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So that's what the bank did, listing 10 signals that they found to be most reliable, as well as the best investing approach for a market peak. The index has reached 110 within the six months preceding every market peak since July 1990, and in January 2024, it reached 111. ValuationElevated stock valuations are also telling of a market peak, but Bank of America's indicators relating to P/E ratios aren't currently triggered. A third macroeconomic indicator, Bank of America's Credit Stress Indicator (CSI), is not triggered. It often drops below 0.25 within six months of a market peak, but sits at 0.39.
Persons: , Savita Subramanian, America quantifies Organizations: Service, Bank of America, Business, Conference, Bank of America Investor, Bank, America, The Conference Board, SSI, Wall Street, of America's, CSI Locations: today's
Acting Secretary of Labor Julie Su is hitting the road — and wants good jobs to follow. Su is bringing the Department of Labor's "Good Jobs Principles" — a national framework for better working conditions and positions — across the country. Related storiesAs part of the tour kickoff, Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego will also announce the city's commitment to the Good Jobs Principles. It's the DOL's latest attempt at promoting the idea of "good jobs," and making them more widespread. So it's embedding equity in the way that we're creating these jobs, " Teresa Acuna, the senior policy advisor and deputy director of the Good Jobs Initiative, said.
Persons: Labor Julie Su, Su, Biden, Kate Gallego, Teresa Acuna, Acuna, we're Organizations: Service, Labor, of, Business, Department of Labor, Biden Administration, Conference, Phoenix, Good Jobs Initiative Locations: Phoenix, Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Michigan
A slew of big-box retailers have lowered prices on items in recent weeks, citing moderating inflation and frugal customers. Recent economic data has also suggested that inflation is cooling, after data earlier this year spurred fears that progress had stalled. Yet Americans don’t seem convinced that inflation is moderating or that the economy is as healthy as indicators suggest. Mortgage rates have declined in recent weeks but remain near 7%. Target announced plans to cut prices on thousands of consumer basics as inflation cuts into household budgets.
Persons: aren’t, Charles Schwab’s, , James Kostulias, Charles Schwab, Joe Raedle, Jerome Powell, Powell, Neel Kashkari, “ I’m, Schumer, Chuck Schumer, General Merrick Garland, , Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders, Dick Durbin, Scott Sheffield, Read, Matt Egan, Mat Ishbia, homebuyers, refinances Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Walmart, Target, Ikea, Aldi, CPI, “ Traders, Minneapolis Federal, CNBC, Democrats, Justice Department, Oil, Big Oil, DOJ, Big, Federal Trade Commission, United Wholesale Mortgage, Phoenix Suns NBA Locations: New York, Miami , Florida, Minneapolis, Texas, Sens
The U.S. economy has been an enigma over the past few years. The job market is booming, and consumers are still spending, which is usually a sign of optimism. But if you ask Americans, many will tell you that they feel bad about the economy and are unhappy about President Biden’s economic record. And while a measure of sentiment produced by the Conference Board improved in May, the survey showed that expectations remained shaky. More than half of registered voters in six battleground states rated the economy as “poor” in a recent poll by The New York Times, The Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College.
Persons: Biden’s Organizations: University of Michigan, Conference Board, The New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer, Siena College, Federal Reserve Locations: U.S
Overall job satisfaction among U.S. employees increased a modest 0.4 percentage points in 2023 from the year prior, according to the Conference Board's annual Job Satisfaction survey released this month. He cited the group's results a year before, when job satisfaction was up overall and for every subcategory. 2023 marks the 13th consecutive year that U.S. job satisfaction climbed incrementally, according to the Conference Board's reporting. Overall job happiness could be a product of workers getting more raises, experiencing more job stability or receiving more benefits, he says. More than 65% of hybrid workers expressed overall job satisfaction, topping the 64% of fully remote and 60% of fully in-person workers who said the same, per the Conference Board's study.
Persons: Allen Schweyer, Schweyer, Julia Pollak, Pollak, you've, Claudia Goldin's Organizations: Conference, Conference Board
Signage is seen outside of a Walgreens, owned by the Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc., in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., November 26, 2021. Walgreens announced Wednesday it would continue to cut prices on some 1,300 items — the latest company to pivot to value amid signs U.S. consumers are experiencing spending fatigue. "Walgreens understands our customers are under financial strain and struggle to purchase everyday essentials," said Tracey D. Brown, EVP, President, Walgreens Retail & Chief Customer Officer. Lower-income consumers have been cutting back more substantially. Meanwhile, other areas of the economy more closely tied to wealthier consumers continue to outperform, especially travel.
Persons: Tracey D, Brown, we've, Ramon Laguarta, Jamie Baker Organizations: Walgreens, Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc, Walgreens Retail, Target, Walmart, Conference Board, PepsiCo, American Airlines, JPMorgan Locations: Manhattan , New York City, U.S
Analysts are expecting the Memorial Day weekend to usher in yet another summer of strong consumer spending on travel and other leisure activities. “We haven’t seen Memorial Day weekend travel numbers like these in almost 20 years,” Paula Twidale, senior vice president at AAA Travel, said in a release. Spending this summer will likely be a little softer than last year’s, they said, but still strong. The bank’s consumer travel survey showed that 72% of people said they’re planning to travel, with 36% saying they’ve already planned their trip. Even among respondents making less than $75,000 a year, more than 60% said they’re planning to travel this summer.
Persons: ” Paula Twidale, Royal Caribbean’s, ” David Tinsley, they’ve, Joelle, aren’t, Dogecoin, Shiba Inu “, Atsuko Sato, , Sato, ” Kabosu, Kabosu, Shiba, Loretta Mester, Neel Kashkari, Lisa Cook, Robin, John Williams, Raphael Bostic, Lorie Logan Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, Washington CNN —, Transportation Security Administration, AAA, AAA Travel, Bank of America Institute, Bank of America, Japan, Europe, New York Fed, Public Policy Research, Mizuho Financial, Federal, Global, Index, Board, HP, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Abercrombie, Fitch, Eagle Outfitters, Costco, Dell, Dollar, Hormel, US Commerce Department, US Labor Department, National Association of Realtors, China’s National Bureau of Statistics, Atlanta Fed Locations: Washington, Caribbean, South Korea, Switzerland, Colombia, Costa Rica, Canada, Mexico, Domestically , California, Florida, California, , Sakura, CAVA, Chewy, Burlington, Birkenstock, Nordstrom, Kohl’s
Consumer spending is slowing, and it's a warning shot for the US economy as it navigates the approach to a soft or a hard landing. Meanwhile, March retail sales were revised downward, with spending rising 0.6% instead of the initially reported 0.7%. The retail sales number was sluggish with a capital 'S,'" economist David Rosenberg said in a note this week. A hard landing has been postponed partly because of the strength of consumer spending in 2023, he wrote previously. The New York Fed sees a 50% chance that the economy will tip into recession by April 2025.
Persons: David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Primerica, Danielle DiMartino Booth, who's, Booth, Schwab, I've Organizations: Service, Business, Conference, New, Fed Locations: American, York
Gen Z is getting hit hard by inflation
  + stars: | 2024-05-12 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
For Gen Z, it was the Covid-19 pandemic. Why are we seeing that Gen Z is tapping into their credit more than their Millennial counterparts 10 years ago? Most Gen Z consumers are not homeowners. And so I think that’s been a big cause of what’s been driving a lot of that financial strain that Gen Z consumers have seen. The key is to not use the personal loans to pay off credit card debt and then run your credit card bills right back up after you do that.
Persons: TransUnion, Zers, Millennials, Gen Zers, Bell, Charlie Wise, we’ve, haven’t, You’re, Rishi Sunak, Hanna Ziady, Anna Cooban, Philip Jefferson, Loretta Mester, Jack, Neel Kashkari Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Gross, Office, National Statistics, Bank of England, P, Federal, Cleveland Fed, Depot, US Labor Department, Cisco Systems, US Commerce Department, National Association of Home Builders, Index, Minneapolis, Walmart, Applied, Co, Baidu, Board Locations: New York, Kingdom, Wells Fargo
Plenty of companies are reining in their rhetoric and in some cases action on issues such as sustainability and diversity. Over the past decade, many corporations have at least professed to take a more active role in social issues, under pressure from their customers and, more importantly, employees. After last year's Bud Light debacle, which was a real blow to its business, executives fear they'll be the next target of some anti-woke outcry. For the fourth quarter of 2020, 131 companies mentioned ESG, and 34 mentioned DEI or diversity and inclusion. This may be a great un-wokening, but maybe corporate America was actually never that committed to the idea in the first place.
Persons: Paul Polman, It's, Naomi Wheeless, Eventbrite, Donald Trump, Larry Fink, George Floyd's, ESG, Andrew Jones, there's, Bud Light, influencer Dylan Mulvaney, haven't, Philip Mirvis, Bud, they'll, they'd, Jones, it's, Fink, FactSet, — we're, wasn't, Alison Taylor, University's, we've, Roe, Wade, Taylor, isn't, Dylan Mulvaney, Bud Light's, Kenneth Pucker, Emily Stewart Organizations: Unilever, Unilever wasn't, Unilever isn't, Companies, Business, Sporting Goods, Conference Board's ESG, Morningstar, Babson, AIG, Amazon, ExxonMobil, University's Stern School of Business, Anheuser, Busch, Fletcher School, Tufts University Locations: Plenty, America, ESG, New, Charlottesville
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailRoger Ferguson on new CEO survey: Recession concerns have 'faded drastically'Roger Ferguson, The Business Council vice chairman, The Conference Board trustee and former Federal Reserve vice chairman, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the results of the 'Conference Board Measure of CEO Confidence' survey, the increase in cautious optimism among CEOs, top concerns facing executives, the Fed's inflation fight, and more.
Persons: Roger Ferguson Organizations: The Business, Federal Reserve
A Piper Sandler recession indicator says an economic downturn could be here. This indicator typically precedes official NBER recession announcements by about four months. But Chief Investment Strategist Michael Kantrowitz says stocks should still rise in the near-term. Popular recession indicators like the Treasury yield curve and The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index have been signaling for over a year now that a downturn is ahead. Last week, a lesser-known gauge — with just as impressive a track record — joined their ranks in warning of trouble ahead for the US economy.
Persons: Piper Sandler, Michael Kantrowitz, , Piper Organizations: Conference, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Business
The latest macro data is sending mixed signals, reflecting both a "no landing" and a "soft landing," Morgan Stanley said. The bank recommends defensive sectors, including consumer staples, to navigate volatility. AdvertisementInvestors should ramp up investments in defensive stock sectors like consumer staples and utilities as the latest data sends mixed signals about the economy, Morgan Stanley says. Based on this rationale, Wilson suggests opting for robust cyclical names in a no-landing scenario and premium growth stocks in a soft landing. It also provides some more defensiveness to portfolios as a hedge amid uncertain/unpredictable macro data," they said.
Persons: Morgan Stanley, , Michael Wilson, Wilson, nonfarm, Staples, Jerome Powell Organizations: Service, Conference, Reserve Locations: today's
A coming recession could end up sparking a "violent correction" in stocks, Gary Shilling told BI. The top forecaster pointed to warning signs of a downturn, such as a weaker job market. AdvertisementInvestors should be prepared for a recession with the potential to send the stock market plummeting this year, according to top forecaster Gary Shilling. That could be the final blow to the stock market rally fueled by investor overconfidence, causing stocks to drop by as much as 30%, Shilling said. Related storiesThe job market, for one, is "obviously slipping" as firms pull back on hiring, Shilling said.
Persons: Gary Shilling, , overconfidence, Shilling, we've, we're Organizations: Service, Business, Wall, Employers, San Francisco, Treasury
The US economic expansion should continue in the months ahead, assuming there are no major external shocks, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. Consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the US economy, is still positive, and job gains have been robust. AdvertisementDespite his generally upbeat outlook, however, Stiglitz is concerned about a number of risks. 4 economic risks to watchThe first is that economic slowdowns happening elsewhere could seep into the US. Congress could shut down again, we might not get some of the necessary bills that we need to continue government," Stiglitz said.
Persons: Joseph Stiglitz, we've, Stiglitz, Brent, Mike Johnson, Trump, Putin Organizations: Service, Columbia University, Conference, Business, Republican Locations: Europe, China, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Iran, Ukraine, Russia, Taiwan, Eastern Europe
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailHere's what matters most to the Fed when it comes to policy decisionsJeanna Smialek, Federal Reserve and Economy Reporter at The New York Times, and Steve Odland, President and CEO of the Conference Board, discuss the upcoming Fed decision.
Persons: Jeanna Smialek, Steve Odland Organizations: Federal Reserve, The New York Times, Conference Board
Employee compensation costs jumped more than expected to start the year, providing another danger sign about persistent inflation, while consumer confidence hit its lowest level in nearly two years. The employment cost index, which measures worker salaries and benefits, gained 1.2% in the first quarter, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The Fed watches the ECI as a significant measure of underlying inflation pressures. State and local government workers saw their compensation costs rise 4.8%, down just narrowly from the same period in 2023. The Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 97, a decline of 6.1 points that was below the Wall Street estimate for 103.5.
Persons: Dow Jones, Dana Peterson, Peterson Organizations: Labor Department, Dow, Fed, Committee, Conference Locations: State
Some of America's best-known corporations are saying their consumers are being pinched by inflation as prices continue rising. "Consumers continue[d] to be even more discriminating with every dollar that they spend as they faced elevated prices in their day-to-day spending." The consumer price index — a broad basket of goods and services — rose at an annual rate of 3.5% in March compared with the same month a year ago. And that tenacious 3.5% annual growth is souring economic sentiment: Even after a period of runaway inflation, prices don't actually fall. That's a problem for McDonald's and a host of other firms serving customers who are feeling sticker shock.
Persons: Chris Kempczinski Organizations: Federal Reserve, Consumers, Conference Board, Fed
What is divestment? And does it work?
  + stars: | 2024-04-28 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com   time to read: +8 min
From Princeton University in New Jersey to the University of Southern California in Los Angeles, the same chant can be heard: “Disclose! The specifics of student protesters’ divestment demands vary in scope from school to school. Other students, like those at Cornell University and Yale, are asking their schools to stop investing in weapons manufacturers. Other common threads include demanding universities disclose their investments, sever academic ties with Israeli universities and support a ceasefire in Gaza. Proponents for divestment counter that its value lies in raising awareness and stigmatizing partnerships with targeted regimes or industries.
Persons: , ” Israel, Witold Henisz, Henisz, , Nicholas Dirks, ” Dirks, Dirks, “ They’ll, Anna Cooban, Michelle Bowman, Eli Lilly, Estee Lauder, Jerome Powell Organizations: New, New York CNN, Palestinian, Princeton University, University of Southern, Columbia University Apartheid, Columbia, Cornell University and Yale, Research, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, CNN, University of California, Columbia’s Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Dallas Fed, Samsung, AMD, Starbucks, Benz Group, Volkswagen, PayPal, adidas, Diamondback Energy, Restaurant Brands, Pinterest, Caesars Entertainment, PMI, Conference Board, Mastercard, Qualcomm, Pfizer, Marriott, eBay, US Commerce Department, Apple, Novo Nordisk, Shell, ConocoPhillips, Cigna, Universal Music Group, Hershey, US Labor Department Locations: New York, New Jersey, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, Columbia, Palestine, Israel, Gaza, South Africa, Berkeley, United States, Europe, DoorDash
Read previewLooking at the headline numbers, the US labor market is booming. OVOM Research/Bullandbearprofits.comWolfenbarger's views in contextOther market observers have started to warn of a weakening labor market in recent months. Ian Shepherdson, the chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, shared several indicators in a client note earlier this month warning of a job market slowdown ahead. Pantheon MacroeconomicsBut whether the labor market actually weakens materially remains to be seen. AdvertisementIf Wolfenbarger is right and the labor market falls apart in short order, it could catch an exceptionally bullish market off guard.
Persons: , Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, Louis, Ian Shepherdson, Shepherdson, There's Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Business, Labor Statistics, Fed, Conference, Treasury, OVOM, Pantheon, National Federation of Independent
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailConsumers are really moving more to the value sector, says BCI Brands' Manny ChiricooDana Peterson, The Conference Board chief economist, and Manny Chirico, chair of BCI Brands, join CNBC's 'Squawk Box' to discuss the latest number in retail sales, the state of the consumer, and more.
Persons: Manny Chiricoo Dana Peterson, Manny Chirico Organizations: Consumers, BCI Brands, The Conference Board
Five recession indicators that were flashing a warning sign about the economy have since retreated. AdvertisementVarious economic indicators that suggested a recession was imminent not too long ago have since retreated, according to Ned Davis Research. That means investors probably don't have to worry about an economic recession occurring any time soon. AdvertisementThese are the five recession indicators that are no longer flashing red as the resilient US economy continues to power forward. In February, the LEI ticked up 0.1% and the Conference Board no longer expects a recession," Kalish said.
Persons: Ned Davis, Joseph Kalish, Kalish, Board's LEI, LEI Organizations: Ned Davis Research, NDR, Gross, GDI, Conference Board
Is the Fed's 2% inflation target still a realistic goal?
  + stars: | 2024-04-12 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com   time to read: 1 min
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIs the Fed's 2% inflation target still a realistic goal? Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, and Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board, debate the outlook for inflation and how to navigate a non-2% world.
Persons: Daniel Morris, Dana Peterson Organizations: Asset Management, Conference Board
New York CNN —Almost every month, economists expect the hot US labor market to start showing signs of exhaustion. The booming labor market has to run out of gas eventually, right? Enjoy it while it lastsHistorically speaking, there’s only so long a really good labor market can last until, for instance, a recession or tighter financial conditions disrupt it. Taken together, that could mean the life expectancy of the current labor market isn’t very long. One big reason why the labor market continues to defy expectations is the result of a surge in immigration over the past year.
Persons: February’s, Jefferies, Thomas Simons “, ” “, Simons, Will Baltrus, That’s, ” Dante DeAntonio Organizations: New, New York CNN, Conference, Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Brookings, Moody’s Locations: New York
About 45% of changes to S&P 500 analysts' earnings estimates are upgrades, as shown in the chart below, down from 50% in early 2023. AdvertisementSociete GeneraleHistorically, analyst optimism has been a good indicator for the economy's direction. Below is the S&P 500's year-over-year percentage change along with the analyst optimism measure. He says the S&P 500 is in a bubble fueled by AI optimism and could fall as much as around 60%. He sees potential downside of 39% for the S&P 500.
Persons: , Albert Edwards, Edwards, Powell's, Ed Yardeni, Let's, There's, Jeremy Grantham, David Rosenberg, Merrill Lynch Organizations: Service, Societe Generale, Business, Street, Nasdaq, Generale, Conference, Institute for Supply, subsiding, Fed, repo, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bears, Rosenberg Research, policymaking
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