do much for the real economy in China. Very few people invest in the stock market compared to other major markets,” said Logan Wright, director of China markets research at Rhodium Group. Property woesThe outlook for the real estate industry, which makes up about a quarter of the Chinese economy and 70% of household wealth, remains dim.
Persons: Japan’s “, Xi Jinping, Xi, Xu Tianchen, Hong, David Tepper, , Logan Wright, Wright, There’s, ” Wright, , hasn’t, Alfred Wu, Lee Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Economist Intelligence Unit, Reuters, Shenzhen bourses, Securities Times, Tourists, Management, CNBC, Barclays, Communist Party, Lee Kuan Yew, of Public, National University of Singapore Locations: Hong Kong, China, People’s Republic, United States, Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, China’s, Xi’s
Angela Weiss | AFP | Getty ImagesAs she unveiled her most detailed economic plan yet this week, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris pledged to fight price gouging in order to rein in voters' grocery costs. Although Harris released more detail Wednesday as part of her 82-page economic plan, it's still unclear what price hikes her administration would see as illegal "price gouging." Generally, Republicans support fewer economic regulations, although Trump has suggested limiting food imports as a way to lower grocery prices. What is price gouging? Thirty-seven U.S. states already have laws that forbid price gouging in emergencies.
Persons: Kamala Harris, Doug Emhoff, Angela Weiss, Donald Trump, Harris, it's, Walz, Trump, YouGov, Rakeen Mabud, Mabud, Mario Tama, markups, , Jerome Powell —, Sarah Gallo, Brian Cornell, Jharonne Martis, Brandon Bell, Kroger, Arun Sundaram, Sundaram, JBS, Joe Raedle Organizations: Democratic, AFP, Getty, Trump, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Voters, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas, Consumer Brands Association, Federal Trade, Department of, Kroger, Procter, Gamble, Albertsons, Federal Trade Commission, CFRA Research, Pilgrim's Pride Corporation Locations: Coraopolis , Pennsylvania, Los Angeles , California, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Houston , Texas, Miami , Florida
New U.S. tariffs on $18 billion in Chinese goods take effect Friday as trade tensions intensify between the world’s two largest economies. For example, the U.S. imports almost no Chinese EVs, largely because of an existing 27.5% tariff that is now increasing to 100%. Lithium-ion batteries, however, are a different story, accounting for about $13 billion of the $18 billion in affected Chinese goods. Similarly, the U.S. has been increasing its Chinese imports of natural graphite, another crucial component of EVs. “Cheaper Chinese solars and cheaper Chinese EVs can actually take jobs away from a lot of manufacturers in, say, the West.
Persons: Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Trump, Chim Lee, ” Lee, Charles Benoit, “ that’s, Benoit, , Biden, Julie Kozack, Lee, it’s Organizations: Economist Intelligence Unit, Biden, China, European, Coalition for, Prosperous, International Monetary Fund, U.S Locations: U.S, Beijing, China, Asia, Southeast Asia, Mexico, Malaysia, Prosperous America
Signage at the New World Tower, which houses the headquarters of New World Development Co., in Hong Kong, China, on Thursday, Sept. 26, 2024. New World Developmen suspended trading of its shares in Hong Kong on Thursday morning. Shares of Hong Kong's New World Development surged following the resignation of Adrian Cheng, a member of the founding family. Hong Kong listed shares of the major development company traded 23% higher after trading resumed on Friday. New World's woes come as property pains continue to plague Hong Kong and mainland China.
Persons: Adrian Cheng, Cheng, Eric Ma Siu, Cheung, Alicia Garcia, Herrero, Hong Kong tycoons, China's Organizations: New, Hong, HK, Asia Pacific, CNBC, China's Locations: Hong Kong, China, Natixis, tycoons, Asia
Authorities "must work to halt the real estate market decline and spur a stable recovery," the readout said in Chinese, translated by CNBC. The readout said leaders called for strengthening fiscal and monetary policy support, and touched on a swath of issues from employment to the aging population. Just days after the U.S. cut interest rates, the People's Bank of China on Tuesday announced a slew of planned interest rate cuts and real estate support. This real estate policy is aiming at reducing its drag on the economy." Tempering growth expectationsThe meeting readout said China would "work hard to complete" the country's full-year economic targets.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Zhiwei Zhang, Stocks, Goldman Sachs, Yue Su, Zong Liang, Zong, Bruce Pang Organizations: Getty, CNBC, Communist Party, People's Bank of China, Economist Intelligence Unit, Bank of Locations: Yuexi County, Anqing, Anhui province, China, BEIJING, Hong Kong, U.S, Beijing, JLL
Read previewIn just a matter of months, Ukraine may no longer need pilots for its drone force, a special drone unit commander said recently. One Ukrainian company's AI drones have already been used on the battlefield to carry out autonomous strikes on Russian forces. Both sides in this conflict are using unmanned systems en masse and developing new countermeasures. MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty ImagesDiscussions around AI in drones and other weapons systems have been ongoing in recent years. The AI race in militaries has also led to international disputes about whether to impose regulations on how to develop and use AI weapons.
Persons: , Robert Brovdi, Brovdi, MAHMUD HAMS, Kathleen Kicks Organizations: Service, Business, MikeMareen, Getty, Pentagon Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Ukrainian, Israel, AFP
Mainly a print model, Zheng used to rake in 30,000 yuan ($4,230) a month when she began working two years ago. Some are virtually indistinguishable from the real thing, while others are inspired by the original design and offer morecolors or textures. The popularity of this product category is soaring as consumer confidence in China nears a historic low, according to analysts. Shoppers are sitting on the sidelines due to a combination of falling stock prices, capital flight and “tepid” wage growth, the economists said. A Hong Kong court ordered the liquidation of the Chinese property giant on on January 29.
Persons: Zheng Jiewen, Zheng, , , Louis Vuitton, Chanel, Laurel Gu, Lulu, dupes isn’t, Nomura, Xinxin, Greg Baker, Nicole Hal, “ I’ve, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, CNN, Prada, Reuters, Shoppers, Barclays, Hong, Getty, Goldman Locations: China, Hong Kong, Guangzhou, Shanghai, Asia, Japan, Chongqing, Beijing, AFP, Europe,
Protesters hold placards reading 'Abolish punishment for abortion' as they protest South Korean abortion laws in Gwanghwamun plaza in Seoul on July 7, 2018. efired/iStockphoto/Getty ImagesBy not passing abortion laws, the National Assembly is “not doing its job,” said Cho Hee-kyoung, a law professor at Hongik University in Seoul. Changing attitudes to abortionDespite the country previously having highly restrictive abortion laws, abortion has not historically been the lightning rod in South Korea that it has been in the United States. If overpopulation had once prompted the government to push abortions, South Korea was now dealing with the opposite problem. It is impossible to know the true number of abortions that take place each year in South Korea because the procedure is unregulated.
Persons: haven’t, It’s, Ed Jones, , , Cho Hee, ” Cho, Nayoung, Cho, Jung Yeon, Susanné Seong, “ They’ve, Charlie Neibergall, ” Nayoung, SeongJoon Cho, Yoon Suk, she’d Organizations: Seoul CNN, vlogger, Seoul National Police, South Korean, YouTube, CNN, Getty, National Assembly, Hongik University, country’s Ministry, Justice, Health and Welfare Ministry, Health, Ministry, Welfare Ministry, World Bank, South Korea’s Institute for Health, Social Affairs, Human Rights Watch, Korea, Pharmaceutical Affairs, Supreme, Ministry of Food and Drug Safety, South, Bloomberg, Organization for Economic Cooperation, Development, HRW, Police Locations: Seoul, South Korea, Korean, Gwanghwamun, AFP, South, efired, , United States, Jusarang, Ames , Iowa, Canadian, Korea
Read previewFederal workers in Washington, DC, still have flexibility about where they work, and JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon isn't impressed. In the middle of an answer, Dimon added: "By the way, I'd also make Washington, DC, go back to work. Last year, the Biden Administration pushed for federal employees to return to in-person office work. Many federal workers have indeed returned to the office for at least part of the week. He also said, however, that employees who don't like their RTO policy can find jobs elsewhere, according to The Economist.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon isn't, Dimon, Jeffrey Goldberg, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, I'd, Andy Jassy, CBRE Organizations: Service, JPMorgan Chase, The, Business, JP, JPMorgan, Amazon, Biden Administration, Protection Agency, Federal News Network, Department of, Treasury, Department of the, Management, Futures Trading Commission Locations: Washington , DC, Washington, DC
The Fed's big rate cut won't stop a recession, economist David Rosenberg says. Rosenberg's bearish call comes one day after the Federal Reserve delivered a jumbo 50 basis point interest rate cut, the Fed's first rate cut since 2020. AdvertisementBut Rosenberg isn't backing down, likening 2024 to 2007, right before the economy slowed and entered a painful recession. He added: "Half the country is in recession right now when we apply data science to the commentary." AdvertisementAs for the soaring stock market, Rosenberg says investors should heed the warning signs coming out of the bond market.
Persons: David Rosenberg, He's, Rosenberg, , Rosenberg's Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, BLS
Read previewOn Monday, Amazon mandated corporate workers return to the office five days a week beginning January 2nd. AdvertisementHere's a list, in alphabetical order, of major companies requiring employees to return to offices. BlackRockLast year, BlackRock mandated employees return to the office four days a week. MetaMeta updated its remote work policies in September 2023, requiring employees to head into the office three days a week. AdvertisementWalmartAlong with slashing hundreds of jobs, Walmart also asked previously remote employees in the US to move to offices.
Persons: , Goldman Sachs, Andy Jassy, We've, Jassy, Insider's Ashley Stewart, It's, Apple's, Tim Cook, Rob Goldstein, Caroline Heller, Chipotle, Bob Iger, Iger, signees, David Solomon, Fortune, Fiona Cicconi, Arvind Krishna, Jamie Dimon, Redfin, Glenn Kelman, Salesforce Salesforce, Marc Benioff, Howard Schultz, Schultz, Tesla, Elon Musk, nodded, Musk, X, Yao Yue, Yue, Dara Khosrowshahi Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Amazon, Apple, BlackRock, Hudson, Bloomberg, Citigroup Citigroup, HSBC Holding Plc, Barclays, Citigroup, Reuters, Disney, The Washington Post, CNBC, Google, San Francisco Bay Area, IBM IBM, IBM, Meta Meta, Frisco, San Francisco Standard, Engineers, Starbucks, Elon, Twitter, National Labor Relations, Walmart, Street Journal Locations: Seattle, New York City, San Francisco Bay, San Francisco, Dallas , Atlanta, Toronto, Arkansas, New Jersey
Local governments in China are still building highways, bridges and railways, as pictured here in Jiangxi province on Sept. 6, 2024. That's cutting significantly into local government revenue, especially at the district and county level, according to S&P Global Ratings analysts. watch now"Macroeconomic headwinds continue to hinder the revenue-generating power of China's local governments, particularly as related to taxes and land sales," she said. Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, and Zhejiang — some of China's top provinces in tax and non-tax revenue generation — see non-tax revenue growth exceeding 15% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2024, S&P's Huang said. China's national taxation administration in June acknowledged some local governments had issued such notices but said they were routine measures "in line with law and regulations."
Persons: Huang, P's Huang, Camille Boullenois, Laura Li, Morgan Stanley, Chetan Ahya, Robin Xing Organizations: Getty, BEIJING, Global, CNBC, NingBo BoHui Chemical Technology Locations: China, Jiangxi, Beijing, Zhejiang, NingBo, Jiangsu, Shandong, Shanghai, Asia
Economists have long called for an overhaul of the nation's retirement age laws, currently among the world's lowest, which was set in an era of lower life expectancies. Raising the retirement age would help ease local governments' pension pool cash crunch, Sheana Yue, an economist from Oxford Economics said. Still, "more needs to be done to improve retirement adequacy," Maybank's Tay said, while stating that China needs a stronger pension plan and diversified investment avenues to ensure sustainable retirement savings. China's Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has added a few tools for citizens to check their indicated retirement age on its website and mobile app. China may roll out "another round of delay in the late 2030s, especially if China's pension fund balance is tight," Xu cautioned.
Persons: Erica Tay, Tay, Bruce Pang, Tianchen Xu, Xu, Yue, Maybank's Tay Organizations: Getty, Maybank Investment Banking Group, CNBC, Economist Intelligence Unit, Oxford Economics, Academy of Social Sciences, China's Ministry of Human Resources, Social Security Locations: Fuyang, China, JLL, Beijing
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailThe U.S. economy is not in a recession right now, says New Century's Claudia SahmClaudia Sahm, former Fed economist and New Century Advisors chief economist, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the economist's namesake rule, triggers for the recession, and much more.
Persons: Claudia Sahm Claudia Sahm Organizations: New Century Advisors
Go to newsletter preferencesSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewMark Cuban has warned that Trump's plan to impose sweeping tariffs on US imports would burden even tiny businesses with expensive, arduous compliance. Related storiesHe was critical of Trump's tariffs on China during his time in the White House and has slammed the Republican candidate's threat of more of the same. "Tariffs are the worst possible incentive for all but a few products," he said, adding that they "almost always" cost consumers more money. Tariff pain and small business woePaul Krugman has been vocally against plans for fresh tariffs if Trump wins in November.
Persons: , Cuban, Elon Musk's, Grok, Trump, He's, Kamala Harris, Paul Krugman, what's, Kevin O'Leary Organizations: Service, Business, Cuban, Trump, Republican, Dallas Mavericks, Yahoo, White, Democratic, Getty Locations: Cuban, China, Wisconsin
Concerns about the use of cryptocurrencies for illegal activity resulted in an effective ban on crypto mining and transactions. After a massive public outcry at the end of 2021, mining companies in Kazakhstan were effectively cut off from the grid. Today, the US makes up about 40% of the global hashrate — up from 17% during China's 2021 peak — making America the biggest hub for bitcoin mining. However, in recent years, bitcoin mining has become increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of private companies. Given how much energy bitcoin mining consumes, it's worth questioning whether its presence in the US is really worth the trade-off.
Persons: Xi Jinping, Zoe Liu, hasn't, pushback, haven't, Jeremy Fisher, Fisher, Gladys Anderson, Kelley Sayre, Stephanie Marsh, Marsh, Gavin Newsom, would've, Donald Trump, Trump, Satoshi Nakamoto, Saifedean Ammous, Cheyanne Diehl, wasn't, Biden, Joe Biden, Liu Pengyu, America Organizations: Council, Foreign Relations, Mining, Cambridge, Goodyear, Sierra, Environmental, New York Times, Tech, Gov, Securities and Exchange Commission, July's Bitcoin, SEC, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, Nasdaq, Embassy, EV, Sierra Club, City Council, Digital Locations: China, Kazakhstan, America, Utah, West Virginia, Akron , Ohio, Rockdale , Texas, Murphy , North Carolina, Massillon , Ohio, Bono , Arkansas, Vilonia , Arkansas, Akron, California, Nashville, Massillon, Ohio, Chinese, Massillon's City, In Arkansas, Wyoming, Washington, Harrison , Arkansas
Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist of JPMorgan Securities, listens during a Bloomberg Television interview in New York on March 6, 2018. The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates by 50 basis points at its September meeting, according to JPMorgan's Michael Feroli. "We think there's a good case for hurrying up in their pace of rate cuts." "While inflation is still a little above target, unemployment is probably getting a little above what they think is consistent with full employment. This follows the unemployment rate inching higher to 4.3% in July, triggering a recession indicator known as the Sahm Rule.
Persons: Michael Feroli, JPMorgan's Michael Feroli, CNBC's, you've, Feroli Organizations: JPMorgan Securities, Bloomberg Television, Federal Locations: New York
The Trump policy that freaks out economists the most
  + stars: | 2024-09-05 | by ( Matt Egan | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +9 min
New York CNN —Former President Donald Trump wants to spend trillions of dollars on tax cuts. “It’s enormously protectionist and terrible economic policy,” said Holtz-Eakin, who served as an economic adviser to former President George H.W. The cost of the Trump tax cutsTrump has called for extending his signature 2017 tax cuts, which expire next year if no action is taken by Congress. Trump has argued that extending the tax cuts will boost the economy, create jobs and help families. The Trump campaign has not detailed significant spending cuts or tax hikes to offset these tax cuts.
Persons: Donald Trump, Trump, Goldman Sachs, Kamala Harris, Goldman, , ” David Kelly, Kelly, “ It’s, , ’ Trump, Douglas Holtz, Eakin, Holtz, George H.W, Bush, GOP Sen, John McCain, Mark Zandi, ” Zandi, Karoline Leavitt, they’ll, ” Leavitt, Trump’s, ” Harris, “ Donald Trump, ” Brian Nelson, Harris, Kimberly Clausing, Mary Lovely, ” Trump, Joe Biden, Penn, Penn Wharton, The Trump, CNN’s Katie Lobosco Organizations: New, New York CNN, Asset Management, CNN, America, New York Economic Club, American, GOP, Moody’s, Trump, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Peterson Institute, US Customs, Louis Federal Reserve, Biden, Congress, Princeton University, University of Chicago, Harvard University, US Treasury Department, Penn Wharton Model, Social Security Locations: New York, United States, China, America
CNN —The US economy appears to be on a knife’s edge, and Friday’s jobs report will be the deciding factor as to the next direction. Economists are expecting that the August report should reaffirm that the labor market is merely cooling versus outright weakening. Inflation had cooled, and the labor market was rolling right along and doing its part to keep consumers spending and the economy churning. Friday’s jobs report should provide further reassurance that the labor market is merely softening and not collapsing, economists predict. “It would be a mistake to define the labor market as being excessively weak at this stage.”Instead, the signals indicate that the labor market has moved from being extremely strong and into better balance, she said.
Persons: ” Tuan Nguyen, , ” Karin Kimbrough, , ” Oliver Allen, ” Allen, , Andrew Challenger, Nick Bunker, Pantheon’s Allen, Beryl “, Mike Skordeles Organizations: CNN, RSM, Federal, LinkedIn, Labor, Department of Labor, “ Companies, Pantheon Macroeconomics, BLS, Employers, ADP, Challenger, Technology, , North America, Bank of America Locations: US, Michigan, Texas
Read previewThe labor market is trending in the wrong direction, but it might not be time to sound the alarm just yet. The unemployment rate has risen for four consecutive months and at 4.3%, it's the highest it's been in nearly three years. However, there are some reasons it might be too soon to freak out about the labor market. AdvertisementSatyam Panday, chief US economist for S&P Global Ratings, said in a note published on August 6 that the slowing labor market appears to suggest a "normalization" of a previously red-hot labor market, rather than an "economy that's about to slip into a recession." The labor market might get worseTo be sure, there are plenty of reasons to remain concerned about the state of the labor market.
Persons: , there's, it's, Goldman Sachs, David Mericle, Manuel Abecasis, they've, It's, Goldman Sachs that's, Satyam Panday, Michael Gapen, JP Morgan, Claudia Sahm Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Department, Federal, Satyam, Bank of America, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, New Century Advisors Locations: US
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWe forecast a recession which will slow inflation: Piper Sandler's Nancy LazarNancy Lazar, Piper Sandler global chief economist, joins 'Money Movers' to discuss whether Tuesday's economic data changes any of the economists' forecasts, whether the Federal Reserve has room to focus on its employment mandate, and more.
Persons: Piper Sandler's Nancy Lazar Nancy Lazar, Piper Sandler Organizations: Federal Reserve
Of the billionaires on the 2023 Forbes 400 list — the 400 richest people in the United States — 70% are basically self-made. In 1982, only 40% of the Forbes 400 had started their own business; the majority were simply scions of inherited wealth. The Forbes 400, however, is the extreme right tail of the curve. But you're not sniffing the Forbes 400 list, where the bidding starts at about $3 billion. I don't think VCs are deliberately picking founders they think are unreliable, although sometimes it seems like it.
Persons: Raj Chetty, That's, Chamath Palihapitiya, Palihapitiya, Josh Wolfe, Wolfe, Elon Musk, Thiel, Jeff Bezos, we're, Sam Bankman, Andreessen Horowitz, A16z, Adam Neumann, Neumann, WeWork, Marc Andreessen, Ben Horowitz, Horowitz, they've, Benchmark's Gurley, Gurley, Nate Silver Organizations: Forbes, United States —, Social Capital, Burger, Lux, VCs, New York Times, Penguin Press, Penguin Publishing, Penguin Random Locations: United States, America, Sri Lanka, Canada, Coney, Israeli, Silicon, Canyon Point , Utah
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